JEFF BENTON
Wednesday's MLB winners ... 15 DIME: CARDINALS (Wainwright) over Dodgers ... NOTE: List Adam Wainwright as the starting pitcher for St. Louis. If Wainwright does not start, this play is VOID!
5 DIME: Angels-Indians OVER the total. ... NOTE: Both Jered Weaver (Angels) and Jeremy Sowers (Indians) must start this game, or this play is VOID!
Cardinals
Let’s see if these numbers blow you away like they did me:
The St. Louis Cardinals are 17-8 when Adam Wainwright pitches this year, including 10-1 on the road. Going back to last season, they’ve won more than 70 percent of his starts overall (38-16); they’re 25-10 in his last 35 starts on foreign turf; they’re 18-5 the last 23 times he’s pitched as an underdog; 9-0 in his last nine as a road pup; and when Wainwright faces quality competition, the Cardinals are virtually unbeatable, winning 24 of his last 27 starts against winning teams.
Impressed? Not as much as you will be after reading this: Over his last 10 starts, Wainwright has given up two earned runs or fewer … 10 times in a row! During this span, he’s posted a 1.34 ERA, allowing a total of 11 runs in 74 innings, including yielding exactly one home run! He hasn’t walked a batter in his last three trips to the mound (covering 20 2/3 innings); he’s 4-0 with a 1.24 ERA in his last four road starts; and it was just three weeks ago in St. Louis when he dominated the Dodgers 10-0, pitching eight scoreless innings. In fact, in his last three starts against the Dodgers spanning exactly two years, all Wainwright has done is give up a total of three runs in 24 innings (1.13 ERA).
So you’re probably wondering: How in the hell can Wainwright be an underdog tonight? Well, it’s because Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw is having a very nice year himself. However, the 21-year-old hasn’t exactly been dominant lately. He’s failed to make it out of the fifth inning in two of his last three outings, and the Dodgers have lost five straight games behind the kids. And even though Kershaw has been absolutely incredible at home this year (1.86 ERA), it hasn’t much mattered, as his record is just 3-3 at Dodger Stadium – and his team is just 7-6 in his 13 home starts.
Yes, Kershaw has enjoyed a lot of success against St. Louis in his brief career, giving up just three runs in three starts covering 21 innings. And yes, that includes eight shutout innings on July 29 in St. Louis. Yet despite that effort, the Dodgers STILL lost 3-2 in 15 innings, blowing 1-0 lead in the bottom of the ninth and a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the 11th.
Then again, losing to the Redbirds is something L.A. is very used to. Even after last night’s 7-3 victory, the Dodgers are still just 18-39 in the last 56 meetings and 4-9 the last 13 times they’ve hosted Pujols and Co.
Finally, before last night’s result, look at what these two teams had done in their previous 10 games: St. Louis was 9-1 (4-0 on the road), batting .326 as a team and had a 2.42 bullpen ERA. The Dodgers were 3-7 overall (0-4 at home), batting .238 as a team and had a 5.77 bullpen ERA.
I’m sorry, but there is just way too much to like about the Cardinals in this game, starting with Wainwright and ending with this very generous underdog price. St. Louis gets back on the winning track with a 4-1 victory.
Angels-Indians OVER the total
How Cleveland and Los Angeles stayed under the total last night was a miracle. First off, the score was 5-3 before the final out was recorded in the third inning. The teams combined for 25 hits, eight walks and one error. And both starters were out of the game by the 5 1/3 inning mark. So what happened? Well, the teams combined to leave a whopping 21 runners on base; they combined for three double plays; and individually, seven hitters left a total nine runners in scoring position with two outs.
In a nutshell: Neither squad could get a key hit, especially from the fourth inning on. Well, don’t expect that to happen again tonight. After all, when these teams met in Anaheim three weeks ago, they combined for 14, 13 and 12 runs in three games, with all three flying over the total. On top of that, the Angels – who are the most profitable “over” team in baseball – have stayed under the total in consecutive games just once since June 7! We’re talking a stretch of 63 games – or more than one-quarter of the season!
During this 63-game stretch, the “over” is 43-17-3 for the Angels, including 19-8-2 in their last 29 on the road, 16-6-1 in their last 23 games against the A.L. Central, and 18-5-2 in their last 24 on the road when the total is set at nine runs or higher! Then there’s Halos starter Jered Weaver. Not only is he coming off his ugliest outing of the season (eight runs allowed in 3 1/3 innings at Baltimre), but his team has now gone over the total in 10 of his last 11 starts overall, including five in a row on the road (where, by the way, Weaver now sports a 6.13 ERA). In fact, when Weaver starts on the road, the teams combine for an AVERAGE of 13 runs per game!
Yes, Indians starter Jeremy Sowers has been pitching better of late. But he still has an inflated 4.88 ERA and 1.46 WHIP for the season. And he hasn’t faced a team lately that’s hitting like the Angels (.292 team average on the road, including .289 against lefties; .316 overall team average over a 10-game stretch prior to last night).
Look for the scoreboard to light up big time by the lake. Take this one OVER the posted price.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-----------GL GUYS
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