Scott Rickenbach
7:05:00 PM OVER 9.5 RUNS,TORONTO BLUE JAYS (Richmond)
-vs- New York Yankees (Pettitte)
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 1* (regular play) OVER the total in Toronto @ 7:05 PM ET: Richmond vs Pettitte – After opening at a 10 this line dropped to a 9.5 and we might even start to see some books popping up with a 9 this afternoon! This is simply a fantastic value for over players because neither one of these pitchers deserve the respect they are getting in this match-up. This is simply NOT a good match-up for either hurler and, yes, even with Matsui and Jeter hurting (but listed as probable for tonight), we have no doubts that we should see plenty of offense in this one! The Blue Jays Scott Richmond made five starts last season and six starts so far this season and, so far, the young hurler has some respectable numbers in the books like a 4-1 record this season and a 3.58 ERA and a .254 BAA in his career. However, what one misses in just quickly glancing at numbers like this is that, while Richmond is very strong against right-handed hitters, he’s struggled against left-handed bats as they’ve pounded him at a .331 clip in his young career. Of course that’s bad news when facing the Yankees as they have four left-handed hitters and four switch-hitters on their current roster of position players. Indeed, it is quite likely that Richmond will face at least six left-handed batters and the three righties he will see are likely to include the dangerous bats of Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. Pitching at the Rogers Centre may not help much either! Richmond is 2-3 with a 4.24 ERA and a .287 BAA at home. He’s actually been better on the road in his young career! The good news for Richmond and Jays fans tonight is that Toronto should give the young hurler plenty of run support! The Blue Jays lead the majors in runs and batting average. They are also among the league leaders in home runs, on base percentage and slugging percentage. A key favoring them tonight is that they’re facing a southpaw. The Jays have crushed left-handers at a .327 clip this season. Part of the reason for this is that Toronto’s roster of position players includes just three left-handed sticks and only one of those, Adam Lind, is an everyday player that is in the lineup even against southpaws. So, Andy Pettitte of the Yankees will be facing a Blue Jays lineup that is loaded with right-handed pop. What is the significance of this? Note that Pettitte has a 1.52 WHIP against right-handed hitters this season compared to a 1.09 WHIP against left-handed bats. Last season, right-handed lumber pounded Pettitte to the tune of a .325 batting average. So, while he’s been very solid against left-handed bats last season and this year, Pettitte is going to face a righty-dominated lineup that is one of the most dangerous lineups in the league so far this season! This is not a good match-up for the Yankees southpaw. Also causing concern is the fact that Pettitte has struggled after starting the season with some impressive work. Note that in his last four outings he’s allowed 33 hits in 24.2 innings of work. Also, in his last three starts he’s been reached for at least four runs in every single start even though none of those outings lasted more than six innings for Pettitte. Coming into his last start, Pettitte had walked eight in his last two starts. He cut down on the walks but proceeded to give up four homers in his last start! Last night’s game stayed under but the lefty/righty bias here impacting both pitchers in this game should lead to runs aplenty in this one. The beauty of this is that we get fantastic line value because of the low ERA’s these two starters have registered so far this season! Play OVER the total in Toronto as a regular selection.
<!-- / message -->