Have you looked at the board tonight? I'd say about half the games are run lines of -150 or more. Some night's it's like that. But again, if it wins, who cares. I mean if a capper consistently gives out ML of -150 or higher that's one thing, but on a night were half the games are like that, I can't say it wasn't expected.
GINA
Wednesday, May 6th, 2009 8:00 p.m. est.
Orlando Magic (64-25) at Boston Celtics (66-24)
The Magic have won three straight versus the Celtics, including the last two in Beantown. Go with Orlando to play tough defense again tonight against Boston. The road team in this series has covered the spread in the last four meetings.
Orlando Magic +4
Wednesday, May 6th, 2009 7:10 p.m. est.
Cleveland Indians (10-17) at Boston Red Sox (17-10)
(R) Carl Pavano (1-3) vs. (R) Justin Masterson (2-1)
Go with the Boston Red Sox to grab their 10th straight home victory tonight agaiinst the Cleveland Indians. Boston has won ten of the last 12 meetings versus the Indians and five of the last 6 in Boston. Cleveland's right-haner Carl Pavano is 0-2 with a 24.75 ERA lifetime in Fenway
Boston Red Sox -185
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Wednesday, May 6th, 2009 8:00 p.m. est.
Orlando Magic (64-25) at Boston Celtics (66-24)
The Magic have won three straight versus the Celtics, including the last two in Beantown. Go with Orlando to play tough defense again tonight against Boston. The road team in this series has covered the spread in the last four meetings.
Orlando Magic +4
Wednesday, May 6th, 2009 7:10 p.m. est.
Cleveland Indians (10-17) at Boston Red Sox (17-10)
(R) Carl Pavano (1-3) vs. (R) Justin Masterson (2-1)
Go with the Boston Red Sox to grab their 10th straight home victory tonight agaiinst the Cleveland Indians. Boston has won ten of the last 12 meetings versus the Indians and five of the last 6 in Boston. Cleveland's right-haner Carl Pavano is 0-2 with a 24.75 ERA lifetime in Fenway
Boston Red Sox -185
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JOHNNY GUILD
Wednesday, May 6, 2009 10:30 PM EST.
Houston Rockets (58-31) at Los Angeles Lakers (69-19)
Look for Kobe and his crew to be more aggressive and bounce back. The LA Lakers will definitely accelerate the tempo. Yao Ming and his boys will struggle tonight with the speedy pace. Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 clashes in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles Lakers -10
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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 10:30 PM EST.
Houston Rockets (58-31) at Los Angeles Lakers (69-19)
Look for Kobe and his crew to be more aggressive and bounce back. The LA Lakers will definitely accelerate the tempo. Yao Ming and his boys will struggle tonight with the speedy pace. Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 clashes in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles Lakers -10
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baseballgod ... your right about tonight despite being a red sox fan ... JK however i see it all the time. many have your sox as there top play. its -200 at most books ! is it a good bet ? yes, but has zero value. if you lose you have to win 3 in row to get back on track. if they called their play on the runline i'd have more respect for them and their records. records of 20-5 ytd mean nothing to me when their -200 plays
My personal betting rule for baseball is that I never bet any favourite on the ML that is priced higher than -150. If I decide to look at a team that is laying more than -150, I'll either take them on the RL or I'll pass on it. I never lay more than -150 with any team. It's just risking too much at that point for too little if I were to go above -150 with MLB favourites on the ML.
Las Vegas Sports Advisors
4 Big Games on tap Tonight..
1.) Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes 25* NHL Power Play!
Take: Boston Bruins -120
2.) Atlanta @ Florida 7pm eastern 15* Gold Key Players Club Game of the night..
Take: Atlanta -145 Listing Lowe
3.)Milwaukee @ Cincinnati 7pm eastern MLb Line mismatch 10*
Take : Milwaukee -101
4 Big Games on tap Tonight..
1.) Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes 25* NHL Power Play!
Take: Boston Bruins -120
2.) Atlanta @ Florida 7pm eastern 15* Gold Key Players Club Game of the night..
Take: Atlanta -145 Listing Lowe
3.)Milwaukee @ Cincinnati 7pm eastern MLb Line mismatch 10*
Take : Milwaukee -101
Jake Timlin
Wednesday's Action
500♦ Orlando Magic
Take the Magic plus the points tonight in game two.
Yes in though the Magic almost let a 20 point lead get away on Sunday I just don’t see why the Celtics are a favorite tonight. I mean in order to almost loss a 28 points lead you first must be good enough to build a major lead right? Well the Magic are that good right now and in fact thanks to their game one win its Orlando who has now won the last three series games, including pair of outright wins in Boston dating back to the regular season. Plus, with the Magic having won their last 4 playoffs games while covering their last three it’s clear that Orlando is the better team here tonight. Meanwhile, minus a pair of key players the Celtics once dominating defense is gone as made evidence to the Bulls racking up 100 point games in round one and the Magic getting 42 points in the paint in game one. Flat out, while I don’t want to pass up on the points I don’t expect for the points to matter as I see Orlando winning outright to take a commanding 2-0 series lead before heading back to the Magic kingdom.
All Orlando!
100♦ Los Angeles Dodges -1 ½ Runs
Going for the modern day records of most consecutive win at home to start the season I look for the Dodgers to get lucky win #13 and do so in a blowout tonight. I mean thanks to the fact that the Dodgers will be playing the Nationals who are arguably the worst team in all of baseball I see nothing but a blowout for Los Angeles tonight. After all given that the Dodgers are leading the NL in runs scored per game while posting a team ERA of around 2 in their 12 homes games it’s easy to see why I expect a blowout. Meanwhile, with Los Angeles having won 11 of the past 15 series meetings there is really no going wrong with the Dodgers minus the Run Line here tonight.
All Los Angeles!
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-----------GL GUYS
Wednesday's Action
500♦ Orlando Magic
Take the Magic plus the points tonight in game two.
Yes in though the Magic almost let a 20 point lead get away on Sunday I just don’t see why the Celtics are a favorite tonight. I mean in order to almost loss a 28 points lead you first must be good enough to build a major lead right? Well the Magic are that good right now and in fact thanks to their game one win its Orlando who has now won the last three series games, including pair of outright wins in Boston dating back to the regular season. Plus, with the Magic having won their last 4 playoffs games while covering their last three it’s clear that Orlando is the better team here tonight. Meanwhile, minus a pair of key players the Celtics once dominating defense is gone as made evidence to the Bulls racking up 100 point games in round one and the Magic getting 42 points in the paint in game one. Flat out, while I don’t want to pass up on the points I don’t expect for the points to matter as I see Orlando winning outright to take a commanding 2-0 series lead before heading back to the Magic kingdom.
All Orlando!
100♦ Los Angeles Dodges -1 ½ Runs
Going for the modern day records of most consecutive win at home to start the season I look for the Dodgers to get lucky win #13 and do so in a blowout tonight. I mean thanks to the fact that the Dodgers will be playing the Nationals who are arguably the worst team in all of baseball I see nothing but a blowout for Los Angeles tonight. After all given that the Dodgers are leading the NL in runs scored per game while posting a team ERA of around 2 in their 12 homes games it’s easy to see why I expect a blowout. Meanwhile, with Los Angeles having won 11 of the past 15 series meetings there is really no going wrong with the Dodgers minus the Run Line here tonight.
All Los Angeles!
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-----------GL GUYS
NBA
2 Star Selection
Orlando (+4 ½) over BOSTON
06-May-09 05:05 PM Pacific Time
While it’s true that teams that lose game 1 of a series tend to play better in game 2 relative to their normal performance level, that phenomenon is being adjusted for by the odds makers – which explains why Boston opened as a 3 point favorite in this game after losing game 1 by 5 points as a 1 ½ point favorite. The appropriate line adjustment is 1.3 points for the game 1 loser in game 2 and my ratings favored Boston by 0.7 points in game 1, so the fair line for game 2 should be 2 points. The opening line of 3 points was off by a point because the Celtics are still overrated and now the line is up to 4 ½ points because the public still thinks that betting on the game 1 loser to cover in game 2 is the way to go. Historically that is correct (144-123-11 ATS), but that trend has been over-adjusted for by the odds makers and the public and the loser of game 1 is just 32-47-4 ATS in game 2 since 2004. So, we now usually have line value on the side of the team that won game 1 and that is certainly the case in this game. Game 1 losers are just 21-31-3 ATS in game 2 when the line has been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more and are just 2-6 ATS with an adjustment of 2 ½ points or more – as is the case in this game. If the line should be 2 points and we’re getting 4 ½ points, then we have a solid 58.5% play on underdog. In this case the underdog is a Magic team that is very good in that role. Orlando is 12-5 straight up and 14-3 ATS as an underdog this season and all 3 losses came in games in which the Magic were without their starting point guard. Orlando’s starting point guard Jameer Nelson missed some games in December and then was lost for the season in early February. For 2 weeks in February the Magic struggled without a legitimate point guard, but that situation was rectified with the acquisition of Rafer Alston at the All-Star break. Alston took over the point on February 20th and the Magic started to play up to their normal high standards again. Orlando is a very good 56-19 straight up in games with either Nelson or Alston at the point – excluding the final 3 games of the regular season in which the Magic rested their starters. In those 75 games the Magic are an incredible 13-0 ATS as an underdog with their only two straight up losses being by just 1 point and 4 points (at Cleveland). I’ll take Orlando in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +5 and I’d consider the Magic a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ or +3. No opinion on the total.
2-Stars at +4 or more, 3-Stars at +5.
Opinion
Over (193) – Houston at L.A. LAKERS
06-May-09 07:35 PM Pacific Time
The Lakers were favored by 9 ½ points in game 1, but made a horrendous 2 for 18 from 3-point range and lost straight up 92-100. Now the Lakers are favored by 10 points, so the odds makers have made the proper adjustment to the line favoring the team coming off the loss. There are no significant situations favoring either side and the line is about right after adjusting for the Lakers’ additional incentive, so I have no opinion on the side in this game.
I do lean with the Over, as the first game totaled 192 points despite the fact that the teams made a combined 7 of 36 3-point shots instead of the 13 or so that they should have combined to make. My math model predicts 195 ½ total points after adjusting for the usually slower playoff pace, so I’ll lean Over 194 points or less.
2 Star Selection
Orlando (+4 ½) over BOSTON
06-May-09 05:05 PM Pacific Time
While it’s true that teams that lose game 1 of a series tend to play better in game 2 relative to their normal performance level, that phenomenon is being adjusted for by the odds makers – which explains why Boston opened as a 3 point favorite in this game after losing game 1 by 5 points as a 1 ½ point favorite. The appropriate line adjustment is 1.3 points for the game 1 loser in game 2 and my ratings favored Boston by 0.7 points in game 1, so the fair line for game 2 should be 2 points. The opening line of 3 points was off by a point because the Celtics are still overrated and now the line is up to 4 ½ points because the public still thinks that betting on the game 1 loser to cover in game 2 is the way to go. Historically that is correct (144-123-11 ATS), but that trend has been over-adjusted for by the odds makers and the public and the loser of game 1 is just 32-47-4 ATS in game 2 since 2004. So, we now usually have line value on the side of the team that won game 1 and that is certainly the case in this game. Game 1 losers are just 21-31-3 ATS in game 2 when the line has been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more and are just 2-6 ATS with an adjustment of 2 ½ points or more – as is the case in this game. If the line should be 2 points and we’re getting 4 ½ points, then we have a solid 58.5% play on underdog. In this case the underdog is a Magic team that is very good in that role. Orlando is 12-5 straight up and 14-3 ATS as an underdog this season and all 3 losses came in games in which the Magic were without their starting point guard. Orlando’s starting point guard Jameer Nelson missed some games in December and then was lost for the season in early February. For 2 weeks in February the Magic struggled without a legitimate point guard, but that situation was rectified with the acquisition of Rafer Alston at the All-Star break. Alston took over the point on February 20th and the Magic started to play up to their normal high standards again. Orlando is a very good 56-19 straight up in games with either Nelson or Alston at the point – excluding the final 3 games of the regular season in which the Magic rested their starters. In those 75 games the Magic are an incredible 13-0 ATS as an underdog with their only two straight up losses being by just 1 point and 4 points (at Cleveland). I’ll take Orlando in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +5 and I’d consider the Magic a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ or +3. No opinion on the total.
2-Stars at +4 or more, 3-Stars at +5.
Opinion
Over (193) – Houston at L.A. LAKERS
06-May-09 07:35 PM Pacific Time
The Lakers were favored by 9 ½ points in game 1, but made a horrendous 2 for 18 from 3-point range and lost straight up 92-100. Now the Lakers are favored by 10 points, so the odds makers have made the proper adjustment to the line favoring the team coming off the loss. There are no significant situations favoring either side and the line is about right after adjusting for the Lakers’ additional incentive, so I have no opinion on the side in this game.
I do lean with the Over, as the first game totaled 192 points despite the fact that the teams made a combined 7 of 36 3-point shots instead of the 13 or so that they should have combined to make. My math model predicts 195 ½ total points after adjusting for the usually slower playoff pace, so I’ll lean Over 194 points or less.
