THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(3) Orlando (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) at (2) Boston (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS)
After stealing Game 1 in Boston, the Magic look to go up 2-0 in their best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Celtics when the two square off inside TD Banknorth Garden.
Orlando built an 18-point halftime lead in Game 1 on Monday, pushed it to 28 points in the second half, then held for a 95-90 upset win in Boston, cashing as a 1½-point underdog. Dwight Howard led the way for the Magic, putting in 16 points and controlling the boards with 22 rebounds. Boston got 23 points from Paul Pierce but the backcourt of Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo combined to go 4-for-24 from the field, including 1-of-9 from the three-point line.
Orlando has now won four straight (3-1 ATS) and six of its last eight (4-4 ATS) overall. The Magic have won three straight road playoff games (2-1 ATS) and they are 28-16-1 ATS on the road this season. On the opposite side, Boston has alternated wins and losses in its last six games (3-2-1 ATS) and have already lost twice in front of the home fans in the playoffs, once more than all of last year’s postseason run.
The Magic have now won three straight over the Celtics, including the last two in Boston. Orlando won the final two games of the regular season, winning 86-79 in Beantown on March 8 as a 2 ½-point ‘dog and then edged the Celtics 84-82 at home on March 25 but came up short as a 3 ½-point favorite. The home team has won eight of the last 11 in this series and covered the number in 21 of the last 31, but Boston has gotten the cash in six of the last 10 overall and 12 of the last 16 in Boston.
Orlando is on ATS slides of 3-10 against teams from the Atlantic division, 4-9 overall and 2-5 on the road, but the Magic are on ATS runs of 37-16-3 as underdogs, 10-4 as road ‘dogs and 44-17-1 as a ‘dog of up to 4 ½ points. The Celtics are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference semifinal games and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 home games, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 8-4 after getting one day off and 5-2 against Southeast Division teams.
Game 1 of this series stayed under the 188 ½-point total and in this rivalry, the under is 5-1 in the last six overall, but the over has been the play in seven of the last 11 in Boston.
It’s been all unders for the Magic lately, including 9-3 on the road, 8-3 after a spread-cover, 5-1 overall, 5-1 as ‘dogs and 6-1 on the road against teams with winning home marks. Boston is on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 21-9 overall, 36-17-1 at home, 36-18 against the Eastern Conference, 17-5 as a favorite, 5-1 after getting a day off and 11-1 following a loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(5) Houston (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS)
Having stunned the Lakers in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals, the Rockets now try to make it two in a row in Game 2 of their best-of-7 series inside the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
The Rockets led virtually wire-to-wire on Monday, beating the Lakers 100-92 as an 8½-point underdog to steal home-court advantage away from Los Angeles. Yao Ming delivered 28 points and 10 rebounds and led Houston to a 47.9 percent shooting night. Ron Artest had 21 points and seven assists and speedy point guard Aaron Brooks had 19 points. The Lakers’ Kobe Bryant got 32 points, but needed 31 shots to get there, while no other teammate had more than 14 points.
Houston has won four of its last five overall and has stolen the opening game of its playoff series for the second straight time. The Rockets, winners of 10 of their last 13 overall (8-5 ATS), also went to Portland and got a 108-81 Game 1 victory as five-point pups in their opening-round series.
Despite Monday’s setback, the Lakers needed just five games (2-3 ATS) to beat the Jazz in the opening round and have won 11 of their last 14 overall (7-7 ATS).
Monday’s win was Houston’s first over Phil Jackson’s Lakers this season. Los Angeles swept the four-game regular-season series (bioth SU and ATS), including two easy wins inside Staples Center. Los Angeles is still 7-4 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall and 5-2 ATS in the last seven played in Hollywood. Finally, the chalk is 4-2 in the last six series clashes.
Houston is on ATS slides of 4-9 against the Pacific Division, 11-24-1 after a spread-cover and 3-6 on the road against teams with winning home records, but the Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a playoff ‘dog of five to 10 ½-points. The Lakers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a playoff chalk, but otherwise they are on ATS streaks of 4-2 against Southwest Division squads, 4-2 after a non-cover and 7-3-1 in conference semifinal action.
The under has been the play in this series in the last three overall, including Monday’s total just getting in under the posted number, and five of the last eight.
The Rockets have topped the total in four of their last six against Pacific Division teams and seven of their last 11 against teams with winning records, but they are on “under” runs of 5-0 overall, 8-3 as a road ‘dog and 10-4 on the highway against teams with winning records. The Lakers have gone over the posted mark in four of six conference semifinal games but they are on “under” streaks of 12-3 at home against teams with a losing road record, 21-9 overall, 10-4 as a home chalk and 6-1 against Southwest Division teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Seattle (15-12) at Kansas City (16-11)
Two of the biggest surprises in baseball begin a four-game series at Kauffman Stadium, with the Mariners’ Carlos Silva (1-2, 7.36 ERA) set to oppose the Royals’ Sidney Ponson (0-4, 7.16) in a matchup of struggling journeyman right-handers.
Seattle has cooled off a bit after a hot start to the season, losing six of its last nine games, including getting swept in a two-game home series against the Rangers to start this week, falling 6-5 on Monday and 7-2 in 10 innings on Tuesday. Additionally, while the M’s have won seven of their last 10 on the road and eight of their last 10 series openers, they’re mired in slumps of 1-5 on Wednesday, 0-6 against right-handed starters and 1-4 versus teams from the A.L. Central.
The Royals ran their winning steak to four in a row with Tuesday’s come-from-behind 8-7 home win over the White Sox. Kansas City has also taken four straight and five of six at Kauffman Stadium and is on additional hot streaks of 9-1 against A.L. West foes, 5-1 on Wednesday and 16-7 versus right-handed starters. On the downside, of the Royals’ 11 losses this season, five have come in games Ponson has started.
Kansas City went 7-2 against Seattle last season, including 6-1 at Kauffman Stadium as the home team won seven of the final eight matchups.
Silva gave up six runs in 3 2/3 innings Friday against Oakland, but the Mariners eked out an 8-7 victory. Going back to last season, Silva has just one quality start in his last 13 trips to the mound, and he’s 1-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two road starts this season. With Silva pitching, the Mariners are on slides of 7-17 overall, 4-10 on the road, 0-5 against teams with a winning record and 0-5 against the A.L. Central, but they have prevailed in his last two outings (one home, one road).
Ponson was even worse than Silva in his last outing, getting rocked for seven runs in 4 1/3 innings of Friday’s 7-5 loss at Minnesota. That came on the heels of a solid eight-inning effort at home in which he yielded three runs to the Tigers, but still lost 3-2. In fact, Ponson has fared decently in three starts at Kauffman Stadium (0-2, 4.05 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), yet K.C. lost all three contests.
Silva has solid career numbers against the Royals (5-4, 4.10 ERA in 14 starts overall; 3-2, 3.61 ERA in eight starts in K.C.), while Ponson is 4-4 with a 4.53 ERA in 14 outings (13 starts) against the Mariners.
For Seattle, the “over” is on streaks of 6-1 overall, 5-0 on Wednesday, 8-3-1 on the road against right-handed starters, 5-1 overall when Silva pitches and 6-1 when Silva works on the road. Also, the over is 7-1 in Kansas City’s last eight overall and 4-1 in Ponson’s last five starts against the Mariners, with those games coming when Ponson was with the Yankees, Rangers and Orioles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS CITY and OVER
Tampa Bay (12-16) at N.Y. Yankees (13-13)
The Rays make their initial visit to new Yankee Stadium as they start a four-game set in the Bronx with Andy Sonnanstine (1-3, 6.75) scheduled to open the series opposite New York’s A.J. Burnett (2-0, 5.40).
Tampa hits the road after a 4-2 homestand that concluded with Tuesday’s 6-3 victory over the Orioles. However, the Rays are just 6-9 on the highway this season, having lost four of their last five as a visitor, and they’ve also struggled outside the comforts of a dome, losing 11 of their last 16 on grass. One positive: They’re 13-6 in their last 19 Wednesday contests.
New York is coming off back-to-back home losses to the archrival Red Sox, falling 6-4 on Monday and 7-3 on Tuesday. Still, the Yankees have won 14 of their last 20 at home and they’re on additional positive runs of 4-2 against right-handed starters, 5-1 versus losing teams and 53-20 on Wednesday. However Joe Girardi’s club has now dropped five straight games to A.L. East rivals.
These squads faced off in Florida in the middle of April, with the Yankees taking two of three. Going back to last year, New York is on an 8-3 roll in this rivalry. Finally, Tampa Bay went 21-53 in its last 74 games at old Yankee Stadium (2-6 last season).
Sonnanstine got in the win column for the first time in 2009 his last time out, scattering eight hits and four walks but yielding just two runs in 5 2/3 innings en route to Friday’s 6-2 home win. Prior to that effort, the Rays had lost five straight Sonnanstine outings going back to last year’s World Series. On the downside, Sonnanstine has been a disaster on the road this year, going 0-3 with a 9.20 ERA in three starts.
Sonnanstine has faced the Yankees five times since entering the big leagues in 2007, going 2-1 despite a hefty 5.65 ERA. That includes a no-decision in the Rays’ 4-3 home loss to New York on April 15, with the right-hander giving up just two runs in five innings.
New York is 4-1 with Burnett on the bump in 2009, including a 7-4 victory over the Angels a week ago tonight. In that contest, the veteran right-hander gave up four runs but went seven innings, getting a no-decision. He has a 4.72 ERA after two starts in his new home ballpark, and though he didn’t factor in the decision either time, the Yanks rallied to win both contests.
Burnett is 8-4 with a sensational 2.94 ERA in 17 career starts against Tampa, and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 outings against the Rays. That includes a 7-2 victory in Florida on April 14, when Burnett gave up just two runs on three hits and a walk, striking out nine over eight innings.
The Rays carry “under” trends of 4-1 on the road, 7-3 when playing on grass, 5-0 overall with Sonnanstine on the hill and 5-1 with Sonnanstine facing A.L. East foes. Conversely, the over for the Yankees is on streaks of 6-0-1 overall, 5-0-1 at home and 4-1 with Burnett pitching. Finally, the over is 4-1 in the last five Rays-Yankees clashes, but six of the eight meetings in the Bronx last season stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES