Drew Gordon Today's Games... 1. 300,000♦ Miami-Florida
2. 50,000♦ Illinois State
3. 50,000♦ NY Knicks
1. Miami-Florida- Coming off a truly disappointing loss to Virginia Tech, I'm looking for the 'Canes to bounce back BIG in tonight's match up at Providence. True, the home court edge is in effect for the Friars, but Providence is going to need a hell of a lot more than just home court to beat this highly motivated Miami team.
First off, Jack McClinton was invisible against the Hokies, scoring 9 points on 4 of 11 shooting, while turning the ball over a whopping 7 times! Needless to say, he's going to come out more motivated than ever tonight, and that's bad news for Friars-backers. Remember guys, we're talking about the same player who dropped 32 points on Wake, 34 on Duke, and 35 on North Carolina in 3 successive games in early February. In other words, he's a player who can truly take over a game, and right now he's chomping at the bit to redeem himself.
This match up also works well for Miami-Florida, because their frontcourt has been struggling offensively, and will get the chance to match up against a truly suspect Friars defense. Providence is allowing a whopping 76 ppg over their L5 games, and I can't think of a better match up to help the Hurricanes forwards get back on track, specifically Dwayne Collins. 'Canes need some scoring down-low to complement a strong backcourt, and I say this is the game where they get it!
That brings me to last point: A. Both teams are driven by their backcourts, but I'll take McClinton, Dews, and Hurdle over the Friars 3-guard rotation. Why? Again defense. While the offensive numbers are similar, there's no question the 'Canes defense is the difference, allowing just 64 ppg over their last 5 games! With the added motivation coming off the Virginia Tech loss, look for Miami to throw a wet blanket over this Providence offense tonight.
Finally, its important to note the road team is an outstanding 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Not only that, but Providence has been burning their backers of late, going just 3-9 ATS over their last 12 games overall! While we expect a hard-fought game here, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Miami won outright, due in large part to a big-time bounce back effort from McClinton.
Take Miami-Florida plus the points over Providence as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Illinois State- You have to hand it to Kansas State, returning only one starter from last year's team, and able to amass to a solid 21-11 record SU this season. However, don't make the mistake of thinking this is last year's Wildcats team, as K-State isn't nearly as good without Beasley and Walker, and it'll show tonight. Fact of the matter is, they may still win this contest, but covering the number is a completely different story. Read on...
You may not have heard of him, but Illinois State's Osiris Eldridge is the key to this one. His red-hot play garnered him the MVC Tournament Most Outstanding Player, despite playing on a non-championship team. He's averaged 18 ppg during the conference tourney, giving the Redbirds a huge boost in their backcourt production (remember he's not even their leading scorer this season, that would be Chamberlain Oguchi at 15 ppg). With Eldridge playing great ball, the Redbirds match up particularly well with K-State, and that brings me to my next point.
Looking over the match ups, its clear the Redbirds are a guard-heavy team, and that works just fine in this one. You see unlike last year with Michael Beasley, the Wildcats will not be able to take advantage of a smallish Redbirds frontline. In fact, Illinois State's 4-guard rotation should work great against a floundering K-State D, which is allowing 73 ppg on an ugly 47% shooting over their L5 games.
Herein lies the problem for the Wildcats, because you can rest-assured the Redbirds defense will come to play, allowing 64 ppg on 41% shooting over the same 5-game span. Also, while the Wildcats are 15-3 SU at home, that stat is deceiving because they're just 4-6 ATS at Bramlage Coliseum this season, incl. failing to cover in their last 3 home games!
Bottom line, these two teams are closer than the guys in Vegas want you to believe, and with the public leaning strongly on Kansas State, all signs point to a solid Redbirds cover in this contest. Defense is the key to this one, and right now the Wildcats are not playing enough of it to trust in this spot.
Take Illinois State plus the points over Kansas State in this college hoops match up.
3. NY Knicks- Situationally, you couldn't ask for a better spot, as the Knicks are coming home looking to build off a succesful road trip, while the Nets are playing the final game of their road trip, and come into this contest not only fatigued, but short-handed.
The injury to Devin Harris cannot be underscored enough, as he's 1 half of one of best scoring backcourts in the NBA. True, Carter can still score plenty given the oppurtunities, but now defenses can shift their attention to him, which is never a good thing (his days of carrying a team are long gone). We saw what happened at Denver in their last roadie - a 121-96 blowout - as the Nets got production from Carter, but everyone else forgot to get on the bus (Dooling was decent, but he's hardly consistent). Needless to say, the Nets are going to need A LOT more production just to stay in this contest.
One other observation I made from the Nets loss at the Nuggets was their inability to score on a very average defensive unit in Denver. Of course, the Knicks defense is worse, but they've been playing better of late, allowing 104 ppg over their last 5 games (which is an improvement). Not only that, but most people haven't realized the Nets defense has totally collapsed of late, allowing 110 ppg on 47% shooting over their last 5!
Finally, when you throw in the Nets troubles on defense, and couple that with the fact their playing in their final road game of this trip (can you say fatigue!), I just don't see how the Nets stop this Knicks offense. New York's offense is damn good, and without Harris, the Nets will be playing catch-up all night long. In the end, Carter and company just want to get back home, and their lack of focus
(and the absence of Harris) seals their doom in this contest.
Take the NY Knicks over the Nets in this NBA match up.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED----------- GL GUYS
