Long time watcher on this forum. This was one of the most insightful posts in a long time. I have watched line movements and been betting for a very long time. This post is exactly right. Lines will move for all kinds of reasons. You get a few squares dropping a ton of money on a game it may cause a line move with absolutely no reason other than "dumb money." You get a real professional gambler that walks in to a casino and throws down 1 to 2 dimes that vegas respects, he can change a line by himself. None of these dudes with these dumb f-in games of the year and games of year conference and 30 dimes and crap has any respect whatsoever. It kills me to look at these forums with these "tough guys" claiming to be these millionaires and crap.
The real dudes making money at this are smart bettors with great money management. Flat bettors that grind it out and make money. Why a line moves is important--"Why"
You follow reverse line movement "blindly" for too long you will get crushed. Been at this a long time, don't want people losing money on this "tired" theory. GL with the tourney
Interesting. So, in essence, what I've gathered from all this leads me to believe that it is still an absolute 50-50 crapshoot as to finding out the right team, and to cap the game yourself so you can feel confident about your pick. Unless you know 1st hand WHY the line has moved, watching line movement is not worth it. GREAT, back to square one....
Pay attention to it. Definitely pay attention. But I can think of endless examples where 75% to 80% of the money is on the favorite, there is reverse movement, and the fav gets the money. Or, reversed where the public is on the dog, there is movement with the favorite, and the dog gets the $. Just my input, watched this a long time.
People will see this, jump on it for a while cause it is hot, think they have struck gold, and the crush happens.
Usually the professional bettors bet smart. 1 to 3 dimes. I have a friend that is a whale and I have seen his offshore book move. I have seen it. He hits like 35%. Worst bettor I have seen. Got to know why they move in my opinion.
People will see this, jump on it for a while cause it is hot, think they have struck gold, and the crush happens.
Usually the professional bettors bet smart. 1 to 3 dimes. I have a friend that is a whale and I have seen his offshore book move. I have seen it. He hits like 35%. Worst bettor I have seen. Got to know why they move in my opinion.
You are right AB, Vegas is smart, what do you think they will do with a line if they are trapped?
Move it against the public because they know these "line watchers" will hit it. There are a lot out there thinking they have some kind of knowledge that no one has thought of before with this movement.
Move it against the public because they know these "line watchers" will hit it. There are a lot out there thinking they have some kind of knowledge that no one has thought of before with this movement.
Another point i should have made that I didn't and will make it right now. Don't always trust the betting %'s that are given to us by Sportsinsights. I'm not saying the % of bets are not correct but it doesnt even come close to telling us where the public bets are coming in on, if that makes any sense.
With experience you will know which team the public is on by the opening line the books provide us with.
Below is the comment of the night by uncle.
With experience you will know which team the public is on by the opening line the books provide us with.
Below is the comment of the night by uncle.
The best there is will hit about 58% long term. Why do you think these cappers release ten different kinds of plays? So they can say that there 2500 triple star plays have hit 10 in a row. We don't think about there 1000 star, 2000 star, and 4000 double goy stars that are in the crapper.
Its actually brilliant marketing.
Its actually brilliant marketing.
Years ago I was a rookie and fell for all this bullshit because I didn't have anyone helping me. I was betting $20 at blowdog depositing by paypal and betting on GOY's. It makes me sick to my stomach seeing people buy into it right now not knowing any better. I went from a square to absolutely killing it.
There are a few touts out there that are good but very few.
