Who will cover .com
Massachusetts vs. Duquesne (-2'), at Atlantic City, NJ
By Michael Cannon, Featured Handicapper
Take Duquesne minus the small number over Massachusetts in the first round of the A-10 tournament.
UMass has been a jekyl and hyde team this year, knocking off Kansas and crushing Dayton, but have also had ugly showings like their 17-point home loss to these very same Dukes on Feb. 25 when Duquesne shot 57 percent from the field.
Duquesne was able to dictate the pace and tempo in that first meeting and I don’t see much changing here tonight. Mainly because UMass isn’t capable of keeping the Dukes from pushing the pace at every opportunity.
The Minutemen have covered their last two, including an impressive outright win at Rhode Island on Saturday. But this game is all about matchups and UMass just doesn’t seem to match up well with the Dukes.
Duquesne is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with UMass.
Take Duquesne as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ DUQUESNE
St. Bonaventure (+5') vs. Richmond (at Atlantic City)
By Jeff Benton, Featured Handicapper
For Wednesday’s freebie in conference tournament action, we’ll grab the points with St. Bonaventure against Richmond in the Atlantic 10 tourney from Atlantic City.
Richmond certainly enters this event as the hotter team, winning five of its last six games, including Saturday’s impressive 80-75 upset win over Xavier as a 5 ½-point underdog. But you may recall that I backed the Spiders a few weeks back when they were playing Charlotte, which was coming off its own upset home win over Xavier. Well, my reason for backing Richmond that day is the same reason I’m going against the Spiders tonight: the old letdown theory.
Simply put, I do not trust an otherwise mediocre team to cover this kind of pointspread in a neutral-site game some 72 hours after scoring its biggest victory of the season. And because of that upset, not to mention Richmond’s 5-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run, we’re seeing the requisite inflated line here.
Meanwhile, even though St. Bonaventure lost eight of its last 12 games, the Bonnies closed on a 7-2 ATS run, and they cashed in eight of their last 11 as an underdog. What’s more, prior to its 4-8 slump, St. Bonaventure went to Richmond on Jan. 17 and knocked off the Spiders 71-67 as a 10 ½-point road underdog. That makes the ‘dog 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams.
The Bonnies are shooting the ball better and scoring more than Richmond over the last five games, and the Spiders have failed to cover in five of their last seven as a favorite and six of their last seven when laying points at a neutral site. St. Bonaventure’s a live ‘dog here, folks.
3♦ ST. BONAVENTURE (based on a 1♦ to 10♦ scale)
Baylor vs. Nebraska (+1), at Oklahoma City
By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
These two just met in Waco on Saturday night, and the Cornhuskers looked just fine in dispatching the Bears, 66-62. Here in Oklahoma City, I don't see a problem with Big Red taking care of business to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive.
I do believe the Bears have a much more balanced attack, but I don't think the athletic tenacity is there to hang with what is normally the strong-suited frontcourt. This kid Kevin Rogers is an excellent post-up player, but when you're trying to defend a team that usually plays with five guards, you can find your big man getting into foul trouble.
And if the Huskers get hot from the outside, can defend the perimeter against a team that lives and dies by the three and can frustrate Rogers by bringing him out from under the basket, this is a no-brainer.
Baylor, which has lost four of the last six meetings both straight-up and against the number, is also mired in an ugly 3-14 rut versus the books. Nebraska closed the season with two wins by an average margin of 10 points per victory and have covered three straight. Here we're just asking it to win the game. Play the Huskers.
1♦ NEBRASKA
Stanford (-6) vs. Oregon State, at Los Angeles
By Bobby Maxwell, Featured Handicapper
College hoops FREE winner for you tonight in the Pac-10 tournament as we go with Stanford to get the win and cover against Oregon State.
Stanford has owned this series except for this year, but we expect the Cardinal to change that today with a big victory. They'll cover this number and move on to the next round of the Pac-10 tourney.
Stanford had won six straight in this rivalry before this season and the Cardinal are 6-3 ATS in the last nine overall. They faltered against the Beavers this year, losing 77-62 at home as 16 1/2-point favorites and 66-54 at Oregon State as four-point favorites.
You know the Cardinal will be out for some revenge in this one after those two losses, including that humiliating home defeat. Stanford won two of three to close the season, including impressive home wins over Southern Cal and at Arizona State last Thursday.
Oregon State lost its last three to close out the season and lost six of its last nine (4-5 ATS). They haven't reached the 70-point mark in 11 straight games and couldn't even get to 55 in the final two.
Stanford is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 against Oregon State and they'll come out tonight determined and beat the Beavers by 10 at least. Play Stanford.
4♦ STANFORD
Stanford vs. OREGON STATE (+5') - at Los Angeles, CA
By Sports Gambling Hotline, Featured Handicapper
After sweeping the regular season series at 2-0 both straight up, and against the spread, it is hard not to go with Oregon State as they take on Stanford at the Staples Center tonight.
The Beavers do enter riding a 3-game straight up, and against the spread losing streak, but there is a silver lining, as their last pair of games both came in the City of Angels at UCLA, and USC, so the familiarities of the city should be no issue this Wednesday night.
Stanford didn't exactly close with a rush, as the Cardinal were no better than 2-5 straight up, and 2-4-1 against the spread in those 7 games, so we are a little reluctant to lay the points with Johnny Dawkins' team.
We will look for Stanford to avoid the embarrassing season "hat trick" at the hands of Oregon State, but we don't expect this 40-minute session to be a cake-walk for the Tree.
Play on the Beavers plus the points.
4♦ OREGON STATE
UC Davis vs. UC Irvine (-1'), at Anaheim, CA
By Michael Cannon, Featured Handicapper
Take UC-Irvine as the small chalk over UC-Davis in the first round of the Big West tournament.
UC-Irvine is one of the hottest pointspread teams in the country, going 7-0 ATS in its last seven.
Even so, this figures to be a tough matchup against a UC-Davis team that defeated the Anteaters in both regular season matchups this year.
But these things have a tendency to reverse themselves once conference tournament time comes.
Why else would Irvine be the small chalk here?
Anteater freshman forward Eric Wise has come into his own, averaging 19 ppg in the last five games and the Aggies don’t have anyone to match his physical presence in the paint.
Take UC-Irvine minus the small number as they grab the win and cover.
2♦ UC IRVINE