THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(2) Connecticut (25-2, 11-11 ATS) at (8) Marquette (23-4, 11-10-1 ATS)
Marquette carries a three-game winning streak into this Big East showdown with UConn, most recently upsetting Georgetown 78-72 Saturday, cashing as a 3½-point underdog to halt an 0-4 ATS slide. The Golden Eagles have scored in excess of 70 points in 14 of their last 15 games, including 12 of 13 league contests. Additionally, they’re averaging 80.4 points in six conference home games (all victories).
The Huskies bounced back from a 76-68 home loss to Pittsburgh with Saturday’s 64-50 rout of South Florida. However, they came up short as a 20-point home favorite, dropping to 1-4 ATS in their last four, including three consecutive non-covers. UConn has held 12 of its last 15 opponents to 61 points or less, but the offense has gone six straight games without cracking the 70-point barrier, netting 65.7 ppg during this stretch.
UConn are tied with Louisville atop the Big East standings at 13-2 (8-7 ATS), while Marquette (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS) is a half-game back. The Huskies have won all seven of their Big East road games (5-2 ATS), while the Eagles have split the cash in their six conference home wins.
These teams have met three times since Marquette joined the Big East in 2005-06. The Golden Eagles won the first two clashes – 94-79 as a 10-point home underdog in 2006 and 73-69 as a nine-point road pup in 2007 – but UConn took last year’s meeting 89-73, covering easily as a 2½-point home chalk.
Going back to the non-conference campaign, the Huskies have cashed in six of eight road games, and they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five on Wednesday and 3-0 SU and ATS as an underdog this year. UConn is also 8-2 SU and ATS against Top 25 competition. Marquette is on ATS streaks of 4-1 on Wednesday, 9-4 after a SU win, 5-1 as a favorite of less than seven points and 8-3 against teams with a winning record, and the Eagles are 4-2 SU and ATS against ranked foes.
The Golden Eagles average 83.6 ppg at home for the season, shooting 47.3 percent from the floor, while giving up 65.6 ppg (41.5 percent shooting). UConn puts up 68.4 ppg on the road (45.5 percent shooting), while holding opponents to a stifling 57.6 ppg (36.5 percent).
The under is 14-7 in UConn’s lined games this season, including 5-1 in the last six overall, 5-0 in its last five on the road and 6-2 in its last eight after an ATS setback. However, the over is 9-4 in Marquette’s last 13 after a spread-cover. Also, all three meetings between these schools have jumped over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Kentucky (19-8, 12-9-1 ATS) at South Carolina (19-6, 8-10-2 ATS)
South Carolina has won three of its last four and seven of its last nine to move to the top of the SEC East standings, where it is tied with Kentucky. The Gamecocks needed overtime to knock off Arkansas 82-78 on Saturday, but failed to cover as a 10-point home favorite. South Carolina has followed up a 3-0 ATS run by going 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games.
Kentucky had no trouble with Tennessee on Saturday, rolling 77-58 as a three-point home favorite. Like South Carolina, the Wildcats are on a 3-1 run, but like the Gamecocks, they’ve struggled against the number lately, going 2-5 ATS in their last seven, all in conference, including 1-2 SU and ATS on the road.
Both teams are 8-4 in SEC play, with Kentucky going 6-6 ATS and South Carolina posting a 5-5-2 ATS mark. While the Wildcats are 4-2 SU and ATS in conference road games, the Gamecocks have won all six SEC contests at home (2-3-1 ATS).
South Carolina went to Lexington on Jan. 31 and stunned Kentucky 78-77 as a 9½-point road underdog, snapping a four-game losing skid (1-3 ATS) in this rivalry. However, the visitor has won four of the last six series battles, with the Wildcats going 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three trips to Columbia, S.C. In fact, the road team has cashed in 11 of the last 14 head-to-head battles, and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.
Despite its 2-5 ATS dip overall, Kentucky is still on positive pointspread runs of 6-2 on the road, 9-4 versus teams with the winning record and 3-0 as an underdog of less than 18 points. South Carolina is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight after a non-cover, but otherwise is in pointspread ruts of 5-16-1 at home, 7-20-1 at home against opponents with a winning road record, 1-4-1 on Wednesday and 4-7-2 as a favorite.
The over is 16-2 in the last 18 meetings in this rivalry, including 5-0 in the last five. Also, the last six meetings in Columbia have hurdled the total. Finally, the over is on additional runs of 5-2 for Kentucky on the road, 10-1 for Kentucky against winning teams, 6-2 for South Carolina overall, 4-0 for South Carolina at home and 15-2 for South Carolina versus winning squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY and OVER
(7) Duke (22-5, 12-13-1 ATS) at Maryland (17-9, 11-7-2 ATS)
Maryland got the marquee victory it desperately needed Saturday, rallying from a double-digit second-half deficit to shock No. 3 North Carolina 88-85 in overtime, cashing as a 12-point home underdog. The Terrapins are on a 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS roll, all in ACC action, including three straight wins and covers in College Park, Md.
Duke ended a two-game ACC slide with Sunday’s 101-91 victory over Wake Forest, barely covering as an eight-point home favorite to end an 0-5 ATS nosedive. In hitting triple digits for the first time this season, the Blue Devils shot 54.1 percent from the field (8-for-23 from three-point range). However, they allowed the Demon Deacons to connect on 61 percent of their shots (5-for-9 from long distance), and they got outrebounded 32-20, but they took 20 more free throws and outscored Wake Forest 27-14 from the foul line.
Duke is 8-4 in ACC play, 1½ games behind first-place North Carolina, but Mike Krzyzewski’s squad has lost three straight ACC roadies, all as a favorite. The Blue Devils are just 5-7 ATS in conference (1-4 ATS on the highway). Maryland is 6-6 in the ACC (7-5 ATS), including 5-1 at home (3-3 ATS).
The Terps suffered their most embarrassing loss in years when they went to Duke on Jan. 24 and got crushed 85-44 as a 15-point underdog. The Blue Devils have won three straight in this rivalry (2-0-1 ATS), including a 93-84 road victory last year as a six-point favorite, after Maryland had gone 5-2 ATS in the previous seven. The SU winner is 9-0-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Blue Devils are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring 90 points in their previous contests, but their pointspread trends turn negative from there, including 0-4 on the road, 1-4 in ACC play, 1-4 on Wednesday and 1-5 against winning teams. Meanwhile, in addition to its 5-1 ATS run overall, Maryland is 37-15-2 ATS in its last 54 on Wednesday and 4-1 ATS in its last five against winning teams.
Both teams are filling the bucket right now, with Duke averaging 83.2 ppg (45.3 percent shooting) in its last five and Maryland putting up 76.6 ppg (43.5 percent) in its last five. However, the offensive surges have come at the expense of defense, with both teams giving up 83 ppg in their last five.
The over is on runs of 5-0 for the Blue Devils overall (4-0 in ACC play), 5-1 for Maryland overall (all in ACC play) and 4-1-1 for Maryland at home. However, the under is 24-6 in the Terps last 30 Wednesday contests, 7-1 in Duke’s last eight on Wednesday, 9-3 for Duke after a SU win and 12-2 for Duke after a spread-cover. Also, the last two series meetings have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Portland (35-21, 29-27 ATS) at San Antonio (28-17, 27-26-2 ATS)
The Trail Blazers kicked off a three-game road trip with Tuesday’s 98-94 loss at Houston, barely covering as a 4½-point road underdog. Portland had a three-game winning streak snapped in the loss, but is still 10-4 SU in its last 14. However, all four defeats have come in the team’s four most recent road games (1-3 ATS). The Blazers have followed up a 1-5 ATS slump with three straight spread-covers.
The Spurs returned from an eight-game, 19-day road trip Tuesday and, despite not having Manu Ginobili or Tim Duncan in the lineup, they dominated the Mavericks 93-76 as a 1½-point home favorite, the team’s first game at the AT&T Center since Jan. 31. San Antonio is 13-4 in its last 17 games (11-5-1 ATS), including five straight home wins (3-2 ATS). Since starting the season 2-4 SU and ATS in San Antonio, Gregg Popovich’s squad has won 17 of its last 22 home games (9-10-1 ATS).
Portland ended a 12-game losing streak to San Antonio on Halloween, eking out a 100-99 victory as a 2½-point home underdog. The Blazers have cashed in the last two meetings and four of the last six. Despite that, the host is on a 6-1 ATS run in this rivalry and Portland has failed to cover in five of its last six trips to San Antonio.
Going back to early December, the Blazers have dropped nine of their last 13 roadies (5-8 ATS), with the winner covering each of those contests before last night. Going back further, Portland has failed to cash in 12 of its last 17 as a visitor, and the team is also 2-4 ATS in its last six against the Southwest Division and 2-6 ATS in its last eight on Wednesday.
San Antonio is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 home games, 0-4 ATS in its last four on Wednesday and 5-13 ATS in its last 18 when playing on back-to-back nights. Otherwise, though, the Spurs are on spread-covering surges of 9-2-1 overall, 5-0-1 against the Western Conference, 5-2 against the Northwest Division and 7-0 versus winning teams.
For Portland, the under is on runs of 17-9 against the Southwest Division, 4-1-1 in Western Conference games, 46-20-1 on Wednesday and 6-2 when playing on back-to-back nights, and the under is 6-1 in San Antonio’s last seven on Wednesday and 5-2-1 in San Antonio’s last eight when playing on no rest. However, the over is on stretches of 6-2 for the Blazers on the road, 8-3-1 for the Blazers after a SU win, 8-4 for the Spurs overall, 7-3 for the Spurs at home, 5-1 for the Spurs against the Western Conference, 5-1-1 for the Spurs against the Northwest Division and 10-5-1 for the Spurs after a spread-cover,
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
Atlanta (32-24, 28-28 ATS) at Denver (37-20, 31-25-1 ATS)
The Hawks will try to break even on a six-game road trip when they visit the Pepsi Center tonight. Atlanta has suffered consecutive double-digit losses to Northwest Division foes Portland (108-98 as a 4½-point underdog Friday) and Utah (108-89 as a 7½-point pup Monday). Since cashing as a 3 ½-ponit underdog in a four-point win at Detroit to begin the road trip, the Hawks have gone 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU).
Denver returned home from an exhausting eight-game, 16-day road trip Monday and got spanked by the Celtics 114-76 as a one-point home underdog, ending a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) at the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets have followed up a 3-0 SU and ATS run – during which it allowed just 81.3 ppg – with three consecutive SU and ATS setbacks, giving up 116, 120 and 114 points.
The host is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings in this rivalry, with the Hawks rolling to a 109-91 victory as a five-point favorite back on Dec. 19. Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 series clashes and 6-2 ATS in the last eight trips to the Mile High City. Finally, the favorite has covered in each of the last four head-to-head tussles.
The Nuggets are on positive pointspread runs of 4-0 against the Southeast Division, 4-1 after a double-digit loss, 20-8 at home against teams with a losing road record and 15-6 when playing on one day of rest.
The Hawks, in addition to failing to cover in their last four on this road trip, carry negative ATS trends of 0-5 against the Western Conference, 1-5 versus winning teams, 2-6 after a double-digit loss and 9-19 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous outing. Also, Atlanta has failed to cash in three straight as an underdog after starting the season 17-6 ATS as a pup.
The over is on streaks of 7-3 when Atlanta plays on one day of rest, 4-0 when Denver goes on one day of rest, 10-3 for Denver after a non-cover and 4-1 for Denver after a double-digit defeat. However, the under is 5-2 in the Nuggets’ last seven overall, 5-2 in their last seven against the Eastern Conference, 5-2 for the Hawks against the Northwest Division and 8-2 for the Hawks after a SU defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
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