Andre Gomes | NBA Sides Wed, 11/11/09 - 7:05 PM •~
dime bet 704 TOR -5.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 703 CHI
Analysis: NBA - 703 Chicago Bulls @ 704 Toronto Raptors
So far in the season it has been unbelievable how “our” teams have suffered letdowns in the second half of the games ruining some solid plays. The Wizards were leading by 73-71 with 5 minutes to go just to lose by 14 points or the Kings and the Thunder combined to score 160 points after the third quarter just to score 39 points in the final quarter. We have to move and expect more “regular performances” through the games.
For this game we have two teams who are in opposite sides. The Raptors are known for their offense and the Bulls for their defense. The Raptors as I've already said before are a scoring machine, as all their 5 players on the court can create their own shot. So far in the season they scored always above the century mark in points and with a good ball movement I expect them to create good opportunities to score tonight against the Bulls. The problem is their unbelievable bad perimeter defense and they are also a bad rebounding team. For some reason they allowed 129 and 131 points in their last two games and we must take in account that the Mavs shot 10-20 behind the arc and the Spurs 14-28! Tonight against the Bulls, I don’t expect them to suddenly have a suffocating defense on the court, but the good news is that the Bulls are struggling right now on the offensive end especially in the long range.
They are dead last in the league in 3pts % with just 25.27 % - by the way the Raptors are the third best with 42.86 % and so, the Raptors can focus more in protecting the paint. I know that the Bulls are a good defensive team and their numbers say~ so, however they had a tough game last night at home against the Nuggets and head coach Vinny Del Negro didn’t rotate properly his roster. Joakim Noah played 42:30 minutes; Derrick Rose 39:02; Luol Deng 39:33 and Derrick Rose 39:02 minutes. Being a good defensive team is a team concept, but it’s hard to defend at their best when they're tired and that’s what is happening with the Bulls for tonight’s game. The Raptors are fired up for this game after such huge losses on the road and they will face a good Bulls team, but who is in a awfully bad spot. I’m taking the Raptors in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Toronto Raptors (-5,5)
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Andre Gomes | NBA Total Wed, 11/11/09 - 7:35 PM •~
dime bet 705 ATL / 706 NYK Over 207.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: This is a play that I’ve already decided while watching the Jazz/Knicks. Yes, it’s hard to watch the Knicks playing these days, but I saw good signs of them especially in the second half. The reason is simply: Mike D’Antoni decided to bench their PG Chris Duhon and with the rookie Tony Douglas on the court, the Knicks finally played decent basketball. The best way to describe these two players is to look to their stats: Duhon played 28 minutes and scored 8 points for 2-7 from the field performance and his +/- team points numbers were a dismal -15 points. Meanwhile, Douglas saw 23 minutes of action, scored 21 points, while shooting 9-14 FG and with a +5 points impact for the team. Duhon did not play in the fourth quarter and not surprisingly the Knicks scored 33+29 points versus just 31 points in the entire first half!! For tonight's game, I expect Duhon to be the starter, but if he starts struggling again, D’Antoni won’t surely wait very long to insert Douglas in the court.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are a special team regarding the way they play. I've already have said that they can compete in each way. They can defeat the Blazers by 97-91 in a slow half court game or they can defeat the Nuggets by 125-100 in a wild open game. It is their opponents who dictates the pace and with the Knicks being their opponents for tonight, I expect the game to be a fast tempo game. The Hawks are ranked 4th in fast break points averaging 15.7 points per game and they will have a lot of opportunities tonight.
My fair line for this game is 210/212 points and we have a lower line for this contest due to the low outcomes involving the Kni~cks, but like I said, I expect them be more assertive tonight, while the Hawks will keep the pace. Take the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 207,5
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Andre Gomes | NBA Sides Wed, 11/11/09 - 8:05 PM •~
dime bet 713 DEN -3.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 714 MIL
Analysis: I believe that the Denver Nuggets are underrated for this game due to the perception that this is a powe~rful letdown spot for them. I know that this is the final game of a brutal road trip and last night they faced the Bulls in a tight ballgame and so, they may accuse some fatigue, but unlike the Bulls for example, we are dealing with a deep roster and a complete team. Note that the only player who topped the 40-minutes mark was Nene with exactly 40 minutes and for example Billups played “just” 33 minutes or Carmelo “just” 36 minutes. Also JR Smith returned yesterday and the Nuggets have a nice bench with Lawson, JR Smith, Chris Andersen and Anthony Carter, so we can expect them to be competitive tonight.
Meanwhile, the Bucks are an overrated team in my opinion for this contest. They are 3-2 right now and they're coming from back to back wins against the Wolves and the Knicks. According to my rankings, they are the best defensive team of the league right now, as they've always allowed less than 99 points in their games. In fact in their last 4 games they've allowed 87, 72, 83 and 85 points, however in my opinion this is just a situational spot because they are yet to face a potent offensive team like the Nuggets are. Of all their opponents so far in the season, the best rated offensive team are the Sixers, who are just 11th on my offensive rankings. Coincidently or not, it was the Sixers who scored 99 points against the Bucks. All the other teams are ranked 20th or worst in my offensive ratings, so the Bucks defensive unit despite being a decent unit, they are not the best defensive team of the league and tonight the Nuggets will show that.
At the same time, the Bucks offense has been awful, as they are the third worst offense of the league and they've only reached the century mark in points once. I understand that their defense kept them on the games, but while facing the Nuggets, you can’t expect them to hold the Nuggets offense to the 70 or 80 points and so you have to score and this team without Michael Redd isn’t a good offensive team. Rookie Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut can make some good performances, but while facing a team like the Nuggets, the challenge is too much for them right now. Take the Nuggets in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713 Denver Nuggets (-3,5)
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Andre Gomes | NBA Sides Wed, 11/11/09 - 8:05 PM •~
dime bet 717 CLE 1.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 718 ORL
Analysis: This is a special game for the Cavaliers, as only the Orlando Magic stopped them last season from reaching the NBA Finals and so this is a huge sentimental and revenge game for the Cavs.
Besides that, the Cavs have also a pretty favorable spot for today, as they had 4 days off to rest and to prepare this game, while the Magic will play a back to back tonight, as they played last night on the road against the Bobcats in a tough game.
If you remember, the Cavs had tremendous problems last season in matching up the Magic because Orlando was playing with Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis at the SF and PF positions and these players spread the floor and gave the Magic a huge edge on the perimeter, because the Cavs couldn't concentrate their focus in defending Howard and at the same time defend the perimeter, as Varejao simply couldn’t defend Lewis. Luckily for the Cavs, Lewis is still suspended for tonight’s contest and his natural replacement Ryan Anderson is injured and out for this ga~me and so, Brandon Bass will play tonight at the PF position. Despite being a good player, Bass isn’t a good perimeter player and so the Magic will be using a more typical lineup tonight and this will help the Cavs’ defensive unit. For the Magic, Vince Carter is hobbling with an ankle injury and he is not playing at his best and suddenly we have a Magic team who is far from being playing at their best.
Meanwhile, the Cavs have been inconsistent as well, but they have the emotional edge on their side and a better physical spot. As I expect a better matchup for the Cavs tonight due to the Magic absences, I believe that the Cavs have a great shot to finally beat the Magic in Orlando and I don’t think that they will miss this chance tonight. Take Cleveland in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Cleveland Cavaliers (+1)
©2009 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.
Andre Gomes | NBA Sides Wed, 11/11/09 - 10:35 PM •~
dime bet 723 NOH 6.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 724 PHO
Analysis: This is a pure anti public play, as I will go against the red hot Suns team in this contest. First of all, this isn’t a good spot for them, as they were involved in a long road trip in the East by playing 6 games in just 9 days and then they had only one day off to rest and to prepare this home game against the Hornets.
Despite the poor record of 3-5, the Hornets are a dangerous team and they have been a terrible matchup for the Suns lately and this won’t change tonight. As good as Steve Nash has been playing right now, the Hornets have Chris Paul and CP3's quickness and explosiveness was a tough matchup for Nash in the past and this won’t surely change tonight because CP3 has been putting some impressive numbers as well this season.
The Hornets struggled this season in the battle for the rebounds, as they are the 6th worst rebounding team in the league and they were constantly outrebounded by their opponents who had too many second opportunities. The good news for them is that the Suns are a poor rebounding team as well. In fact they are the 8th worst team in this department and so, the Hornets won’t suffer of such handicap tonight. New Orleans are coming from a easy win by 112-84 in their last game and Byron Scott inserted Peja Stojakovic in the starting lineup and Peja didn’t disappoint, as he shot 5-11 from the field. This is important for them becau~se while facing the Suns, you get many open wild shots and with a confident Peja on the court, the Hornets have their own weapons to outscore the Suns.
This game will likely turn into a ballgame decided only down the stretch and despite the Suns have the momentum on their side, I think both teams have the same chances to win this game, as the Hornets due to the stellar play of Chris Paul down the stretch can always give the win to his team. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hornets win outright this game and I’m taking them tonight.
Pick: 1 unit on 723 New Orleans Hornets ML @ +340
Pick: 2 units on 723 New Orleans Hornets (+6,5)
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Andre Gomes | NBA Total Wed, 11/11/09 - 10:35 PM •~
dime bet 725 OKL / 726 LAC Over 185.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: These two teams are coming fro~m disappointing performances and they look to bounce back tonight. I was surprised to see such low totals line in here and we have some room to work with the Over, as my fair line is 189/192 points.
Last night the Thunder lost in Sacramento by 98-101 and we got a push in our over play, however note that the Thunder played awfully bad basketball, as they shot only 39.7 % from the field. Russell Westbrook was a disaster by shooting 3-13 FG; Sefolosha 1-7 FG and Kevin Durant only 9-23 from the field. Still, the Thunder were able to score 98 points due to their aggressiveness and the high pace of the game. The Clippers play in a fast pace as well and so we will see a relatively entertaining game tonight and I naturally expect Durant and Westbrook to have better numbers tonight.
Meanwhile, the Clippers are coming from a huge 84-112 loss against the Hornets and they struggled in both ends of the floor. They shot only 43% from the field; 27.8 % from 3pts and just 55% from the charity stripe. Baron Davis shot 3-10 FG and even Chris Kaman who is having a stellar season shot just 6-12 from the field. Like the Thunder, I expect the Clippers to offer a better performance tonight and be more aggressive on the floor. With both teams in a bounce back mode, according to my pace prediction my fair line is 190 points and we have enough edge to pull the trigger with the Over. Take the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 725/726 Over 185,5
