David Malinsky MLB
4* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -135 vs Atlanta @ 7:05 PM ET - Hamels vs Reyes -
Last week we were all set to turn the Phillies and Cole Hamels as a 6* Run Line over Atlanta with Jo-Jo Reyes on the hill. A pitching change turned that into a scratch, but note that we saw exactly what we wanted to from Hamels, in a game that was much more dominating than the bottom line would show. While he got the win, allowing two runs over six innings, the real story comes from the secondary numbers. He only walked one of the 26 batters that he faced, and of the 18 outs recorded the distribution is what we call “clean” – 13 ground-balls and five strikeouts, with nary a fly out. That rarely happens, but it shows how easily he can control a lineup that has struggled vs. left-handers all season. We believe that he can do it again, which builds up plenty of early innings for the Phillies to break the game open, and a rested Brad Lidge is ready to make the last outs easy as well. This time the Phillies do get to see Reyes, and that should get them to the ballpark early for batting practice. It also means that it may be difficult to tell when BP ended and the game began. Reyes just does not bring Major League stuff to the mound, with a combined 5-13/5.89 through his first two seasons, and in terms of this matchup and current form it is even worse. A case can be made that since the 4th of July there has not been a worse starter in the sport, at an 0-5/8.48 over 40.1 innings (just 4.1 frames per start!). The Braves have gone 0-9 in his starts in that span, 1-8 as +1.5, getting out-scored by a combined 38 runs. And behind Reyes is an overworked bullpen that can only add gasoline to any fires that he has lit. For all that is involved in this one the marketplace is enabling us to play a blowout in a short range, and we will do just that.
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4* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -135 vs Atlanta @ 7:05 PM ET - Hamels vs Reyes -
Last week we were all set to turn the Phillies and Cole Hamels as a 6* Run Line over Atlanta with Jo-Jo Reyes on the hill. A pitching change turned that into a scratch, but note that we saw exactly what we wanted to from Hamels, in a game that was much more dominating than the bottom line would show. While he got the win, allowing two runs over six innings, the real story comes from the secondary numbers. He only walked one of the 26 batters that he faced, and of the 18 outs recorded the distribution is what we call “clean” – 13 ground-balls and five strikeouts, with nary a fly out. That rarely happens, but it shows how easily he can control a lineup that has struggled vs. left-handers all season. We believe that he can do it again, which builds up plenty of early innings for the Phillies to break the game open, and a rested Brad Lidge is ready to make the last outs easy as well. This time the Phillies do get to see Reyes, and that should get them to the ballpark early for batting practice. It also means that it may be difficult to tell when BP ended and the game began. Reyes just does not bring Major League stuff to the mound, with a combined 5-13/5.89 through his first two seasons, and in terms of this matchup and current form it is even worse. A case can be made that since the 4th of July there has not been a worse starter in the sport, at an 0-5/8.48 over 40.1 innings (just 4.1 frames per start!). The Braves have gone 0-9 in his starts in that span, 1-8 as +1.5, getting out-scored by a combined 38 runs. And behind Reyes is an overworked bullpen that can only add gasoline to any fires that he has lit. For all that is involved in this one the marketplace is enabling us to play a blowout in a short range, and we will do just that.
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Chris James Sports (11-4 MLB Run)
Florida Marlins at Washington Nationals
Selection: Florida Marlins -124
Analysis:
It looks like Florida has completely taken themselves out of the wild card race after losing the last two games to the Phillies over the weekend and blowing a lead last night against the Reds. Tonight they open up a series with the Washington Nationals who never had any hopes of Playoff Play and absolutely should be playing in AAA. There isn't much to this game tonight other than the fact that the Marlins are a much better team than the Nationals overall, and Olsen owns the Nationals when he is on the mound. The Marlins are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. a right handed starter and are 9-3 in their last 12 overall. The Marlins suprised some people this year as they played winning ball all year, just not enough to take it to the next step. They have had the offense to be a contender but their downfall has been their pitching all year. Tonight they send Scott Olsen to the mound who is 8-10 on the year with a 4.2 ERA. Againts the Nationals though, Olsen is 3-0 with a 3.04 ERA. His last 3 starts he has an ERA of 2.84 which shows signs that he is pitching in good from his last couple of starts. The Marlins have won the last 4 games that Olsen has started vs. the Nationals as well as winning the last 6 in Washington. If that wasn't enough the Marlins have won 15 of the last 17 meetings overall. Look for the Marlins to win this game as they look to have a strong showing these last few games to make sure they finish above .500. Take the Marlins as Chris James Bonus Play Selection.
Florida Marlins at Washington Nationals
Selection: Florida Marlins -124
Analysis:
It looks like Florida has completely taken themselves out of the wild card race after losing the last two games to the Phillies over the weekend and blowing a lead last night against the Reds. Tonight they open up a series with the Washington Nationals who never had any hopes of Playoff Play and absolutely should be playing in AAA. There isn't much to this game tonight other than the fact that the Marlins are a much better team than the Nationals overall, and Olsen owns the Nationals when he is on the mound. The Marlins are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. a right handed starter and are 9-3 in their last 12 overall. The Marlins suprised some people this year as they played winning ball all year, just not enough to take it to the next step. They have had the offense to be a contender but their downfall has been their pitching all year. Tonight they send Scott Olsen to the mound who is 8-10 on the year with a 4.2 ERA. Againts the Nationals though, Olsen is 3-0 with a 3.04 ERA. His last 3 starts he has an ERA of 2.84 which shows signs that he is pitching in good from his last couple of starts. The Marlins have won the last 4 games that Olsen has started vs. the Nationals as well as winning the last 6 in Washington. If that wasn't enough the Marlins have won 15 of the last 17 meetings overall. Look for the Marlins to win this game as they look to have a strong showing these last few games to make sure they finish above .500. Take the Marlins as Chris James Bonus Play Selection.
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