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Tuesday Baseball
100* Play Philadelphia (-220) over AtlantaGame starts at 7:10 PM EST Philadelphia has won 12 of the last 13 games and they have also won 26 of the last 37 games after allowing one run or less. Roy Halladay has won 12 of the last 13 games vs. division opponents and he is 2-0 vs. Atlanta over his career with an ERA of 0.36. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50* Play Boston (-190) over BaltimoreGame starts at 7:10 PM EST Boston has won 21 of the last 25 games coming off three or more UNDER the totals and they have also won 19 of the last 25 games vs. Baltimore at home. Clay Buchholz has won 10 of the last 12 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and he has also won 3 consecutive games when playing on a Tuesday.
Tuesday Baseball
100* Play Philadelphia (-220) over AtlantaGame starts at 7:10 PM EST Philadelphia has won 12 of the last 13 games and they have also won 26 of the last 37 games after allowing one run or less. Roy Halladay has won 12 of the last 13 games vs. division opponents and he is 2-0 vs. Atlanta over his career with an ERA of 0.36. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50* Play Boston (-190) over BaltimoreGame starts at 7:10 PM EST Boston has won 21 of the last 25 games coming off three or more UNDER the totals and they have also won 19 of the last 25 games vs. Baltimore at home. Clay Buchholz has won 10 of the last 12 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and he has also won 3 consecutive games when playing on a Tuesday.
BeatYourBookie Daily Premium Baseball Winners for Tuesday
10* Play Detroit (-160) over Kansas City (POD)7:10 P.M. EST Detroit is 33-13 vs. left-handed starting pitchers the last 2 seasonsDetroit is 27-7 as a favorite of -150 or higher this seasonBruce Chen is 3-8 as an underdog of +150 or higher the last 3 seasons
10* Play Detroit (-160) over Kansas City (POD)7:10 P.M. EST Detroit is 33-13 vs. left-handed starting pitchers the last 2 seasonsDetroit is 27-7 as a favorite of -150 or higher this seasonBruce Chen is 3-8 as an underdog of +150 or higher the last 3 seasons
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.02 over Atlanta
The Phillies are red-hot both in the win column and at the plate. In fact, they have five hitters in the National League’s top 16 in OPS this month: Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz. They’ve also reeled off eight in a row and an incredible 42 out of its last 57 games. It’s no coincidence that Hamels, Halliday and Oswalt were lined up for this series. Roy Halliday needs no introductions. The man can flat out bring it and now that he can smell the post-season, you can expect him to double his already high competitive intensity. There was a lot to like in Mike Minor's first four MLB starts. His control was good and he even struck out 12 Cubbies in one of those starts. That must seem like an eternity ago to Minor because things have taken a dramatic turnaround for the worse. In three September starts the league is hitting a robust .351 off him. He’s allowed 14 earned runs over his last 14 IP and his confidence has to be fragile right now. A close look reveals a low ground-ball percentage in all of his starts combined of 34% and a fly-ball % of 54%. That’s asking for big trouble in this park against this team and chances are good he’ll run into it. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
NY Mets/FLORIDA over 8
Mile Pelfrey is coming off back-to-back strong starts but don’t put too much emphasis on that. Both starts came at Citi Field and that joint can make anyone look good. Pay more attention to the fact that Pelfrey has walked 7 and struck out 10 over his last three starts. Prior to those two good starts he was whacked in two road starts to the tune of 14 hits and 10 ER in 8.2 frames. Pelfrey’s ERA isn't half bad, but when you take a look at the xERA of 5.03 over the last month, it’s pretty clear that we should stick a fork in Pelfrey for the year ... he's done. Also note that on the road this season he’s 5-6 with an ERA of 5.30 and a BAA of .331. Last time he faced these Marlins, they rocked him for 12 hits in 4.2 inning (.522 BAA) and current Marlins batters are hitting .342 off him in 79 career AB’s. Pelfrey has truly benefitted from pitching at home but get this guy on the road and he’s about as intimidating as a 145-lb bouncer. The Cubs originally signed Adalberto Mendez as a non-drafted FA out of the Dominican Republic in 2001. He has toiled for eight minor league campaigns mostly in relief but this year at the minor league level they attempted to turn him into a starter. He made nine starts at New Orleans and went 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA in 40.1 IP. He's hasn't gone beyond six innings in any start, and at 6-2, 160, there are some issues regarding his stamina, not to mention potential control issues too. When Mendez starts missing the plate he seldom finds it again. He’s walked seven batters in his two major league starts covering 10.1 frames. His stuff is ok but there is way more risk than upside and combined, these two pitchers could and likely will implode big time. This is a low and very beatable number. Play: NY Mets/Florida over 8 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.02 over Atlanta
The Phillies are red-hot both in the win column and at the plate. In fact, they have five hitters in the National League’s top 16 in OPS this month: Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz. They’ve also reeled off eight in a row and an incredible 42 out of its last 57 games. It’s no coincidence that Hamels, Halliday and Oswalt were lined up for this series. Roy Halliday needs no introductions. The man can flat out bring it and now that he can smell the post-season, you can expect him to double his already high competitive intensity. There was a lot to like in Mike Minor's first four MLB starts. His control was good and he even struck out 12 Cubbies in one of those starts. That must seem like an eternity ago to Minor because things have taken a dramatic turnaround for the worse. In three September starts the league is hitting a robust .351 off him. He’s allowed 14 earned runs over his last 14 IP and his confidence has to be fragile right now. A close look reveals a low ground-ball percentage in all of his starts combined of 34% and a fly-ball % of 54%. That’s asking for big trouble in this park against this team and chances are good he’ll run into it. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
NY Mets/FLORIDA over 8
Mile Pelfrey is coming off back-to-back strong starts but don’t put too much emphasis on that. Both starts came at Citi Field and that joint can make anyone look good. Pay more attention to the fact that Pelfrey has walked 7 and struck out 10 over his last three starts. Prior to those two good starts he was whacked in two road starts to the tune of 14 hits and 10 ER in 8.2 frames. Pelfrey’s ERA isn't half bad, but when you take a look at the xERA of 5.03 over the last month, it’s pretty clear that we should stick a fork in Pelfrey for the year ... he's done. Also note that on the road this season he’s 5-6 with an ERA of 5.30 and a BAA of .331. Last time he faced these Marlins, they rocked him for 12 hits in 4.2 inning (.522 BAA) and current Marlins batters are hitting .342 off him in 79 career AB’s. Pelfrey has truly benefitted from pitching at home but get this guy on the road and he’s about as intimidating as a 145-lb bouncer. The Cubs originally signed Adalberto Mendez as a non-drafted FA out of the Dominican Republic in 2001. He has toiled for eight minor league campaigns mostly in relief but this year at the minor league level they attempted to turn him into a starter. He made nine starts at New Orleans and went 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA in 40.1 IP. He's hasn't gone beyond six innings in any start, and at 6-2, 160, there are some issues regarding his stamina, not to mention potential control issues too. When Mendez starts missing the plate he seldom finds it again. He’s walked seven batters in his two major league starts covering 10.1 frames. His stuff is ok but there is way more risk than upside and combined, these two pitchers could and likely will implode big time. This is a low and very beatable number. Play: NY Mets/Florida over 8 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Hentai
Game : Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (MLB) 07:10pm EST
Prediction : UNDER 8.5 Total Runs.
Analysis : Two weak offensive teams meet in Fenway. Boston has had a bad second half of the season offensively because of injuries, losing several of their best offensive players. Baltimore comes to town with the second worst offense in the AL. Starter Brad Bergesen has a 1.74 ERA his last three starts, while the Red Sox go with ERA leader Clay Buchholz (2.48 ERA). Can’t see many runs in this one, play the Orioles/Red Sox Under the total.
Game : Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (MLB) 07:10pm EST
Prediction : UNDER 8.5 Total Runs.
Analysis : Two weak offensive teams meet in Fenway. Boston has had a bad second half of the season offensively because of injuries, losing several of their best offensive players. Baltimore comes to town with the second worst offense in the AL. Starter Brad Bergesen has a 1.74 ERA his last three starts, while the Red Sox go with ERA leader Clay Buchholz (2.48 ERA). Can’t see many runs in this one, play the Orioles/Red Sox Under the total.
Tuesday MLB play- GC
On Tuesday the Free MLB play is on the San Francisco Giants. Game 909 at 8:05 eastern. What we want to do is play on a road favorite if both teams are off home wins by 5 or more runs. This simple system has cashed at a high rate the past few years. The Giants have M. Cain on the mound and they have won 10 of his last 12 starts. When pitching against the Cubs Cain has allowed just 3 runs in 21+ innings over the last 3 years. The Giants also have a big bullpen edge as their 3.12 bullpen era is one of the best in the league. San Francisco has won 3 of the 4 meetings this season as well. Chicago sends erratic rightly C. Zambrano to the mound tonight, and he clearly is not the same pitcher he was just a few years ago. With the Cubs 4-11 as a home dog in this range, we will side with the Giants here tonight. For the Bonus Play take the San Francisco Giants. GC
On Tuesday the Free MLB play is on the San Francisco Giants. Game 909 at 8:05 eastern. What we want to do is play on a road favorite if both teams are off home wins by 5 or more runs. This simple system has cashed at a high rate the past few years. The Giants have M. Cain on the mound and they have won 10 of his last 12 starts. When pitching against the Cubs Cain has allowed just 3 runs in 21+ innings over the last 3 years. The Giants also have a big bullpen edge as their 3.12 bullpen era is one of the best in the league. San Francisco has won 3 of the 4 meetings this season as well. Chicago sends erratic rightly C. Zambrano to the mound tonight, and he clearly is not the same pitcher he was just a few years ago. With the Cubs 4-11 as a home dog in this range, we will side with the Giants here tonight. For the Bonus Play take the San Francisco Giants. GC
been on more than a few diff sites this morn and have yet to see this play.....if that means anything. It could be a correct play, just have not seen it on any of the Big service play forums, which no offense I trust much more than this thread. Cant pick, you do a fantastic job it is just some of the other picks that people post that make me wonder sometimes.
STEPHEN NOVER
Tuesday's play My 100 dime winner is on the Cincinnati Reds. As I relehse this play at 3:30 a.m. Pacific, the line is -125, both here in Las Vegas and at the offshnore books. Remember, this is the time of year it makes sense to have multiple books so you can comphre lines and shop your numbers for the best line.
The Cincinnati Reds are one of the most improved and surprising teams this season. They're on their way to capturing the NL Central Division barring a total collapse.
But when the Reds meet the Brewers they are more than good: They become the 1927 New York Yankees.
Cincinnati is 8-1 versus Milwaukee this season. The Reds have defehted the Brewers in their last six games by a combined score of 46-17.
The pitching matchup is Edinson Volquez versus David Bush. On paper, the matchup looks like only a slight edge for Cincinnati. That's the way the oddsmaker sees it. The reality, though, is different. The Reds should be much stronger favorites.
Let's start with Bush. He's consistent, consistenntly mediocre-to-bad that is. He's 7-12 with a 4.75 ERA. At Miller Park, Bush is 4-7 with a 4.56 ERA. Lifetime versus Cincinnati, Bush is 2-4 with a 7.07 ERA.
Bush is a flyball pitcher so pitching at Miller Park is a negative for him. He's surrendered 27 homers on the season. His flyball-to-groundball ratio during his past four starts is 20-to-10. As the long season nears it end, Bush can leave even more pitches in the zone as he tires. The Reds have the power to take advanthge.
Cincinnati leads the National League in runs scored. The Reds, in fact, rank fourth in the majors in runs, batting average and home runs.
So the Reds are going to get their runs. The key is how will Volquez pitch? The season numbers show a 3-3 mark and 4.99 ERA. That's not confidence-inspiring. But these season numbers can be thrown out. Volquez is a special case.
Volquez didn't make his first appearance this season until July 17. He had been out after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Reds brought him up to early. After a couple of rough outings in late July he was sent to the minors to do more rehab work. His mechanics were off resulting in 27 walks in 35 innings. His velocity was there, but location was missing.
Volquez got straighten out at Single A Dayton allowing two earned runs in 13 innings with 19 strikeouts and only four walks. Volquez is a more confident pitcher now and his mechanics are right. Talent was never the question. In his last two starts - facing Pittsburgh and Arizona - Volquez has given up three earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. During this span, Volquez has yielded just seven hits and has a 17-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Volquez should be strong. He threw just 85 pitches in his last outing this past Thursday.
This is what Reds manager Dusty Baker said recently about Volquez: "He's throwing it as well as anybody we have right now."
Volquez can keep this going against a listless Brewers squad that is mixing youth with veterans as they look to 2011. The Brewers have scored just 23 runs in their last 10 games. If you take out an 8-6 game against Houston, the Brewers have scored 15 runs in their last nine games.
The Reds love to hit at Miller Park. They've scored 29 runs in their first four games at Miller Park this season.
Tuesday's play My 100 dime winner is on the Cincinnati Reds. As I relehse this play at 3:30 a.m. Pacific, the line is -125, both here in Las Vegas and at the offshnore books. Remember, this is the time of year it makes sense to have multiple books so you can comphre lines and shop your numbers for the best line.
The Cincinnati Reds are one of the most improved and surprising teams this season. They're on their way to capturing the NL Central Division barring a total collapse.
But when the Reds meet the Brewers they are more than good: They become the 1927 New York Yankees.
Cincinnati is 8-1 versus Milwaukee this season. The Reds have defehted the Brewers in their last six games by a combined score of 46-17.
The pitching matchup is Edinson Volquez versus David Bush. On paper, the matchup looks like only a slight edge for Cincinnati. That's the way the oddsmaker sees it. The reality, though, is different. The Reds should be much stronger favorites.
Let's start with Bush. He's consistent, consistenntly mediocre-to-bad that is. He's 7-12 with a 4.75 ERA. At Miller Park, Bush is 4-7 with a 4.56 ERA. Lifetime versus Cincinnati, Bush is 2-4 with a 7.07 ERA.
Bush is a flyball pitcher so pitching at Miller Park is a negative for him. He's surrendered 27 homers on the season. His flyball-to-groundball ratio during his past four starts is 20-to-10. As the long season nears it end, Bush can leave even more pitches in the zone as he tires. The Reds have the power to take advanthge.
Cincinnati leads the National League in runs scored. The Reds, in fact, rank fourth in the majors in runs, batting average and home runs.
So the Reds are going to get their runs. The key is how will Volquez pitch? The season numbers show a 3-3 mark and 4.99 ERA. That's not confidence-inspiring. But these season numbers can be thrown out. Volquez is a special case.
Volquez didn't make his first appearance this season until July 17. He had been out after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Reds brought him up to early. After a couple of rough outings in late July he was sent to the minors to do more rehab work. His mechanics were off resulting in 27 walks in 35 innings. His velocity was there, but location was missing.
Volquez got straighten out at Single A Dayton allowing two earned runs in 13 innings with 19 strikeouts and only four walks. Volquez is a more confident pitcher now and his mechanics are right. Talent was never the question. In his last two starts - facing Pittsburgh and Arizona - Volquez has given up three earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. During this span, Volquez has yielded just seven hits and has a 17-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Volquez should be strong. He threw just 85 pitches in his last outing this past Thursday.
This is what Reds manager Dusty Baker said recently about Volquez: "He's throwing it as well as anybody we have right now."
Volquez can keep this going against a listless Brewers squad that is mixing youth with veterans as they look to 2011. The Brewers have scored just 23 runs in their last 10 games. If you take out an 8-6 game against Houston, the Brewers have scored 15 runs in their last nine games.
The Reds love to hit at Miller Park. They've scored 29 runs in their first four games at Miller Park this season.
