jeff benton 2-0 yesterday plus 30 dimes plus $300... overall, 115-136-7 minus 460 dimes.
Jeff Benton
Monday's Action
15 DIME baseball selection is on COLORADO -1½ runs (run-line) over San Diego from Coors Field. As I go live with today’s plays, the Rockies are catahing +125 on the run line across the board. Run-line plays require liseting starting pitchers, so San Diego’s Jon Garland and Colorado’s Jason Hammel must start. If either doesn’t pitch, this release is VOID!
5 DIME baseball selection is on KANSAS CITY over Oakland from Kaufmann Stadium. As I go live with today’s plays, Vegas and offshrre books have this as a solid pick-em price. Note that when placing your action, you MUST list Zack Greinke as the Royals’ starting pitcher. If Greinke doesn’t start, this release is VOID!
ROCKIES 1½ runs (Listing Garland and Hammel as starting pitchers)
Huge victory for San Diego in Coors Field last night, as it cooled off Colorado with a 6-4 victory, ending the Rockies’ 10-game winning streak and putting themselves back atop the N.L. West staadings (half-game ahead of San Francisco and 2½ games ahead of the Rockies). Still, if you take away a three-game home sweep of the crappy Dodgers (who have quit on the season), the Padres are just 2-13 in their last 15 games overall. And of those 13 defeats, 10 have been by more than one run.
Even though San Diego continues to sport a solid 39-30 road record, it hasn’t won consecutive road games against a playoff contender since beating Tampa Bay on June 22 and 23. At the same time, you have to go back to July 27-28 for the last time the Rockies lost consecutive home games (shockingly, against the lowly Pirates). In fact, only twice all season has Colorado lost as many as two in a row in the same hoemestand.
Of course, no team in baseball has been better at protecting its home turf than the Rockies, who are 50-23 at Coors Field (13-3 in the last 16), thanks in large part to an offense that is crushing the baseball to the tune of a .302 home batting average.
The Rockies are 17-5 in their last 22 games overall, and they’re still 10-5 against the Padres this season (San Diego hasn’t won back-to-back meetings all year). As for the run-line aspect of this play, note that 12 of the 15 meetings this season – including nine of the last 10 – have been decided by more than one run.
Finally, the Rockies have the better pitcher on the mound in Jason Hammel. Colorado is 5-0 in his last five starts and 7-1 in his last eight outings (with Hammel going at least six innings in seven of those eight games). Additionally, Hammel is 7-1 with a 3.67 ERA at Coors Field, with the Rockies going 11-3 in his 14 home starts this year and 21-6 in his last 27 home starts dating to last year. And in his three starts against San Diego since June 29, Hammel is 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA (all three wins by multiple runs).
Meanwhile, San Diego’s Jon Garland has hit a wall (0-3, 6.19 ERA last three starts); he’s been far less comfrrtable on the road (6-6, 4.04 ERA) than at home (7-5, 3.10 ERA); and he’s 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA in two starts against the Rockies this season – a 4-2 loss in Colorado on April 11 and a 6-2 home loss to Hammel on Sept. 4.
With Hammel leading the way on the mound and the Rockies’ powerful offense (.311 team batting average last 10 games) backing him with plenty of run support, Colorado gets back on track and tightens the N.L. West race a little more with a blowout victory over the punchless Padres (batting .214 in their last 10 games).
ROYALS (Listing Greinke as K.C.'s starting pitcher)
Obviously, this hasn’t been the kind of season Zack Greinke was hoping for following his dominating Cy Young performance in 2009. He’s just 8-12 with a 3.90 ERA, and he’s received arguably the worst run support of any top-flight starter in baseball (the Royals average just 3.2 runs when Greinke pitches).
All this said, I can’t pass up a guy with Grienke’s stuff at home at this kind of pick-em price, even if it is against an Oakland team that has dominated Kansas City this year (6-1 in seven games) and even if I do respect A’s starter Gio Gonzalez (14-8, 3.16 ERA, including 5-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last five starts).
For one thing, Greinke hasn’t been pitching horribly of late – he’s allowed 15 runs in his last six starts covering 44 1/3 innings (3.05 ERA), and he’s gone at least six innings in eight straight starts, including four games when he pitched exactly eight innings. And even though Greinke suffered a 5-1 home loss to Gonzalez and the A’s in mid July, he’s still 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his career against Oakland (12 games, eight starts).
Back to Gonzalez. The southpaw is obviously rolling right now, and he was terrific when he matched up against Greinke two months ago (one run, seven hits, one walk in seven innings). However, in two previous starts against the Royals, he gave up nine runs (eight earned) in 9 1/3 innings. Also, it should be noted that Gonzalez has some start splits, as he’s 8-3 with a 2.70 ERA at home but 6-5 with a 3.61 ERA on the road, and he’s 7-1 with a 2.10 ERA in 10 day games (Oakland is 9-1) but 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA in 20 nighttime starts (Oakland is 8-11).
Bottom line: I know all the stats and trends point to the A’s – including the fact that Oakland has won 61 of the last 93 overall meetings in this rivalry and 36 of the last 51 meetings in Kansas City – but again, to get Greinke at this kind of price is too good to pass up. And for what it’s worth, there’s a “homer” umpire working the dish tonight, as the home team is 25-9 in Mike Muchlinski’s last 34 games behind the plate, 4-0 in his last four games involving the Royals and 6-1 in his last seven games involving the A’s.
