Tony Finn
BASEBALL PLAYS
MLB GAME OF THE WEEK (9-2 RUN)
Game: (977) New York Yankees at (978) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Aug 30 2016 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Kansas City Royals +128
View Analysis
We have made hay on the Kansas City Royals the last three weeks cashing on four of the five plays we have released with the Ned Yost led troupe. The Royals and the Yankees remain in the playoff this 2016 and while it isn't a surprise that KC has found their health and their mojo the same can't be said about the Yankees. This is a group that has youth a less talented bullpen than a month ago due to trades and have a handful of player personnel in the everyday starting lineup that are hitting less than .240 and only two teams in all of baseball do a poorer job of hitting with RISP than does New York.
Yankees send Masahiro Tanaka (11-4, 3.11 ERA) to the hill at the "K" to oppose Royals Edinson Volquez (10-10, 4.88)
Tanaka pitched a gem against the Mariners in Seattle yesterday, working seven innings and allowing no earned runs along with five strikeouts. Tanaka has a 3.28 FIP for the year and has been fortunate to continue his success with a declining strike out ratio. His K-rate is down to 7.7 per 9 but has remained healthy despite suffering some serious statistical regression since his “rookie” season. Tanaka recent success has come via limiting his free passes. The Bronx right-hander has issued just one walk while recording 30 strikeouts in his last 28 frames (his four game winning streak). The righty received a no-decision in his lone career start against the Royals. His style isn't a perfect fit against a Royals offense that doesn't walk and excels against pitchers that work the strike zone. In that lone start against KC Tanaka allowed six runs and seven hits over seven innings of work, this back in early May.
Volquez has not lost in four consecutive starts and despite being the victim of poor defense by his mates, something that doesn't happen often to a Yost squad, allowed two unearned runs and three hits over five innings in a victory at Miami. Despite an ERA that is a run and a half higher than last season, and nearly two runs higher than 2014, Volquez has not suffered or offered evidence that he is a different pitcher with declining peripherals, not according to his charted xFIP. Volquez' xFIP totals for the past six seasons, with his ERA --- are in parentheses -- and as follows: 4.08 (5.71), 4.20 (4.14), 4.07 (5.71), 4.20 (3.04), 4.26 (3.55), 4.44 (4.95) and ignoring his inconsistent ERA (not worthy of one minute of my attention) and focusing on his xFIP is what my investing style is all about.
The key in tonight’s' game is multi-leveled. The Royals are playing with a swagger, a confidence that made them world champs a year ago, and Eddy V faces a flyball heavy Yankees lineup at the K, along with a group that strikes out at a high percentage since the All-Star break trade deadline. Pitcher friendly Kauffman, combined with the Royals outfield defense, makes the Royals a nightmare matchup for New York.
Tonight we get the best of both worlds. We receive Tanaka who is not a good fit against the free swinging Royals lineup, a red hot one at that, and Volquez' ground ball tendencies against a fly-ball hitting Yankee lineup in a pitcher friendly park -- AND at an underdog price
Tanaka's K's have dipped steadily each year he's been in the majors and the one variable that the Royals have excelled in this year is against pitchers that throw to contact, which is what Tanaka has become.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS +128
