jeff benton tuesday
0-1 yesterday minus 15 dimes or minus $150. overall, 84-107-3 minus 460 dimes
Tuesday's Winners ...
20 DIME seleation on <b>NEW YORK YANKEES</b> over Toronto in the middle game of a three-game series at Yankee Stadium. New York is a solid -150 favorite both here in Vegas and offeshore. Note that you must list Dustin Moseley (New York) and Ricky Romero (Toronto) as the starting pitchers. If either does not go, this play is VOID!
10 DIME selection on the <b>NEW YORK METS</b> over the Braves in the middle game of a three-game series at Turner Field. The Mets are catching between +115 and +135 in the underdog role tonight, so there are plenty of opprrtunities to get a decent take-back on New York. Note that you must list R.A. Dickey (New York) and Derek Lowe (Atlanta) as the starting pitchers. If either does not go, this play is VOID!
<b>Yankees</b>
The Blue Jays, who knocked off the Yankees last night 8-6, have yet to win consecutive games at new Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, New York – which is 34-17 in the Bronx – has lost as many as two in a row at home just three times all season. On top of that, the Yankees, who have lost their last two games to Tampa Bay (Sunday) and Toronto, haven’t dropped three in a row since June 16-18 in intealeague play (a stretch of 38 games). And they haven’t lost three in a row to American League opponents since May 18-20.
So that right there tells you the odds are heavily in New York’s favor tonight. What also favors the Yankees here is the pitching matchup. Toronto lefty Ricky Romero has had a very strong season when pitching in Canada, where he’s 5-2 with a 2.18 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 65 strikeouts in 66 innings. Take him south of the border and it’s a completeely different story, as he’s 3-5 with a 4.62 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP and 59 strikeouts in 72 innings.
Romero’s worst and shortest road outing of the season? You guessed it: at Yankee Stadium on July 3, when he yielded eight runs on seven hits in 2 2/3 innings of an 11-3 loss. For his career, he’s 1-2 with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP (47 baserunners in 27 1/3 innings) in five starts against the Bronx Bombers. Going back to Sept. 3 of last season, he’s faced the Yankees three times and surrendered 17 runs (15 earned) in 15 innings.
Clearly the Yankees – who are batting .292 against southpaws at home this season and .324 against lefties over their last 10 games – have figured out Romero. And I don’t expect anything different tonight. As for New York’s Dustin Moseley, he was terrific in his first start of the season on Thursday at Cleveland, giving up just one run, four hits and two walks in six innings, earning an 11-4 victory. That came on the heels of a stellar 4 2/3-inning relief aprearance against Kansas City on June 24 (he faced 16 batters and yielded just one hit and one walk).
Take away one pour outing against Tampa Bay (four runs in three innings), and the right-hander has allowed just two runs and six hits in 13 2/3 innings with New York. Also, he has three career appearances (one start) against Toronto, and he’s allowed just two runs in eight innings (2.25 ERA).
Despite last night’s result, New York is still on positive runs of 18-8 overall, 75-27 at home, 6-0 against left-handed starters and 56-26 against A.L. East foes. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have dropped eight of 10 as an underdog in any venue, 13 of 17 as a road underdog, five of Romero’s last seven starts overall, six of his last eight road starts and five straight when he takes the mound as an underdog.
<b>Mets</b>
Obviously, the Mets aren’t playing very good baseball right now, having lost 16 of their last 22 games, including three of four to the Braves. But then again, Atlanta isn’t exactly red hot either, as it is just 5-7 in its last 12 contests and 8-9 since the All-Star break. Also, despite the Braves’ recent run of success in this rivalry, they’re still 4-5 against the Mets this season.
But more than anything what has me on the Mets today is the fact they have a big edge on the mound. The numbers don’t lie: Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey is 7-4 with a 2.32 ERA in 14 starts for the Mets, and that includes a 2.81 ERA on the road. Atlanta’s Derek Lowe is 10-9 with a 4.58 ERA overall, including a 4.15 ERA at home and a 5.27 ERA in night games.
When you look at recent form, Dickey outshines Lowe by a mile. He posted a 1.51 ERA in six July starts, giving up just seven earned runs, 33 hits and nine walks in 41 2/3 innings. In his last six starts dating to June 29, Lowe has a 5.03 ERA, yielding 19 runs, 40 hits and 12 walks in 34 innings. What’s more, the Braves have lost six of Lowe’s last seven starts, producing just 12 runs total in the six defeats. And Lowe is not only 0-2 against New York this season (3-2 home loss; 3-0 road loss), he’s gotten plastered in his last five starts against the Mets, allowing 18 runs in 23 innings.
Atlanta has not had consecutive victories on consecutive days since prior to the All-Star break, and in addition to going 1-6 in Lowe’s last seven outings, the Braves have lost his last five starts against N.L. East rivals. Meanwhile, the Mets, for whatever reason, have excelled on Tuesdays, going 12-3 dating back to mid April.