MTi Sports
Marlins at Nationals
Pick: Marlins +125
Ricky Nolasco was butchered in his last start, allowing nine runs in one and a third innings. After the game he said, “The worst start of my career," ... The thing I tell myself is you can't let this affect my next start. I have to go out there in five days and try to get back to where I was." We’re betting he will.
The Marlins are 13-0 on the road with Nolasco when they lost the last time he started and he allowed fewer than three walks in that start.
He is 3-0 in this spot this season, with three quality starts. This has long been a great spot to back Florida. They are 26-14 as a DOG in the first game of a road series when they are off a win. In their last 14 in this spot, theya re a solid 11-3.
The Nats are reverting to form after their brief excursion to over 500 for the season. They are 4-9 their last 13, and have not done well vs a team on a winning streak. In fact, the Nationals are 51-105 when playing a night game vs a team that has won at least their last two games, costing their backers a whopping 39.04 net games.
The Nats did beat Nolasco the last time they faced him, but this is not a good omen for Washington. They are 7-20 when they won the last time they faced their opponent’s starting pitcher, including 0-4 THIS season when they are the favorite in this spot.
With Washington a money-burning 22-31 as a FAVORITE in the first game of a home series, we’ll grab the price.
MTi’s FORECAST: Florida 6 WASHINGTON 3