Keith Martin Computer Plays
Top plays
none
Medium plays
Chicago Cubs Over 7.5 3
Minnesota Twins (M: -137.0) 3
Regular plays
New York Yankees (M: -205.0)
Cincinnati Reds (M: -180.0)
Philadelphia Phillie (M: -106.0)
Tampa Bay Rays (M: -125.0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (M: 119.0)
Milwaukee Brewers (M: 108.0)
Oakland Athletics (M: -106.0)
Texas Rangers Under 9.0
Boston Red Sox Under 8.5
Milwaukee Brewers Over 9.0
Chicago White Sox (M: -124.0)
Top plays
none
Medium plays
Chicago Cubs Over 7.5 3
Minnesota Twins (M: -137.0) 3
Regular plays
New York Yankees (M: -205.0)
Cincinnati Reds (M: -180.0)
Philadelphia Phillie (M: -106.0)
Tampa Bay Rays (M: -125.0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (M: 119.0)
Milwaukee Brewers (M: 108.0)
Oakland Athletics (M: -106.0)
Texas Rangers Under 9.0
Boston Red Sox Under 8.5
Milwaukee Brewers Over 9.0
Chicago White Sox (M: -124.0)
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Winners Inc.</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Tuesday, July 01, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Today in Baseball we are featuring our 5000* BASEBALL WINNER! You can get this WINNER for just $25 and you are GUARANTEED TO WIN or you will not be charged! We are currently on a REMARKABLE 91-42 run with all of our guaranteed selections including 44-17 our last 61 selections! So far this year in Baseball we are 56-27 for PLUS 20.8 UNITS!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>7/1/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>5000* BASEBALL WINNER
Florida w/Hendrikson -140 7:10 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Oscarxena Sports
LA Dodgers +1.22 (3 Unit Play)
These two pitchers going today have been having trouble going deep into games but I just feel that Clayton Kershaw has been having some bad luck lately and that the Dodgers will get to Wandy Rodriguez tonight. Kershaw so far this year has a 4.15 ERA on the road in only 13 innings of work and a rather high WHIP of 1.77 but if this kid is able to get his control down he is going to be very tough to hit. The Astros have never faced him and I look for Kershaw to throw well tonight. The Astros are countering with Wandy Rodriguez who usually pitches very well at home and that is evidenced by his 1.89 ERA in 38 innings of work but he has been having trouble going deep into games lately although he did pitch well in his last outing. Today's HP umpire is Fieldin Culbreth and he has favored the away team all year as those teams are 10-5 so far this year and also Rodriguez has pitched two games with Culbreth behind home plate and lost both. This line appears fishy to me and I look for the Dodgers to win this evening.
NY Mets +1.24 (3 Unit Play)
How low can the Mets go? They have to resort to Tony Armas Jr. for a start here tonight in St. Louis but that may not be such a horrible thing as Armas has been solid so far down in Triple A New Orleans. He is only 5-7 so far this year but he has a 2.54 ERA in 102 2/3 innings of work and has a 1.02 WHIP with 88 SO's compared to only 20 walks this year. Armas has also had some history against the Cardinals going 5-2 in games started for his team with a 4.19 ERA. The Cardinals will have Todd Wellemeyer on the mound who has been battling some elbow problems lately and although he threw well against the Tigers last game he was removed rather early after only 5 innings and still might have some lingering effects that the Cardinals are not mentioning. The Mets have went 6-2 with HP umpire Tom Hallion lately while the Cardinals are only 4-6 and Armas has actually worked one game with him so although the play is risky I like the Mets as underdogs here tonight.
Chicago Cubs/San Francisco Under 7 1/2 -1.03 (3 Unit Play)
The Cubs are missing big bats in their lineups and have a tough task tonight in taking on Matt Cain who has been notorious for having very good second halfs and he gets the start tonight for the Giants. Cain's numbers are not outstanding as he has a 4.47 ERA at home this year in 50 1/3 innings of work but he has pitched fairly well against Chicago in his career going 3-2 with a 1.091 WHIP. The Cubs are countering with Jason Marquis who had a horrendous outing last time but on the road so far this year he has recorded a 3.51 ERA in 41 innings of work and has a 1.46 WHIP. These two teams are weak hitting teams right now and may have problems scoring runs tonight with an Under umpire like Bill Miller who has umpired 9 Unders this year compared to only 6 Overs. Marquis has worked with Miller five times already in his career and is 4-1 with 3 games going Under with a push while Cain worked one game which was an exhibition game with no total set. Look for not a lot of baserunners this evening and an Under game tonight.
LA Dodgers +1.22 (3 Unit Play)
These two pitchers going today have been having trouble going deep into games but I just feel that Clayton Kershaw has been having some bad luck lately and that the Dodgers will get to Wandy Rodriguez tonight. Kershaw so far this year has a 4.15 ERA on the road in only 13 innings of work and a rather high WHIP of 1.77 but if this kid is able to get his control down he is going to be very tough to hit. The Astros have never faced him and I look for Kershaw to throw well tonight. The Astros are countering with Wandy Rodriguez who usually pitches very well at home and that is evidenced by his 1.89 ERA in 38 innings of work but he has been having trouble going deep into games lately although he did pitch well in his last outing. Today's HP umpire is Fieldin Culbreth and he has favored the away team all year as those teams are 10-5 so far this year and also Rodriguez has pitched two games with Culbreth behind home plate and lost both. This line appears fishy to me and I look for the Dodgers to win this evening.
NY Mets +1.24 (3 Unit Play)
How low can the Mets go? They have to resort to Tony Armas Jr. for a start here tonight in St. Louis but that may not be such a horrible thing as Armas has been solid so far down in Triple A New Orleans. He is only 5-7 so far this year but he has a 2.54 ERA in 102 2/3 innings of work and has a 1.02 WHIP with 88 SO's compared to only 20 walks this year. Armas has also had some history against the Cardinals going 5-2 in games started for his team with a 4.19 ERA. The Cardinals will have Todd Wellemeyer on the mound who has been battling some elbow problems lately and although he threw well against the Tigers last game he was removed rather early after only 5 innings and still might have some lingering effects that the Cardinals are not mentioning. The Mets have went 6-2 with HP umpire Tom Hallion lately while the Cardinals are only 4-6 and Armas has actually worked one game with him so although the play is risky I like the Mets as underdogs here tonight.
Chicago Cubs/San Francisco Under 7 1/2 -1.03 (3 Unit Play)
The Cubs are missing big bats in their lineups and have a tough task tonight in taking on Matt Cain who has been notorious for having very good second halfs and he gets the start tonight for the Giants. Cain's numbers are not outstanding as he has a 4.47 ERA at home this year in 50 1/3 innings of work but he has pitched fairly well against Chicago in his career going 3-2 with a 1.091 WHIP. The Cubs are countering with Jason Marquis who had a horrendous outing last time but on the road so far this year he has recorded a 3.51 ERA in 41 innings of work and has a 1.46 WHIP. These two teams are weak hitting teams right now and may have problems scoring runs tonight with an Under umpire like Bill Miller who has umpired 9 Unders this year compared to only 6 Overs. Marquis has worked with Miller five times already in his career and is 4-1 with 3 games going Under with a push while Cain worked one game which was an exhibition game with no total set. Look for not a lot of baserunners this evening and an Under game tonight.
<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">WUNDERDOG
Game: Washington at Florida (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Florida -137 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.2)
The Nats have never been a good road team and this season is no different. Washington have posted an 8-18 mark on the road against .500+ teams, and are just 11-22 overall in their last 33 games. Collin Balester will make his Major League debut tonight for the Nats, but his numbers at AAA Columbus aren't outstanding. He has pitched to a 4 ERA and allowed 14 HR'S in just 78 innings. Like the Marlins at home here.
Game: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston +108 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.2)
It's not very often when you get a pitcher that has completely dominated an opponent over his career at plus money and backed by a excellent team as well. Tim Wakefield has amassed a 19-3 record against the D-Rays over his career. It is difficult to neglect the value in a very good Sox team backed by those kind of numbers. Matt Garza has pitched well of late, but his numbers against the Sox aren't very appealing this year, with just two starts and a 6.97 ERA. This is still a sub .500 pitcher for his career. The value lies with the Sox here.
Game: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Detroit +125 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 5)
This is hot vs. hot, or is it? The Twins hot has them playing over their heads while the Tigers' hot has them playing as everyone knew they could and then some. The Tigers have won six straight games and stand at 18-4 over their last 22. After making some noise with their 12-1 run, the Twins appear to be settling down into the average team they are, losing two of their last three and game one to the Tigers last night. The perception here is where the value lies. The Twins aren't as good as they have played, and have already stepped down from that level while the Tigers are a very good team and playing at their best right now. The value is evident as the Tigers take the field as a dog is just to hard to pass up at this point.
Game: Cleveland at Chicago (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland -128 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)
The White Sox aren't just a hot team right now winning five straight, they are becoming a very good team as indicated by a long run at 28-15 over their last 43 games. The Sox have won all four home games against Cleveland this season. The Indians have become a horrible team as they have mirrored what the Sox have done, but in a losing way. Cleveland has gone gone 15-28 over their last 43 and just 7-18 over their last 25 road games. Cliff Lee vs. John Danks is basically a tossup, but the White Sox are finding ways to win while the Indians, ways to lose. We will back the Sox for their fifth straight at home over The Tribe.
Game: San Diego at Colorado (9:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Colorado -1.5 runs +121 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)
Aaron Cook goes for Colorado today and San Diego can't be glad to see him. Cook is 7-1 with a 1.72 ERA in his last ten vs. the Pads. He's never lost at home to San Diego. Overall he's 10-5 on the season and owns a 3.25 ERA at home. San Diego averages just 3.7 runs per game (3.6 in night games) while Colorado scores 4.8 per game at home. San Diego is just 37-47 this season to the run line. Cook is 28-15 to the run line the past two seasons. He's also 20-7 the past decade to the run line vs. teams that average 7+ strikeouts per game. We like the Rockies to win by 2+ runs here.
Game: Toronto at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toronto -129 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)
No other way to put it than the Mariners are a bad baseball team. They were shutout last night and ran their season total scoring two runs or less to 25 games. It has even been hard to win games when they get good pitching either home or away, as their home mark has been even worse then their away record. Toronto has been up and down all year, but right now they are definately up, winning six of eight, and Jesse Litsch has shown signs of coming out of a few-start funk. This is still a pitcher with an AL ERA for his career of under four, so against a punchless Mariners' lineup we look for a top-notch performance from him and a Jays win.
Game: Chicago at San Francisco (10:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Francisco -120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
While the Cubs have been extraordinary at home posting a 33-10 mark, they certainly have been less than ordinary on the road at 17-23. Recently, they are just 5-8 in their last 13 overall and not playing well at the moment. Jason Marquis got out quickly, posting an ERA in the mid 3's over his first four starts and has since pitched to a 5.5 ERA. Matt Cain has deserved a better fate pitching 11 games allowing three runs or less, but just four wins to show for it. Cubs look ripe to be had on the road, and Marquis might be the kind of pitcher the Giants make some noise against
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"><TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smalltext width="100%" colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext id=modified_214610 vAlign=bottom></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Game: Washington at Florida (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Florida -137 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.2)
The Nats have never been a good road team and this season is no different. Washington have posted an 8-18 mark on the road against .500+ teams, and are just 11-22 overall in their last 33 games. Collin Balester will make his Major League debut tonight for the Nats, but his numbers at AAA Columbus aren't outstanding. He has pitched to a 4 ERA and allowed 14 HR'S in just 78 innings. Like the Marlins at home here.
Game: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston +108 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.2)
It's not very often when you get a pitcher that has completely dominated an opponent over his career at plus money and backed by a excellent team as well. Tim Wakefield has amassed a 19-3 record against the D-Rays over his career. It is difficult to neglect the value in a very good Sox team backed by those kind of numbers. Matt Garza has pitched well of late, but his numbers against the Sox aren't very appealing this year, with just two starts and a 6.97 ERA. This is still a sub .500 pitcher for his career. The value lies with the Sox here.
Game: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Detroit +125 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 5)
This is hot vs. hot, or is it? The Twins hot has them playing over their heads while the Tigers' hot has them playing as everyone knew they could and then some. The Tigers have won six straight games and stand at 18-4 over their last 22. After making some noise with their 12-1 run, the Twins appear to be settling down into the average team they are, losing two of their last three and game one to the Tigers last night. The perception here is where the value lies. The Twins aren't as good as they have played, and have already stepped down from that level while the Tigers are a very good team and playing at their best right now. The value is evident as the Tigers take the field as a dog is just to hard to pass up at this point.
Game: Cleveland at Chicago (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland -128 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)
The White Sox aren't just a hot team right now winning five straight, they are becoming a very good team as indicated by a long run at 28-15 over their last 43 games. The Sox have won all four home games against Cleveland this season. The Indians have become a horrible team as they have mirrored what the Sox have done, but in a losing way. Cleveland has gone gone 15-28 over their last 43 and just 7-18 over their last 25 road games. Cliff Lee vs. John Danks is basically a tossup, but the White Sox are finding ways to win while the Indians, ways to lose. We will back the Sox for their fifth straight at home over The Tribe.
Game: San Diego at Colorado (9:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Colorado -1.5 runs +121 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)
Aaron Cook goes for Colorado today and San Diego can't be glad to see him. Cook is 7-1 with a 1.72 ERA in his last ten vs. the Pads. He's never lost at home to San Diego. Overall he's 10-5 on the season and owns a 3.25 ERA at home. San Diego averages just 3.7 runs per game (3.6 in night games) while Colorado scores 4.8 per game at home. San Diego is just 37-47 this season to the run line. Cook is 28-15 to the run line the past two seasons. He's also 20-7 the past decade to the run line vs. teams that average 7+ strikeouts per game. We like the Rockies to win by 2+ runs here.
Game: Toronto at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toronto -129 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)
No other way to put it than the Mariners are a bad baseball team. They were shutout last night and ran their season total scoring two runs or less to 25 games. It has even been hard to win games when they get good pitching either home or away, as their home mark has been even worse then their away record. Toronto has been up and down all year, but right now they are definately up, winning six of eight, and Jesse Litsch has shown signs of coming out of a few-start funk. This is still a pitcher with an AL ERA for his career of under four, so against a punchless Mariners' lineup we look for a top-notch performance from him and a Jays win.
Game: Chicago at San Francisco (10:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Francisco -120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
While the Cubs have been extraordinary at home posting a 33-10 mark, they certainly have been less than ordinary on the road at 17-23. Recently, they are just 5-8 in their last 13 overall and not playing well at the moment. Jason Marquis got out quickly, posting an ERA in the mid 3's over his first four starts and has since pitched to a 5.5 ERA. Matt Cain has deserved a better fate pitching 11 games allowing three runs or less, but just four wins to show for it. Cubs look ripe to be had on the road, and Marquis might be the kind of pitcher the Giants make some noise against
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"><TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smalltext width="100%" colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext id=modified_214610 vAlign=bottom></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
3:45 cst
Pit-1 Over-1
Cin-1 Under
Phi-6 Over-1
Atl-5 Under-1
Wash-2 Over
Fla-4 Under
Lad-3 Over
Hou-14 Under-4
Mets-2 Over-2
Stl-12 Under
Sd -1 Over
Col-6 Under
Mil-2 Over
Az-5 Under
Cubs-10 Over
Sf-3 Under-1
Tex-1 Over-1
Nyy-6 Under-1
Kc Over
Bal-4 Under
Bos-6 Over
Tb-5 Under-2
Det-2 Over
Min-5 Under
W.sox-7 Over-2
Clev-5 Under-1
Oak-7 Over-1
Laa-5 Under-3
Tor-2 Over
Sea Under
Pit-1 Over-1
Cin-1 Under
Phi-6 Over-1
Atl-5 Under-1
Wash-2 Over
Fla-4 Under
Lad-3 Over
Hou-14 Under-4
Mets-2 Over-2
Stl-12 Under
Sd -1 Over
Col-6 Under
Mil-2 Over
Az-5 Under
Cubs-10 Over
Sf-3 Under-1
Tex-1 Over-1
Nyy-6 Under-1
Kc Over
Bal-4 Under
Bos-6 Over
Tb-5 Under-2
Det-2 Over
Min-5 Under
W.sox-7 Over-2
Clev-5 Under-1
Oak-7 Over-1
Laa-5 Under-3
Tor-2 Over
Sea Under
New guy ive been following since he was 2-0 he his now 14-4.....gl
The Prez
Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros Jul 1 2008 8:05PM
PICK: Houston Astros
Your pick will be graded at: -130 WSEX
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: Prez' 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
REASON FOR PICK:
LA Dodgers at Houston Astros
Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw vs. Wandy Rodriguez
Umpire: Fieldin Culbreth
Conditions: 94 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 mph
Clayton Kershaw (0-2, 4.36 ERA) has yet to win a major league start, and tonight's task against the Astros will take a near perfect effort to record that first win. The 20-year-old left-hander struggled in his last outing, allowing two runs, six hits and four walks in four-plus innings Thursday in a 2-0 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Kershaw is winless in 16 professional starts dating to Aug. 20, 2007, with Double-A Jacksonville. The rookie hasn't received much run support - getting only eight runs in his seven starts -- and isn't likely to get much tonight against the Houston left-hander (Wandy Rodriguez) who is stellar when pitching at home.
Kershaw has an advantage with a generous strike zone from home plate umpire Culbreth tonight, and no Houston hitter has any first hand experience against the Dodgers rookie. (advantage Kershaw the first 2-to-3 times through the batting order).
Wandy Rodriguez (3-3, 2.58) looks to win consecutive starts for the first time this season. The left-hander matched a career high with nine strikeouts and limited Texas to one run and five hits over a season-best eight innings Thursday in a 7-2 victory. Rodriguez is 2-2 with a 1.89 ERA pitching in Minute Maid Park. He has yielded one earned run or none in five of six starts at home.
Rodriguez versus the LAD hitters:
Angel M. Berroa is 0-for-3
Andre Ethier is 0-for-2
Matt Kemp is 1-for-2
James Loney is 0-for-3
Russell Martin is 0-for-3
Jason Repko is 1-for-3
The only bat in the Dodgers lineup that has had any success against Wandy is Jeff Kent who is 3-for-5 with two doubles and a home run. Expect Rodriguez to pitch carefully to the ex-Astro.
Both teams have been more productive against left-handed starters, however, tonight's umpire and conditions should keep both offenses honest.
Fieldin Culbreth has always been pitcher-friendly, but fair. The hitters in the Bigs know he has a wide zone and go to the plate with the understanding they have to swing the bat. Culbreth gives both starters room to work tonight, but he is especially a good fit with the veteran Rodriguez.
3 UNIT Play on Houston and Rodriguez
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Los Angeles Dodgers
Houston Astros OFF
OFF
8.5
-129 -110
8.5
-130 -105
Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros Jul 1 2008 8:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 8.5 Sportsbook
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: Prez' 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
REASON FOR PICK:
LA Dodgers at Houston Astros
Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw vs. Wandy Rodriguez
Umpire: Fieldin Culbreth
Conditions: 94 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 mph
Clayton Kershaw (0-2, 4.36 ERA) has yet to win a major league start, and tonight's task against the Astros will take a near perfect effort to record that first win. The 20-year-old left-hander struggled in his last outing, allowing two runs, six hits and four walks in four-plus innings Thursday in a 2-0 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Kershaw is winless in 16 professional starts dating to Aug. 20, 2007, with Double-A Jacksonville. The rookie hasn't received much run support - getting only eight runs in his seven starts -- and isn't likely to get much tonight against the Houston left-hander (Wandy Rodriguez) who is stellar when pitching at home.
Kershaw has an advantage with a generous strike zone from home plate umpire Culbreth tonight, and no Houston hitter has any first hand experience against the Dodgers rookie. (advantage Kershaw the first 2-to-3 times through the batting order).
Wandy Rodriguez (3-3, 2.58) looks to win consecutive starts for the first time this season. The left-hander matched a career high with nine strikeouts and limited Texas to one run and five hits over a season-best eight innings Thursday in a 7-2 victory. Rodriguez is 2-2 with a 1.89 ERA pitching in Minute Maid Park. He has yielded one earned run or none in five of six starts at home.
Rodriguez versus the LAD hitters:
Angel M. Berroa is 0-for-3
Andre Ethier is 0-for-2
Matt Kemp is 1-for-2
James Loney is 0-for-3
Russell Martin is 0-for-3
Jason Repko is 1-for-3
The only bat in the Dodgers lineup that has had any success against Wandy is Jeff Kent who is 3-for-5 with two doubles and a home run. Expect Rodriguez to pitch carefully to the ex-Astro.
Both teams have been more productive against left-handed starters, however, tonight's umpire and conditions should keep both offenses honest.
Fieldin Culbreth has always been pitcher-friendly, but fair. The hitters in the Bigs know he has a wide zone and go to the plate with the understanding they have to swing the bat. Culbreth gives both starters room to work tonight, but he is especially a good fit with the veteran Rodriguez.
5 UNIT Play on UNDER in Minute Maid Park
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Los Angeles Dodgers
Houston Astros OFF
OFF
8.5
-129 -110
8.5
-130 -105
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox Jul 1 2008 8:11PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 7.5 betED
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: Prez' 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
REASON FOR PICK:
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
Pitchers: Cliff Lee vs. John Danks
Umpire: Marty Foster
Conditions: 81 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing at 10 mph towards the left field corner
Cliff Lee (11-1, 2.34 ERA) allowing a run, four hits and struck out a career-high 11 in eight innings of a 4-1 victory over San Francisco on Thursday. Lee struggled against Chicago in one start last season, allowing seven runs in 5 1-3 innings of an 11-10 home loss on July 16, but it obvious three months into the season that Lee is a different pitcher than he was a year ago. The southpaw is shooting for his 11th victory of the season tonight.
John Danks (5-4, 2.62) looks for a second straight victory for the White Sox after allowing four hits in six innings of a 2-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday. The southpaw is 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA in five starts against the Indians. He allowed a run and two hits in 6.2 innings of a 2-1 loss at Cleveland on April 3.
Danks got a win and a quality start against the Dodgers on Thursday afternoon with six solid innings of shutout ball. At that time he handed the responsibility to one of the best bullpens in baseball. Danks has only given up one earned run and struck out 14 in the last three starts covering 18 innings. Danks has 11 quality starts in 16 games. He has a pretty solid K rate and strike out to walk ratio and his BABIP (.299) is on par with his peripherals. However, he has been somewhat fortunate with an 80 percent Strand rate. He is unlikely to strand runners at such a high rate for the duration of the season, but home plate umpire Marty Foster gives him a good chance to keep his Strand rate high tonight. Where the left-hander has made his largest strides in his second season is keeping the ball down in the zone. He has taken a ground ball to fly ball ration that was .76 in his rookie season to a 1.45 this year. The White Sox offense isn't nearly as productive against left-handed starters and that continues tonight.
The home plate umpire, Marty Foster is pitcher-friendly, and the weather conditions in U.S Cingular field favor the pitchers.
5 UNIT Play on UNDER in Chicago
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox OFF
OFF
7.5
-126 -120
7.5
-124 -120
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles Jul 1 2008 7:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 9.5 Sportsbook
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: Prez' 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
REASON FOR PICK:
Kansas City Royal at Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers: Luke Hochevar vs. Radhames Liz
Umpire: Larry Vanover
Conditions: Isolated storms; 80 degrees first pitch with winds blowing from left to right field at 5 mph
Luke Hochevar (5-5, 4.60 ERA) is 2-0 with a 3.51 ERA in his last four starts. The rookies allowed two runs and seven hits in a career-high eight innings of a 4-2 win over Colorado in his last start. Hochevar lost his only game against the Orioles (41-40) on May 8, giving up four runs and five hits in seven innings of the 4-1 defeat. After a disappointing outing against the Giants on June 20, a start when the right-hander couldn't escape the fifth inning and didn't record a strikeout, he bounced back strong with his best work of the season in the 4-2 win over Colorado. His ground ball rate is over-the-top good and the 24 year old is beginning to come of age. The key is for Hochevar to pitch to contact, keep his sinker down in the strike zone and get some help from a home plate umpire that offers the low strike. The Royals defense is their strength and it has taken two months to beat this information into the head of the rookie.
Larry Vanover gives the Royal rookie a chance to baffle the O’s lineup with his low strikezone. Hochevar has turned his minor league K rate of .90, which is very good. into a sinker that induces a large percentage of ground balls. Against Colorado in his last start the righty induced 12 ground ball outs - and three fly ball outs.
Radhames Liz (2-0, 5.70 ERA) allowed two runs on four hits in five innings of an 11-4 road win over the Chicago Cubs on Thursday. The O's right hander has faced some very good hitting clubs. In his last six starts he has faced the Yankees at home, at Minnesota and Toronto, Pittsburgh and his last two starts at Milwaukee and Wrigley Field.
Liz has the advantage for the first two to three times through the batting order. No Royal hitter has any first hand experience against the Baltimore starter (advantage Liz)
Larry Vanover is a solid umpire with a generous K Zone. His career strikeout to walk ratio is above 2.0 and in 2003 he had a historic pitcher friendly season where 21 of this 30 games came in UNDER the total.
The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Royals last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter; is 38-14-1 in Royals last 53 games as an underdog of +110 to +150; and is 11-3 in Hochevars last 14 starts overall.
6 UNIT Play on UNDER the 9.5 in Baltimore
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Kansas City Royals
Baltimore Orioles OFF
OFF
9.5
-121 105
9.5
-123 105
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels Jul 1 2008 10:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 7 Sportsbook
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: Prez' 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
REASON FOR PICK:
Oakland Athletics at LA Angels
Pitchers: Rich Harden vs. Ervin Santana
Umpire: Hunter Wendelstedt
Conditions: 81 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing from right to left field at 8 mph
Rich Harden (5-0, 2.15 ERA) is 2-0 while allowing one run and eight hits in 19.2 innings over his last three starts. The right-handed phenom is looking to become the first pitcher for Oakland (45-37) to open a season 6-0 since Dave Stewart accomplished the feat in 1990. The right-hander is coming off a career-high 11 strike outs while allowing only two hits and a walk in eight innings of a 5-0 victory over a hard-hitting Philadelphia lineup.
Harden is 5-3 with a 3.99 ERA in 13 games - 12 starts - against Los Angeles. He gave up three runs and struck out nine in six innings of a 7-3, 12-inning victory over the Angels on June 8.
Ervin Santana (9-3, 3.32) struggled in his last start against Washington, this after dominating the Phillies at Citizen Bank Park. Santana has owned the A's during his career. The right-hander is 8-1 with a 1.38 ERA in 12 games - 11 starts - against Oakland, including 1-0 in two outings this season while allowing two earned runs in 13 innings. He's gone 21 consecutive innings without giving up an earned run to the A's in Anaheim.
However, there is an injury concern with Santana. He allowed four runs and a season-high five walks, including one with the bases loaded, in six innings of a 5-4 loss at Washington on Wednesday. Santana struck out eight and did not get a decision. He is dealing with a cracked middle nail on his throwing hand, that Team Prez insiders blamed for his command issues in Washington.
Hunter Wendelstedt was the home plate umpire in March when the A's were facing the Red Sox in Japan. Harden was on the mound in that game and came out a 5-1 winner.
Neither pitcher needs a large strike zone to dominate lineups and both offenses are struggling to score. The Vegas number of 7 is tiny for an American League game, but is fitting for the two pitchers tonight and their statline against the opposing hitters.
The conditions favor the pitchers and history tells us this will be a low scoring affair. A quick and efficient game just like veteran umpires like.
5 UNIT Play on UNDER in LA
The Prez
Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros Jul 1 2008 8:05PM
PICK: Houston Astros
Your pick will be graded at: -130 WSEX
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: Prez' 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
REASON FOR PICK:
LA Dodgers at Houston Astros
Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw vs. Wandy Rodriguez
Umpire: Fieldin Culbreth
Conditions: 94 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 mph
Clayton Kershaw (0-2, 4.36 ERA) has yet to win a major league start, and tonight's task against the Astros will take a near perfect effort to record that first win. The 20-year-old left-hander struggled in his last outing, allowing two runs, six hits and four walks in four-plus innings Thursday in a 2-0 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Kershaw is winless in 16 professional starts dating to Aug. 20, 2007, with Double-A Jacksonville. The rookie hasn't received much run support - getting only eight runs in his seven starts -- and isn't likely to get much tonight against the Houston left-hander (Wandy Rodriguez) who is stellar when pitching at home.
Kershaw has an advantage with a generous strike zone from home plate umpire Culbreth tonight, and no Houston hitter has any first hand experience against the Dodgers rookie. (advantage Kershaw the first 2-to-3 times through the batting order).
Wandy Rodriguez (3-3, 2.58) looks to win consecutive starts for the first time this season. The left-hander matched a career high with nine strikeouts and limited Texas to one run and five hits over a season-best eight innings Thursday in a 7-2 victory. Rodriguez is 2-2 with a 1.89 ERA pitching in Minute Maid Park. He has yielded one earned run or none in five of six starts at home.
Rodriguez versus the LAD hitters:
Angel M. Berroa is 0-for-3
Andre Ethier is 0-for-2
Matt Kemp is 1-for-2
James Loney is 0-for-3
Russell Martin is 0-for-3
Jason Repko is 1-for-3
The only bat in the Dodgers lineup that has had any success against Wandy is Jeff Kent who is 3-for-5 with two doubles and a home run. Expect Rodriguez to pitch carefully to the ex-Astro.
Both teams have been more productive against left-handed starters, however, tonight's umpire and conditions should keep both offenses honest.
Fieldin Culbreth has always been pitcher-friendly, but fair. The hitters in the Bigs know he has a wide zone and go to the plate with the understanding they have to swing the bat. Culbreth gives both starters room to work tonight, but he is especially a good fit with the veteran Rodriguez.
3 UNIT Play on Houston and Rodriguez
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Los Angeles Dodgers
Houston Astros OFF
OFF
8.5
-129 -110
8.5
-130 -105
Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros Jul 1 2008 8:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 8.5 Sportsbook
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: Prez' 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
REASON FOR PICK:
LA Dodgers at Houston Astros
Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw vs. Wandy Rodriguez
Umpire: Fieldin Culbreth
Conditions: 94 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 mph
Clayton Kershaw (0-2, 4.36 ERA) has yet to win a major league start, and tonight's task against the Astros will take a near perfect effort to record that first win. The 20-year-old left-hander struggled in his last outing, allowing two runs, six hits and four walks in four-plus innings Thursday in a 2-0 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Kershaw is winless in 16 professional starts dating to Aug. 20, 2007, with Double-A Jacksonville. The rookie hasn't received much run support - getting only eight runs in his seven starts -- and isn't likely to get much tonight against the Houston left-hander (Wandy Rodriguez) who is stellar when pitching at home.
Kershaw has an advantage with a generous strike zone from home plate umpire Culbreth tonight, and no Houston hitter has any first hand experience against the Dodgers rookie. (advantage Kershaw the first 2-to-3 times through the batting order).
Wandy Rodriguez (3-3, 2.58) looks to win consecutive starts for the first time this season. The left-hander matched a career high with nine strikeouts and limited Texas to one run and five hits over a season-best eight innings Thursday in a 7-2 victory. Rodriguez is 2-2 with a 1.89 ERA pitching in Minute Maid Park. He has yielded one earned run or none in five of six starts at home.
Rodriguez versus the LAD hitters:
Angel M. Berroa is 0-for-3
Andre Ethier is 0-for-2
Matt Kemp is 1-for-2
James Loney is 0-for-3
Russell Martin is 0-for-3
Jason Repko is 1-for-3
The only bat in the Dodgers lineup that has had any success against Wandy is Jeff Kent who is 3-for-5 with two doubles and a home run. Expect Rodriguez to pitch carefully to the ex-Astro.
Both teams have been more productive against left-handed starters, however, tonight's umpire and conditions should keep both offenses honest.
Fieldin Culbreth has always been pitcher-friendly, but fair. The hitters in the Bigs know he has a wide zone and go to the plate with the understanding they have to swing the bat. Culbreth gives both starters room to work tonight, but he is especially a good fit with the veteran Rodriguez.
5 UNIT Play on UNDER in Minute Maid Park
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Los Angeles Dodgers
Houston Astros OFF
OFF
8.5
-129 -110
8.5
-130 -105
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox Jul 1 2008 8:11PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 7.5 betED
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: Prez' 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
REASON FOR PICK:
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
Pitchers: Cliff Lee vs. John Danks
Umpire: Marty Foster
Conditions: 81 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing at 10 mph towards the left field corner
Cliff Lee (11-1, 2.34 ERA) allowing a run, four hits and struck out a career-high 11 in eight innings of a 4-1 victory over San Francisco on Thursday. Lee struggled against Chicago in one start last season, allowing seven runs in 5 1-3 innings of an 11-10 home loss on July 16, but it obvious three months into the season that Lee is a different pitcher than he was a year ago. The southpaw is shooting for his 11th victory of the season tonight.
John Danks (5-4, 2.62) looks for a second straight victory for the White Sox after allowing four hits in six innings of a 2-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday. The southpaw is 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA in five starts against the Indians. He allowed a run and two hits in 6.2 innings of a 2-1 loss at Cleveland on April 3.
Danks got a win and a quality start against the Dodgers on Thursday afternoon with six solid innings of shutout ball. At that time he handed the responsibility to one of the best bullpens in baseball. Danks has only given up one earned run and struck out 14 in the last three starts covering 18 innings. Danks has 11 quality starts in 16 games. He has a pretty solid K rate and strike out to walk ratio and his BABIP (.299) is on par with his peripherals. However, he has been somewhat fortunate with an 80 percent Strand rate. He is unlikely to strand runners at such a high rate for the duration of the season, but home plate umpire Marty Foster gives him a good chance to keep his Strand rate high tonight. Where the left-hander has made his largest strides in his second season is keeping the ball down in the zone. He has taken a ground ball to fly ball ration that was .76 in his rookie season to a 1.45 this year. The White Sox offense isn't nearly as productive against left-handed starters and that continues tonight.
The home plate umpire, Marty Foster is pitcher-friendly, and the weather conditions in U.S Cingular field favor the pitchers.
5 UNIT Play on UNDER in Chicago
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox OFF
OFF
7.5
-126 -120
7.5
-124 -120
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles Jul 1 2008 7:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 9.5 Sportsbook
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: Prez' 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
REASON FOR PICK:
Kansas City Royal at Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers: Luke Hochevar vs. Radhames Liz
Umpire: Larry Vanover
Conditions: Isolated storms; 80 degrees first pitch with winds blowing from left to right field at 5 mph
Luke Hochevar (5-5, 4.60 ERA) is 2-0 with a 3.51 ERA in his last four starts. The rookies allowed two runs and seven hits in a career-high eight innings of a 4-2 win over Colorado in his last start. Hochevar lost his only game against the Orioles (41-40) on May 8, giving up four runs and five hits in seven innings of the 4-1 defeat. After a disappointing outing against the Giants on June 20, a start when the right-hander couldn't escape the fifth inning and didn't record a strikeout, he bounced back strong with his best work of the season in the 4-2 win over Colorado. His ground ball rate is over-the-top good and the 24 year old is beginning to come of age. The key is for Hochevar to pitch to contact, keep his sinker down in the strike zone and get some help from a home plate umpire that offers the low strike. The Royals defense is their strength and it has taken two months to beat this information into the head of the rookie.
Larry Vanover gives the Royal rookie a chance to baffle the O’s lineup with his low strikezone. Hochevar has turned his minor league K rate of .90, which is very good. into a sinker that induces a large percentage of ground balls. Against Colorado in his last start the righty induced 12 ground ball outs - and three fly ball outs.
Radhames Liz (2-0, 5.70 ERA) allowed two runs on four hits in five innings of an 11-4 road win over the Chicago Cubs on Thursday. The O's right hander has faced some very good hitting clubs. In his last six starts he has faced the Yankees at home, at Minnesota and Toronto, Pittsburgh and his last two starts at Milwaukee and Wrigley Field.
Liz has the advantage for the first two to three times through the batting order. No Royal hitter has any first hand experience against the Baltimore starter (advantage Liz)
Larry Vanover is a solid umpire with a generous K Zone. His career strikeout to walk ratio is above 2.0 and in 2003 he had a historic pitcher friendly season where 21 of this 30 games came in UNDER the total.
The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Royals last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter; is 38-14-1 in Royals last 53 games as an underdog of +110 to +150; and is 11-3 in Hochevars last 14 starts overall.
6 UNIT Play on UNDER the 9.5 in Baltimore
RECOMMENDED SPORTSBOOKS: BoDog Sportsbook 5Dimes
Kansas City Royals
Baltimore Orioles OFF
OFF
9.5
-121 105
9.5
-123 105
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels Jul 1 2008 10:05PM
PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 7 Sportsbook
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: Prez' 6* BIG GAME PICK PAC - 14-4 MLB RUN
REASON FOR PICK:
Oakland Athletics at LA Angels
Pitchers: Rich Harden vs. Ervin Santana
Umpire: Hunter Wendelstedt
Conditions: 81 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing from right to left field at 8 mph
Rich Harden (5-0, 2.15 ERA) is 2-0 while allowing one run and eight hits in 19.2 innings over his last three starts. The right-handed phenom is looking to become the first pitcher for Oakland (45-37) to open a season 6-0 since Dave Stewart accomplished the feat in 1990. The right-hander is coming off a career-high 11 strike outs while allowing only two hits and a walk in eight innings of a 5-0 victory over a hard-hitting Philadelphia lineup.
Harden is 5-3 with a 3.99 ERA in 13 games - 12 starts - against Los Angeles. He gave up three runs and struck out nine in six innings of a 7-3, 12-inning victory over the Angels on June 8.
Ervin Santana (9-3, 3.32) struggled in his last start against Washington, this after dominating the Phillies at Citizen Bank Park. Santana has owned the A's during his career. The right-hander is 8-1 with a 1.38 ERA in 12 games - 11 starts - against Oakland, including 1-0 in two outings this season while allowing two earned runs in 13 innings. He's gone 21 consecutive innings without giving up an earned run to the A's in Anaheim.
However, there is an injury concern with Santana. He allowed four runs and a season-high five walks, including one with the bases loaded, in six innings of a 5-4 loss at Washington on Wednesday. Santana struck out eight and did not get a decision. He is dealing with a cracked middle nail on his throwing hand, that Team Prez insiders blamed for his command issues in Washington.
Hunter Wendelstedt was the home plate umpire in March when the A's were facing the Red Sox in Japan. Harden was on the mound in that game and came out a 5-1 winner.
Neither pitcher needs a large strike zone to dominate lineups and both offenses are struggling to score. The Vegas number of 7 is tiny for an American League game, but is fitting for the two pitchers tonight and their statline against the opposing hitters.
The conditions favor the pitchers and history tells us this will be a low scoring affair. A quick and efficient game just like veteran umpires like.
5 UNIT Play on UNDER in LA
Josh Dean
<TABLE id=AutoNumber4 style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 borderColorDark=#000080 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#000080 borderColorLight=#3366cc border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width="100%">A.P. MLB ML/RL System</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
How To Bet This System
Alright!!!! Off to a great start. Congrats on your winnings thus far!2* [A]
4*
8* [C]
<TABLE id=AutoNumber3 style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 borderColorDark=#000080 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColorLight=#3366cc border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width="33%">LA Dodgers</TD><TD width="33%">RL</TD><TD width="34%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=AutoNumber4 style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 borderColorDark=#000080 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#000080 borderColorLight=#3366cc border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width="100%">A.P. MLB ML/RL System</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
How To Bet This System
Alright!!!! Off to a great start. Congrats on your winnings thus far!2* [A]
4*
8* [C]
<TABLE id=AutoNumber3 style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 borderColorDark=#000080 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColorLight=#3366cc border=1><TBODY><TR><TD width="33%">LA Dodgers</TD><TD width="33%">RL</TD><TD width="34%"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
System Record: 6-0
Total Profit: +12.0
Total Profit: +12.0
