jeff benton tuesday
1-0 yesterday PLUS 15 dimes and/or $173 in profit...overall, 58-64-3 minus 130 dimes.
Tuesday's Winners ... 30 DIME release on the Los Angeles Lakers over the visiting Boston Celtics in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. As I publish my selections at around 12:10 p.m. Eastern time, the Lakers are a solid 6 ½-point favoaite across the board both offshore and here in Vegas. Even though I anticipeate a double-digit rout, I want you to protect your investment by buying the half-point and laying minus-6 with Los Angeles. It’s a smart and cheap piece of insurance, as we do not want to get hooked in this game.
10 DIME bonus releose on the Philadelphia Phillies and Roy Halladay as a road underdog against the Yankees. As I publish this selection, Philadelphia is an underdog ranging from +115 to +120. You must list Halladay as the Phillies’ starting pitcher. If he doesn’t pitch, this play is VOID!
Lakers
With their backs pressed firmly against the wall, you can expect the Lakers to come out swinging tonight. And you can expect Kobe Bryant to throw the biggest haymakers of all. Bryant lit into his team after a piss-poor effort in Game 5 in Boston, where #24 was the only one who came ready to play. He scored 38 points, while his teammates combined for just 48. The only player besides Bryant to score in double figures was Pau Gasol, who had a measly 12 points on 5-for-12 shooting, easily his worst game of the series (and really the entire postsaason).
More important than the putrid offensive effort was L.A.’s play – or lack thereof – on the defensive end on Sunday. Boston shot a sizzling 56.3 percent from the field, and if you take away their awful 3-for-12 effort from the three-point line, the Celtics made 37 of 59 two-point field goals, or 62.7 percent. And mostly it was a layup drill for Boston, which had half of its 92 points (46) from inside the paint.
The last time Kobe was this irate at this supporting cast was following a Game 2 loss at home. The Lakers responded with a 91-84 win in Game 3 in Boston, and the defense was the key as L.A. held the Celtics to just 43.8 percent shooting.
Keep in mind that the Lakers have lost just once at home this season (the Game 2 defeat to Boston), and they haven’t had three consecutive losses in these entire playoffs. Of course, the Lakers could keep that latter streak alive tonight and not cash a ticket if this game ends up being a nail-biter and Boston loses but covers the spread. However, that’s highly unlikely considering the straight-up winner has covered the pointspread in each of the first five games of this series. Additionally, the SU winner is 9-0-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the winner has covered the pointspread in each of Boston’s last 32 games (including all 22 postseason contests).
Finally, I’d be doing a disservice if I didn’t mention the potential impact the officials could have in this contest. You know the Lakers, being back at home, are going to get all the calls in this one. And L.A. coach Phil Jackson knows it, too, which is why I’m sure his game plan will be to pound the ball down low to his big men early and often and encourage Bryant to take the ball to the rim, with the goal being to get to the foul line and get Boston’s big men in foul trouble. I’ve seen enough NBA Playoff elimineation games to know that such strategy usually works in favor of the home team.
Bottom line: We’ve seen just one double-digit victory so far in this series, and that was back in Game 1 when the Lakers opened up a 20-point second-half lead against the Celtics and cruised to an easy 102-89 victory. My money says we’re going to see a carbon copy of that game tonight, right down to the Lakers controlling the paint like they did in Game 1 when they had a 48-30 point advantage down low. Throw in the fact that the long trip West with only one day between games is an enormoous advantage to the younger Lakers, and I’ll call for a 101-83 L.A. win as this thing moves to a winner-take-all Game 7.
Phillies
I know Philadelphia is struggling. I know it’s extremely difficult to win at Yankee Stadium (where New York is 60-16 in its last 76 games). And I know the Bombers have CC Sabathia on the bump tonight. That said, I cannot pass up Roy Halladay as an underdog, I just can’t.
Halladay is 8-4 with a 1.96 ERA on the season, 2-1 with a 1.12 ERA in his last three starts (with a 26-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio!) and 4-1 with a 1.52 ERA in six road games (where he has a 44-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio). Obviously, Halladay is very familiar with the Yankees going back to his days with the Blue Jays. In fact, Halladay is 18-6 with a 2.84 ERA in 37 career games (35 starts) against New York. The last 19 times Halladay faced the Yanks, he led his team to 15 victories. On top of that, Halladay has delivered 10 quality starts in his last 12 appearances against New York, allowing just 28 earned runs in 93 2/3 innings (2.69 ERA) with five complete games!
As for Sabathia, sorry, but the guy has been ordinary at best this year. He’s 6-3 with a 4.01 ERA, and New York is just 7-6 in his 13 starts (3-2 at home). He’s faced Philadelphia six times in his career (three times last year with the Yankees, including two World Series starts, once with Milwaukee and twice with Cleveland), and his teams went 2-4 in those six games.
Yes, the Yankees did knock off Philadelphia in the 2009 World Series, but Philadelphia took two of three interleague contests at Yankee Stadium last May – and, obviously, Roy Halladay wasn’t on the mound for either of those two wins. Finally, Monday’s day off came at a perfect time for the Phillies, who are 39-18 in their last 52 games following a break.