Service Plays Tuesday 5/3/11

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Chang

Boston Celtics +5 over MIAMI HEAT, 10 dimes
The Celtics never got into a rhythm in game one. Rajon Rondo had to sit early due to foul trouble, and Boston's shooters were ice cold in the first quarter. I expect things to be different in game 2. Doc Rivers and his squad have far too much experience in tense playoff situations, and they've always been able to bounce back after a tough loss (evidenced by their 6-1 run when trailing in a playoff series.) Take the five with the road team.

Memphis Grizzlies +6.5 over OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER, 10 dimes
The Grizzlies continue to impress. Their numbers against the spread are staggering both during the regular season and in the playoffs thus far, and I look for that trend to continue tonight. Memphis's scoring prowess in the paint is the perfect counter for OKC's all star guards. If the Thunder decide to pack their defense inside tonight, which they will have to, Memphis has shown thus far that they can hit the outside shot or make excellent passes to players slashing to the hoop. The road team is also adept at pressuring the ball and forcing turnovers, something to which this young Thunder team is susceptable. 6.5 points is a lot here, so let's take 'em.

Minnesota Twins/CHICAGO WHITE SOX over 9 runs, 5 dimes
SEATTLE MARINERS (+110, list both pitchers) over Texas Rangers, 5 dimes

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

TAMPA BAY +103 over Washington

The Caps have had the edge in play, especially in game 2 but it hasn’t resulted in wins and now this fragile playoff team is even more fragile. They lose here and it’s pretty much lights out and that’s a lot of pressure to play under. It would be one thing if these Caps players responded well to pressure but they never have so why should we expect anything different here? The Caps are 0-11 on the PP thus far and once again, if the Lightning get off to a good start or score first, Washington is in trouble. Tampa is on a roll with five straight playoff wins, they’ve responded to everything that’s been thrown at them. They rallied from a 3-1 deficit in the first round and they subsequently won twice on the road to open this series. The Bolts are feeling great while the Caps are a frustrated group and the mindset of another disappointing playoff run has to be at the front of their minds. Play: Tampa Bay +103 (Risking 2 units).

NY Yankees –1½ +103 over DETROIT

The Tigers have scored 23 runs in their last eight games. Over that stretch they’ve struck out 70 times and walked 18. That’s the worst mark in the AL and second worst in the majors. For the season, Detroit’s top three hitters in the batting order are ranked 29th in BA, dead last in runs scored, 29th in OBP and 30th in walks. Now the Tigers will face C.C. Sabathia after losing their seventh straight game. They couldn’t win with Justin Verlander on the mound last night and tonight they’ll have to rely on Brad Penny to snap their funk. Penny has walked 15 and struck out 19 in 35 IP. He’s also allowed 24 ER for an ERA of 6.11 and chances are he’s not going to fool the Yanks. In fact, current Yankees are hitting .336 off Penny with 40 hits in 119 career AB’s. Eight of those 40 hits have gone yard. CC Sabathia needs no introduction. He’s 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and has whiffed 36 in 40 IP while walking just 11. Sabathia is a legit ace. Yanks look to roll over Tigers here. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +103 (Risking 2 units).


Toronto +155 over TAMPA BAY

Tag on Wade Davis is too high. His 2.73 ERA is a complete farce when you consider that he’s a fly-ball pitcher and has a low strikeout rate. In 33 frames, Davis has 15 K’s and 11 walks. His groundball/flyball ratio is 38%/45%. His ERA is low due to an unsustainable strand rate of 78% and a 0.3 HR/9 rate. As a flyball pitcher, don't be surprised if he begins to allow HR in bunches, resulting in a rapid rise in his ERA and the Blue Jays are a good HR hitting team to trigger it. The Rays aren’t hitting at home with a .222 BA and .368 Slugging %. With a 5.48 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, it's not surprising that manager John Farrell says that Reyes might be pitching for his slot in the starting rotation. Reyes has the stuff to be effective but he must throw strikes. He’s struck out 19 batters in 23 IP and at age 26 there is still lots of upside here. Reyes is a risk for sure but this one is more about playing against a seriously overvalued Wade Davis. Play: Toronto +155 (Risking 2 units).


CINCINNATI/Houston over 8½

This series could turn into a slugfest beginning with this one. J.A. Happ generated plenty of doubt with a sub-3.00 ERA in his rookie season in Philadelphia. Happ's benefited from relatively low hit rates and high strand rates each of the past two seasons, helping him outpitch his xERA. We need more proof than 300 IP that he can sustain those levels. He also has a 53% flyball rate and his BB/K ratio is awful (14/20). When you combine low command with a high flyball rate at this notorious homer-friendly venue, you’re asking for big trouble. Happ is also a southpaw and the Reds have thrived versus lefties all season. In fact, they’re hitting a combined .345 against lefties with an off-the-charts .1011 OPS. The Reds have scored an average of 8.5 runs per game this season in support of Mike Leake and they've pushed across at least seven runs in each of his four starts. The Cinci could go over this total on its own tonight. The Astros are having a good year at the plate also. They rank sixth in the majors with a team BA of .268. They’ve stolen 24 bases while only getting caught three times. The Astros have scored 122 runs, which is a run less than the Rockies and two runs less than the Marlins. They’ll face a tough Mike Leake but Leake is usually good for allowing three or four runs and both these pens are average or below. Play: Cincinnati/Houston over 8½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tim trushel

20* gom mets

 

[drf1225]

Fairway Jay

20* Reds Over 8.5 (-105)

20* Lakers Under 187.5 (-110) TOMORROW

 

[drf1225]

ER Sports

10* Braves Under 7.5 (-110)

 

[drf1225]

Both of the above are paid and confirmed

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Royal Sports
NBA Play - Under Boston/Miami 182

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JACOB RICH

NBA-

Thunder -6.5
Boston +5
Mem/Okc Under 197.5
Bos/Mia Over 181.5

MLB-

Arizona
Oakland
Seattle
Marlins
SF/Mets Under
Min/CWS Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BIGFELLA SPORTS

NBA 4**C.R.E.A.M.** Memphis +7 -120 Buying the hook

 

[thekeyman]

thanks drf,you the man bro

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Predictions GOW
Canucks under 5

 

[thekeyman]

Tim trushel

20* gom mets

CPAW
you happen to have his nba total for tonight too


not mine, haven't seen it sorry.cpaw

 

[varkeyboy]

You da man! I appreciate this.

Kemm, you got a PM. Thanks!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Duke's Sports

Boston (+5) for 1.5 Units

Boston made several atypical mistakes in Game 1 such as early foul trouble by Rondo, Garnett struggling, and Pierce losing his cool late. As a veteran team, we look for them to clean up their act tonight; after all, several things still look good for them: Ray Allen is finding his perimeter rhythm, there is much to be desired for inside board work from Jermaine O'Neil and Glen Davis who need to step up their game tonight, and Boston has plenty of veteran leadership. Technically, the Celtics are 17-8-1 ATS as a playoff dog and 10-4 in their last 14 meetings in Miami. With all the misfortune in Game 1, Boston was not far from a cover. We'll look for a smarter and more assertive Celtics team to compete tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PREDICTION MACHINE

These are considered NORMAL value plays

Texas -120
Cleveland +115

All other games are considered weak with at the listed odds.
Odds change throughout the day and so would the value of the play. If you haven't been following it's hard to explain. These two game don't necessarily have the have the highest rate of winning but have the best value given the rate of winning considering the odds at the time.

O/U "Normal" value plays
Houston/Cin Over 8.5 (-105)
Col/Ari Under 9.5 (-115)

Highest % to win straight up for the day:
Phil 64.6%
NYY 64.5%
Cin 64.2 %

Runline "Normal" value play
Clev +1.5 (-185) wins 69.5% of the time

TV Game:
Cubs vs Dodgers

LAD (-153) would be a week play winning 62.3% of the time
Over 7.5 (-105) would be a very week play winning 51.8% of the time (anything as worse odds is a no play)

LAD -1.5 (+145) is a weak play winning 44.3% of the time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HONESTHANDICAPPER

MLB
Orioles/Royals under 8.5 You might be able to find a 9 out there if you have access to multiple books
Cubs/Dodgers under 7.5
Oakland A's runline -1.5 +170

NHL
Predators/Canucks under 5

NBA
OKC Thunder -6.5

 

[slicks_one]

thanks slicks 1

Anytime... I giveth and i taketh.... lol

 

[loneranger]

Who is The Delawarian?

 

[WINNERS_ONLY]

Blasscyk WINS

710 Miami Heat OVER 181 / 3 UNITS

958 NY METS OVER 7.5 / 2 UNITS

711 Memphis OVER 196 / 5 UNITS

Hey CPAW,,, can u tell me where can i buy plays from Blasscyk WINS
Thank you my friend.
GL,,,

 

[Bigplaya]

go to his blog....blasscykwins.blogspot.org

Hey CPAW,,, can u tell me where can i buy plays from Blasscyk WINS
Thank you my friend.
GL,,,