Service Plays Tuesday 5/27/14

[pascal5757]

XpertPicks

TUESDAY

• Play Oklahoma City -3 over San Antonio (NBA)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  8:30 PM EST

Oklahoma City has won 36 of the last 43 games after having lost two of the last three games and they have won 78 of the last 110 games coming off a home win.Oklahoma City has won 20 of the last 25 home games when the total posted is between 205 and 209.5 points and they have won 56 of the last 85 games vs. Southwest Division Opponents.

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NHL HOCKEY

• Play New York Rangers -110 over Montreal (NHL)---RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL

 

[pascal5757]

XpertPicks

TUESDAY BASEBALL

• Play Kansas City -130 over Houston---Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  8:10 PM EST

Jeremy Guthrie has won 26 of the last 37 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and he has won 16 of the last 21 games when the line posted is between -100 to -150. Jeremy Guthrie has won 19 of the last 31 games when pitching on a Tuesday and he has won 23 of the last 37 home games.

• Play Colorado +110 over Philadelphia----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  8:15 PM EST

Jorge De La Rosa has won 8 consecutive games when pitching in the month of May and he has won 6 of the last 7 games when pitching on a Tuesday. Jorge De La Rosa has won 17 of the last 19 games coming off a team loss and he has won 14 of the last 18 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125.

 

[pascal5757]

BeatYourBookie

TUESDAY

NBA BASKETBALL

10* Play Oklahoma City -3 over San Antonio (Top NBA Play)

==================================


NHL HOCKEY



10* Play NY Rangers -100 over Montreal (Top NHL Play)

 

[pascal5757]

BeatYourBookie

TUESDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play New York Yankees +140 over St. Louis (MLB TOP PLAY)

New York is 78-52 coming off three or more road games
New York is 66-48 coming off two or more wins
New York is 32-22 when playing an inter-league game


10* Play Colorado +110 over Philadelphia (MLB TOP PLAY)

Philadelphia is 58-81 after having won two of the last three games
Philadelphia is 73-89 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs
Philadelphia is 96-114 when playing in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season

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5* Play Miami +115 over Washington (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Pittsburgh +110 over New York Mets (MLB BONUS PLAY)

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT
TUESDAY, MAY 27TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________

#963 TAMPA BAY @ #964 TORONTO - 7:05 PM
•Rays RH Alex Cobb (1-1, 1.40 ERA, WHIP: 0.857) - Cobb gave up only three hits over 6 2/3 scoreless innings against Oakland on Thursday in his return after missing almost six weeks with an oblique strain. The 26-year-old is on a streak of three straight scoreless outings and has lost only two decisions in his last 21 starts overall. Adam Lind is 1-for-5 with a homer against Cobb, who is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA in three career turns versus Toronto.

--KEY STAT: COBB is 22-7 UNDER (+13.9 Units) versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COBB 3.9, OPPONENT 2.6.

•Blue Jays LH Mark Buehrle (8-1, 2.16 ERA, WHIP: 1.215) - Buehrle has been outstanding while allowing two earned runs or fewer in nine of 10 starts, including 8 2/3 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts to beat the Rays on April 2. The 15-year veteran has won four straight decisions and is in the top 10 of the league in ERA. Longoria is 9-for-28 with a homer against Buehrle, who is 9-5 with a 4.21 ERA in 23 appearances (18 starts) versus Tampa Bay.

--KEY STAT: BUEHRLE is 18-7 (+12.8 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUEHRLE 4.6, OPPONENT 3.3.

--BUEHRLE is 18-6 UNDER (+10.8 Units) versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUEHRLE 4.3, OPPONENT 3.2.

#965 CLEVELAND @ #966 CHI WHITE SOX - 8:10 PM
•Indians RH Justin Masterson (3-1, 5.32 ERA, WHIP: 1.524) - Back-to-back extra-inning games forced Masterson to pitch on three days' rest last time out and he managed to get through 5 2/3 innings, permitting five runs on eight hits at Baltimore while not factoring in the decision. It was the third straight shaky start for Masterson, who has been tagged for 17 runs over his last 15 1/3 innings. He has also struggled away from home with an 0-2 record and 6.00 ERA in five starts.

--KEY STAT: MASTERSON is 21-8 (+15.6 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MASTERSON 4.0, OPPONENT 3.4.

--MASTERSON is 10-3 (+11.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MASTERSON 3.8, OPPONENT 3.0.

--MASTERSON is 24-9 OVER (+14.8 Units) in road games after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was MASTERSON 4.4, OPPONENT 5.2.

•White Sox LH Chris Sale (4-0, 1.89 ERA, WHIP: 0.720) - Sale has set the bar impossibly high after giving up two hits and striking out 20 over 13 innings in his last two outings, although one of them resulted in a no-decision. The 25-year-old Florida native had his shortest start of the season against Cleveland on April 11, picking up the win after allowing three runs and five hits in six innings. He is 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA in 19 appearances (eight starts) against the Indians.

--KEY STAT: SALE is 8-18 against the run line (-14.0 Units) versus an American League team with they batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SALE 3.1, OPPONENT 3.8.

#967 HOUSTON @ #968 KANSAS CITY - 8:10 PM
•Astros RH Collin McHugh (2-3, 3.32 ERA, WHIP: 1.026) - McHugh looks to snap a personal skid that reached three games when he was tagged with the loss at Los Angeles on Wednesday despite allowing only two runs and four hits over seven innings. The 26-year-old began his first season with Houston by yielding a total of one run in back-to-back victories but has seen his ERA rise from 0.59 to 3.32 over his last four outings. McHugh will be facing Kansas City for the first time in his career.

•Royals RH Jeremy Guthrie (2-3, 4.39 ERA, WHIP: 1.188) - Like his counterpart, Guthrie also is winless since capturing each of his first two starts, going 0-3 over his last eight outings. The 35-year-old settled for a no-decision against the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday after allowing just one run and three hits in seven innings. Guthrie is 2-1 with a 5.18 ERA in five career starts versus Houston, including a no-decision April 16 in which he yielded four runs in six frames.

--KEY STAT: GUTHRIE is 23-10 UNDER (+11.5 Units) versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 3.7, OPPONENT 4.1.

--GUTHRIE is 17-4 (+13.9 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 5.7, OPPONENT 3.3.

--GUTHRIE is 13-31 against the run line (-23.1 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 4.2, OPPONENT 4.8.

--GUTHRIE is 15-6 against the run line (+11.8 Units) at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 5.7, OPPONENT 3.3.

#969 TEXAS @ #970 MINNESOTA - 8:10 PM
•Rangers RH Yu Darvish (4-2, 2.35 ERA, WHIP: 1.109) - Darvish allowed two runs and six hits while striking out six in seven innings of a 9-2 victory at Detroit on Thursday. The 27-year-old Japan native struck out 38 in 30 innings over his last four starts. Darvish, who has defeated every American League team except Minnesota and Cleveland, fanned 11 and took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in his last start against the Twins on Aug. 30, 2013 before allowing three runs in a 3-2 loss, and is 0-1, 2.92 in two outings against Minnesota.

--KEY STAT: DARVISH is 13-3 UNDER (+9.9 Units) versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DARVISH 4.0, OPPONENT 3.2.

•Twins RH Phil Hughes (5-1, 3.15 ERA, WHIP: 1.196) - Hughes struck out seven and scattered seven hits in seven innings of a 2-0 victory at San Diego on Wednesday. "Right now he is in that mode where he just trusts his stuff," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters about the 27-year-old Mission Viejo, Calif., native. "He's relaxed a little bit now and he just feels it coming out of his hand." Hughes is 2-2 with a 1.71 ERA in six games (five starts) against Texas and has struggled with Rios (11-for-24, homer, three doubles, five RBIs).

--KEY STAT: HUGHES is 9-1 (+10.3 Units) against the money line after walking <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUGHES 4.0, OPPONENT 2.9.

--HUGHES is 26-6 (+19.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HUGHES 6.8, OPPONENT 4.2.

#971 DETROIT @ #972 OAKLAND - 10:05 PM
•Tigers RH Max Scherzer (6-1, 2.59 ERA, WHIP: 1.136) - Scherzer left his last turn with a chance to pick up the victory despite giving up season highs in runs (seven) and hits (12) over seven frames, but missed an opportunity to win his seventh consecutive start when closer Joe Nathan blew a save in Wednesday’s 11-10, 13-inning loss to the Cleveland Indians. It was a rare rough outing for the 2013 American League Cy Young Award winner, who had allowed a total of six runs over 39 innings during his winning streak. Scherzer is 2-1 with a 4.20 ERA in six all-time turns against Oakland.

--KEY STAT: SCHERZER is 24-5 (+14.4 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SCHERZER 5.4, OPPONENT 3.1.

•Athletics RH Sonny Gray (5-1, 1.99 ERA, WHIP: 1.088) - Although he extended his unbeaten streak to five starts and held the Tampa Bay Rays to one run and five hits over eight frames, Gray did not factor into the decision in Thursday’s 5-2 loss. The No. 18 overall selection of the 2011 draft has yet to allow more than three runs in any of his 10 outings and limited the opposition to two runs or fewer seven times. Gray, who is holding hitters to a .206 average, will face Detroit for the first time in his career.

#973 LA ANGELS @ #974 SEATTLE - 10:10 PM
•Angels RH Jered Weaver (5-3, 2.85 ERA, WHIP: 0.995) - Weaver has rounded into form after a rocky start to the season, winning five of his last six decisions while allowing fewer than three runs in each of his last seven outings. The 31-year-old bounced back from a hard-luck loss on Wednesday, limiting Houston to two hits in his first complete game since 2012. Weaver is 13-9 lifetime against Seattle but is looking to avenge a 10-3 loss in his season debut on March 31.

--KEY STAT: WEAVER is 65-37 UNDER (+22.8 Units) versus an American League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 4.0, OPPONENT 3.2.

--WEAVER is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WEAVER 3.1, OPPONENT 3.6.

•Mariners LH Roenis Elias (3-3, 3.68 ERA, WHIP: 1.329) - Elias is winless in his last three starts, going 0-1 with a pair of no-decisions - including a 5 1/3-inning effort against Houston on Thursday in which he yielded one run and three hits. The 25-year-old Cuban has yet to win at home in his first season in the majors, posting a 3.86 ERA in four outings while losing his only decision. That loss came versus the Angels on April 9, when Elias allowed two runs and four hits in five frames.
________________________________________________

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS INTERLEAGUE PITCHING REPORT
TUESDAY, MAY 27TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________________

#975 BOSTON @ #976 ATLANTA - 7:10 PM
•Red Sox LH Jon Lester (4-6, 3.36 ERA, WHIP: 1.179) - Lester is trying to bounce back from his worst start of the season - a 6 1/3-inning stint against Toronto in which he was charged with seven runs on 10 hits. The 30-year-old surrendered two home runs in that game, matching his total from the previous eight turns. Lester has made two career starts against Atlanta and is 1-1 with a total of four runs allowed in 13 innings.

--KEY STAT: LESTER is 14-3 (+11.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 4.6, OPPONENT 2.8.

--LESTER is 12-3 (+9.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 4.2, OPPONENT 2.9.

•Braves RH Aaron Harang (4-4, 3.32 ERA, WHIP: 1.223) - Harang went 3-1 with a 0.85 ERA in his first five starts but has seen those numbers slip to 1-3 with a 6.11 ERA in the last five. The veteran was charged with four runs and nine hits in 5 1/3 innings without factoring in the decision against Milwaukee on Thursday. Harang is 2-2 with a 5.64 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox and struggles with Ortiz, who is 5-for-9 with a home run and three doubles against the 36-year-old.

--KEY STAT: HARANG is 14-22 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARANG 3.9, OPPONENT 4.6.

--HARANG is 11-2 OVER (+9.0 Units) as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARANG 4.4, OPPONENT 5.6.

#977 BALTIMORE @ #978 MILWAUKEE - 8:10 PM
•Orioles LH Wei-Yin Chen (5-2, 4.08 ERA, WHIP: 1.415) - Chen had allowed three runs or fewer in six straight starts before getting knocked around for five runs and eight hits in 6 2/3 innings against Cleveland on Thursday. The Taiwan native notched only one strikeout in each of his last two turns. Chen is making his first start against Milwaukee and is 3-4 with a 4.39 ERA in seven career interleague starts.

--KEY STAT: CHEN is 12-4 (+8.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was CHEN 4.9, OPPONENT 3.3.

--CHEN is 25-9 (+16.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was CHEN 4.1, OPPONENT 3.3.

•Brewers RH Matt Garza (2-4, 4.92 ERA, WHIP: 1.343) - Garza is winless in his last three starts and was charged with four runs on five hits and three walks in 6 1/3 innings at Atlanta on Thursday. The 30-year-old notched a season-low one strikeout in that turn and had a three-start stretch without allowing a home run come to an end. Garza is 9-1 with a 3.03 ERA in 12 career starts against Baltimore, though he has not faced the Orioles since Sept. 3, 2010.

--KEY STAT: GARZA is 17-7 OVER (+10.0 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GARZA 5.5, OPPONENT 4.4.

--GARZA is 23-8 OVER (+15.0 Units) in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GARZA 5.0, OPPONENT 5.1.

#979 NY YANKEES @ #980 ST LOUIS - 8:15 PM
•Yankees RH David Phelps (1-1, 3.18 ERA, WHIP: 1.382) - Phelps is making his fifth start since joining the rotation and lasted a season-long seven innings in his last outing. He struck out eight while losing to the Chicago White Sox despite giving up only two runs and six hits. Phelps has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his previous four starts.

•Cardinals RH Lance Lynn (5-2, 3.60 ERA, WHIP: 1.317) - Lynn has just one victory over his last six starts after opening the campaign with four straight wins. He took a no-decision against Arizona in his last turn when he gave up two runs and seven hits in six innings. Lynn has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight starts.

--KEY STAT: LYNN is 46-22 (+18.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LYNN 5.2, OPPONENT 3.3.

--LYNN is 30-12 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LYNN 5.9, OPPONENT 3.5.

--LYNN is 12-5 against the run line (+9.8 Units) in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LYNN 4.8, OPPONENT 2.6.
____________________________________________________

 

[goldencontender]

GC: MLB Play

​

Tuesday card has 5* NBA Triple system Playoff payoff side. In MLB We cashed another top play on Memorial day. Tonight we have a 5* MLB Game of the Month from a system that wins by nearly 4 runs per game and a solid 90% totals system. MLB Play below


On Tuesday the MLB Play is on the LA. Dodgers. Game 960 at 10:10 eastern. The Dodgers have Z. Greinke going tonight and when Greinke starts and is a home favorite of -140 or higher his teams are 32-2 if he did not blow a 5 or more run lead in his last start. Greinke is 4-1 vs the Reds and 8-1 in his last 9 home starts in May. The Reds are 0-7 on the road off a 1 run road loss where they scored 4 or less runs and have lost 6 of the last 7 here in the series vs the Dodgers. This one of those games where they are hurt with the absence of Joey Votto as he hits .381 with 3 homers in 21 at bats vs Greinke. The Reds counter with A.Simon who has some solid numbers, but not as good as Greinke. The lines a tad high to unit rate but the Dodgers appear to be the right side here tonight. On Tuesday there are 3 Big Plays up led by the MLB Game of the Month from a huge system that wins by almost 4 runs per game. There is also a 90% MLB Totals system and a 5* Triple system NBA Play. Jump on and cash out. For the Bonus Play take the LA. Dodgers. GC

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ART ARONSON

1* Bonus Play Montreal Canadiens.

I recommended a play on the Rangers at MSG in Game 4 but I feel the outcome will be the opposite as the series shifts to Canada. The Habs have their backs against the wall here as a loss sends them to the golf course. Despite losing in OT in Game 4, Montreal has to still be liking its chances because of the stellar play of young goalie Dustin Tokarski. Tokarski was thrown into the roll as starting netminder when All-Star Carey Price got steamrolled in Game 1. Tokarski has a 2.63 GAA and .917 save percentage through three games and I think has a legitimate shot at gutting out a victory tonight. New York has hardly been a World beater and the home crowd is going to be as supportive as always at the Bell Center. Considering all of the above factors and what’s at stake, I think the home side offers pretty good value here, how about you?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Clement

8 Units Angels -126

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

KELSO

NBA

25* San Antonio Spurs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hot Chick PICKS / Britney DeLuca

Today’s Plays…

In MLB take the Dodgers and Reds to stay UNDER 6.5!
In MLB take Oakland and Detroit to stay UNDER 6.5!
In MLB take San Francisco and the Cubbies to stay UNDER 6.5!

In NBA take SAN ANTONIO +2.5 to avoid the thunderstorm!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TOM BARTON

3* Rays vs Blue Jays – Under 4.5 (1st 5innings)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeffrey James (YouWinNow)

MLB Play of the Day #966 Chicago White Sox with Sale -165

Big edge here on the mound for the Pale Hose as they go with Sale who is 4-0 with an ERA of 1.89. In his last 3 starts he has given up only 4 earned runs in 18 innings of work and he has already beaten the Indians once this year. Cleveland is in a bad spot since they are 9-17 on the road and only 6-11 against left handers. The Sox are 3-0 this season as favorites of between 150 and 175. Take the Sox to get this win here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog Sports FREE PICK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Time: Tuesday 05/27 7:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Toronto -113 (moneyline) at TopBet

The king of pitchers as a home favorite is the Blue Jays' starter for this one in Mark Buehrle. Buehrle has amassed the best mark in this role over the last 10 years where he is 94-44 in 138 starts as home chalk, and the return trumps all other pitchers at 15.3%. It's simply too tough to go against that kind of success. Tampa Bay has been competitive in past seasons due to quality starting pitching, but injuries and under-performing pitchers have taken their toll this season. Tampa Bay is last in MLB with just 17 quality starts in 52 games on the season, and when they fail to get one they are 7-28. Needless to say they will likely need one in this contest vs. the king of the hill as a home chalk, and even if they get one it still may not be enough. Play on Toronto.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tampasports

washington-m.line -best bet

ny mets-m.line

milwaukee-m.line

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

J.R Stevens/SMOOTH44

MLB Top Picks

(951) Miami +115
(957) San Diego +115
(974) Seattle +120
(*Listed Pitchers)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Umpire Streakers

[1977] MIL/BAL '1st 5' O4.5 (+100)
[1962] SF/CHC '1st 5' U3 (+100)
[956] NYM/PIT U8 (-110)

2* [976] ATL/BOS U7 (+100)
2* [969] MIN/TEX O7 (-105)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee won on Monday in the NBA Playoffs with the Heat -6.5/Pacers.

"Mr Chalk" lost on Monday in MLB in the National League with the Nationals -$125/Marlins.

In the NHL Playoffs on Tuesday E&B like the Canadians $110/Rangers.

For Tuesday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the White Sox -$165/Indians.

Ben lee is 1-1 -$13 for week thirty one 129-154-5 -$2750.

"Mr Chalk" is 22-23 -$622 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews

LAS VEGAS -- Can we start trusting Jered Weaver again? He started the season 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA, but he has come up big for the Angels of late, going 5-1 with a 1.70 ERA over his past seven turns. He's helped give the Angels some stability, the bats have helped him get leads, and his rating has increased each time out.

Tonight Weaver takes the mound at Seattle where he's a -130 favorite over rookie left-hander Roenis Elias (3-3, 3.68). While Weaver comes off his best outing of the season, a complete-game 2-1 win over the Astros, the Mariners have been a thorn in his and the Angels' sides. With their 5-1 loss Monday night, the Angels are now 1-5 this season against Seattle and have scored only 14 runs with a .168 average in those six match-ups.

Over Weaver's last six starts against Seattle, he's gone 1-5 with a 4.05 ERA. His last outing against them was the Angels' season opener on March 31 where Weaver gave up four runs in 6.1 innings in a 10-3 loss. However, his last outing at Safeco Field turned out very well, a 7-1 win on Aug. 25 in which he allowed one run and three hits over eight innings.

So which Weaver shows up today? And will the bats finally show up against Seattle? We're talking about an Angels squad that is fifth in runs scored (4.8 per game) and fourth in slugging percentage (.419).

The best play might be to side with UNDER 7 runs. There are a several trends pointing to this game being low-scoring for both teams. In Elias' 10 starts this season, the Mariners have stayed UNDER in seven of them. The Angels have stayed UNDER in seven of their past nine road games and these two teams have stayed UNDER in six of their last eight meetings at Safeco Field.

Tuesday selections:

Angels/Mariners UNDER 7 (EV)

Blue Jays (Buehrle) -113 vs. Rays

Pirates (Volquez) +104 at Mets

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore +110 over MILWAUKEE

Matt Garza continues to falter. Signed to a big contract to be the Brewers #1 starter, Garza has been the Brewers worst starter and that’s not likely to change. The warning signs just keep coming. Garza’s swinging strike rate has decreased in each of his last six starts. Over that same stretch his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 31%/24%/39% screams to stay away. In his last start against Atlanta, Garza walked three batters and struck out one. Over his last five starts his BB/K split is an alarming 14/21. Garza is a pitcher in peril. He started last season late as he recovered from 2012 elbow injury. His K rate didn't come all the way back and it’s now getting worse. With his 2011 peak plainly in rear-view mirror, the question is whether that elbow injury left him at this lower level permanently. Judging by his poor and declining skills, we say he’s not close to regaining his old form. Garza is so overpriced here.

Wei-Yin Chen is a mid-rotation stalwart who gives the Orioles innings with an acceptable ERA and a handful of wins. Chen is 5-2 with an ERA of 4.08 but his xERA of 3.87 is a better barometer of his skills. In four of his past five starts, Chen has allowed two earned runs or less. In 53 innings he’s only been taken yard four times. His ERA is slightly inflated due to unlucky hit and strand rates but again, his xERA says he’s very reliable. Chen has also done a better job of keeping the ball on the ground and is coming off three starts with an elite groundball rate of 53%. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers are hitting just .239 against lefties and offer up no value whatsoever as the chalk in this one.


Houston +121 over KANSAS CITY

The Astros have won three straight while outscoring the opposition 22-7 over that span. They took the opener of this series last night by a score of 9-2 while knocking out Yordano Ventura in the third inning. The Astros are displaying power, they have speed and they have an enthusiasm about them that is unmatched. Now they get to face Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie is another one of those pitchers that must rely heavily on good fortune because he doesn’t walk many and strikes out few. He has a lousy 29 K’s in 66 innings and that low K rate is supported by his awful 5% swinging strike rate. One can safely predict that the speedy Astros will be aggressive on the base-paths and wreak havoc on Guthrie’s inability to keep runners off. Guthrie’s general lack of dominance can be seen in his 39%/16% dominant start/disaster split over his average career. Guthrie is pure fade material when he’s favored and pitching for the Royals does not give him any extra appeal.

The Royals are dead last in so many key offensive categories. Their 20 jacks are last in the majors, as is their HR total at home, which is now at nine. K.C is also dead last in extra base hits, meaning they are a singles hitting team that usually has to string together three hits in an inning to score. The Royals have two wins over their past seven games and will now face a good looking rookie that they’ve never seen before. Collin McHugh has come out of nowhere to post a nifty 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP after 38 IP. They are marks that have been accompanied by full skills support that include 9.7 K’s/9, good control and a rising groundball rate. His high strikeout rate is backed by an elite 13% swinging strike % and he’s been just as effective against both RHB and LHB. His key has been two dominant pitches: slider (16% swinging strike rate) and curveball (18% swinging strike rate). In addition, his four-seam fastball (10% swinging strike rate) and changeup (8% swinging strike rate) are more than just show pitches. In three road starts, McHugh is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA, a .194 BAA and a BB/K split of 4/23 in 20 innings. Win or lose, this is a must play because there is simply too much value on the Astros to skip it.


ARIZONA/San Diego Over 9

Arizona has won three in a row at home while scoring 30 runs over that span. It’s unlikely that Eric Stults is going to slow them down. Stults is the epitome of a lefty soft-tosser. His four-pitch mix makes up for his 87-mph fastball but it's his pinpoint control that makes him (barely) playable from time to time. Stults has issued just eight walks in 51 frames but he’s only struck out 25 batters. He puts the ball in play and so he must rely heavily on good fortune and great defense for any chance of success. That might work at Petco but on the road Stults’ risk goes way up. For starters, Chase Field is the second most hitter-friendly park in the NL (+10% runs scored). In his career at Chase Field, he is 2-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 32.1 IP. It’s not just Chase Field either, as Stults has always been hit hard on the road, where in his career he is just 12-20 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In five road starts this season, Stults is 0-4 with a 5.18 ERA, a .313 BAA and he’s also allowed five jacks in 24 innings. The D-Backs figure to get their fair share here.

Wade Miley brings a mixed bag to the table. The PROS are a confirmed rise in his strikeouts and he’s displayed a groundball mastery all of last season and much of this season too. The CONS are that his exquisite 2012 control looks flukish; ditto the command. Miley has walked 25 batters in 68.2 innings. He’s been taken yard 10 times overall but at home he’s been taken yard seven times in five starts. At Chase Field in those five home starts, Miley is 1-4 with a 7.14 ERA with a BAA of .286. Furthermore, current Padres have hit .299 against Miley with a OPS of .790 in 134 combined AB’s. Two very hittable pitchers hook up at this extreme hitter’s park and we should see some crooked numbers against both.

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