Service Plays Tuesday 5/20/08

[magillagorilla]

I stop in at the RX on occassion, primarily to see what the touts are heavily favoring so I can either go against or jump off a play that there is a heavy consensus on. I decided to back date the tout consensus (started this about 2 weeks ago a little each day) and found that fading the touts heavy consensus can be very profittable. NO explanation as to why it works out but these numbers do not lie:

Fading strong consensus of touts in MLB since day 1 has produced approximately 90 winners and 77 losers (54%). 54% is good but not great. However, peel the onion a little further:

Of the 167 games all but 13 were DOGS. The 13 favs never had a juice over -120 and average less than -110.

The 90W and 77L equate to nearly $2600 profit if betting $100 per game

If you adjust the record based on a standard of -110 juice vs the profit you will see that the record is at 60% equivalent. I will also note that I rounded DOWN on every play so that this is a LOW estimate. Realistically you could have profitted at least 10cents extra on each of the 90 winners which would have netted more like $3500 or 62% equivalent.

Let me qualify this by saying my definition of a heavy consensus is based on
1. At least 2:1 touts on one side
2. Must be at least a 5 tout difference (8-4 is double but not more than 5 so does not qualify, but 8-3 does)
3. No more than 5 touts on the other side even if rule 1 and 2 apply. So 13-6 would not qualify under the 3rd criteria although it does pass the first two.

These were guidelines I attempted to follow. I ignored who the touts were and what their track record was, hell I don't know who more than a few are anyway.
I decided to do this for a couple reasons:

1. Noticed at another site that people were fading a heavy wagerline consensus with success....so why not the touts
2. Seemed everytime there was a lot of "touting" for a play it ended up losing.
3. My own curiousity and thought it might be a tool to help me make a final decision on a play. I can say it has saved me money by being armed with this information.

One last thing, there were a few days where the information was not available (the site I pulled the info did not do the tally and I did not take the time to do one myself), but I can tell you it is VERY accurate and a solid snapshot and a large enough sample to make some conclusions.

Sorry to take up so much space but I thought it was info worth sharing.

Best of luck with you plays RX

interesting write up arizona.where do you get a consensus of touts though,just add them up? it seems to hold up alot,though I saw alot of touts on the red sox last night .

I have seen a few people add up tout picks on here.I will keep my eye out

cheers

 

[Randy55]

vegas-runner | NBA Sides Triple-Dime Bet
702 BOS -4.0 (-120) Bookmaker vs 701 DET
Analysis: *** 3* NBA BEST BET OF THE DAY *** (Buy the 1/2)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Seabass

50* Pistons
20*tor
20*fla
20*seat

 

[Randy55]

vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
906 ATL (-102) SportBet vs 905 NYM
Analysis: ** 2* ML WAGER **

 

[jordan17]

More juice, play at you own risk! 23-4 last 27 I believe.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Winners Inc.</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Tuesday, May 20, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Last year in BASEBALL we were 77-31 for PLUS 50.2 Units on the season and that my friends is playing just ONE UNIT PER GAME! So far this year we are 33-14 for PLUS 15.7 UNITS! Today we are featuring TOP RATED BASEBALL WINNER that you can get for just $25 and you will be charged only after you win! We are currently on a REMARKABLE 69-31 run with all of our selections! We are 21-4 since April 30th!
</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>5/20/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>TOP RATED BASEBALL WINNER
LA DODGERS w/Billingsley -165 10:10 EST
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Thx eagle8 :toast:

 

[Randy55]

vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
906 ATL (-102) SportBet vs 905 NYM
Analysis: *** 3* ML WAGER *** (UPGRADED PLAY)

 

[Sportsaholic]

Aj Apollo

MLB 3* Florida Marlins (Hendrickson vs Owings)

MLB 3* Houston Astros (Sampson vs Dempster)

NBA 3* Boston Celtics

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

(C&P) CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS 5/20 TUESDAY


DETROIT PISTONS +5 -110 (comp)

 

[Randy55]

vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Single-Dime Bet
901 MIL (-114) Bodog vs 902 PIT
Analysis: * 1* ML WAGER *

 

[jordan17]

Maybe Betting The Chalks Is The Way To Go....i Don't Know

:thumbsup2:

ps
now we need!
wiseguy, wizard, hitman(on fire), hammer, & kidd...:smoker2:

 

[4SHO]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Wizard of Odds</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Tuesday, May 20, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Are you looking for a "Sure Thing" today in Baseball? Well today is your LUCKY Day as the Wizard of Odds has just what you are looking for and it is the TOP RATED BASEBALL PLAY OF THE DAY and you can get it right now for just $25! You are GUARANTEED to win this game or you will not be charged! We are 18-6 in Baseball this year!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>5/20/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>TOP RATED BASEBALL PLAY OF THE DAY
Chicago White Sox w/Contreas +115 8:10 EST


Here's another one. (free credit)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Fairway Jay

MLB 3* Cardinals (Pineiro)

NBA 3* Celtics/Pistons over 174

 

[jordan17]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Wizard of Odds</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Tuesday, May 20, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Are you looking for a "Sure Thing" today in Baseball? Well today is your LUCKY Day as the Wizard of Odds has just what you are looking for and it is the TOP RATED BASEBALL PLAY OF THE DAY and you can get it right now for just $25! You are GUARANTEED to win this game or you will not be charged! We are 18-6 in Baseball this year!
</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>5/20/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>TOP RATED BASEBALL PLAY OF THE DAY
Chicago White Sox w/Contreas +115 8:10 EST


Here's another one. (free credit)

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

thx BRUCE!...:toast:

ps
4 more...d1g1t

 

[Randy55]

vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Single-Dime Bet
903 ARI (-115) SportBet vs 904 FLA
Analysis: * 1* ML WAGER *

Tue, 05/20/08 - 8:05 PMvegas-runner | MLB Money Line Single-Dime Bet
909 CHC (-123) SportBet vs 910 HOU
Analysis: * 1* ML WAGER *

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Our very own: GL BB!:toast:

Big Bookie Tuesday
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Boston -4.5

 

[wattt]

randy u got a package or is it jus one of those day things i dun wana jus hop on for a day..like yesterday wasnt a good day

 

[missy]

45 Min To Game Time. Wise Guy, Will Kidd, Comp. Crusher, Hitman, Hammer. Thanks.

 

[masterblaster40]

i'm going to get the crusher

 

[jordan17]

45 Min To Game Time. Wise Guy, Will Kidd, Comp. Crusher, Hitman, Hammer. Thanks.

Crusher no play posted...since I last checked...%^_

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

executive
250 pistons
250 jays
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