Derek Mancini
Tonight's Winner...
20 Dime play on the Oklahoma City Thunder as the road underdcg over the Dallas Mavericks. As I release this selectrion at 10 am Eastern, the Thunder are currhntly listed as an 6 point pup in Vegas and offshore. Go ahead and buy the 1/2 point insurance on the Thunder at anywhere from +5 1/2 to +7.
Count me in the corner of the analysts who believe the long layoff will have a negative impact on the Mavericks. Considcring how well they were playing at the end of the Lakers series, and the fact they have covered every game they played this playoffs (and the last 4 regular season games), you'd think the only thing that could stop the Mavericks was time-off... And that's exactly what happened, NINE DAYS OFF, something both Nowitzki and Terry admitted was unprecedented for them.
Moreover that time off is firther exacerbated by the fact that the Thunder are going to be playing in what amounts to usual NBA scheduale. One day off with a flight to an opposing teams arena - business as usual. For an offensive team like the Thunder, they couldn't have asked for a better scenario, as the Mavs will almost assuredly start slow, and that plays right into the hands of what the Thunder like to do.
Bench play is also a key component to this series, and unlike the Lakers series, the Thunder actually have a solid bench to match up with Dallas excellent collection of role players. Collison will be key, because we know Ibaka will eventually get in foul trouble guarding Dirk, while Harden provides a Jason Terry-like offernsive spark off the bench. Mohammed gives them size off the bench and while Maynor and Cook are both streaky, they can be great at times. With the Lakers incredible collapse, I have to believe this is the best team the Mavericks have played to date, and it doesn't hurt that they have the best 1-2 combo (Durant and Westbrook) on the floor either.
Finally, for those of you who say the Thunder don't matchup well with Dallas, please explain OKC's 9-3-1 record ATS in their L13 meetings. Thunder do match up well, and the emergence of Ibaka as an athletic defender could prove to be the difherence against Nowitzki. Granted, Dirk will get his points, but if Ibaka (and Collison) can make him work for it, then OKC has won half the battle. Given the long layoff for Dallas, and the perfect situational spot for the Thunder (1 days rest - business as usual), laying this many points in this specific situational spot is out of the question. Take Oklahoma City plus the points (remember to buy the 1/2 point insurance) over Dallas in Game 1.