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MLB Over/Under Top Play!
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Steve Merril went a perfect 5-0 yesterday and tonight he has a powerful NBA Super Situation backed by an incredible 9-1 ATS (90%) pattern that has cashed tickets all year long winning by an average of 15 points per game - Grab this blowout winner right now - Guaranteed to WIN AGAIN!
SPORTS WAGERS
San Francisco +1.22 over HOUSTON
To start the season the winner of the first game has a psychological edge in the second game and you can double that for a team that is predicted to be rotten like the Astros. That first win is sometimes the most difficult one. The big problem for the Giants over the past few years has been offense or a lack thereof. However, there’s a good chance they’ll show quite a bit more pop this season with the addition of Aubrey Huff, a guy who can put up solid numbers when he knows he’ll be penciled in every day. Aaron Rowand, Jose Uribe, Mark DeRosa and Bengie Molina are all capable of producing more and Pablo Sandoval is the real deal at third. The Giants pounded out 10 hits yesterday and that has to boost the confidence of the offense. The Astros on the other hand started the season with Lance Berkman on the rack, Jose Feliz, a 35-year old 3rd baseman who’s offensive numbers keep declining and a very average second baseman by the name of Kazuo Matsui. Wandy has been very reliable over the past couple of years but he had a brutal spring and his confidence could be shot. He never pitched more than four innings this spring and he closed by allowing 17 earned runs over 10.1 innings in his last three games. Overall in the spring, Rodriguez allowed 34 hits in 19 innings and his ERA was an alarming 12.10. It’s anyone’s guess as to how Barry Zito will pitch. It’s simply impossible to predict, as he could get rocked on any given day or he can go a solid six. Anyway, this choice is more about playing on the Giants against the Astros plus a tag as oppose to playing pitcher vs pitcher, although Rodriguez was brutally awful in the spring. Play: San Francisco +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
NY Rangers +1.04 over BUFFALO
Is there a more determined team to get into the playoff right now then the Rangers? I don’t think there is. This team has won three straight and they’ve been very impressive in doing so, outscoring its opponents 13-4. You can’t help but like the fact that the Rangers are scoring goals and they get great goaltending from and that combo is a deadly one. Meanwhile, the Sabres are coming off back-to-back losses to the Leafs and Canadiens in which they scored just two goals combined. They beat the Bruins recently but were badly outplayed in that one and as a result they should have three losses in its last four. It would appear as though the Sabres are content to just end the season already and start the playoffs. They’re pretty much a lock to win their division, as they sit five points ahead of the Sens with just three games left for Ottawa. So, what we’re getting here is a very determined club, plus a small tag, that’s playing great against a team that is in relax mode. Play: N.Y. Rangers +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Carolina +1.03 over TAMPA BAY
The only interesting thing left for the Lightning is where they’ll draft and whether or not Steven Stamkos scores 50. With a building that will be three-quarters empty, nothing to play for and laying juice, the Lightning are unappealing at best. Also, Antero Nittymaki is a guy that has to be tremendously focused to have a shot at a good game and that’s unlikely. Nittymaki can be brutally awful and that should be a huge concern for anyone considering laying the small number. Meanwhile, the Canes have not lost in regulation on the road in seven straight games. Cam Ward is one of the best and he’s playing like it. I love this guy, as he’s one of the rare, stand-up goaltenders in the league when most of them are flopping around like a fish out of water. Tampa has scored five goals in its last four games and while the Canes are playing for nothing also, they’ve been playing solid hockey for the better part of two months and they’re not showing any signs of letting up. Play: Carolina +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA +1.23 over Ottawa
Speaking of teams that are not going anywhere in terms of the standings and one need not look further than the Sens. This team is firmly situated in fifth place in the East, six points behind the Penguins and five points ahead of the Habs. In other words, they’re going to finish in fifth with no chance of finishing higher or lower. Now they’ll make a two-game trip to Florida just before the playoffs begin and one must wonder what the Sens motivation will be. They’re coming off a 4-1 loss to the Islanders after a six game winning streak, which ultimately solidified its place in the standings. The Panthers are not playing well but you can almost always expect an effort from them and this one should be no different. This choice is predicated on the fact that the Sens might very well show up in body only and that makes them very vulnerable in this spot. Play: Florida +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco +1.22 over HOUSTON
To start the season the winner of the first game has a psychological edge in the second game and you can double that for a team that is predicted to be rotten like the Astros. That first win is sometimes the most difficult one. The big problem for the Giants over the past few years has been offense or a lack thereof. However, there’s a good chance they’ll show quite a bit more pop this season with the addition of Aubrey Huff, a guy who can put up solid numbers when he knows he’ll be penciled in every day. Aaron Rowand, Jose Uribe, Mark DeRosa and Bengie Molina are all capable of producing more and Pablo Sandoval is the real deal at third. The Giants pounded out 10 hits yesterday and that has to boost the confidence of the offense. The Astros on the other hand started the season with Lance Berkman on the rack, Jose Feliz, a 35-year old 3rd baseman who’s offensive numbers keep declining and a very average second baseman by the name of Kazuo Matsui. Wandy has been very reliable over the past couple of years but he had a brutal spring and his confidence could be shot. He never pitched more than four innings this spring and he closed by allowing 17 earned runs over 10.1 innings in his last three games. Overall in the spring, Rodriguez allowed 34 hits in 19 innings and his ERA was an alarming 12.10. It’s anyone’s guess as to how Barry Zito will pitch. It’s simply impossible to predict, as he could get rocked on any given day or he can go a solid six. Anyway, this choice is more about playing on the Giants against the Astros plus a tag as oppose to playing pitcher vs pitcher, although Rodriguez was brutally awful in the spring. Play: San Francisco +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
NY Rangers +1.04 over BUFFALO
Is there a more determined team to get into the playoff right now then the Rangers? I don’t think there is. This team has won three straight and they’ve been very impressive in doing so, outscoring its opponents 13-4. You can’t help but like the fact that the Rangers are scoring goals and they get great goaltending from and that combo is a deadly one. Meanwhile, the Sabres are coming off back-to-back losses to the Leafs and Canadiens in which they scored just two goals combined. They beat the Bruins recently but were badly outplayed in that one and as a result they should have three losses in its last four. It would appear as though the Sabres are content to just end the season already and start the playoffs. They’re pretty much a lock to win their division, as they sit five points ahead of the Sens with just three games left for Ottawa. So, what we’re getting here is a very determined club, plus a small tag, that’s playing great against a team that is in relax mode. Play: N.Y. Rangers +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Carolina +1.03 over TAMPA BAY
The only interesting thing left for the Lightning is where they’ll draft and whether or not Steven Stamkos scores 50. With a building that will be three-quarters empty, nothing to play for and laying juice, the Lightning are unappealing at best. Also, Antero Nittymaki is a guy that has to be tremendously focused to have a shot at a good game and that’s unlikely. Nittymaki can be brutally awful and that should be a huge concern for anyone considering laying the small number. Meanwhile, the Canes have not lost in regulation on the road in seven straight games. Cam Ward is one of the best and he’s playing like it. I love this guy, as he’s one of the rare, stand-up goaltenders in the league when most of them are flopping around like a fish out of water. Tampa has scored five goals in its last four games and while the Canes are playing for nothing also, they’ve been playing solid hockey for the better part of two months and they’re not showing any signs of letting up. Play: Carolina +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA +1.23 over Ottawa
Speaking of teams that are not going anywhere in terms of the standings and one need not look further than the Sens. This team is firmly situated in fifth place in the East, six points behind the Penguins and five points ahead of the Habs. In other words, they’re going to finish in fifth with no chance of finishing higher or lower. Now they’ll make a two-game trip to Florida just before the playoffs begin and one must wonder what the Sens motivation will be. They’re coming off a 4-1 loss to the Islanders after a six game winning streak, which ultimately solidified its place in the standings. The Panthers are not playing well but you can almost always expect an effort from them and this one should be no different. This choice is predicated on the fact that the Sens might very well show up in body only and that makes them very vulnerable in this spot. Play: Florida +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
jeff benton tuesday selections
1-1 yesterday...10-13-1 MINUS 105 dimes since my debut.
Tuesday's Action 15 Dime: JAZZ
10 Dime: RAYS on the run-line (minus 1 1/2 runs) ... NOTE: List James Shields and Kevin Millwood as the starting pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!
Jazz
Nobody loves the Oklahoma City Thunder as much as I do – not only have they been the NBA’s best story this year, but they’ve made their supporters a ton of cash (their 45-31 ATS mark ranks third in the league, and that includes a terrific 25-13 ATS road record).
However, this is an absolute must-win game for Utah, which is tied with Denver atop the Northwest Division standings, and both teams are just 1½ games ahead of Oklahoma City. The Jazz also need this game for their psyche, as they’ve lost all three previous meetings to the Thunder this season, including a 104-94 home loss back around Thanksgiving (the other two games were played in Oklahoma).
As good as the Thunder have been, the Jazz have been a little bit better in pretty much all facets. Not only is Utah’s overall record better, but the Jazz are actually better against the spread (47-27-3) than Oklahoma City. They’re also better at home (31-8 SU, 26-11-2 ATS) than the Thunder are on the road (23-15 SU, 25-13 ATS), and the Jazz average 104 ppg overall on 49.1 percent shooting, compared with Oklahoma City’s 100.9 ppg on 46.3 percent shooting.
Utah comes into this game on a nine-game home winning streak, and it has cashed eight of those nine victories. The average margin of victory in those nine wins: 16.7 ppg.
Finally, the Thunder are in a brutal scheduling spot. They went from Philadelphia (March 30) to Boston (March 31) to Dallas (Saturday), then came home to play the TWolves (Sunday). Now they face the Jazz in Utah tonight, go home to play the Nuggets tomorrow and the Suns on Friday, followed by a trip to Golden State (Sunday) and Portland (Monday). Add it up and that’s nine games in 14 days, with six of those nine games on the road and six of those nine games against playoff opponents. In fact, stretch it back to March 26, and Oklahoma City is in the midst of a stretch in which it is playing eight of 11 games against teams – Lakers, Blazers (twice), Celtics, Mavericks, Jazz, Nuggets and Suns – that will qualify for the postseason.
Bottom line: As noted above, the Jazz have to have this game. At the same time, because of the scheduling situation, this contest is going to test the mental capabilities of the young Thunder. And with another game against a divisional rival 24 hours away (back at home), I have to believe this is one of those late-season flat spots we always see in the NBA.
Rays (-1½ runs)
I actually think the Baltimore Orioles will be much-improved this season and will finally climb out of the A.L. East cellar. But I also believe Tampa Bay will return to its 2008 form – when it went to its first World Series – and challenge the Yankees and Red Sox for the division crown.
The Rays are absolutely loaded, with five All-Stars sprinkled through their balanced lineup and a bunch of young, strong arms both in the starting rotation and bullpen. And for the first time since I can remember, Tampa Bay has a bonafide closer in flame-thrower Rafael Soriano, who had a career-best 27 saves for the Braves last year. Soriano was easily the Rays’ biggest offseason acquisition, as the lack of a regular stopper at the back of the bullpen was the reason Tampa finished with only 84 wins last year.
Tonight, the Rays trot out veteran right-hander James Shields, who is far better than his numbers last year (11-12, 4.14 ERA) show. During the Rays’ World Series run in 2008, Shields was 14-8 with a 3.18 ERA, and he’s been the team’s workhorse the last three years, making 31, 33 and 33 starts. Shields has been way more dominant in his career at home (26-14, 3.38 ERA) than on the road (17-22, 4.76 ERA), and the same held true last year when his home ERA (3.75) was nearly a fun run lower than his road ERA (4.62).
Then again, Shields’ success at home just mirrors that of his team. Over the past two seasons, Tampa Bay is 109-53 at Tropicana Field, the second-best home record in baseball during this stretch. That includes a 16-5 record the last 21 times the Rays have hosted Baltimore. Overall, Tampa is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in this rivalry.
Shields himself has had his way with the O’s, going 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and a 70-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 starts. Finally, the Rays are 9-1 in Shields’ last 10 starts against the O’s, including 5-1 in the last six at home. And seven of Tampa’s last eight wins against Baltimore with Shields pitching have been by multiple runs.
Throw in the fact that Tampa’s potent lineup has feasted on Baltimore starter Kevin Millwood (6.18 ERA in five career start vs. the Rays), and this has all the makings of a multiple-run rout.
1-1 yesterday...10-13-1 MINUS 105 dimes since my debut.
Tuesday's Action 15 Dime: JAZZ
10 Dime: RAYS on the run-line (minus 1 1/2 runs) ... NOTE: List James Shields and Kevin Millwood as the starting pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!
Jazz
Nobody loves the Oklahoma City Thunder as much as I do – not only have they been the NBA’s best story this year, but they’ve made their supporters a ton of cash (their 45-31 ATS mark ranks third in the league, and that includes a terrific 25-13 ATS road record).
However, this is an absolute must-win game for Utah, which is tied with Denver atop the Northwest Division standings, and both teams are just 1½ games ahead of Oklahoma City. The Jazz also need this game for their psyche, as they’ve lost all three previous meetings to the Thunder this season, including a 104-94 home loss back around Thanksgiving (the other two games were played in Oklahoma).
As good as the Thunder have been, the Jazz have been a little bit better in pretty much all facets. Not only is Utah’s overall record better, but the Jazz are actually better against the spread (47-27-3) than Oklahoma City. They’re also better at home (31-8 SU, 26-11-2 ATS) than the Thunder are on the road (23-15 SU, 25-13 ATS), and the Jazz average 104 ppg overall on 49.1 percent shooting, compared with Oklahoma City’s 100.9 ppg on 46.3 percent shooting.
Utah comes into this game on a nine-game home winning streak, and it has cashed eight of those nine victories. The average margin of victory in those nine wins: 16.7 ppg.
Finally, the Thunder are in a brutal scheduling spot. They went from Philadelphia (March 30) to Boston (March 31) to Dallas (Saturday), then came home to play the TWolves (Sunday). Now they face the Jazz in Utah tonight, go home to play the Nuggets tomorrow and the Suns on Friday, followed by a trip to Golden State (Sunday) and Portland (Monday). Add it up and that’s nine games in 14 days, with six of those nine games on the road and six of those nine games against playoff opponents. In fact, stretch it back to March 26, and Oklahoma City is in the midst of a stretch in which it is playing eight of 11 games against teams – Lakers, Blazers (twice), Celtics, Mavericks, Jazz, Nuggets and Suns – that will qualify for the postseason.
Bottom line: As noted above, the Jazz have to have this game. At the same time, because of the scheduling situation, this contest is going to test the mental capabilities of the young Thunder. And with another game against a divisional rival 24 hours away (back at home), I have to believe this is one of those late-season flat spots we always see in the NBA.
Rays (-1½ runs)
I actually think the Baltimore Orioles will be much-improved this season and will finally climb out of the A.L. East cellar. But I also believe Tampa Bay will return to its 2008 form – when it went to its first World Series – and challenge the Yankees and Red Sox for the division crown.
The Rays are absolutely loaded, with five All-Stars sprinkled through their balanced lineup and a bunch of young, strong arms both in the starting rotation and bullpen. And for the first time since I can remember, Tampa Bay has a bonafide closer in flame-thrower Rafael Soriano, who had a career-best 27 saves for the Braves last year. Soriano was easily the Rays’ biggest offseason acquisition, as the lack of a regular stopper at the back of the bullpen was the reason Tampa finished with only 84 wins last year.
Tonight, the Rays trot out veteran right-hander James Shields, who is far better than his numbers last year (11-12, 4.14 ERA) show. During the Rays’ World Series run in 2008, Shields was 14-8 with a 3.18 ERA, and he’s been the team’s workhorse the last three years, making 31, 33 and 33 starts. Shields has been way more dominant in his career at home (26-14, 3.38 ERA) than on the road (17-22, 4.76 ERA), and the same held true last year when his home ERA (3.75) was nearly a fun run lower than his road ERA (4.62).
Then again, Shields’ success at home just mirrors that of his team. Over the past two seasons, Tampa Bay is 109-53 at Tropicana Field, the second-best home record in baseball during this stretch. That includes a 16-5 record the last 21 times the Rays have hosted Baltimore. Overall, Tampa is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in this rivalry.
Shields himself has had his way with the O’s, going 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and a 70-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 starts. Finally, the Rays are 9-1 in Shields’ last 10 starts against the O’s, including 5-1 in the last six at home. And seven of Tampa’s last eight wins against Baltimore with Shields pitching have been by multiple runs.
Throw in the fact that Tampa’s potent lineup has feasted on Baltimore starter Kevin Millwood (6.18 ERA in five career start vs. the Rays), and this has all the makings of a multiple-run rout.
Brandon Lang
Bonus Play
Nice Bonus Play winner on the Pacers Sunday crushing the Rockets, and I followed it up on Monday with a Bonus Play winner on Seattle in MLB.
For Tuesday going to lay the points with the Bulls at home over the Bucks.
I think the loss of Andrew Bogut is really going to hurt Milwaukee down the strecth, and tonight they are facing a Chicago team that cannot afford any slip ups, as the Bulls are currently a game behind the Raptors for the 8th and final playoff spot.
Chicago has won and covered 2 in a row, and 6 of their last 8, and at home I like them to get the win and cover.
The home team has won 4 straight in this series and 8 of the last 10.
Home team comes through again tonight. Take the Bulls.
Bonus Play
Nice Bonus Play winner on the Pacers Sunday crushing the Rockets, and I followed it up on Monday with a Bonus Play winner on Seattle in MLB.
For Tuesday going to lay the points with the Bulls at home over the Bucks.
I think the loss of Andrew Bogut is really going to hurt Milwaukee down the strecth, and tonight they are facing a Chicago team that cannot afford any slip ups, as the Bulls are currently a game behind the Raptors for the 8th and final playoff spot.
Chicago has won and covered 2 in a row, and 6 of their last 8, and at home I like them to get the win and cover.
The home team has won 4 straight in this series and 8 of the last 10.
Home team comes through again tonight. Take the Bulls.
