nyy run line write-up. pretty amazing
Here is a great opportunity to make a solid run-line play. We have two strong trends from the 2011 MLB Handicapping Bible going here. They are: “MIN006: The Twins are 0-24 (-3.8 rpg) since 2004 as a road dog of more than 130 when they are off a loss in which they drew at most a single walk,” and “NYY001: The Yankees are 24-0 (+4.6 rpg) at home when they are off a win as a favorite of more than 130 in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is not the first game of a series.”
That’s a 24-0 play on and a 0-24 play against. AND check out those Margins. The Twins are losing by an average of 3.8 runs per game an the Yankees are winning by an average of 4.6 runs per game. Nice.
We’re not done. We also have a starter-based trend that reads, “C. C. Sabathia has produced a team record of 22-0 (+5.3 rpg) since April 22nd, 2009 as a 200+ favorite when he is off a start in which he had a WHIP of less than two and threw 100+ pitches. He has allowed an average of 2.00 runs per game and has went an average of 7.27 innings. 21 of the 22 wins were by multiple runs, making this situation a great play on the run-line.” AND in the only one-run win (run-line loss), Sabathia left after eight and two-thirds with the Yankees winning 4-1, but the Royals scored two runs thereafter to lose only 4-3. This one is almost 22-0 on the run-line.
In addition, New York was a perfect 10-0 last season as a home 200+ favorite when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start and 6-0 as a home favorite of more than 130 when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is not the first game of a series, winning by an average of 5.3 runs per game.
In Duensing’s two starts vs the Yankees, he allowed five runs in each and did not make it to the fifth inning in either start. Why isn’t his line -330? Take the opportunity to get the Yankees at about pick on the run-line.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY YANKEES 7 Minnesota 2