Kevin's Pick(s):
The D'backs continued their early season struggles as they lost 7-3 to the Mets last night. They don't have a bad lineup, but until they can figure it out I am staying away from betting on them.
2 UNIT = Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros - ROYALS TO WIN (-145)
Listed Pitchers: Ventura vs Harrell
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.38 units)
The Royals enter tonight's game with a 4-7 record, and a winless 0-5 road record. The good news for them tonight is they will face a weaker Astros opponent who is 5-8 on the season (3-4 at home). Tonight's match up features Yordano Ventura for the Royals vs Lucas Harrell for the Astros. Ventura impressed in his first start of the year as he went 6 innings vs the Rays giving up just 2 hits with 6 strikeouts and 0 walks. Hitting 100 MPH on the radar gun and showing enough control not to walk a batter is impressive, and should give the worst hitting team in the Majors (so far this season) some troubles. On the other hand Lucas Harrell has pretty much started off where he left off last year. In 2012 he was 11-1 with a 3.76 ERA, but followed that up last season with a 6-17 record and 5.86 ERA. He then had a rough Spring Training where he had a 7.80 ERA with batters hitting .369 against him. So far that has carried into the regular season, as his two starts have lasted a combined 7.1 innings with an 0-2 record, 11.05 ERA, .389 OBA and 2.73 WHIP. I don't see any signs of Harrell being a big league pitcher right now, and he has had his struggles with KC in his career. In two starts he has a 5.23 ERA, .275 OBA and 1.65 WHIP vs the Royals. Note that the Astros are just 7-20 in Harrell's last 27 starts and 2-7 in his last 9 home starts. The Royals have taken 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Astros, and with Ventura on the mound tonight I expect another win from KC tonight. Laying -145 still has value in my opinion, as I figured the line to be about -180.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = L.A. Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants - OVER 7.5 RUNS (-110)
Listed Pitchers: Beckett vs. Lincecum
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)
Our pick gets cancelled out yesterday, as the score was 7-7 when the suspension was called. It was a back and forth affair that produced 10 home runs before they shut it down. Rodriguez' performance was certainly predicted, but Homer Bailey was a lost cause, too.
I think the total in this game is being based off past success. If we were getting 7.5 in the prime of their careers I would be jumping all over the under in this spot. However, they are both nearing the end of their careers. Both former stand outs, Josh Beckett and Tim Lincecum are shells of their former selves. Lincecum was once unhittable, but the steam is starting to come off his delivery. His ERA of 2.74 in 2011 blew up to 5.18 the next year. Last year he bounced back slightly with a 4.37 ERA, but still nothing how we once knew him. In two starts this season, Lincecum has gotten absolutely rocked. He is coming into Tuesday night with a 9.90 ERA, .356 OBP, and 1.60 WHIP. Note that in his one home start on the 9th, his ERA reached 15.75 against the Diamondbacks. He will face an even stronger test in the Dodgers tonight. A team that has scored 22 runs their last three games, including back-to-back 8 run efforts in the last two. I think Beckett is going to continue to regress this year. He sported a 5.19 ERA in only 8 starts last season because of injury. In his last healthy season with the Red Sox in 2012, Beckett produced a 5.23 ERA. Like Lincecum, he has also been getting hit hard this year so far. In his only start against the Tigers, Beckett lasted only 4 innings while giving up 4 runs. If this was 2011 we would probably have a pitchers' duel on our hands, but both are now in the twilight of their careers. Getting the OVER at 7.5 is a pretty good deal to me.
Cheers,
Kevin