This is just to expand a bit on bigmike83's post #14 above. Sound reasoning makes one want to punch the
VALPO CRUSADERS even though they're going to have to get there carrying the weight of The Brandon Link.
S Merrill's Marauders = CBB Sides - Tuesday, Mar 22 2016 7:00PM
#660 Valparaiso -3.0(-110) Sportsbook.ag vs #659 St. Mary's (Cal.) double-dime bet
Analysis:St. Mary’s had a fantastic season, and there was disbelief by many that the Gaels did not receive an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament. St. Mary’s comes into tonight’s game at Valparaiso with an impressive 29-5 record, but they’ve certainly had some favorable things in their corner to reach that record. Twenty of St. Mary’s twenty-nine wins have come on their home court. St. Mary’s has yet to cross the Rocky Mountains this season, so they’ve had little travel involved as well. The Gaels have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition; they have the 156th rated schedule this season. St. Mary’s best wins came over Gonzaga twice, and while those wins look good now with the Zags in the Sweet 16, keep in mind Gonzaga was given an #11 seed in the tournament despite beating St. Mary’s in the conference championship game. St. Mary’s has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.
Valparaiso also played terrific basketball this season, and the Crusaders were also on the bubble of an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament. Valparaiso has the benefit of playing this game on their home court where they are 16-1 SU this season. The Crusaders own an impressive +15.5 point differential at home, and they’ve won both NIT home games by double digits. Valparaiso’s defense is holding their opponents to just 62 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land on their home court. St. Mary’s offense is only averaging 68.5 points per game on the road this season. “Only by winning this whole thing we can erase the sting we have of not making the tournament,” senior Keith Carter said. “We’re a close knit group and we’re hungry to keep winning ga …mes.” We’ll lay the points with the Crusaders in this game on Tuesday night.
2* Play VALPARAISO (-).
Pick Made: Mar 22 2016 10:54AM PST
VALPO CRUSADERS even though they're going to have to get there carrying the weight of The Brandon Link.
S Merrill's Marauders = CBB Sides - Tuesday, Mar 22 2016 7:00PM
#660 Valparaiso -3.0(-110) Sportsbook.ag vs #659 St. Mary's (Cal.) double-dime bet
Analysis:St. Mary’s had a fantastic season, and there was disbelief by many that the Gaels did not receive an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament. St. Mary’s comes into tonight’s game at Valparaiso with an impressive 29-5 record, but they’ve certainly had some favorable things in their corner to reach that record. Twenty of St. Mary’s twenty-nine wins have come on their home court. St. Mary’s has yet to cross the Rocky Mountains this season, so they’ve had little travel involved as well. The Gaels have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition; they have the 156th rated schedule this season. St. Mary’s best wins came over Gonzaga twice, and while those wins look good now with the Zags in the Sweet 16, keep in mind Gonzaga was given an #11 seed in the tournament despite beating St. Mary’s in the conference championship game. St. Mary’s has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.
Valparaiso also played terrific basketball this season, and the Crusaders were also on the bubble of an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament. Valparaiso has the benefit of playing this game on their home court where they are 16-1 SU this season. The Crusaders own an impressive +15.5 point differential at home, and they’ve won both NIT home games by double digits. Valparaiso’s defense is holding their opponents to just 62 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land on their home court. St. Mary’s offense is only averaging 68.5 points per game on the road this season. “Only by winning this whole thing we can erase the sting we have of not making the tournament,” senior Keith Carter said. “We’re a close knit group and we’re hungry to keep winning ga …mes.” We’ll lay the points with the Crusaders in this game on Tuesday night.
2* Play VALPARAISO (-).
Pick Made: Mar 22 2016 10:54AM PST
Esler's rationale also interesting:
D Esler = CBB Sides - Tuesday, Mar 22 2016 7:00PM
#660 Valparaiso -4.0(-120) Pinnacle vs #659 St. Mary's (Cal.) triple-dime bet
Analysis:2:10PM EST - Yes, I see the St. Mary's noise a while ago and about the only thing that's frustrating is not waiting for a better number - but, you guys know I like to get them out ea èrly for those that can/do wait. Perhaps (and I haven't looked yet) a market mover (a tout who has influence) released St. Mary's - it's likely with all that action at once. I don't care - I did the work and explained my reasoning. If you made me bet the other NIT game, I lean Creighton and may add them, we'll see. It's really a matter of Creighton being (IMO) a better team who played better competition all season, and is playing well at the right time.
This may go to -4 on it's own, but I always want my plays out as early as I can. I like this to -5 but simply won't take chances I don't have to. This is the NIT quarter finals, meaning the winner goes to MSG (Madison Square Garden, not mono sodium glutamate) for the Nit Final Four. Valpo has lost exactly one game at home this season, to Wright State when Wright was uber hot, and Wright ended up in the Horizon League Finals. It's been the more up tempo teams that have given Valpo and kind of trouble at all - beginning in Oregon way back when (in a close game) and ending with their Horizon Tournament exit to Green Bay. St. Mary's is FAR from quick, in fact, their pace is downright slow. Valpo has had five days' rest since beating FSU, while the Gaels have had two days rest after beating UGA in California, so now they travel a few time zones on short rest. The other thing we really love here is the experience. Valpo is one of the most experienced teams in the nation and start three Seniors, while St. Mary's is one of the youngest teams in the nation and one of the shortest benches, so if Valpo gets them in foul trouble at all - there's yet another issue. If Valpo has any weakness it's turning the ball over, but lucky for them that St. Mary's is near the bottom of the nation in forcing turnovers. St. Mary's is going to walk (play slow) and shoot three's - Valpo is used to seeing three-pointers in the Horizon League. From a non-tangible standpoint, one would have to think Valpo is plenty refocused after losing to Green Bay and actually wants to win this thing (as opposed to saying screw it) and of course being veterans they know this is it for them. St. Mary's quite likely has already advanced further than preseason expectations and also know most of them will be back next season. You guys know I had laying points - but here Valpo is a great FT shooting team that can put it away late if need be, although here's to hoping it doesn't come to that.
D Esler = CBB Sides - Tuesday, Mar 22 2016 7:00PM
#660 Valparaiso -4.0(-120) Pinnacle vs #659 St. Mary's (Cal.) triple-dime bet
Analysis:2:10PM EST - Yes, I see the St. Mary's noise a while ago and about the only thing that's frustrating is not waiting for a better number - but, you guys know I like to get them out ea èrly for those that can/do wait. Perhaps (and I haven't looked yet) a market mover (a tout who has influence) released St. Mary's - it's likely with all that action at once. I don't care - I did the work and explained my reasoning. If you made me bet the other NIT game, I lean Creighton and may add them, we'll see. It's really a matter of Creighton being (IMO) a better team who played better competition all season, and is playing well at the right time.
This may go to -4 on it's own, but I always want my plays out as early as I can. I like this to -5 but simply won't take chances I don't have to. This is the NIT quarter finals, meaning the winner goes to MSG (Madison Square Garden, not mono sodium glutamate) for the Nit Final Four. Valpo has lost exactly one game at home this season, to Wright State when Wright was uber hot, and Wright ended up in the Horizon League Finals. It's been the more up tempo teams that have given Valpo and kind of trouble at all - beginning in Oregon way back when (in a close game) and ending with their Horizon Tournament exit to Green Bay. St. Mary's is FAR from quick, in fact, their pace is downright slow. Valpo has had five days' rest since beating FSU, while the Gaels have had two days rest after beating UGA in California, so now they travel a few time zones on short rest. The other thing we really love here is the experience. Valpo is one of the most experienced teams in the nation and start three Seniors, while St. Mary's is one of the youngest teams in the nation and one of the shortest benches, so if Valpo gets them in foul trouble at all - there's yet another issue. If Valpo has any weakness it's turning the ball over, but lucky for them that St. Mary's is near the bottom of the nation in forcing turnovers. St. Mary's is going to walk (play slow) and shoot three's - Valpo is used to seeing three-pointers in the Horizon League. From a non-tangible standpoint, one would have to think Valpo is plenty refocused after losing to Green Bay and actually wants to win this thing (as opposed to saying screw it) and of course being veterans they know this is it for them. St. Mary's quite likely has already advanced further than preseason expectations and also know most of them will be back next season. You guys know I had laying points - but here Valpo is a great FT shooting team that can put it away late if need be, although here's to hoping it doesn't come to that.
D Esler = NBA Sides - Tuesday, Mar 22 2016 10:35PM
#658 LAL 3.0(-120) Greek vs #657 MEM single-dime bet
Analysis: There are some books with +3 still, but in fairness I'll use -120. I cannot ignore the line move here, the fact that Kobe hasn't missed three straight games since the first week of January (he missed the last two) - but even if he doesn't play, Memphis played last night in Phoenix. They've traversed the country lately, this will be their sixth game in eight days, and until tonight no two of them consecutively at home or on the road. In contrast, the Lakers have been at home for three weeks - added to the depleted Grizzlies injury report.
Pick Made: Mar 22 2016 11:21AM PST
#658 LAL 3.0(-120) Greek vs #657 MEM single-dime bet
Analysis: There are some books with +3 still, but in fairness I'll use -120. I cannot ignore the line move here, the fact that Kobe hasn't missed three straight games since the first week of January (he missed the last two) - but even if he doesn't play, Memphis played last night in Phoenix. They've traversed the country lately, this will be their sixth game in eight days, and until tonight no two of them consecutively at home or on the road. In contrast, the Lakers have been at home for three weeks - added to the depleted Grizzlies injury report.
Pick Made: Mar 22 2016 11:21AM PST
I agree with this. Will add that Goodfella has been sub-par with his triples in MLB last couple seasons but if you bet all his picks, you would be up at the end of each season. The Bonus Plays on his blog are worth a few units each season. But Goodfella is very streaky, so you have to stick with it.
Essler is very solid, including a great year last season and his triples are also very good. He does give out a lot of "leans" along with analysis for a ton of games. Personally, I like his thinking most of the time. These two are also friends and will have several of the same plays as the season goes on. They almost never give out contradictory picks.
