VR’s Morning Moves - Tuesday, March 02, 2010
Report Status: TUESDAY MARCH 2nd, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00-12:30pm est on WED 3-3-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for TUESDAY MARCH 2nd, 2010
HANDICAPPING : PART III on “USING BETTING %’s”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…We were able to start the new month off with another NBA TRUE STEAM Winner last night…and we are really taking it to them in the NBA…We SWEPT the NBA Card again and are “12-3” (80% ATS) the L/9 Days…
With last night’s TRUE STEAM Winner…we are “55-27” (67% ATS) Overall…And on a “13-5” (73%) TRUE STEAM RUN…
Tonight, we’ll try to improve on BOTH…since I’m unloading our NBA 3* TRUE STEAM GAME OF THE WEEK with Tuesday’s PREMIUM PASS…But first, let’s get to today’s Newsletter and see if we can also cash another “Morning Move” this evening…
After taking a close look like I do each and everyday…sometimes more than once…I read in the “Morning Moves” Topics Blog at the Pregame Forums…that many of my Subscribers would like me to pass along some more information on “BETTING %’s”…
And since the main purpose and goal of this Newsletter is to cover those topics that you would like addressed, along with answering any questions that you may have…I have no problem at all, writing a PART 3 on the subject…Especially since I’ve come to realize that so many handicappers and sports bettors use that kind of information daily…And some use it as one of the most important factors in their handicapping…So let’s get to it…
We’ve covered in Parts 1 & 2...the fact that these Betting %’s are actually “Number of Tickets” written on a match-up, and not a reflection of the “Actual Money” that is bet on a particular game…In other words, we see “Volume”…but we don’t see what I like to call “Weight”…Meaning, how heavy a particular side is being bet in terms of “Money”…
Then we covered how based on “Volume” we can better distinguish if a line-move was forced by “steam”…or by the sports books as a way to attract some betting balance…And how when a game is attracting low volume from the betting public, regardless of the ticket balance, any significant line-move will most likely be forced due to “steam”…While those “Marquee” match-ups that attract a ton of betting volume may have a line-move which was influenced by the “public”…
BOTH line-moves were ultimately made due to money bet on a side/total…But the reasoning behind making the adjustment couldn’t be more different…
Finally, we saw that the volume that a particular game is attracting can also help us determine if the books are offering a “Fair Line” or a “True Line”…Because any match-up that is going to receive a lot of “Public” action, is more prone to be a “Fair Line”, which factors in public perception more heavily…While a match-up on the “Added Board” which won’t attract much public money at all…is much more prone to offer a “True Line”…in an attempt to discourage the Betting Syndicates from taking a position…that would ultimately expose the book to a bigger risk than they like to take…
Now, I’m going to discuss another way that I use these Betting % Sites…
Because I moved “steam” for so long, I can tell you for certain that most…if not all, of the Betting Syndicates are also taking action or bookmaking…And many times, these Betting Syndicates will use their own network of runners, beards, ect…to limit their own liability on a side…Meaning, when they are taking too much action on one side, many times they want to edge some of it off…And they do this by sending out a “Buy-Order” on a game within 15 minutes to game-time…
By knowing this…when I see a match-up that is attracting a lot of volume (Prime-Time/Marquee) and then I also see that the Betting % shows 1-Sided action…I can be certain that if there is a significant line-move towards that 1-sided money, that it’s simply a case of “Edging Off”…Meaning, the Outfit is dumping some of their liability on a wager to limit their exposure…
I know this because if the Betting Syndicates are going to be taking a position that the Betting Public is also expected to come in on heavy…the Wiseguys will look to get down much sooner and try to beat the market to the position to get the best possible number…So if they are going to make a significant bet, on a heavy public side…just 10 min before the game starts…you can rest assured that this is NOT “True Steam”…and instead and simple case of “Edging Off” work…
So you should not fear or even show much respect to those type of line-moves, because the Betting Syndicates are actually hoping that their wager loses…Because they are obviously already sitting on a lot of public money bet on that side with their book….
Next, when I see a significant move that goes against where the Betting %’s say that the public is on…and this line-move happens on a game that is getting a lot of volume, extremely late…I am certain that this was a planned attack and a very strong position…Because it means that the Wiseguys either decided to give the betting public a chance to force an adjustment themselves, which would then give the Outfit’s a better number…or, that they were waiting to have as many “Outs” available before announcing their position…In either case, they do this for their bigger bets…
And by making the wager during that time-span where 90% of the public bettors are also getting down…the opportunity to disguise the play, and also have the action get mixed in with all the rest being booked…may allow them the opportunity to get more down at the desired number, before the books get a chance to adjust…
Speaking of adjustments…these are also the type of plays where we see the books panic and rush to adjust to the “steam”…But they usually over-adjust initially, until they realize how much public money they have on the other side already…And then you will see another small adjustment made the other way…This is an easy way to anyone to pick off some serious “steam”…Because what happens as an example is this…TEAM A was -3...the Wiseguys unload some heavy “steam”…and the books go to TEAM A -4.5...But then they see that the already had a ton of public money on TEAM B…so in a few minutes, they will move it back up to -4 or sometimes even -3.5...Just enough so that the Wiseguys stop “steaming” it, since we know that they look for particular numbers…
Now we are getting into some much deeper and more difficult concepts that I may need more time and detail to explain…But I love the fact that so many of you want it…So I do plan on going even deeper into the “BETTING %” topic…And PLEASE stop by the Forum and let me know what you think about the Newsletters so far…And more importantly, what you would like to see covered in the future…
Thanks again for all your support…and best of luck…Vegas-Runner
LINE-PREDICTION :
1.) 533-534 OVER 138 GTECH/CLEM
This total opened at 137.5 and took some Wiseguy Money on the Over, which forced the adjustment to 138...where it’s now at all across the board…But from what I’ve been told, we haven’t seen the last adjustment just yet…because the Outfits are looking to “steam” the Over once again…Now this may be a case of the Betting Syndicates taking a “True Position”…Or it may be a case of them simply trying to get out ahead of the market, since the public is expected to also bet the Over…Regardless, if this is a total that you plan on betting tonight, I think that we should only see it go higher…rather than lower, throughout the day…VR
Tue, 03/02/10 - 8:00 PM VR's Morning Moves | CBB Sides
double-dime bet 534 Clemson -7.0 (-110) BetUS vs 533 Georgia Tech
Analysis:
** CBB MORNING MOVES 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
We are getting some Line-Value in this match-up with the Home Team...
Georgia Tech has managed to win only 3 of 10 road games this season...And now they go into Clemson, who has lost only "2" times there all season long...Clemson has won 4 straight at home and covered 3 of those, so I look for them to get some revenge for the last time Tech came to town...
Clemson will be too much for Tech in this one and cruise to double-digit home win according to my "True Line"...VR
Valpo has been competitive in 9 of those 10 with the only blowout loss in bracket-buster against Bowling Green.
