SPORTS ADVISORS
TUESDAY, MARCH 2
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(9) Villanova (23-5, 17-10 ATS) at Cincinnati (16-12, 7-16 ATS)
Villanova returns to the court for the first time since Saturday’s humiliating loss at Syracuse when it travels to Fifth Third Arena for a Big East battle with the Bearcats, who are in need of a marquee win to boost their Tournament resume.
The Wildcats jumped out to a quick lead at Syracuse but couldn’t sustain it and eventually got rocked 95-77 as a 4½-point road underdog. Villanova has followed up a 12-game winning streak – including nine consecutive Big East victories – by going 3-4 over its last seven contests, including 1-3 SU and ATS on the road. Also, the Wildcats are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after starting the season by cashing in 15 of their first 19 contests.
Cincinnati has failed to gain any traction since opening the Big East season with consecutive wins over UConn and Rutgers, dropping nine of its last 15 games (3-11 ATS in lined action). On Saturday, the Bearcats went to No. 8 West Virginia and built a six-point halftime lead, only to fall 74-68, though they did cover as a 13-point road underdog. Cincy is 5-3 in Big East home games, but 0-8 ATS. Going back to Dec. 10, Cincinnati has failed to cover in nine straight lined contests at Fifth Third Arena.
The home team has won the last three meetings in this budding rivalry and is 4-0 ATS in four clashes since Cincinnati joined the Big East in 2005-06. Last year, Villanova rolled 71-50 as an 11½-point chalk. The Wildcats have won three of the four meetings (2-2 ATS), all as a favorite.
Not only is ‘Nova 1-4 ATS in its last five games (all in conference), but it has failed to cover in five of its last seven versus winning teams. Similarly, Cincinnati is mired in a slew of pointspread slumps, including 7-20 overall, 0-9 at home, 5-18 versus Big East foes, 1-10 after a SU loss, 0-4 after a spread-cover, 4-14 against winning teams and 1-4 on Tuesday.
The high-scoring Wildcats are on “over” streaks of 16-6 overall, 6-1 on the road, 6-2 after a non-cover and 7-2 after a SU defeat. The over is also 4-1 in Cincy’s last five at home, but the Bearcats are also on “under” runs of 5-2 on Tuesday, 7-3 after a defeat and 9-4-1 following a non-cover. Finally, the last three meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA
(13) Vanderbilt (22-6, 14-12 ATS) at Florida (20-9, 13-11 ATS)
The Commodores hit the road for the second time in three days when they head to the O’Connell Center looking to damage Florida’s Big Dance hopes in a key SEC clash.
Vanderbilt suffered a heartbreaking two-point home loss to then-No. 2 Kentucky on Feb. 20, but it rebounded last week with consecutive league wins over Georgia at home (96-94 in overtime on Thursday) and Arkansas on the road (89-72 on Saturday). In the victory over the Razorbacks, the Commodores cashed as a two-point road favorite, but they’re still just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
The Gators ran their winning streak to three in a row with last Tuesday’s 75-62 home rout of No. 19 Tennessee to move off the Tournament bubble. But they got right back on that bubble Saturday by losing 78-76 at Georgia as a two-point road favorite. Although Florida has failed to cover in four of its last six games (following a 6-1 ATS run), Billy Donovan’s squad is still 9-3 SU in its last 12 conference games.
The Commodores are 8-5 away from home (7-5 ATS in lined games), including 5-2 SU and ATS in SEC road games (with the winner covering the spread in all seven games). The Gators are 13-3 at the O’Connell Center (6-6 ATS), including six straight conference home wins (4-2 ATS) since losing to Kentucky 89-77 in their first league contest in Gainesville.
Vanderbilt had little trouble with Florida when these teams met in Nashville on Jan. 9, winning 95-87 as a 5½-point home favorite. That ended the Gators’ two-game SU and four-game ATS winning streaks in this rivalry. Florida is still 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings (6-3 ATS in the last nine), and it has cashed in five of the last seven clashes in Gainesville.
The Commodores have failed to cover the spread in four straight games when coming off an ATS triumph, but they’re on positive pointspread rolls of 5-2 on the highway (all in the SEC), 9-3 on Tuesday and 9-4 versus winning teams. Florida is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against winning teams, but 3-7 ATS in its last 10 on Tuesday and 6-15 ATS in its last 21 after a SU defeat.
Vanderbilt, which averages 79.1 ppg, are on “over” runs of 10-2 overall, 10-2 on the road, 20-7 in SEC play and 7-2 after a SU victory. The Gators have topped the total in four of their last five SEC outings and 19 of 28 after a SU defeat, but the under is 12-5 in their last 17 home games. Additionally, four of the last five series battles at Florida have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Georgia Tech (19-9, 13-8-1 ATS) at Clemson (20-8, 13-12 ATS)
Two ACC squads looking to enhance their March credentials hook up at Littlejohn Coliseum, where Clemson hosts the Yellow Jackets.
Georgia Tech bounced back from a tough two-point loss at Maryland by taking out Boston College 73-68 on Saturday, but failed to cover as a 7½-point home favorite. The Yellow Jackets are just 3-4 in their last seven games (2-4-1 ATS), and they’ve lost five straight ACC road games (2-2-1 ATS). However, three of those five were two-point road setbacks. For the season, Georgia Tech is 3-7 in true road games (5-4-1 ATS).
The Tigers continued their late-season surge with Sunday’s 53-50 come-from-behind victory at Florida State as a five-point road underdog. Clemson has won four of its last five games overall and five of its last seven, including four straight home wins. However, the Tigers are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 (all in the ACC), alternating spread-covers in their last eight outings. Clemson is 13-2 and 9-3 ATS at Littlejohn Coliseum, where it outscores visitors by nearly 17 ppg (76.3-59.4).
Clemson went to Atlanta on Jan. 19 and lost 66-64 to the Yellow Jackets as a one-point road underdog, which kick-started a three-game losing skid that preceded the Tigers’ current 5-2 run. Georgia Tech has won the last two meetings (including a five-point victory as an 8½-point underdog in last year’s ACC tournament), but the home team is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight regular-season clashes, including Clemson’s 73-59 home win as a 13-point chalk last season.
Also in this rivalry, the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven, with the SU winner covering the spread in each of those contests.
Georgia Tech carries ATS trends of 17-8-1 overall, 9-4-1 on the highway, 3-1-1 after a SU victory and 5-1-1 following a non-cover. Clemson has cashed in nine of 11 at home and five of seven on Tuesday, but it is 1-5 ATS in its last six after a SU victory and 0-4 ATS in its last four after a non-cover.
The under is on runs of 5-2 for the Jackets on Tuesday, 5-1 for the Jackets after a non-cover, 13-6 for the Tigers overall, 19-7 for the Tigers at home and 5-1 for the Tigers versus winning teams. Also, the last two series meetings at Clemson have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON and UNDER
NBA
Boston (36-21, 21-35-1 ATS) at Detroit (21-38, 25-32-2 ATS)
The slumping Celtics, coming off consecutive home losses, try to regain momentum when they trek to The Palace in Auburn Hills, Mich., for an Eastern Conference contest against the Pistons.
Boston blew an eight-point lead to Cleveland on Thursday, getting outscored 60-32 in the second half of a 108-88 loss as a 2½-point home underdog. Things got even worse Saturday, though, when they hosted the Nets (5-53) and lost 104-96 as a 10½-point home favorite. Going back to Dec. 27, Boston is just 13-16 SU and 8-20-1 ATS, including 4-15-1 ATS in its last 20 and 0-4 ATS in the last four. On the bright side, Doc Rivers’ squad still sports one of the best road records in the NBA at 20-10 (15-15 ATS).
Detroit returns home after a four-game Western Conference road trip that started with a 101-89 victory in Sacramento as a 2½-point underdog last Tuesday but ended with three consecutive losses (1-2 ATS) to the Clippers, Nuggets and Warriors by 6, 5 and 7 points. The Pistons have dropped 12 of their last 18 games (6-11-1 ATS), going 3-7 in their last nine at home (2-7-1 ATS). Going back to mid-December, they’re 10-26 SU (11-24-1 ATS), including 6-12 at The Palace (5-12-1 ATS).
One of Detroit’s recent home victories came against Boston on Jan. 20, when the Pistons rolled 92-86 as a six-point underdog. They’ve won the last two in a row in this rivalry (SU and ATS) following a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run by the Celtics. That said, the visitor is has won and covered four of the last six meetings; the visitor is 14-5 ATS in the last 19; the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10; Boston is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 trips to Motown; and the SU winner has covered in each of the last six meetings and 14 of the last 15.
In addition to their current 8-20-1 ATS slump overall, the Celtics are in pointspread ruts of 0-6 in Eastern Conference games, 0-4 versus the Central Division, 0-4 versus losing teams, 0-4 on Tuesday and 5-15-1 when coming off a SU defeat. The Pistons have cashed in six straight Tuesday contests and they’re 3-1-1 ATS in their last five against Atlantic Division teams, but from there, they’re on ATS slides 2-6-1 against the Eastern Conference, 2-5 versus winning teams, 25-51-1 after a SU defeat and 23-50-1 after an ATS setback.
Boston has topped the total in four straight games overall, and the over is 18-8-1 in its last 27 following two days off. However, the under is 5-1 in its last six on the road and 5-1 in its last six against Central Division opponents, while Detroit is on “under” runs of 10-3 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1 versus opponents with a winning record and 4-1 on Tuesday.
Finally, 16 of the last 21 meetings between these rivals have stayed low, including the last seven in a row in Detroit.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
yn and Paul Mara.
