Sportswagers
Dallas @ PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA -½ +140 over Dallas
Regulation only. We’re learning that playing regulation at this time of year is much riskier because every point is so crucial. Teams that are fighting for the playoffs or for positioning want at least that one point before going for two. However, that applies much less to teams that are “out of it”. Both the Flyers and Stars are hanging by a thread and they know it. They’ll be no playing for a point in this one. The Stars got Tyler Seguin back in their last game and he immediately contributed with two goals in a loss at Tampa Bay. That’s nice but that’s not a reason to back the Stars here. The market has seen Dallas taking money all day and now we’re going to go against that public money. Dallas was not winning with Seguin before he was injured. They are a sloppy team that gives up way too many scoring chances and that’s when they show up. When they have a bad game or a less intensified showing, they are so easy to beat. Furthermore, Kari Lehtonen looks absolutely brutal lately. That guy is fighting every puck that comes his way. We cannot stress enough how shaky Lehtonen has looked for the past three weeks. Lehtonen has posted save percentages of .786, .826, .806 and .824 in four of his past five games.
Steve Mason almost always gives the Flyers a chance to win, especially at home. Philadelphia has been tough as shoe leather at home too. In fact, Philly’s last five home games at home occurred against Nashville, Washington, the Rangers, Calgary and St. Louis. They picked up nine out of a possible 10 points against that extremely tough group with only loss over that span occurring against Calgary in OT. They outshot the Flames in that game. 36-27. Philly is ready to explode with some goals too. They are getting a lot more chances these days from several different sources. You can now add the names of Ryan White and Michael Raffl to the growing list of Flyers that are contributing. The Courtier/Read/Simmons line has been playing outstanding hockey for a month as well. The bottom line is that the Flyers win a lot more games at home than they lose and this opponent is much softer than the previous five. The reward is worth the risk in a game the Flyers have a damn good shot of exploding in.
Our Pick
PHILADELPHIA -½ +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)
N.Y. Rangers @ N.Y. ISLANDERS
N.Y. Rangers +101 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. These two have met four times this year and the Islanders have won three of those while outscoring the Rangers 19-10. That’s somewhat absurd but it is also indicative of the season the Islanders are having. Indeed the Islanders are having a great year but none of it makes sense. The Isles have some goal scorers and John Tavares is truly among the best but of all the “power” teams in the NHL, the Islanders are the most flawed and it’s not even close. The Islanders have compiled 43 wins through smoke and mirrors. Of the 30 teams in the league, the Isles rank 23rd in goals against and 29th on the penalty kill. That penalty killing unit puts them on par with teams like the Maple Leafs, Arizona, Florida and Colorado. The seven teams that have allowed more goals than the Islanders are Edmonton, Arizona, Dallas, Columbus, Philadelphia, Buffalo and Toronto. What those seven teams have in common is that none of them are going to the playoffs. Only three teams, Arizona, Dallas and Edmonton have a worse Team Opponent Shooting Percentage (measures the rate at which the opposing team scores goals as a percentage of shots on goals) than the Islanders. The Islanders are not a true power at all. They have erratic goaltending, weak defense and while Tavares is one of the favorites to win the Hart Trophy, the real Hart Trophy winner on this team is luck and their fourth line. Without the great play of that fourth line, the Islanders might be gasping for air right now, as opposed to being in a comfortable playoff position. This is a team to attack the rest of the way and into the playoffs and we’ll get right to it in this one.
The Rangers are anything but smoke and mirrors. The Rangers rank third in the league in goals against and 9th in penalty killing, which are both 20 positions higher than the Islanders. They have been the league’s hottest team for weeks and even when they lose it’s only because of running into a hot goaltender. The Rangers RARELY get outplayed. Offensively, The Rags are just as good, if not better than the Islanders too. The Rangers have better balanced scoring and a huge edge in goals differential (+42 to +19). In two and three goals games, a truer measure of strength than one goal games, the Rangers are 22-11 while the Islanders are 18-16. You can break this one down a million times and you’ll come up with the same equation every time. That equation says that the Rangers are so superior to the Islanders that it’s not even comparable. Once again, wins and losses dictate the betting line and that’s a market flaw that we’ll continue to go after. Rangers are a dog here but in terms of value, the Rangers win expectation is so much higher than the Islanders, which makes them an instant play in this one.
Our Pick
N.Y. Rangers +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)
Tampa Bay @ MONTREAL
Tampa Bay +104 over MONTREAL
OT included. In last season’s first round of the playoffs, the Canadiens disposed of the Lightning in four games. The Lightning goalie for that series was Anders Lindback because Ben Bishop was injured. Dude made one good save the entire series. Well, much has changed since then and as we approach this year’s post-season, Tampa is still intent on sending these Canadiens a message. These two have met twice this season. The first game was way back on October 13, near the beginning of the season when that playoff sweep was still fresh and stinging in the minds of the Bolts. They came out and outshot the Habs 41-17 while burying them, 7-1. The next game in Tampa was closer on the scoreboard, a 4-2 Bolts win but Tampa outshot Montreal 36-22, so it really wasn’t that much closer in terms of domination. Well, these two will meet three more times this season before the post-season beginning with this one. The Bolts trail the Canadiens by two points in the standings so a win here pulls them even for first overall in the East. A win here by the Bolts also keeps the “domination” message alive.
The Habs defeat teams that are better than they are because of Carey Price. Of course, Price can steal a game at any time, including this one but Montreal is not in great form right now and they also return home from a tough, four-game, West Coast trip. The Habs lost the first three games of said trip in San Jose, Anaheim and Los Angeles before defeating the Coyotes in the final leg. In two of the four games against L.A. and San Jose, Montreal managed 18 and 20 shots on net respectively. They scored a total of six goals in those four games. They’ll now play a Bolts team that is in a better spot and that has scored three goals or more in eight straight and in 10 of their past 11 games. In those 11 games, the Lightning scored four or more seven times. Tampa is indeed a true power while the jury is still out on the Habs. The best part about backing the Bolts here is that Anders Lindback is the backup goalie in Buffalo.
Our Pick
Tampa Bay +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
Dallas @ PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA -½ +140 over Dallas
Regulation only. We’re learning that playing regulation at this time of year is much riskier because every point is so crucial. Teams that are fighting for the playoffs or for positioning want at least that one point before going for two. However, that applies much less to teams that are “out of it”. Both the Flyers and Stars are hanging by a thread and they know it. They’ll be no playing for a point in this one. The Stars got Tyler Seguin back in their last game and he immediately contributed with two goals in a loss at Tampa Bay. That’s nice but that’s not a reason to back the Stars here. The market has seen Dallas taking money all day and now we’re going to go against that public money. Dallas was not winning with Seguin before he was injured. They are a sloppy team that gives up way too many scoring chances and that’s when they show up. When they have a bad game or a less intensified showing, they are so easy to beat. Furthermore, Kari Lehtonen looks absolutely brutal lately. That guy is fighting every puck that comes his way. We cannot stress enough how shaky Lehtonen has looked for the past three weeks. Lehtonen has posted save percentages of .786, .826, .806 and .824 in four of his past five games.
Steve Mason almost always gives the Flyers a chance to win, especially at home. Philadelphia has been tough as shoe leather at home too. In fact, Philly’s last five home games at home occurred against Nashville, Washington, the Rangers, Calgary and St. Louis. They picked up nine out of a possible 10 points against that extremely tough group with only loss over that span occurring against Calgary in OT. They outshot the Flames in that game. 36-27. Philly is ready to explode with some goals too. They are getting a lot more chances these days from several different sources. You can now add the names of Ryan White and Michael Raffl to the growing list of Flyers that are contributing. The Courtier/Read/Simmons line has been playing outstanding hockey for a month as well. The bottom line is that the Flyers win a lot more games at home than they lose and this opponent is much softer than the previous five. The reward is worth the risk in a game the Flyers have a damn good shot of exploding in.
Our Pick
PHILADELPHIA -½ +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)
N.Y. Rangers @ N.Y. ISLANDERS
N.Y. Rangers +101 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. These two have met four times this year and the Islanders have won three of those while outscoring the Rangers 19-10. That’s somewhat absurd but it is also indicative of the season the Islanders are having. Indeed the Islanders are having a great year but none of it makes sense. The Isles have some goal scorers and John Tavares is truly among the best but of all the “power” teams in the NHL, the Islanders are the most flawed and it’s not even close. The Islanders have compiled 43 wins through smoke and mirrors. Of the 30 teams in the league, the Isles rank 23rd in goals against and 29th on the penalty kill. That penalty killing unit puts them on par with teams like the Maple Leafs, Arizona, Florida and Colorado. The seven teams that have allowed more goals than the Islanders are Edmonton, Arizona, Dallas, Columbus, Philadelphia, Buffalo and Toronto. What those seven teams have in common is that none of them are going to the playoffs. Only three teams, Arizona, Dallas and Edmonton have a worse Team Opponent Shooting Percentage (measures the rate at which the opposing team scores goals as a percentage of shots on goals) than the Islanders. The Islanders are not a true power at all. They have erratic goaltending, weak defense and while Tavares is one of the favorites to win the Hart Trophy, the real Hart Trophy winner on this team is luck and their fourth line. Without the great play of that fourth line, the Islanders might be gasping for air right now, as opposed to being in a comfortable playoff position. This is a team to attack the rest of the way and into the playoffs and we’ll get right to it in this one.
The Rangers are anything but smoke and mirrors. The Rangers rank third in the league in goals against and 9th in penalty killing, which are both 20 positions higher than the Islanders. They have been the league’s hottest team for weeks and even when they lose it’s only because of running into a hot goaltender. The Rangers RARELY get outplayed. Offensively, The Rags are just as good, if not better than the Islanders too. The Rangers have better balanced scoring and a huge edge in goals differential (+42 to +19). In two and three goals games, a truer measure of strength than one goal games, the Rangers are 22-11 while the Islanders are 18-16. You can break this one down a million times and you’ll come up with the same equation every time. That equation says that the Rangers are so superior to the Islanders that it’s not even comparable. Once again, wins and losses dictate the betting line and that’s a market flaw that we’ll continue to go after. Rangers are a dog here but in terms of value, the Rangers win expectation is so much higher than the Islanders, which makes them an instant play in this one.
Our Pick
N.Y. Rangers +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)
Tampa Bay @ MONTREAL
Tampa Bay +104 over MONTREAL
OT included. In last season’s first round of the playoffs, the Canadiens disposed of the Lightning in four games. The Lightning goalie for that series was Anders Lindback because Ben Bishop was injured. Dude made one good save the entire series. Well, much has changed since then and as we approach this year’s post-season, Tampa is still intent on sending these Canadiens a message. These two have met twice this season. The first game was way back on October 13, near the beginning of the season when that playoff sweep was still fresh and stinging in the minds of the Bolts. They came out and outshot the Habs 41-17 while burying them, 7-1. The next game in Tampa was closer on the scoreboard, a 4-2 Bolts win but Tampa outshot Montreal 36-22, so it really wasn’t that much closer in terms of domination. Well, these two will meet three more times this season before the post-season beginning with this one. The Bolts trail the Canadiens by two points in the standings so a win here pulls them even for first overall in the East. A win here by the Bolts also keeps the “domination” message alive.
The Habs defeat teams that are better than they are because of Carey Price. Of course, Price can steal a game at any time, including this one but Montreal is not in great form right now and they also return home from a tough, four-game, West Coast trip. The Habs lost the first three games of said trip in San Jose, Anaheim and Los Angeles before defeating the Coyotes in the final leg. In two of the four games against L.A. and San Jose, Montreal managed 18 and 20 shots on net respectively. They scored a total of six goals in those four games. They’ll now play a Bolts team that is in a better spot and that has scored three goals or more in eight straight and in 10 of their past 11 games. In those 11 games, the Lightning scored four or more seven times. Tampa is indeed a true power while the jury is still out on the Habs. The best part about backing the Bolts here is that Anders Lindback is the backup goalie in Buffalo.
Our Pick
Tampa Bay +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
Welcome to Ecks & Bacon for Tuesday, March 10, 2015 (aka Chalk/Benjamin Lee Eckstein)
NY Isle/NY Rabers OVER 5-
Valparaiso -3-
It's ON!!! ON the ICE baby! The battle for New York, well at least the City and the Island for now. The battle for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division. Which New York will we turn to??? How about neither. We're gonna rock the over/under total, which is 5.5 goals, and go over. The Islanders are one of only four teams in the NHL with over 200 goals, so they can fill up the net. They have also given up the 8th most goals against at 189. The Rangers are sitting on 198 goals, and have allowed only 155, which is 3rd in the league. However, the last two times these rivals played, it was a 6-5 GOAL FEST on the Island, won by the NYR. We might not see 11 goals again, but the two NYs have plenty of firepower, so gimme half a Benjamin on the over. We were at the 1979 Isles/Rangers playoff series, covering for CBS Sports magazine, and while it was loud out in Nassau, the Garden was deafening, and literally SHAKING. Seriously, the building was SHAKING!!!
Oh yeah, also gonna drop half a Benj on Valpo -2 points (if you see a -2.5, buy the hook and drop back down to -2) over Wisky-Green Bay in the Horizon title tilt. It's ON Valpo's HOME COURT! Actually, the number has jumped up, and Valpo is now -3.5, but we still like the Crusaders.
NY Isle/NY Rabers OVER 5-
Valparaiso -3-
It's ON!!! ON the ICE baby! The battle for New York, well at least the City and the Island for now. The battle for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division. Which New York will we turn to??? How about neither. We're gonna rock the over/under total, which is 5.5 goals, and go over. The Islanders are one of only four teams in the NHL with over 200 goals, so they can fill up the net. They have also given up the 8th most goals against at 189. The Rangers are sitting on 198 goals, and have allowed only 155, which is 3rd in the league. However, the last two times these rivals played, it was a 6-5 GOAL FEST on the Island, won by the NYR. We might not see 11 goals again, but the two NYs have plenty of firepower, so gimme half a Benjamin on the over. We were at the 1979 Isles/Rangers playoff series, covering for CBS Sports magazine, and while it was loud out in Nassau, the Garden was deafening, and literally SHAKING. Seriously, the building was SHAKING!!!
Oh yeah, also gonna drop half a Benj on Valpo -2 points (if you see a -2.5, buy the hook and drop back down to -2) over Wisky-Green Bay in the Horizon title tilt. It's ON Valpo's HOME COURT! Actually, the number has jumped up, and Valpo is now -3.5, but we still like the Crusaders.
