Mike Hook | CBB Sides Tue, 02/09/10 - 8:00 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 546 Bradley 1.5 (-110) Bodog vs 545 Illinois St.
Analysis: This selection of BRADLEY +1.5 has 3 angles that i love backing. First and foremost is a strong revenge angle. These 2 teams faced off less than 2 weeks ago in Illinois St, and Illinois St. laid a beating on this Bradley team. Illinois St. was favored by 8.5 points in that game, so please realize that when noticing that todays game open up at a PK. Obviously one of these past 2 games was a mistake by oddsmakers, as you normally don't see an 8.5 swing just because of the change in venue. Even crazier is how strong this opening line was based on how BOTH of these teams played in that last contest. Besides the revenge angle, i love the value we are getting tonight with relation to my personal power rankings for both of these teams. I have Bradley as a top 100 team when playing at home, while Illinois St. is only a top 150 team while playing on the road. According to my numbers, Bradley has played a schedule that is EASILY twice as difficult as that of what Illinois St. has faced. Lastly, i feel Bradley is in better form right now. I have watched this team closely since their near upset against league power Northern Iowa. Outside of their egg against their opponent today, i like how Bradley has played of late. The same can't be said for Illinois St, as they've lost 3 of their past 5 games, and their only league win on the road this year is against Evansville, a team Bradley just blasted.
So clearly, 3 strong angles that support this play tonight, and that makes me very excited. I realize Bradley hasn't always played well at home, but i highly suspect today will be different. Reason #1 is the BLACKOUT that will take place tonight at Carver arena. This game is being hyped locally as a huge game. With the full support of the crowd tonight and the "new" jerseys in place, i expect Bradley to be ready to go tonight. Now i realize i've talked recently about how "blackouts" and other promotions often put more pressure on a team. I don't think this will be the case tonight, simply because Bradley has had their eyes set on this game ever since they were blo�wn out 11 days ago. Illinois St. simply outhustled Bradley in every sense of the word. In front of their home fans tonight, i believe all the hustle points will be in favor of Bradley. I see absolutely no way that Illinois St. doubles the rebounding numbers like they nearly did in the last meeting. I also expect Bradley to shoot far better from the field than they did the last time in route to a 28% shooting performance. One must also realize how much Illinois St. has struggled to play in Carver Arena. Illnois St. hasn't won there since 2002, a span of 7 consecutive games. That's the longest stretch of winless road games in conference play for Illinois St. In fact, Illinois St. has such a hard time with playing in Carver Arena that they actually changed their schedule of how they approach this specific game. In reality, their personal struggles in Carver Arena are already in the heads of Illinois St, as they are preparing differently for this specific game. I don't think it's going to help, because this team struggles to win on the road as it is. As mentioned earlier, their only road league win has come against Evansville, which isn't a big surprise really.
Bradley will be ready to go tonight. They are the better team, in better form, and on revenge. They will look to set the tone early with their hustle and their defense. This Bradley team has held 7 of their past 8 opponents to 66 points or fewer. Earlier in the season when they were struggling, it was their defense that was lacking. They've since fixed those problems, and a big reason why is effort. That effort will simply not go away tonight, not in front of a crowd that is going to be rockin thanks to the "blackout" promotion.
This revenge angle needs to be talked about just a bit more. Recently, Bradley has revenged losses to both Missouri St. and Southern Illinois. They lost earlier this season by 19 and 5 points respectively against those two opponents. How did they bounce back you might ask? They responded on the revenge angle with a 2 point win on the road at Southern Illinois and a dominant 18 point home win against Missouri St. Clearly this Bradley team relishes the role of REVENGE. Today, they will relish it that much more, as they win this game by 5 points or more. Quite frankly, the wrong team is favored here. Illinois St. might have the gaudier record, but against whom? I really like Bradley tonight, and i'm backing them at +1.5 for my DOUBLE STAR play for today! Bradley +1.5 for 2 units tonight!