StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
NBA CHICAGO at PHOENIX
Play On - Any team (CHICAGO) average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games
32-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.2% 21.0 units )
NBA INDIANA at ATLANTA
Play On - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) off a home win, second half of the season
120-71 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.8% 47.3 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.1 units )
NBA CHICAGO at PHOENIX
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in February games
49-20 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.0% 27.0 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% -2.2 units )
NBA CHICAGO at PHOENIX
Play On - Any team (CHICAGO) average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games
32-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.2% 21.0 units )
NBA INDIANA at ATLANTA
Play On - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) off a home win, second half of the season
120-71 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.8% 47.3 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.1 units )
NBA CHICAGO at PHOENIX
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in February games
49-20 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.0% 27.0 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% -2.2 units )
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
CBB WISCONSIN at ILLINOIS
Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ILLINOIS) in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG), after a combined score of 155 points or more
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% 32.9 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )
CBB TEXAS at TCU
Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (TCU) cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team -having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
121-19 over the last 5 seasons. ( 86.4% 60.2 units )
7-5 this year. ( 58.3% -7.3 units )
CBB ST PETERS at MANHATTAN
Play On - A home team vs. the 1rst half line (MANHATTAN) after allowing 80 points or more in a loss to a conference rival, in February games
57-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.5% 29.5 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )
CBB WISCONSIN at ILLINOIS
Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ILLINOIS) in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG), after a combined score of 155 points or more
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% 32.9 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )
CBB TEXAS at TCU
Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (TCU) cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team -having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
121-19 over the last 5 seasons. ( 86.4% 60.2 units )
7-5 this year. ( 58.3% -7.3 units )
CBB ST PETERS at MANHATTAN
Play On - A home team vs. the 1rst half line (MANHATTAN) after allowing 80 points or more in a loss to a conference rival, in February games
57-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.5% 29.5 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )
DAVID BANKS
NBA
Chicago Bulls vs. Phoenix Suns
It will certainly be a contrast in styles in a non-conference affair on NBA TV Tuesday night when the surprising, fast-paced Phoenix Suns (29-18, 32.14.1 ATS) host the plodding, defensive minded Chicago Bulls (23-23, 21-25 ATS) from US Airways Center at 9:05 ET. Not much was expected from the Suns this season after finishing with the worst record in the Western Conference last year, yet they are now second in the Pacific Division at 3 games behind the Los Angeles Clippers. The Bulls are in second place in the Central Division but 13 games behind the Indiana Pacers.
The fact that the Suns have been able to turn things around while playing in the tougher Western Conference is rather remarkable as they are currently the sixth seed in the conference, although they are far from assured of anything right now as they are still just 2 games away from being out of the playoffs, which is their lead over ninth seeded Dallas. Still, their 29 wins this season has already surpassed their 25 wins from all of last year, so anything from here on out is gravy. And the Suns have gone back to their hectic style they used to play under former coach Mike D'Antoni when Steve Nash was in his prime as they are sixth in the NBA in scoring at 104.9 points per game but 16th in points against at 101.3 per contest. Goran Dragic is now the point guard in the offense and he leads the team in both scoring (20.0 points per game) and assists (6.1). The Suns have won seven of their last eight games, and this stretch includes two wins over the team with the best record and best defense in the NBA in the Pacers while scoring 124 points against them here in the desert and 102 points in Indianapolis.
That does not bode well for the Bulls here as they are a team that relies on defense and lack the firepower to keep pace with the more potent offenses of the Western Conference. The Bulls are second to the Pacers in points against at just 92.7 per game and third in filed goal percentage allowed at 43.3 percent, but they have had their difficulties in non-conference game vs. teams that can solve their defense, mainly because their offense ranks second to last among the 30 NBA teams in scoring averaging 92.5 points and 28th in field goal percentage at 42.5 percent. Chicago is also 28th in pace rating, but its has been unable to slow down most of its non-conference opponents this year and there is no reason to expect that to change vs. a Phoenix team ranked sixth in pace rating, especially with this game played in Arizona where the Suns are averaging a potent 108.4 points. This is also the second of a back-to-back for the Bulls after playing in Sacramento on Monday so fatigue may become an issue.
The Suns are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams with losing road records and 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. the Western Conference.
PICK: PHOENIX -7
NBA
Chicago Bulls vs. Phoenix Suns
It will certainly be a contrast in styles in a non-conference affair on NBA TV Tuesday night when the surprising, fast-paced Phoenix Suns (29-18, 32.14.1 ATS) host the plodding, defensive minded Chicago Bulls (23-23, 21-25 ATS) from US Airways Center at 9:05 ET. Not much was expected from the Suns this season after finishing with the worst record in the Western Conference last year, yet they are now second in the Pacific Division at 3 games behind the Los Angeles Clippers. The Bulls are in second place in the Central Division but 13 games behind the Indiana Pacers.
The fact that the Suns have been able to turn things around while playing in the tougher Western Conference is rather remarkable as they are currently the sixth seed in the conference, although they are far from assured of anything right now as they are still just 2 games away from being out of the playoffs, which is their lead over ninth seeded Dallas. Still, their 29 wins this season has already surpassed their 25 wins from all of last year, so anything from here on out is gravy. And the Suns have gone back to their hectic style they used to play under former coach Mike D'Antoni when Steve Nash was in his prime as they are sixth in the NBA in scoring at 104.9 points per game but 16th in points against at 101.3 per contest. Goran Dragic is now the point guard in the offense and he leads the team in both scoring (20.0 points per game) and assists (6.1). The Suns have won seven of their last eight games, and this stretch includes two wins over the team with the best record and best defense in the NBA in the Pacers while scoring 124 points against them here in the desert and 102 points in Indianapolis.
That does not bode well for the Bulls here as they are a team that relies on defense and lack the firepower to keep pace with the more potent offenses of the Western Conference. The Bulls are second to the Pacers in points against at just 92.7 per game and third in filed goal percentage allowed at 43.3 percent, but they have had their difficulties in non-conference game vs. teams that can solve their defense, mainly because their offense ranks second to last among the 30 NBA teams in scoring averaging 92.5 points and 28th in field goal percentage at 42.5 percent. Chicago is also 28th in pace rating, but its has been unable to slow down most of its non-conference opponents this year and there is no reason to expect that to change vs. a Phoenix team ranked sixth in pace rating, especially with this game played in Arizona where the Suns are averaging a potent 108.4 points. This is also the second of a back-to-back for the Bulls after playing in Sacramento on Monday so fatigue may become an issue.
The Suns are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams with losing road records and 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. the Western Conference.
PICK: PHOENIX -7
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/4/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 2/4/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Tuesday's Notebook
•Kentucky won 11 of last 13 games with Ole Miss; Rebels lost last five visits here, by 10-40-4-10-15 points, but they're 5-1 with Henderson in lineup, with only loss by 16 at Tennessee. Ole Miss is 2-2 on SEC road, with other loss by 4 at Mississippi State. Kentucky won four of its last five games, is 3-1 as SEC home favorite, winning at Rupp by 22-8-17-25 points. SEC double digit home favorites are 9-4 versus spread.
•Iowa (+6) won 84-74 at Ohio State Jan 12, ending 8-game series losing skid; Buckeyes won last four visits here by 2-8-5-29 points. OSU lost five of last seven games overall, getting out of Wisconsin with 59-58 win in last game. Big Dozen home favorites of 7 or less points are 5-7 versus spread. Iowa is 2-2 as home favorite, winning home games by 10-26-21, with an overtime loss to Michigan State in last home game.
•James Madison won five of last six games with Towson, but are 3-7 in last ten visits here, losing by 26 LY. Dukes lost five of last seven games, are 2-2 as CAA road dogs, losing away games by 14-22 points, winning at UNCW/Northeastern. Towson is 5-2 in CAA, 1-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-18-2 points, with loss to Northeastern. CAA home favorites are 9-21 against the spread.
•Providence (+4) scored last five points in second OT to nip St John's by point 84-83 in first meeting Jan 16, its fourth win in last six series tilts. Friars won six of last seven games, are 2-2 as home favorites, winning at home by 18-13-9-9 points, with loss to Seton Hall. St John's won three of its last four games; its last three losses are all by 3 or less points. Big East home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-6 versus spread.
•Kansas (-10) beat Baylor 78-68 Jan 20, outscoring Bears 26-9 on foul line with Baylor making 13-27 from arc; Jayhawks are 13-3 in last 16 versus Baylor- their 81-58 loss here LY was first in last six visits. Baylor was on 1-6 skid before upsetting Oklahoma State in Stillwater last game; Bears lost last three home games by 2-14-2 points. Big X home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-3-1 versus spread. Kansas is 2-1 as a Big X road favorite.
•Maryland lost its last four visits to Chapel Hill by 17-11-24-10 points; this is Terrapins' last visit here before bolting to Big Dozen. Terps are 0-3 as an ACC underdog this year, losing those games by 20-24-4 points. ACC home favorites of 7+ points are 13-8 versus spread. Tar Heels won/covered last three games, winning by 19-13-14 points; they're 2-2 as favorites at home- all four of their ACC wins are by 11+ points.
•Clemson won its last seven games with Georgia Tech, winning last eight in Littlejohn, with last two by total of five points. This is first game at home in 17 days for Tigers, who are 1-1 as home favorites, winning by 13-8 points with loss to Florida State. ACC home favorites of 7+ points are 13-8 versus spread. Tech covered last three road games, winning at Boston College and Wake Forest, losing by hoop in overtime at NC State.
•Drake is 9-1 in last ten games with Southern Illinois, winning 57-54 (+2) in Carbondale Jan 22, when Salukis were 4-18 on arc, 12-28 on foul line. Bulldogs lost seven of last nine games, losing three of last four at home; they're 1-3 in last four games when favored. MVC home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-4-1 versus spread. Salukis won last two games after its 2-6 start in Valley- they're 3-1-1 in last five games as an underdog.
•Butler's first Big East win after 0-5 start was 69-57 OT home win (even) versus Marquette Jan 18, after Bulldogs trailed by 12 in second half. Butler is 1-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 11-28-9 points, with a win at Seton Hall. Marquette is 1-2 as home favorite, winning at home by 10-1-11 points, with only loss to Villanova in OT. Big East home favorites of more than 4 points are 13-10 versus spread.
•Missouri is only 4-4 in SEC, but none of its four losses was by more than six points; they're 2-2 on SEC road, 1-2 as dog, losing away games by 3 at Vanderbilt, 6 at LSU. Home team won both Florida-Missouri games LY; Tigers lost 83-52 in this gym. Florida is 8-0 in SEC, 3-1 as home favorite, winning by 16-22-26-33 points in Swamp. SEC double digit home favorites are 9-4 versus spread.
•Wisconsin won its last six games with Illinois, waxing Illini 95-70 (-10) in first meeting Jan 8, making 63.2% of 2-point shots, turning ball over only four times. Badgers won last two visits here, by 4-6, but they are 1-5 in last six games overall, after starting year 16-0. Illini lost its last seven games, losing last three home games by 8-16-7 points. Big Dozen home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-5 versus spread.
•Iona won/covered its last four games; they're 4-3 as home favorites, 3-0 in last three home games, winning by 14-22-12 points. Gaels are making 42.6% of 3's, 53.9% of 2's in league play. Monmouth covered four of last five games; they're 5-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 9-20-9-6-2 points, with win at Niagara. MAAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-7 against the spread.
•Manhattan won last six games with St Peter's, winning last two here by 4-8 points; Jaspers beat Peacocks 74-62 (-9) in first meeting Jan 2, with St Peter's shooting 29.8% in foul fest with 77 free throws. MAAC home favorites of 9+ points are 9-6 versus spread. Peacocks are 2-3-1 as dogs on road, with SU wins at Rider/Fairfield. Jaspers are 3-3 as home favorites, with three home wins by 16+ points.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- OHIO ST is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a home favorite since 1997.
The average score was OHIO ST 68.2, OPPONENT 65.3.
-- DRAKE is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) in home games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DRAKE 74.1, OPPONENT 75.5.
-- KANSAS is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) after a game where they were called for 10+ more fouls than opponent since 1997.
The average score was KANSAS 38.9, OPPONENT 29.3.
-- WISCONSIN is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WISCONSIN 25.6, OPPONENT 25.9.
-- JOHN CALIPARI is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) after playing 2 consecutive road games as the coach of KENTUCKY.
The average score was CALIPARI 39.8, OPPONENT 27.8.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- OLE MISS is 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was OLE MISS 72.5, OPPONENT 72.8.
-- HOLY CROSS is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was HOLY CROSS 64.7, OPPONENT 61.6.
-- TEXAS is 14-2 against the 1rst half line (+11.8 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was TEXAS 38.2, OPPONENT 31.6.
-- ILLINOIS is 20-3 UNDER (+16.7 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ILLINOIS 27.9, OPPONENT 30.9.
-- JEFF BZDELIK is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games as the coach of WAKE FOREST.
The average score was BZDELIK 60.2, OPPONENT 76.6.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (MARQUETTE) - good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42%, playing only their 3rd game in a week, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%).
(111-21 since 1997.) (84.1%, +63.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -227.9
The average score in these games was: Team 72.2, Opponent 64.3 (Average point differential = +7.9)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3, -2.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-6, +9.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (37-8, +18.3 units).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (S ILLINOIS) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(70-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.0%, +37.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (40-62 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 67.7, Opponent 70.2 (Average point differential = -2.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 35 (35.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (15-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-13).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (158-152).
-- Play On - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (N ILLINOIS) - terrible shooting team (<=40%) against an poor defensive team (45-47.5%) after 15+ games, cold shooting team - 3 straight games making <=40% of their shots.
(25-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.8, Opponent 27.7 (Average first half point differential = +3.1)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (49-33).
-- Play On - Home underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (BAYLOR) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points, off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record.
(40-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.8, Opponent 32.2 (Average first half point differential = +0.6)
The situation's record this season is: (7-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (81-51).
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Tuesday's Match-ups
#509 MISSISSIPPI @ #510 KENTUCKY
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Kentucky -12.5, Total: N/A) - The postseason pecking order might become a bit more clear after No. 14 Kentucky hosts Mississippi in a key SEC matchup Tuesday. The teams are tied for second in the conference, which doesn't figure to get many at-large invitations to the NCAA Tournament this year, so head-to-head matchups like this one could go a long way toward shaping the bubble. The Wildcats have dominated the series, winning 100 of 113 meetings and 50 of 52 at home, where they've won 21 straight overall and are 80-2 under coach John Calipari.
The youthful Wildcats - they started five freshmen in an 84-79 victory at Missouri on Saturday - are beginning to live up their potential by showing more resolve late in close games. "The team as a whole kind of figured it out as the season went on that every team brought the energy every game and brought everything they had," Kentucky freshman Marcus Lee told reporters. "They were dying after the game because they had brought everything. We realized we had to come out with our best energy, knowing that our energy is way higher than theirs if we give as hard as we can." The Rebels have won five of their last six, but struggled a bit on the road in conference play with losses at Mississippi State and Tennessee and a close call at last-place South Carolina.
•ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (15-6 SU, 6-9-2 ATS, 6-2 SEC): The Rebels' postseason resume is hurt by home losses to mid-majors Mercer and Dayton, so they desperately need a quality win and a victory at Rupp Arena would fit the bill. Unruly sharp-shooter Marshall Henderson (19.2 points) will command plenty of attention from the Wildcats wherever he is on the floor - he ranks second in the nation with 4.28 3-pointers per game - but backcourt mate Jarvis Summers (17.8 points) has blossomed into a dangerous second option. The Rebels lack size in the post as both their starting frontcourt players are listed at 6-9, so they might have trouble with Kentucky's big men.
•ABOUT KENTUCKY (16-5 SU, 9-8-2 ATS, 6-2 SEC): It's no wonder the Wildcats went through some growing pains with their freshman-heavy roster, but the youngsters are growing up and freshmen combined for 77 of Kentucky's 84 points against Missouri. Four of those freshmen average double-digit scoring with power forward Julius Randle (16.1 points, 10.1 rebounds) leading the way. James Young (14.9 points) has been the team's leading scorer in SEC play at 16.8 points per game, and he has hit 16 3-pointers over the past five games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kentucky has allowed two straight opponents to shoot better than 50 percent from the field after allowing 50 percent or better just once in its first 19 contests.... Henderson has made at least one 3-pointer in a school-record 54 consecutive games.... Young's 51 3-pointers are the fourth-most by a freshman in Kentucky history behind Brandon Knight (87), Rex Chapman (68) and Doron Lamb (68).... The Wildcats are 5-15 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last two seasons.... The Rebels are 12-1 against the spread as a road underdog of 10 or more points since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OLE MISS covered the spread 513 times, while KENTUCKY covered the spread 487 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KENTUCKY won the game straight up 801 times, while OLE MISS won 172 times. In 1000 simulated games, OLE MISS covered the first half line 590 times, while KENTUCKY covered the first half line 410 times. *EDGE against first half line =OLE MISS.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KENTUCKY is 11-10 against the spread versus OLE MISS since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 17-4 straight up against OLE MISS since 1997.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OLE MISS is 11-10 versus the first half line when playing against KENTUCKY since 1997.
--9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Rebels are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Rebels are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Kentucky.
--Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 4-1 in Rebels last 5 road games.
--Over is 4-1 in Rebels last 5 Tuesday games.
--Over is 9-3 in Rebels L12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--UK is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Under is 9-3-1 in UK last 13 home games.
--Under is 7-1 in UK L8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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#513 OHIO ST @ #514 IOWA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Iowa -5.5, Total: N/A) - Ohio State is trying to prove that a rough end to January is not what the team will look like going forward. Earning a second straight road victory against a ranked opponent when the No. 25 Buckeyes visit 13th-ranked Iowa on Tuesday would go a long way to ease any concerns. The Hawkeyes survived a scare at Illinois on Saturday and are comfortably in third place in the Big Ten with a 6-3 mark that includes an 84-74 triumph at Ohio State from Jan. 12.
That loss to Iowa was the second in a string of four straight and five of six by the Buckeyes, who are hoping a 59-58 victory at No. 24 Wisconsin on Saturday is what the team needs to turn its season back in a positive direction. “We’ll enjoy this for half a day and then we have another tough one on Tuesday,” guard Aaron Craft told the Columbus Dispatch. “There’s not too much over-thinking going on. It’s find a way to be better than Iowa. That’s our only thought.” That is a tough assignment against a Hawkeyes team averaging 80.6 points in its last seven games.
•ABOUT OHIO STATE (17-5 SU, 10-11-0 ATS, 4-5 Big Ten): The Buckeyes will need all the defense they can muster to slow Iowa and may have found it against Wisconsin when they held the Badgers without a field goal over the final 6:43. “We had very good activity,” coach Thad Matta told the Dispatch of the defense. “I thought guys were reading things and we were pressuring the ball where we needed it.” Ohio State gave up 47 second-half points in the Jan. 12 meeting with Iowa and did not help itself by turning the ball over 17 times. LaQuinton Ross was a bright spot with 22 points in that loss and has reached double figures in six straight.
•ABOUT IOWA (17-5 SU, 13-7-0 ATS, 6-3 Big Ten): Roy Devyn Marble scored 22 points and Aaron White put up 19 on 8-of-12 shooting in the win over Ohio State and the two continue to provide an effective outside-inside combination. Marble scored all 17 of his points in the second half of Saturday’s 81-74 victory at Illinois while White chipped in 14 and six rebounds. The Hawkeyes are staring at a tough stretch of the schedule with Ohio State and Michigan at home before heading out on the road for two, but are well-equipped to handle the rest of their Big Ten slate if reserves like center Gabriel Olaseni (15 points and 12 rebounds on Saturday) continue to produce.
•PREGAME NOTES: Ohio State is 2-2 against ranked opponents this season, with both losses coming in Big Ten games in January.... Iowa is third in the country in rebounding at 43.5 per game and held a 40-31 advantage on the glass in the first meeting.... Ross is 5-of-9 from 3-point range and 16-of-19 from the free-throw line in the last three games.... The Hawkeyes are 18-4 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Buckeyes are 19-4 versus the spread revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a home favorite since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the spread 542 times, while OHIO ST covered the spread 458 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA won the game straight up 686 times, while OHIO ST won 288 times. In 1000 simulated games, OHIO ST covered the first half line 480 times, while IOWA covered the first half line 476 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA is 16-15 against the spread versus OHIO ST since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 18-13 straight up against IOWA since 1997.
--11 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 17-14 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Buckeyes are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Iowa.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OSU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten.
--OSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games.
--Under is 6-2 in OSU last 8 road games.
--IOWA is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 vs. Big Ten.
--IOWA is 37-15 ATS in their last 52 home games.
--IOWA is 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
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#519 KANSAS @ #520 BAYLOR
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Kansas -3.5, Total: N/A) - After suffering its first conference loss of the season at Texas, No. 9 Kansas wraps up a two-game road swing against Baylor on Tuesday. Jayhawks starting point guard Naadir Tharpe was benched for the final 9:42 against Texas and leading scorer Andrew Wiggins was held to seven points on 2-of-12 shooting in an overall team effort that left guard Wayne Selden frustrated. "We didn't play Kansas basketball," Selden told the Lawrence Journal-World. "We weren't focused."
Baylor snapped a run of five straight losses and a 1-6 start to conference play with an improbable 76-70 road victory over No. 19 Oklahoma State on Saturday. Guard Brady Heslip told the Waco Tribune that the Bears understood they had a job to do in setting things right, no matter the opponent or venue. "Wherever we were going to go," he said, "we had to get a win."
•ABOUT KANSAS (16-5 SU, 10-10-1 ATS, 7-1 Big 12): Wiggins' freshman season, an expected one-and-done with an eye on being a lottery pick in the NBA draft, has been productive enough to place his 16 points per game among the Big 12's top 10 scorers, but he's also suffered through some lulls of late. The seven-point showing against Texas was Wiggins' third single-digit output in Kansas' last eight games, including a three-point clunker against the Cowboys on Jan. 18. Tharpe has averaged only 5.3 points in his last four games after posting 20 or more in back-to-backs against Iowa State and Oklahoma State.
•ABOUT BAYLOR (14-7 SU, 5-9-1 ATS, 2-6 Big 12): The Bears snapped out of their recent funk despite being without the services of starting point guard Kenny Chery, who sat out against the Cowboys with turf toe and ankle injuries. Coach Scott Drew has classified Chery, who averages 11 points and a team-high five assists, as "game-to-game." Heslip paced Baylor's offense against Oklahoma State with a season-high 20 points that included six 3-pointers.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kansas leads the series 20-4, including a 78-68 victory in Lawrence on Jan. 20 led by 18 points from F Perry Ellis.... The Bears lead the Big 12 in 3-point field goal percentage and are 17th in the nation, shooting 40.1 percent from beyond the arc.... The Jayhawks are shooting 50.3 percent on the season, good for first among Big 12 teams and fourth nationally.... Baylor is 4-13 against the spread versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... Kansas is 41-22 versus the spread after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, BAYLOR covered the spread 580 times, while KANSAS covered the spread 420 times. *EDGE against the spread =BAYLOR. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS won the game straight up 519 times, while BAYLOR won 451 times. In 1000 simulated games, BAYLOR covered the first half line 541 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 421 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BAYLOR is 11-9 against the spread versus KANSAS since 1997.
--KANSAS is 17-4 straight up against BAYLOR since 1997.
--9 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--BAYLOR is 12-9 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS since 1997.
--7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Baylor.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Baylor.
--Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--KU is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Big 12.
--KU is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Under is 21-8-2 in KU last 31 road games.
--BAY is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--BAY is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
--Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 Tuesday games.
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#521 TEXAS @ #522 TCU
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Big 12 Network - Line: Texas -8.5, Total: N/A) - No. 18 Texas looks to extend its winning streak to seven games when it hits the road to face in-state rival Texas Christian on Tuesday. The Longhorns emerged unscathed from a brutal four-game gauntlet against top 25 teams, including an impressive 81-69 win over No. 9 Kansas on Saturday. "We're a good team," coach Rick Barnes said. "But it's such a fine line between winning and losing, if you start drinking the poison and think that you are there, it all gets away."
Texas Christian is currently mired in an eight-game losing skid following a 60-54 loss to Texas Tech. Things are likely to go from bad to worse for the Horned Frogs as they get set to meet three nationally ranked teams in their next four games in their search for their first win in Big 12 play. TCU has struggled mightily against Texas in recent years, losing 11 out of the last 12 meetings in the series, including seven in a row.
•ABOUT TEXAS (17-4, 10-8-0 ATS, 6-2 Big 12): Guard Isaiah Taylor has continued to impress and was named the Big 12 Conference Rookie of the Week after pouring in a game-high 23 points in the win over Kansas. Guard Javan Felix suffered a concussion in the waning moments versus the Jayhawks and will miss Tuesday's festivities. The Longhorns are ranked ninth nationally in rebounding and have won the battle of the boards in 16 of their 21 games.
•ABOUT TEXAS CHRISTIAN (9-11, 7-8-0 ATS, 0-8 Big 12): Guard Kyan Anderson tops the team in scoring (15.3) and assists (4.7), and netted 22 points in the loss to Texas Tech. Center Karviar Shepherd missed the game versus the Red Raiders after undergoing surgery on his non-shooting hand, but will likely be available against the Longhorns. Anderson is shooting 83.3 percent from the free-throw line and has made 21 of his last 23 attempts from the charity stripe.
•PREGAME NOTES: Texas has beaten two top 10 teams at home for the first time since the 2002-03 season.... The Longhorns are 13-0 when holding their opponents to under 40 percent shooting from the field.... Texas Christian's last win over Texas came on Jan. 10, 1995.... The Longhorns are 2-12 versus the spread after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.... The Horned Frogs are 0-6 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TCU covered the spread 551 times, while TEXAS covered the spread 449 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS won the game straight up 686 times, while TCU won 298 times. In 1000 simulated games, TCU covered the first half line 565 times, while TEXAS covered the first half line 388 times. *EDGE against first half line =TCU.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEXAS is 3-1 against the spread versus TCU since 1997.
--TEXAS is 4-0 straight up against TCU since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--TCU is 2-2 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 9-4 in TEX last 13 overall.
--Under is 7-2 in TEX last 9 Tue. games.
--Over is 12-4 in TEX last 16 vs. Big 12.
--TCU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--TCU is 18-43 ATS in their last 61 home games.
--TCU is 17-36 ATS in their last 53 vs. Big 12.
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#533 WAKE FOREST @ #534 DUKE
(TV: 9:00 PM ET, ESPNU - Line: Duke -18, Total: N/A) - Even though it lost last time out, No. 11 Duke continued to serve notice it is playing as well as any team in the country. The Blue Devils, who host Wake Forest on Tuesday, saw their five-game win streak halted Saturday with a two-point overtime loss at undefeated Syracuse in a matchup that lived up to its billing. “I can't ask my team to play any harder than they did; it was a great game. Both teams played with so much heart,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said.
The Blue Devils, whose rematch against the top-ranked Orange on Feb. 22 is their only remaining game against a ranked opponent, return to action hoping to extend the nation’s longest active home win streak to 29 games against the potentially shorthanded Demon Deacons. Leading scorer Codi Miller-McIntyre left with an ankle injury at the end of the first half of Saturday’s loss to Georgia Tech and is listed as questionable for Tuesday. This contest marks the start of a daunting stretch for Wake Forest, which plays four of its next five away from home.
•ABOUT WAKE FOREST (14-8 SU, 9-9-0 ATS, 4-5 ACC): Travis McKie hit all 11 of his free throws Saturday, becoming the first Demon Deacon to make at least that many free throws without a miss since 2005. The effort helped Wake Forest go 27-of-33 from the line, continuing its ability to get to the stripe (ACC-high 593 attempts) while also bucking its season-long woes in converting free throws (league-worst 64.8 percent). The Demon Deacons, who are 11th in the country in defending 3-pointers (28.5 percent), allowed the Yellow Jackets to hit 46.2 percent from deep.
•ABOUT DUKE (17-5 SU, 14-8-0 ATS, 6-3 ACC): The Blue Devils shot 15-of-36 beyond the arc Saturday, with each total ranking as the ninth-highest single-game mark in school history. Duke’s long-range effort bumped up its season average to 41.4 percent, which would rank third on the school’s all-time single-season list behind the 1991-92 NCAA Championship team (43.4 percent) and the 1982-83 squad (42.6). Jabari Parker and Syracuse’s Tyler Ennis were named ACC Co-Rookies of the Week on Monday, marking the sixth time Parker has at least shared the award.
•PREGAME NOTES: Duke holds a 162-77 all-time lead in the series and has won seven straight meetings in the ACC’s oldest rivalry.... Wake Forest G Coron Williams has committed only four turnovers in 540 minutes this season, none during league play.... The Blue Devils’ Rasheed Sulaimon (47.9 percent), Andre Dawkins (47.2) and Rodney Hood (44.7) rank first, second and third, respectively, in the conference in 3-point percentage.... Wake Forest is 1-8 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.... Duke is 7-0 against the spread in home games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WAKE FOREST covered the spread 509 times, while DUKE covered the spread 461 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE won the game straight up 889 times, while WAKE FOREST won 90 times. In 1000 simulated games, WAKE FOREST covered the first half line 586 times, while DUKE covered the first half line 374 times. *EDGE against first half line =WAKE FOREST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DUKE is 20-11 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST since 1997.
--DUKE is 26-5 straight up against WAKE FOREST since 1997.
--16 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--DUKE is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against WAKE FOREST since 1997.
--17 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Demon Deacons are 2-11 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Duke.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WAKE is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.
--Under is 11-5 in WAKE last 16 overall.
--Over is 5-2 in WAKE last 7 Tuesday games.
--DUKE is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Tue. games.
--DUKE is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Under is 4-0 in DUKE last 4 Tuesday games.
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#535 MISSOURI @ #536 FLORIDA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Florida -12, Total: N/A) - Highly touted freshman Chris Walker will make his Florida debut when the No. 4 Gators try for their 14th straight victory - and 27th in a row at home - when they meet Missouri on Tuesday. The 6-10 forward from the Florida panhandle town of Bonifay was cleared following the NCAA's investigation involving Walker receiving improper benefits during his AAU career, which amounted to a 12-game suspension since he enrolled at the school Dec. 14 after becoming academically eligible. "Chris is a really, really good kid," Gators coach Donovan told the Orlando Sentinel. "... I think obviously if Chris knew some of those things were a problem, I would believe he wouldn't have done those things."
Florida turned in another masterful defensive performance with a 69-36 victory over Texas A&M on Saturday, matching the fewest points it has allowed in an SEC game since 1950. Donovan said not to expect much from Walker, who will likely come off the bench to spell seniors Patric Young or Will Yeguete. The Tigers are coming off an 84-79 home loss to No. 14 Kentucky on Saturday in which their frontcourt produced only three points while 6-5 junior guards Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson combined for 61.
•ABOUT MISSOURI (16-5 SU, 8-9-2 ATS, 4-4 SEC): Haith had nothing but praise for Brown - the SEC's leading scorer at 20.4 points per game - and Clarkson (sixth at 18.9). "They're great players," Haith told reporters after the Kentucky game. "I don't think Jabari gets credit for how good of a player he is. I think both those guys are terrific players. They left it out there on the court. They gave it everything they had." The Tigers' three-guard starting lineup also features 6-5 senior Earnest Ross (14.2 points, second on the team with 6.6 rebounds), but the trio will face its biggest challenge against a team allowing 57.4 points per game.
•ABOUT FLORIDA (19-2 SU, 9-7-1 ATS, 8-0 SEC): The Gators allowed only two opponents to score more than 62 points - then-No. 15 Memphis recorded 75 and Arkansas had 82 in an overtime game - during their win streak, and are among the national leaders in points allowed and field goal percentage defense (38.4). "It's scary because we can get a lot better defensively," sophomore guard Michael Frazier II told reporters after scoring 21 points against Texas A&M. Florida possesses a balanced attack with senior forward Casey Prather (16.2 points per game) leading five players in double figures while boasting a rotation of nine players averaging at least 10 minutes.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Gators, whose home win streak is a school record, are 19-2 for the third time in school history, with the first two seasons (2005-06, 2006-07) culminating in national championships.... Missouri is 43-3 at home under third-year coach Frank Haith, with two losses in its last four games, including a 70-64 overtime setback to Georgia on Jan. 4.... Walker must donate the $280 he received from agents to charity and perform 80 hours of community service for other benefits he received, including air fare, lodging and cellphones.... The Tigers are 15-5 against the spread versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MISSOURI covered the spread 631 times, while FLORIDA covered the spread 344 times. *EDGE against the spread =MISSOURI. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA won the game straight up 717 times, while MISSOURI won 258 times. In 1000 simulated games, MISSOURI covered the first half line 628 times, while FLORIDA covered the first half line 329 times. *EDGE against first half line =MISSOURI.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--FLORIDA is 1-1 against the spread versus MISSOURI since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 1-1 straight up against MISSOURI since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against MISSOURI since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MIZZ is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--MIZZ is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--Under is 10-4 in MIZZ last 14 overall.
--Under is 22-7-1 in FLA last 30 overall.
--Under is 16-4-1 in FLA last 21 home games.
--Under is 13-3-1 in FLA last 17 vs. Southeastern.
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#537 WISCONSIN @ #538 ILLINOIS
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Wisconsin -3, Total: N/A) - Much has changed since Wisconsin and Illinois met four weeks ago, when the Badgers were ranked No. 4 in the nation and headed toward their school record 16th consecutive victory to start the season. When the teams face off Tuesday at Illinois, Wisconsin will be trying to win just its second game since Jan. 8 as the team has tumbled to No. 24 in the coaches’ poll. The Illini, meanwhile, come in riding a seven-game losing streak, which began with the 95-70 defeat to the Badgers last month.
Wisconsin forward Frank Kaminsky is a Chicago-area native who should have plenty of friends and family making the trek to Champaign, Ill. The 7-footer has been a nice surprise for the Badgers, tripling his scoring average from 4.2 last season to 12.9 and shooting 41.1 percent from 3-point range. Illinois' most prolific 3-point shooter also is a starting forward, Jon Ekey, who’s hitting 39 percent from long range while averaging eight points.
•ABOUT WISCONSIN (17-5 SU, 12-10-0 ATS, 4-5 Big Ten): The Badgers continue to lead the nation in fewest turnovers (8.3) and even their biggest offender, point guard Traevon Jackson, is getting better at protecting the ball. Jackson hasn’t turned the ball over more than three times in a game since finishing with a season-high seven on Jan. 5 against Iowa. Jackson established a career high in the first meeting against the Illini last season, scoring 14 points in a 74-51 victory against the then-13th-ranked team in the country.
•ABOUT ILLINOIS (13-9 SU, 8-9-4 ATS, 2-7 Big Ten): Kendrick Nunn is beginning to see his minutes increase and this could be the game where the backup freshman point guard finally reaches double figures in scoring. Nunn, who last season was considered the second-best high school senior in the state of Illinois behind teammate Jabari Parker, now at Duke, played a season-high 29 minutes two weeks ago against Michigan State and 24 the following weekend against Indiana, but was limited to 13 in Saturday’s loss to Iowa. Some are calling for Nunn to get more playing time than junior starter Tracy Abrams, who’s shooting 32.8 percent from the floor during the seven-game skid.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Illini will be trying to avoid their longest losing streak in 40 years.... Illinois has either led or been tied with seven minutes left in six of its nine losses this season.... Six different players have led Wisconsin in scoring at least twice this season.... The Illini are 8-21 versus the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... The Badgers are 1-9 against the spread versus poor 3-point shooting teams - making less than 31% of their attempts over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN covered the spread 538 times, while ILLINOIS covered the spread 420 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN won the game straight up 633 times, while ILLINOIS won 341 times. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN covered the first half line 530 times, while ILLINOIS covered the first half line 470 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WISCONSIN is 20-13 against the spread versus ILLINOIS since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 19-16 straight up against ILLINOIS since 1997.
--13 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ILLINOIS is 17-17 versus the first half line when playing against WISCONSIN since 1997.
--12 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Badgers are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Badgers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Illinois.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Illinois.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Favorite is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WIS is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten.
--WIS is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Under is 7-3 in WIS last 10 Tue. games.
--ILL is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--ILL is 12-30-1 ATS in their last 43 vs. Big Ten.
--Over is 6-2 in ILL last 8 home games.
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NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 2/4/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Tuesday's Notebook
•Kentucky won 11 of last 13 games with Ole Miss; Rebels lost last five visits here, by 10-40-4-10-15 points, but they're 5-1 with Henderson in lineup, with only loss by 16 at Tennessee. Ole Miss is 2-2 on SEC road, with other loss by 4 at Mississippi State. Kentucky won four of its last five games, is 3-1 as SEC home favorite, winning at Rupp by 22-8-17-25 points. SEC double digit home favorites are 9-4 versus spread.
•Iowa (+6) won 84-74 at Ohio State Jan 12, ending 8-game series losing skid; Buckeyes won last four visits here by 2-8-5-29 points. OSU lost five of last seven games overall, getting out of Wisconsin with 59-58 win in last game. Big Dozen home favorites of 7 or less points are 5-7 versus spread. Iowa is 2-2 as home favorite, winning home games by 10-26-21, with an overtime loss to Michigan State in last home game.
•James Madison won five of last six games with Towson, but are 3-7 in last ten visits here, losing by 26 LY. Dukes lost five of last seven games, are 2-2 as CAA road dogs, losing away games by 14-22 points, winning at UNCW/Northeastern. Towson is 5-2 in CAA, 1-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-18-2 points, with loss to Northeastern. CAA home favorites are 9-21 against the spread.
•Providence (+4) scored last five points in second OT to nip St John's by point 84-83 in first meeting Jan 16, its fourth win in last six series tilts. Friars won six of last seven games, are 2-2 as home favorites, winning at home by 18-13-9-9 points, with loss to Seton Hall. St John's won three of its last four games; its last three losses are all by 3 or less points. Big East home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-6 versus spread.
•Kansas (-10) beat Baylor 78-68 Jan 20, outscoring Bears 26-9 on foul line with Baylor making 13-27 from arc; Jayhawks are 13-3 in last 16 versus Baylor- their 81-58 loss here LY was first in last six visits. Baylor was on 1-6 skid before upsetting Oklahoma State in Stillwater last game; Bears lost last three home games by 2-14-2 points. Big X home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-3-1 versus spread. Kansas is 2-1 as a Big X road favorite.
•Maryland lost its last four visits to Chapel Hill by 17-11-24-10 points; this is Terrapins' last visit here before bolting to Big Dozen. Terps are 0-3 as an ACC underdog this year, losing those games by 20-24-4 points. ACC home favorites of 7+ points are 13-8 versus spread. Tar Heels won/covered last three games, winning by 19-13-14 points; they're 2-2 as favorites at home- all four of their ACC wins are by 11+ points.
•Clemson won its last seven games with Georgia Tech, winning last eight in Littlejohn, with last two by total of five points. This is first game at home in 17 days for Tigers, who are 1-1 as home favorites, winning by 13-8 points with loss to Florida State. ACC home favorites of 7+ points are 13-8 versus spread. Tech covered last three road games, winning at Boston College and Wake Forest, losing by hoop in overtime at NC State.
•Drake is 9-1 in last ten games with Southern Illinois, winning 57-54 (+2) in Carbondale Jan 22, when Salukis were 4-18 on arc, 12-28 on foul line. Bulldogs lost seven of last nine games, losing three of last four at home; they're 1-3 in last four games when favored. MVC home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-4-1 versus spread. Salukis won last two games after its 2-6 start in Valley- they're 3-1-1 in last five games as an underdog.
•Butler's first Big East win after 0-5 start was 69-57 OT home win (even) versus Marquette Jan 18, after Bulldogs trailed by 12 in second half. Butler is 1-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 11-28-9 points, with a win at Seton Hall. Marquette is 1-2 as home favorite, winning at home by 10-1-11 points, with only loss to Villanova in OT. Big East home favorites of more than 4 points are 13-10 versus spread.
•Missouri is only 4-4 in SEC, but none of its four losses was by more than six points; they're 2-2 on SEC road, 1-2 as dog, losing away games by 3 at Vanderbilt, 6 at LSU. Home team won both Florida-Missouri games LY; Tigers lost 83-52 in this gym. Florida is 8-0 in SEC, 3-1 as home favorite, winning by 16-22-26-33 points in Swamp. SEC double digit home favorites are 9-4 versus spread.
•Wisconsin won its last six games with Illinois, waxing Illini 95-70 (-10) in first meeting Jan 8, making 63.2% of 2-point shots, turning ball over only four times. Badgers won last two visits here, by 4-6, but they are 1-5 in last six games overall, after starting year 16-0. Illini lost its last seven games, losing last three home games by 8-16-7 points. Big Dozen home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-5 versus spread.
•Iona won/covered its last four games; they're 4-3 as home favorites, 3-0 in last three home games, winning by 14-22-12 points. Gaels are making 42.6% of 3's, 53.9% of 2's in league play. Monmouth covered four of last five games; they're 5-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 9-20-9-6-2 points, with win at Niagara. MAAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-7 against the spread.
•Manhattan won last six games with St Peter's, winning last two here by 4-8 points; Jaspers beat Peacocks 74-62 (-9) in first meeting Jan 2, with St Peter's shooting 29.8% in foul fest with 77 free throws. MAAC home favorites of 9+ points are 9-6 versus spread. Peacocks are 2-3-1 as dogs on road, with SU wins at Rider/Fairfield. Jaspers are 3-3 as home favorites, with three home wins by 16+ points.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- OHIO ST is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a home favorite since 1997.
The average score was OHIO ST 68.2, OPPONENT 65.3.
-- DRAKE is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) in home games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DRAKE 74.1, OPPONENT 75.5.
-- KANSAS is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) after a game where they were called for 10+ more fouls than opponent since 1997.
The average score was KANSAS 38.9, OPPONENT 29.3.
-- WISCONSIN is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WISCONSIN 25.6, OPPONENT 25.9.
-- JOHN CALIPARI is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) after playing 2 consecutive road games as the coach of KENTUCKY.
The average score was CALIPARI 39.8, OPPONENT 27.8.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- OLE MISS is 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was OLE MISS 72.5, OPPONENT 72.8.
-- HOLY CROSS is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was HOLY CROSS 64.7, OPPONENT 61.6.
-- TEXAS is 14-2 against the 1rst half line (+11.8 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was TEXAS 38.2, OPPONENT 31.6.
-- ILLINOIS is 20-3 UNDER (+16.7 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ILLINOIS 27.9, OPPONENT 30.9.
-- JEFF BZDELIK is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games as the coach of WAKE FOREST.
The average score was BZDELIK 60.2, OPPONENT 76.6.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (MARQUETTE) - good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42%, playing only their 3rd game in a week, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%).
(111-21 since 1997.) (84.1%, +63.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -227.9
The average score in these games was: Team 72.2, Opponent 64.3 (Average point differential = +7.9)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3, -2.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-6, +9.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (37-8, +18.3 units).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (S ILLINOIS) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(70-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.0%, +37.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (40-62 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 67.7, Opponent 70.2 (Average point differential = -2.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 35 (35.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (15-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-13).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (158-152).
-- Play On - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (N ILLINOIS) - terrible shooting team (<=40%) against an poor defensive team (45-47.5%) after 15+ games, cold shooting team - 3 straight games making <=40% of their shots.
(25-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.8, Opponent 27.7 (Average first half point differential = +3.1)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (49-33).
-- Play On - Home underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (BAYLOR) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points, off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record.
(40-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.8, Opponent 32.2 (Average first half point differential = +0.6)
The situation's record this season is: (7-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (81-51).
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Tuesday's Match-ups
#509 MISSISSIPPI @ #510 KENTUCKY
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Kentucky -12.5, Total: N/A) - The postseason pecking order might become a bit more clear after No. 14 Kentucky hosts Mississippi in a key SEC matchup Tuesday. The teams are tied for second in the conference, which doesn't figure to get many at-large invitations to the NCAA Tournament this year, so head-to-head matchups like this one could go a long way toward shaping the bubble. The Wildcats have dominated the series, winning 100 of 113 meetings and 50 of 52 at home, where they've won 21 straight overall and are 80-2 under coach John Calipari.
The youthful Wildcats - they started five freshmen in an 84-79 victory at Missouri on Saturday - are beginning to live up their potential by showing more resolve late in close games. "The team as a whole kind of figured it out as the season went on that every team brought the energy every game and brought everything they had," Kentucky freshman Marcus Lee told reporters. "They were dying after the game because they had brought everything. We realized we had to come out with our best energy, knowing that our energy is way higher than theirs if we give as hard as we can." The Rebels have won five of their last six, but struggled a bit on the road in conference play with losses at Mississippi State and Tennessee and a close call at last-place South Carolina.
•ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (15-6 SU, 6-9-2 ATS, 6-2 SEC): The Rebels' postseason resume is hurt by home losses to mid-majors Mercer and Dayton, so they desperately need a quality win and a victory at Rupp Arena would fit the bill. Unruly sharp-shooter Marshall Henderson (19.2 points) will command plenty of attention from the Wildcats wherever he is on the floor - he ranks second in the nation with 4.28 3-pointers per game - but backcourt mate Jarvis Summers (17.8 points) has blossomed into a dangerous second option. The Rebels lack size in the post as both their starting frontcourt players are listed at 6-9, so they might have trouble with Kentucky's big men.
•ABOUT KENTUCKY (16-5 SU, 9-8-2 ATS, 6-2 SEC): It's no wonder the Wildcats went through some growing pains with their freshman-heavy roster, but the youngsters are growing up and freshmen combined for 77 of Kentucky's 84 points against Missouri. Four of those freshmen average double-digit scoring with power forward Julius Randle (16.1 points, 10.1 rebounds) leading the way. James Young (14.9 points) has been the team's leading scorer in SEC play at 16.8 points per game, and he has hit 16 3-pointers over the past five games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kentucky has allowed two straight opponents to shoot better than 50 percent from the field after allowing 50 percent or better just once in its first 19 contests.... Henderson has made at least one 3-pointer in a school-record 54 consecutive games.... Young's 51 3-pointers are the fourth-most by a freshman in Kentucky history behind Brandon Knight (87), Rex Chapman (68) and Doron Lamb (68).... The Wildcats are 5-15 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last two seasons.... The Rebels are 12-1 against the spread as a road underdog of 10 or more points since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OLE MISS covered the spread 513 times, while KENTUCKY covered the spread 487 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, KENTUCKY won the game straight up 801 times, while OLE MISS won 172 times. In 1000 simulated games, OLE MISS covered the first half line 590 times, while KENTUCKY covered the first half line 410 times. *EDGE against first half line =OLE MISS.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KENTUCKY is 11-10 against the spread versus OLE MISS since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 17-4 straight up against OLE MISS since 1997.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OLE MISS is 11-10 versus the first half line when playing against KENTUCKY since 1997.
--9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Rebels are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Rebels are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Kentucky.
--Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 4-1 in Rebels last 5 road games.
--Over is 4-1 in Rebels last 5 Tuesday games.
--Over is 9-3 in Rebels L12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--UK is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Under is 9-3-1 in UK last 13 home games.
--Under is 7-1 in UK L8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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#513 OHIO ST @ #514 IOWA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Iowa -5.5, Total: N/A) - Ohio State is trying to prove that a rough end to January is not what the team will look like going forward. Earning a second straight road victory against a ranked opponent when the No. 25 Buckeyes visit 13th-ranked Iowa on Tuesday would go a long way to ease any concerns. The Hawkeyes survived a scare at Illinois on Saturday and are comfortably in third place in the Big Ten with a 6-3 mark that includes an 84-74 triumph at Ohio State from Jan. 12.
That loss to Iowa was the second in a string of four straight and five of six by the Buckeyes, who are hoping a 59-58 victory at No. 24 Wisconsin on Saturday is what the team needs to turn its season back in a positive direction. “We’ll enjoy this for half a day and then we have another tough one on Tuesday,” guard Aaron Craft told the Columbus Dispatch. “There’s not too much over-thinking going on. It’s find a way to be better than Iowa. That’s our only thought.” That is a tough assignment against a Hawkeyes team averaging 80.6 points in its last seven games.
•ABOUT OHIO STATE (17-5 SU, 10-11-0 ATS, 4-5 Big Ten): The Buckeyes will need all the defense they can muster to slow Iowa and may have found it against Wisconsin when they held the Badgers without a field goal over the final 6:43. “We had very good activity,” coach Thad Matta told the Dispatch of the defense. “I thought guys were reading things and we were pressuring the ball where we needed it.” Ohio State gave up 47 second-half points in the Jan. 12 meeting with Iowa and did not help itself by turning the ball over 17 times. LaQuinton Ross was a bright spot with 22 points in that loss and has reached double figures in six straight.
•ABOUT IOWA (17-5 SU, 13-7-0 ATS, 6-3 Big Ten): Roy Devyn Marble scored 22 points and Aaron White put up 19 on 8-of-12 shooting in the win over Ohio State and the two continue to provide an effective outside-inside combination. Marble scored all 17 of his points in the second half of Saturday’s 81-74 victory at Illinois while White chipped in 14 and six rebounds. The Hawkeyes are staring at a tough stretch of the schedule with Ohio State and Michigan at home before heading out on the road for two, but are well-equipped to handle the rest of their Big Ten slate if reserves like center Gabriel Olaseni (15 points and 12 rebounds on Saturday) continue to produce.
•PREGAME NOTES: Ohio State is 2-2 against ranked opponents this season, with both losses coming in Big Ten games in January.... Iowa is third in the country in rebounding at 43.5 per game and held a 40-31 advantage on the glass in the first meeting.... Ross is 5-of-9 from 3-point range and 16-of-19 from the free-throw line in the last three games.... The Hawkeyes are 18-4 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Buckeyes are 19-4 versus the spread revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a home favorite since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the spread 542 times, while OHIO ST covered the spread 458 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA won the game straight up 686 times, while OHIO ST won 288 times. In 1000 simulated games, OHIO ST covered the first half line 480 times, while IOWA covered the first half line 476 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA is 16-15 against the spread versus OHIO ST since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 18-13 straight up against IOWA since 1997.
--11 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 17-14 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Buckeyes are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Iowa.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OSU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten.
--OSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games.
--Under is 6-2 in OSU last 8 road games.
--IOWA is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 vs. Big Ten.
--IOWA is 37-15 ATS in their last 52 home games.
--IOWA is 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
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#519 KANSAS @ #520 BAYLOR
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Kansas -3.5, Total: N/A) - After suffering its first conference loss of the season at Texas, No. 9 Kansas wraps up a two-game road swing against Baylor on Tuesday. Jayhawks starting point guard Naadir Tharpe was benched for the final 9:42 against Texas and leading scorer Andrew Wiggins was held to seven points on 2-of-12 shooting in an overall team effort that left guard Wayne Selden frustrated. "We didn't play Kansas basketball," Selden told the Lawrence Journal-World. "We weren't focused."
Baylor snapped a run of five straight losses and a 1-6 start to conference play with an improbable 76-70 road victory over No. 19 Oklahoma State on Saturday. Guard Brady Heslip told the Waco Tribune that the Bears understood they had a job to do in setting things right, no matter the opponent or venue. "Wherever we were going to go," he said, "we had to get a win."
•ABOUT KANSAS (16-5 SU, 10-10-1 ATS, 7-1 Big 12): Wiggins' freshman season, an expected one-and-done with an eye on being a lottery pick in the NBA draft, has been productive enough to place his 16 points per game among the Big 12's top 10 scorers, but he's also suffered through some lulls of late. The seven-point showing against Texas was Wiggins' third single-digit output in Kansas' last eight games, including a three-point clunker against the Cowboys on Jan. 18. Tharpe has averaged only 5.3 points in his last four games after posting 20 or more in back-to-backs against Iowa State and Oklahoma State.
•ABOUT BAYLOR (14-7 SU, 5-9-1 ATS, 2-6 Big 12): The Bears snapped out of their recent funk despite being without the services of starting point guard Kenny Chery, who sat out against the Cowboys with turf toe and ankle injuries. Coach Scott Drew has classified Chery, who averages 11 points and a team-high five assists, as "game-to-game." Heslip paced Baylor's offense against Oklahoma State with a season-high 20 points that included six 3-pointers.
•PREGAME NOTES: Kansas leads the series 20-4, including a 78-68 victory in Lawrence on Jan. 20 led by 18 points from F Perry Ellis.... The Bears lead the Big 12 in 3-point field goal percentage and are 17th in the nation, shooting 40.1 percent from beyond the arc.... The Jayhawks are shooting 50.3 percent on the season, good for first among Big 12 teams and fourth nationally.... Baylor is 4-13 against the spread versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... Kansas is 41-22 versus the spread after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, BAYLOR covered the spread 580 times, while KANSAS covered the spread 420 times. *EDGE against the spread =BAYLOR. In 1000 simulated games, KANSAS won the game straight up 519 times, while BAYLOR won 451 times. In 1000 simulated games, BAYLOR covered the first half line 541 times, while KANSAS covered the first half line 421 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BAYLOR is 11-9 against the spread versus KANSAS since 1997.
--KANSAS is 17-4 straight up against BAYLOR since 1997.
--9 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--BAYLOR is 12-9 versus the first half line when playing against KANSAS since 1997.
--7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Baylor.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Baylor.
--Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--KU is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Big 12.
--KU is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--Under is 21-8-2 in KU last 31 road games.
--BAY is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--BAY is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
--Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 Tuesday games.
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#521 TEXAS @ #522 TCU
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, Big 12 Network - Line: Texas -8.5, Total: N/A) - No. 18 Texas looks to extend its winning streak to seven games when it hits the road to face in-state rival Texas Christian on Tuesday. The Longhorns emerged unscathed from a brutal four-game gauntlet against top 25 teams, including an impressive 81-69 win over No. 9 Kansas on Saturday. "We're a good team," coach Rick Barnes said. "But it's such a fine line between winning and losing, if you start drinking the poison and think that you are there, it all gets away."
Texas Christian is currently mired in an eight-game losing skid following a 60-54 loss to Texas Tech. Things are likely to go from bad to worse for the Horned Frogs as they get set to meet three nationally ranked teams in their next four games in their search for their first win in Big 12 play. TCU has struggled mightily against Texas in recent years, losing 11 out of the last 12 meetings in the series, including seven in a row.
•ABOUT TEXAS (17-4, 10-8-0 ATS, 6-2 Big 12): Guard Isaiah Taylor has continued to impress and was named the Big 12 Conference Rookie of the Week after pouring in a game-high 23 points in the win over Kansas. Guard Javan Felix suffered a concussion in the waning moments versus the Jayhawks and will miss Tuesday's festivities. The Longhorns are ranked ninth nationally in rebounding and have won the battle of the boards in 16 of their 21 games.
•ABOUT TEXAS CHRISTIAN (9-11, 7-8-0 ATS, 0-8 Big 12): Guard Kyan Anderson tops the team in scoring (15.3) and assists (4.7), and netted 22 points in the loss to Texas Tech. Center Karviar Shepherd missed the game versus the Red Raiders after undergoing surgery on his non-shooting hand, but will likely be available against the Longhorns. Anderson is shooting 83.3 percent from the free-throw line and has made 21 of his last 23 attempts from the charity stripe.
•PREGAME NOTES: Texas has beaten two top 10 teams at home for the first time since the 2002-03 season.... The Longhorns are 13-0 when holding their opponents to under 40 percent shooting from the field.... Texas Christian's last win over Texas came on Jan. 10, 1995.... The Longhorns are 2-12 versus the spread after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.... The Horned Frogs are 0-6 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TCU covered the spread 551 times, while TEXAS covered the spread 449 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, TEXAS won the game straight up 686 times, while TCU won 298 times. In 1000 simulated games, TCU covered the first half line 565 times, while TEXAS covered the first half line 388 times. *EDGE against first half line =TCU.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TEXAS is 3-1 against the spread versus TCU since 1997.
--TEXAS is 4-0 straight up against TCU since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--TCU is 2-2 versus the first half line when playing against TEXAS since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 9-4 in TEX last 13 overall.
--Under is 7-2 in TEX last 9 Tue. games.
--Over is 12-4 in TEX last 16 vs. Big 12.
--TCU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
--TCU is 18-43 ATS in their last 61 home games.
--TCU is 17-36 ATS in their last 53 vs. Big 12.
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#533 WAKE FOREST @ #534 DUKE
(TV: 9:00 PM ET, ESPNU - Line: Duke -18, Total: N/A) - Even though it lost last time out, No. 11 Duke continued to serve notice it is playing as well as any team in the country. The Blue Devils, who host Wake Forest on Tuesday, saw their five-game win streak halted Saturday with a two-point overtime loss at undefeated Syracuse in a matchup that lived up to its billing. “I can't ask my team to play any harder than they did; it was a great game. Both teams played with so much heart,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said.
The Blue Devils, whose rematch against the top-ranked Orange on Feb. 22 is their only remaining game against a ranked opponent, return to action hoping to extend the nation’s longest active home win streak to 29 games against the potentially shorthanded Demon Deacons. Leading scorer Codi Miller-McIntyre left with an ankle injury at the end of the first half of Saturday’s loss to Georgia Tech and is listed as questionable for Tuesday. This contest marks the start of a daunting stretch for Wake Forest, which plays four of its next five away from home.
•ABOUT WAKE FOREST (14-8 SU, 9-9-0 ATS, 4-5 ACC): Travis McKie hit all 11 of his free throws Saturday, becoming the first Demon Deacon to make at least that many free throws without a miss since 2005. The effort helped Wake Forest go 27-of-33 from the line, continuing its ability to get to the stripe (ACC-high 593 attempts) while also bucking its season-long woes in converting free throws (league-worst 64.8 percent). The Demon Deacons, who are 11th in the country in defending 3-pointers (28.5 percent), allowed the Yellow Jackets to hit 46.2 percent from deep.
•ABOUT DUKE (17-5 SU, 14-8-0 ATS, 6-3 ACC): The Blue Devils shot 15-of-36 beyond the arc Saturday, with each total ranking as the ninth-highest single-game mark in school history. Duke’s long-range effort bumped up its season average to 41.4 percent, which would rank third on the school’s all-time single-season list behind the 1991-92 NCAA Championship team (43.4 percent) and the 1982-83 squad (42.6). Jabari Parker and Syracuse’s Tyler Ennis were named ACC Co-Rookies of the Week on Monday, marking the sixth time Parker has at least shared the award.
•PREGAME NOTES: Duke holds a 162-77 all-time lead in the series and has won seven straight meetings in the ACC’s oldest rivalry.... Wake Forest G Coron Williams has committed only four turnovers in 540 minutes this season, none during league play.... The Blue Devils’ Rasheed Sulaimon (47.9 percent), Andre Dawkins (47.2) and Rodney Hood (44.7) rank first, second and third, respectively, in the conference in 3-point percentage.... Wake Forest is 1-8 versus the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.... Duke is 7-0 against the spread in home games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WAKE FOREST covered the spread 509 times, while DUKE covered the spread 461 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DUKE won the game straight up 889 times, while WAKE FOREST won 90 times. In 1000 simulated games, WAKE FOREST covered the first half line 586 times, while DUKE covered the first half line 374 times. *EDGE against first half line =WAKE FOREST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DUKE is 20-11 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST since 1997.
--DUKE is 26-5 straight up against WAKE FOREST since 1997.
--16 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--DUKE is 16-15 versus the first half line when playing against WAKE FOREST since 1997.
--17 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Demon Deacons are 2-11 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Duke.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WAKE is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.
--Under is 11-5 in WAKE last 16 overall.
--Over is 5-2 in WAKE last 7 Tuesday games.
--DUKE is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Tue. games.
--DUKE is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Under is 4-0 in DUKE last 4 Tuesday games.
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#535 MISSOURI @ #536 FLORIDA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Florida -12, Total: N/A) - Highly touted freshman Chris Walker will make his Florida debut when the No. 4 Gators try for their 14th straight victory - and 27th in a row at home - when they meet Missouri on Tuesday. The 6-10 forward from the Florida panhandle town of Bonifay was cleared following the NCAA's investigation involving Walker receiving improper benefits during his AAU career, which amounted to a 12-game suspension since he enrolled at the school Dec. 14 after becoming academically eligible. "Chris is a really, really good kid," Gators coach Donovan told the Orlando Sentinel. "... I think obviously if Chris knew some of those things were a problem, I would believe he wouldn't have done those things."
Florida turned in another masterful defensive performance with a 69-36 victory over Texas A&M on Saturday, matching the fewest points it has allowed in an SEC game since 1950. Donovan said not to expect much from Walker, who will likely come off the bench to spell seniors Patric Young or Will Yeguete. The Tigers are coming off an 84-79 home loss to No. 14 Kentucky on Saturday in which their frontcourt produced only three points while 6-5 junior guards Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson combined for 61.
•ABOUT MISSOURI (16-5 SU, 8-9-2 ATS, 4-4 SEC): Haith had nothing but praise for Brown - the SEC's leading scorer at 20.4 points per game - and Clarkson (sixth at 18.9). "They're great players," Haith told reporters after the Kentucky game. "I don't think Jabari gets credit for how good of a player he is. I think both those guys are terrific players. They left it out there on the court. They gave it everything they had." The Tigers' three-guard starting lineup also features 6-5 senior Earnest Ross (14.2 points, second on the team with 6.6 rebounds), but the trio will face its biggest challenge against a team allowing 57.4 points per game.
•ABOUT FLORIDA (19-2 SU, 9-7-1 ATS, 8-0 SEC): The Gators allowed only two opponents to score more than 62 points - then-No. 15 Memphis recorded 75 and Arkansas had 82 in an overtime game - during their win streak, and are among the national leaders in points allowed and field goal percentage defense (38.4). "It's scary because we can get a lot better defensively," sophomore guard Michael Frazier II told reporters after scoring 21 points against Texas A&M. Florida possesses a balanced attack with senior forward Casey Prather (16.2 points per game) leading five players in double figures while boasting a rotation of nine players averaging at least 10 minutes.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Gators, whose home win streak is a school record, are 19-2 for the third time in school history, with the first two seasons (2005-06, 2006-07) culminating in national championships.... Missouri is 43-3 at home under third-year coach Frank Haith, with two losses in its last four games, including a 70-64 overtime setback to Georgia on Jan. 4.... Walker must donate the $280 he received from agents to charity and perform 80 hours of community service for other benefits he received, including air fare, lodging and cellphones.... The Tigers are 15-5 against the spread versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MISSOURI covered the spread 631 times, while FLORIDA covered the spread 344 times. *EDGE against the spread =MISSOURI. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA won the game straight up 717 times, while MISSOURI won 258 times. In 1000 simulated games, MISSOURI covered the first half line 628 times, while FLORIDA covered the first half line 329 times. *EDGE against first half line =MISSOURI.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--FLORIDA is 1-1 against the spread versus MISSOURI since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 1-1 straight up against MISSOURI since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against MISSOURI since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MIZZ is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--MIZZ is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--Under is 10-4 in MIZZ last 14 overall.
--Under is 22-7-1 in FLA last 30 overall.
--Under is 16-4-1 in FLA last 21 home games.
--Under is 13-3-1 in FLA last 17 vs. Southeastern.
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#537 WISCONSIN @ #538 ILLINOIS
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network - Line: Wisconsin -3, Total: N/A) - Much has changed since Wisconsin and Illinois met four weeks ago, when the Badgers were ranked No. 4 in the nation and headed toward their school record 16th consecutive victory to start the season. When the teams face off Tuesday at Illinois, Wisconsin will be trying to win just its second game since Jan. 8 as the team has tumbled to No. 24 in the coaches’ poll. The Illini, meanwhile, come in riding a seven-game losing streak, which began with the 95-70 defeat to the Badgers last month.
Wisconsin forward Frank Kaminsky is a Chicago-area native who should have plenty of friends and family making the trek to Champaign, Ill. The 7-footer has been a nice surprise for the Badgers, tripling his scoring average from 4.2 last season to 12.9 and shooting 41.1 percent from 3-point range. Illinois' most prolific 3-point shooter also is a starting forward, Jon Ekey, who’s hitting 39 percent from long range while averaging eight points.
•ABOUT WISCONSIN (17-5 SU, 12-10-0 ATS, 4-5 Big Ten): The Badgers continue to lead the nation in fewest turnovers (8.3) and even their biggest offender, point guard Traevon Jackson, is getting better at protecting the ball. Jackson hasn’t turned the ball over more than three times in a game since finishing with a season-high seven on Jan. 5 against Iowa. Jackson established a career high in the first meeting against the Illini last season, scoring 14 points in a 74-51 victory against the then-13th-ranked team in the country.
•ABOUT ILLINOIS (13-9 SU, 8-9-4 ATS, 2-7 Big Ten): Kendrick Nunn is beginning to see his minutes increase and this could be the game where the backup freshman point guard finally reaches double figures in scoring. Nunn, who last season was considered the second-best high school senior in the state of Illinois behind teammate Jabari Parker, now at Duke, played a season-high 29 minutes two weeks ago against Michigan State and 24 the following weekend against Indiana, but was limited to 13 in Saturday’s loss to Iowa. Some are calling for Nunn to get more playing time than junior starter Tracy Abrams, who’s shooting 32.8 percent from the floor during the seven-game skid.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Illini will be trying to avoid their longest losing streak in 40 years.... Illinois has either led or been tied with seven minutes left in six of its nine losses this season.... Six different players have led Wisconsin in scoring at least twice this season.... The Illini are 8-21 versus the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.... The Badgers are 1-9 against the spread versus poor 3-point shooting teams - making less than 31% of their attempts over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN covered the spread 538 times, while ILLINOIS covered the spread 420 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN won the game straight up 633 times, while ILLINOIS won 341 times. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN covered the first half line 530 times, while ILLINOIS covered the first half line 470 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WISCONSIN is 20-13 against the spread versus ILLINOIS since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 19-16 straight up against ILLINOIS since 1997.
--13 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ILLINOIS is 17-17 versus the first half line when playing against WISCONSIN since 1997.
--12 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Badgers are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Badgers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Illinois.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Illinois.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Favorite is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WIS is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten.
--WIS is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Under is 7-3 in WIS last 10 Tue. games.
--ILL is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--ILL is 12-30-1 ATS in their last 43 vs. Big Ten.
--Over is 6-2 in ILL last 8 home games.
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GC: NCAAB Play
Ruby Tuesday card has 5* NBA Dominator system that has a 19-0 Statistical Indicator we also have an Undefeated totals system. In College Hoops we have a Big 10 Power system Play with 3 Perfect Angles. Monday hoops card cashes 3 of 4. College Hoops play below
The Tuesday the NCAAB play is on Holy Cross. Game 551 at 9:00 eastern. Holy Cross has controlled the series of late winning 4 of the last 5 vs Colgate. Holy Cross comes in off a loss at American University despite shooting 60%, that loss snapped their 5 game win streak. Tonight they travel to Colgate which lost here at home by 9 to Bucknell on Saturday. In games vs teams ranked worse than 20 in the RPI Scale Holy Cross is 11-1. They are 9-2 vs teams that have a losing record and have covered 5 of 7 after scoring 60 or less points. Colgate is 1-8 revenging a road loss and has lost 31 of the last 40 conference games, while going 2-7 vs winning teams. Look for Holy Cross to take another from Colgate here tonight. On Tuesday night we have 2 Powerful NBA Plays, one is a 5* Dominator system side with a 19-0 Statistical Indicator, the other an Undefeated totals system. In College Hoops we have a Big 10 Dominator system. Jump on now and cash big on Tuesday. For the Bonus Play take. Holy Cross. GC
Ruby Tuesday card has 5* NBA Dominator system that has a 19-0 Statistical Indicator we also have an Undefeated totals system. In College Hoops we have a Big 10 Power system Play with 3 Perfect Angles. Monday hoops card cashes 3 of 4. College Hoops play below
The Tuesday the NCAAB play is on Holy Cross. Game 551 at 9:00 eastern. Holy Cross has controlled the series of late winning 4 of the last 5 vs Colgate. Holy Cross comes in off a loss at American University despite shooting 60%, that loss snapped their 5 game win streak. Tonight they travel to Colgate which lost here at home by 9 to Bucknell on Saturday. In games vs teams ranked worse than 20 in the RPI Scale Holy Cross is 11-1. They are 9-2 vs teams that have a losing record and have covered 5 of 7 after scoring 60 or less points. Colgate is 1-8 revenging a road loss and has lost 31 of the last 40 conference games, while going 2-7 vs winning teams. Look for Holy Cross to take another from Colgate here tonight. On Tuesday night we have 2 Powerful NBA Plays, one is a 5* Dominator system side with a 19-0 Statistical Indicator, the other an Undefeated totals system. In College Hoops we have a Big 10 Dominator system. Jump on now and cash big on Tuesday. For the Bonus Play take. Holy Cross. GC
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/4/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Tuesday, 2/4/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Hot Teams
-- Atlanta won five of its last seven games. Pacers won 17 of their last 22 games, covered two of last seven.
-- Suns won/covered their last five games.
-- Golden State won three of its last four games. Bobcats are 4-3 in their last seven games.
•Cold Teams
-- Minnesota lost last two games, by 4-7 points. Lakers lost their last six games (0-4 vs. spread in last four).
-- Bulls lost three of their last four games.
•Totals
-- Eight of last nine Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Nine of last ten Laker games went over the total.
-- Last five Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Golden State games.
•Back-To-Backs
-- Pacers are 3-9 versus spread if they played night before.
-- Chicago is 6-4 versus spread if it played night before.
•Series Records
-- Pacers lost last three visits to Atlanta by 21-11-10 points.
-- Lakers won 19 of their last 20 games with Minnesota.
-- Bulls won five of their last six games with Phoenix.
-- Bobcats won six of last nine games with Golden State.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- CHARLOTTE is 31-57 ATS (-31.7 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 92.9, OPPONENT 101.3.
-- GOLDEN STATE is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 103.7, OPPONENT 85.0.
-- LA LAKERS are 3-17 (-15.7 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 45.9, OPPONENT 54.9.
-- INDIANA is 19-4 UNDER (+14.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 42.7, OPPONENT 42.9.
-- MIKE D'ANTONI is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games after 5 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was D'ANTONI 103.2, OPPONENT 104.7.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- MINNESOTA is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 101.6, OPPONENT 91.4.
-- MINNESOTA is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) versus horrible rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 5+/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 92.2, OPPONENT 92.7.
-- ATLANTA is 8-21 (-15.1 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 47.1, OPPONENT 49.3.
-- PHOENIX is 24-7 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 55.0, OPPONENT 51.8.
-- MIKE D'ANTONI is 117-79 ATS (+30.1 Units) in road games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was D'ANTONI 104.5, OPPONENT 105.4.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Any team versus the money line (LA LAKERS) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game, after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 105 points or more.
(98-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.8%, +61.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -111.1
The average score in these games was: Team 104.3, Opponent 98.9 (Average point differential = +5.4)
The situation's record this season is: (15-12, +4.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-14, +31 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (216-132, +15.9 units).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, in February games.
(28-7 since 1996.) (80.0%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (4-32)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 11.9
The average score in these games was: Team 93.4, Opponent 101.5 (Average point differential = -8.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (36.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-5).
-- Play Over - Any team (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.4
The average score in these games was: Team 104, Opponent 98.9 (Total points scored = 203)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (59.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (104-61).
-- Play On - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (PHOENIX) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half.
(50-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +28.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.7, Opponent 48.2 (Average first half point differential = +5.4)
The situation's record this season is: (8-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-10).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (155-142).
-- Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) after 42+ games.
(48-14 since 1996.) (77.4%, +32.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.6, Opponent 46.6 (Total first half points scored = 93.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
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Tuesday's Match-ups
#501 INDIANA @ #502 ATLANTA
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, FSN Indiana, SportsSouth (Atlanta) - Line: Pacers -3, Total: 197.5) - The Indiana Pacers attempt to halt a 12-game regular-season losing streak in Atlanta when they visit the Hawks on Tuesday. Atlanta posted a 97-87 victory on Jan. 8 to continue its longstanding homecourt dominance in the series as the Pacers haven’t won on the Hawks’ floor since Dec. 22, 2006. Even 28 points and 12 rebounds from All-Star forward Paul George wasn’t enough to halt Indiana’s skid in last month’s visit to Atlanta.
The Pacers routed the Orlando Magic 98-79 on Monday and appear to have rediscovered their strong defensive play. Indiana gave up over 100 points in four of five games before rebounding to allow an average of 87.5 in back-to-back victories over Brooklyn and Orlando. The Hawks have won five of their last seven games after slipping past the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday. All-Star forward Paul Millsap had 20 points and 13 rebounds in that outing and has scored 20 or more in seven of the last 10 games.
•ABOUT THE PACERS (37-10 SU, 30-17-0 ATS): Indiana received 49 points from its bench in the victory over Orlando with former All-Star forward Danny Granger scoring a season-high 16 of them. Granger has accepted his reserve role after missing all but five games last season due to injuries, an absence that allowed George to emerge as a standout. The output was Granger’s best since scoring 20 points against the Miami Heat in Game 4 of a second-round playoff series in 2012. “I thought he did a good job of coming out getting shots and getting his looks,” forward David West said afterward. “He’s getting his legs back under him, his timing’s coming and we know that our bench is dangerous.”
•ABOUT THE HAWKS (25-21 SU, 26-20-0 ATS): Starting forward DeMarre Carroll has been a solid contributor and he has scored in double digits in each of his last seven games, the top stretch of his career. Carroll is averaging 15.7 points and shooting 56.9 percent from the field – including 16-of-30 from 3-point range – over the stretch while also playing his trademark strong defense. Carroll had 10 steals over the last three games and is averaging 1.5 thefts along with career-best totals of 10.2 points and 5.6 rebounds.
•PREGAME NOTES: Atlanta G/F Korver had 17 points to lead five players in double figures in the January meeting.... West tweaked an ankle against Orlando but says he plans to play against the Hawks.... Hawks F Mike Scott has scored in double digits in a career-best 11 consecutive games.... The Pacers are 16-6 against the spread versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game this season.... Atlanta is 9-20 versus the spread in home games versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the spread 629 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 362 times. *EDGE against the spread =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA won the game straight up 546 times, while INDIANA won 423 times. In 1000 simulated games, 554 games went over the total, while 446 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the first half line 599 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 401 times. *EDGE against first half line =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, 534 games went over first half total, while 466 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ATLANTA is 39-31 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1996.
--INDIANA is 36-35 straight up against ATLANTA since 1996.
--36 of 67 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--ATLANTA is 44-25 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1996.
--34 of 68 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Pacers are 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Atlanta.
--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta.
--Favorite is 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings.
--Home team is 23-8 ATS in the last 31 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
--Over is 7-1-1 in Pacers last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Over is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 7-1 in Hawks last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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#503 LA LAKERS @ #504 MINNESOTA
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, TWC SportsNet (Los Angeles), FSN North (Minnesota) - Line: Timberwolves -10, Total: 215.5) - Only the Sacramento Kings are keeping the Los Angeles Lakers from the basement in the Western Conference after a terrible month of January. The Lakers will attempt to get off to a better start in February when they visit the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday. The Timberwolves are going through their own rough patch with back-to-back losses but All-Star forward Kevin Love is doing his best to drag the team to the win column.
Love scored 21 of his 43 points in the fourth quarter of a 120-113 loss at Atlanta on Saturday after putting up 28 points and 16 rebounds in a 94-90 loss to Memphis the previous night. He went for 25 points and 13 boards in a 104-91 loss to the Lakers on Dec. 20 - a victory that evened Los Angeles’ record at 13-13. The Lakers never managed to get over the even mark and have dropped 18 of 21 games since that triumph over the Timberwolves, including the last six in a row.
•ABOUT THE LAKERS (16-31 SU, 24-22-1 ATS): Los Angeles’ defense has allowed over 100 points in 14 consecutive games and that took another hit when it was announced that center Pau Gasol would miss at least a week with a groin strain. Gasol joins the plethora of Lakers guards on the injury report, though it was encouraging that Steve Nash (back), Jordan Farmar (hamstring) and Steve Blake (elbow) all participated in practice on Thursday before sitting out Friday’s 110-100 home loss to the Charlotte Bobcats. Surprisingly point guard has been on of the few bright spots due to the play of Kendall Marshall, who is putting up 10.5 points and 9.6 assists after being picked up in December
•ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (23-24 SU, 25-22-0 ATS): Love is doing a lot of the damage by himself with Nikola Pekovic (ankle bursitis) out of the lineup and Kevin Martin struggling with his shot. Minnesota won two straight to climb above .500 but Pekovic’s absence in the last three games took its toll on the offense and the defense. Love’s fourth-quarter outburst on Saturday could not cover the 72 second-half points the Timberwolves surrendered. “(Giving up) 72 points (in a half) is not going to do it,” coach Rick Adelman told reporters. “The first five minutes set the tone for the whole half.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Martin is shooting 37.9 percent from the field and 3-of-13 from 3-point range in the last four games.... Nash and Blake are the closest to coming back and could attempt to take the court on Tuesday.... Love is averaging 33.7 points and 16.3 rebounds in the last three games with Pekovic sidelined.... The Lakers are 9-22 against the spread in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last three seasons.... The Timberwolves are 12-1 versus the spread versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the spread 699 times, while LA LAKERS covered the spread 276 times. *EDGE against the spread =MINNESOTA. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA won the game straight up 886 times, while LA LAKERS won 102 times. In 1000 simulated games, 556 games went under the total, while 444 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the first half line 616 times, while LA LAKERS covered the first half line 357 times. *EDGE against first half line =MINNESOTA. In 1000 simulated games, 536 games went under first half total, while 464 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MINNESOTA is 38-36 against the spread versus LA LAKERS since 1996.
--LA LAKERS is 57-20 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--36 of 71 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--LA LAKERS is 40-36 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--43 of 73 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Lakers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota.
--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota.
--Road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 7-0 in Lakers last 7 road games.
--Over is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more.
--Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Over is 6-0 in Timberwolves last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Over is 5-0-1 in Timberwolves last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
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#505 CHICAGO @ #506 PHOENIX
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, NBATV, CSN Chicago, FSN Arizona (Phoenix) - Line: Suns -7, Total: 194.5) - The Chicago Bulls look for the fifth consecutive victory in Phoenix when they visit the streaking Suns on Tuesday. Phoenix has won its last five games with the lowest winning margin being eight points and will be the most-rested team, having last played Saturday, and figures to push the pace early. The Bulls were shellacked 99-70 in Sacramento on Monday when they set season lows for points scored and shooting percentage (28.2).
Suns point guard Goran Dragic was named Western Conference Player of the Week after averaging 26.8 points and shooting 63.9 percent from the field last week. Dragic has scored 24 or more points in each of the last four games and has raised his season average to an even 20 points. Chicago is 1-2 on a six-game road trip and All-Star center Joakim Noah was ejected against the Kings after drawing two technical fouls in a 2 1/2-minute span of the third quarter. The early exit ended Noah’s streak of consecutive double-digit rebounding efforts at 18.
•ABOUT THE BULLS (23-24 SU, 21-26-0 ATS): While Noah lost his cool during the contest, power forward Carlos Boozer blasted coach Tom Thibodeau earlier in the day for often removing him during the fourth quarter of close games. “I think I should be out there but it’s his choice,” Boozer told reporters. “He makes the decisions out there so I play. I don’t coach. He coaches. So he decides that. But honestly, he’s been doing that a lot since I’ve been here – not putting me in in the fourth quarter. Sometimes we win; more times than not, we don’t. But that’s his choice.” Boozer had his second consecutive poor game when he had just eight points against the Kings and is averaging only six points on 6-of-23 shooting over the past two games.
•ABOUT THE SUNS (29-18 SU, 32-14-1 ATS): Backup forward Markieff Morris has reached double digits in 10 straight games and Phoenix is 8-2 during the stretch. The hot streak that has seen Morris average 17.9 points followed a horrific five-game span in which the Suns went 1-4 while Morris averaged 6.6 points and shot 28.9 percent from the field. Coach Jeff Hornacek had a heart-to-heart discussion with the athletic 24-year-old, who immediately elevated his effort. “I think everybody would respond to it the way I did,” Morris told reporters. “I just want to do what I can for the team. We have a great group of guys and we just want to win as much as possible.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Chicago recorded a 92-87 home victory over Phoenix on Jan. 7.... Bulls PGs D.J. Augustin (2-of-11) and Kirk Hinrich (1-of-8) were a woeful 3-of-19 from the field against the Kings.... Phoenix has scored 20 or more fast-break points 23 times this season after doing so just 12 times all last season.... Phoenix is 13-3 against the spread versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.... Chicago is 12-2 Under versus poor passing teams, averaging less than 20 assists/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX covered the spread 618 times, while CHICAGO covered the spread 358 times. *EDGE against the spread =PHOENIX. In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX won the game straight up 762 times, while CHICAGO won 218 times. In 1000 simulated games, 589 games went under the total, while 411 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX covered the first half line 549 times, while CHICAGO covered the first half line 451 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 521 games went over first half total, while 479 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PHOENIX is 16-16 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1996.
--PHOENIX is 17-15 straight up against CHICAGO since 1996.
--19 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 20-11 versus the first half line when playing against PHOENIX since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Bulls are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Bulls are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Phoenix.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Phoenix.
--Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 road games.
--Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
--Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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#507 CHARLOTTE @ #508 GOLDEN STATE
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, SportSouth (Charlotte), CSN Bay Area (Golden State) - Line: Warriors 10, Total: 199.5) - The Golden State Warriors are back to playing the type of lockdown defense that served them so well earlier in the season and are getting just enough from guard Stephen Curry on the other end to make it stand up. The Warriors will aim for a third straight win when they host the Charlotte Bobcats on Tuesday. Golden State is allowing an average of 89.5 points in its last four games and is taking on a Bobcats team ranked 28th in the NBA in scoring average.
The defense gave Curry just enough time to pull out a win almost by himself on the offensive end on Friday, when the All-Star put up a season-high 44 points and hit eight 3-pointers in the 95-90 triumph. “Started off a couple of heat checks from (Thursday) night, shot the ball well (Thursday) and started the game off (against the Jazz) on the same pace,” Curry told reporters. “Stretched the defense out that way.” Curry, who went 8-of-10 from the floor in a win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday, posted his previous season high of 43 points in a 115-111 loss at Charlotte on Dec. 9.
•ABOUT THE BOBCATS (21-28 SU, 26-21-2 ATS): Charlotte shot 50 percent or better from the floor for just the fifth time this season and improved to 5-0 on such occasions with a 110-100 triumph over the stumbling Los Angeles Lakers on Friday but failed to carry that momentum into a 105-95 loss at Phoenix the next night. Center Al Jefferson, who matched a career high with 40 points and went for 20 or more in a team-record 11th straight game in the win over the Lakers, slumped to 10 points on 4-of-15 shooting Saturday. Jefferson managed only 11 points in the Dec. 9 win over Golden State but guard Kemba Walker, who has missed the last seven games with an ankle injury, picked up the slack with 31 points.
•ABOUT THE WARRIORS (29-19 SU, 21-25-2 ATS): Golden State was without David Lee (shoulder) on Friday and could use the forward back in a week that includes two of the better defensive teams in Charlotte and the Chicago Bulls. The Warriors want to be recognized as one of the elite defensive teams and coach Mark Jackson praised his team’s effort on that end after the win Friday. “”We made them work,” Jackson said. “We made multiple effort plays. (Bogut) and Draymond (Green) are elite defenders, and you surround them with Klay (Thompson) and Andre (Iguodala) or Harrison (Barnes) and (Curry). They battled, they competed.” The Warriors will play six of their next eight at home as they try to make their way up the Western Conference standings.
•PREGAME NOTES: Curry is averaging 32 points on 53.4 percent shooting, including 59.5 percent from beyond the arc, in the last five games.... Jefferson had a string of six straight games shooting 50 percent or better from the field come to an end on Saturday.... Lee is not expected to miss a large amount of time and could be back on Tuesday.... The Warriors are 9-0 Under revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite this season.... The Bobcats are 13-33 versus the spread in non-conference games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the spread 556 times, while CHARLOTTE covered the spread 418 times. *EDGE against the spread =GOLDEN STATE. In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE won the game straight up 779 times, while CHARLOTTE won 208 times. In 1000 simulated games, 543 games went under the total, while 457 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the first half line 513 times, while CHARLOTTE covered the first half line 458 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 534 games went under first half total, while 466 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CHARLOTTE is 10-8 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--GOLDEN STATE is 9-9 straight up against CHARLOTTE since 1996.
--13 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--GOLDEN STATE is 11-7 versus the first half line when playing against CHARLOTTE since 1996.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 Tuesday games.
--Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
--Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
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NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 2/4/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Hot Teams
-- Atlanta won five of its last seven games. Pacers won 17 of their last 22 games, covered two of last seven.
-- Suns won/covered their last five games.
-- Golden State won three of its last four games. Bobcats are 4-3 in their last seven games.
•Cold Teams
-- Minnesota lost last two games, by 4-7 points. Lakers lost their last six games (0-4 vs. spread in last four).
-- Bulls lost three of their last four games.
•Totals
-- Eight of last nine Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Nine of last ten Laker games went over the total.
-- Last five Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Golden State games.
•Back-To-Backs
-- Pacers are 3-9 versus spread if they played night before.
-- Chicago is 6-4 versus spread if it played night before.
•Series Records
-- Pacers lost last three visits to Atlanta by 21-11-10 points.
-- Lakers won 19 of their last 20 games with Minnesota.
-- Bulls won five of their last six games with Phoenix.
-- Bobcats won six of last nine games with Golden State.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- CHARLOTTE is 31-57 ATS (-31.7 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 92.9, OPPONENT 101.3.
-- GOLDEN STATE is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 103.7, OPPONENT 85.0.
-- LA LAKERS are 3-17 (-15.7 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 45.9, OPPONENT 54.9.
-- INDIANA is 19-4 UNDER (+14.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 42.7, OPPONENT 42.9.
-- MIKE D'ANTONI is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games after 5 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was D'ANTONI 103.2, OPPONENT 104.7.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- MINNESOTA is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 101.6, OPPONENT 91.4.
-- MINNESOTA is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) versus horrible rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 5+/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 92.2, OPPONENT 92.7.
-- ATLANTA is 8-21 (-15.1 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 47.1, OPPONENT 49.3.
-- PHOENIX is 24-7 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 55.0, OPPONENT 51.8.
-- MIKE D'ANTONI is 117-79 ATS (+30.1 Units) in road games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was D'ANTONI 104.5, OPPONENT 105.4.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Any team versus the money line (LA LAKERS) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game, after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 105 points or more.
(98-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.8%, +61.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -111.1
The average score in these games was: Team 104.3, Opponent 98.9 (Average point differential = +5.4)
The situation's record this season is: (15-12, +4.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-14, +31 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (216-132, +15.9 units).
-- Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, in February games.
(28-7 since 1996.) (80.0%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (4-32)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 11.9
The average score in these games was: Team 93.4, Opponent 101.5 (Average point differential = -8.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 13 (36.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-5).
-- Play Over - Any team (GOLDEN STATE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.4
The average score in these games was: Team 104, Opponent 98.9 (Total points scored = 203)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (59.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (104-61).
-- Play On - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (PHOENIX) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half.
(50-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +28.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.7, Opponent 48.2 (Average first half point differential = +5.4)
The situation's record this season is: (8-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-10).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (155-142).
-- Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) after 42+ games.
(48-14 since 1996.) (77.4%, +32.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.6, Opponent 46.6 (Total first half points scored = 93.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
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Tuesday's Match-ups
#501 INDIANA @ #502 ATLANTA
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, FSN Indiana, SportsSouth (Atlanta) - Line: Pacers -3, Total: 197.5) - The Indiana Pacers attempt to halt a 12-game regular-season losing streak in Atlanta when they visit the Hawks on Tuesday. Atlanta posted a 97-87 victory on Jan. 8 to continue its longstanding homecourt dominance in the series as the Pacers haven’t won on the Hawks’ floor since Dec. 22, 2006. Even 28 points and 12 rebounds from All-Star forward Paul George wasn’t enough to halt Indiana’s skid in last month’s visit to Atlanta.
The Pacers routed the Orlando Magic 98-79 on Monday and appear to have rediscovered their strong defensive play. Indiana gave up over 100 points in four of five games before rebounding to allow an average of 87.5 in back-to-back victories over Brooklyn and Orlando. The Hawks have won five of their last seven games after slipping past the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday. All-Star forward Paul Millsap had 20 points and 13 rebounds in that outing and has scored 20 or more in seven of the last 10 games.
•ABOUT THE PACERS (37-10 SU, 30-17-0 ATS): Indiana received 49 points from its bench in the victory over Orlando with former All-Star forward Danny Granger scoring a season-high 16 of them. Granger has accepted his reserve role after missing all but five games last season due to injuries, an absence that allowed George to emerge as a standout. The output was Granger’s best since scoring 20 points against the Miami Heat in Game 4 of a second-round playoff series in 2012. “I thought he did a good job of coming out getting shots and getting his looks,” forward David West said afterward. “He’s getting his legs back under him, his timing’s coming and we know that our bench is dangerous.”
•ABOUT THE HAWKS (25-21 SU, 26-20-0 ATS): Starting forward DeMarre Carroll has been a solid contributor and he has scored in double digits in each of his last seven games, the top stretch of his career. Carroll is averaging 15.7 points and shooting 56.9 percent from the field – including 16-of-30 from 3-point range – over the stretch while also playing his trademark strong defense. Carroll had 10 steals over the last three games and is averaging 1.5 thefts along with career-best totals of 10.2 points and 5.6 rebounds.
•PREGAME NOTES: Atlanta G/F Korver had 17 points to lead five players in double figures in the January meeting.... West tweaked an ankle against Orlando but says he plans to play against the Hawks.... Hawks F Mike Scott has scored in double digits in a career-best 11 consecutive games.... The Pacers are 16-6 against the spread versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game this season.... Atlanta is 9-20 versus the spread in home games versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the spread 629 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 362 times. *EDGE against the spread =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA won the game straight up 546 times, while INDIANA won 423 times. In 1000 simulated games, 554 games went over the total, while 446 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the first half line 599 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 401 times. *EDGE against first half line =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, 534 games went over first half total, while 466 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ATLANTA is 39-31 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1996.
--INDIANA is 36-35 straight up against ATLANTA since 1996.
--36 of 67 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--ATLANTA is 44-25 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1996.
--34 of 68 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Pacers are 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Atlanta.
--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta.
--Favorite is 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings.
--Home team is 23-8 ATS in the last 31 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
--Over is 7-1-1 in Pacers last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Over is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 7-1 in Hawks last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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#503 LA LAKERS @ #504 MINNESOTA
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, TWC SportsNet (Los Angeles), FSN North (Minnesota) - Line: Timberwolves -10, Total: 215.5) - Only the Sacramento Kings are keeping the Los Angeles Lakers from the basement in the Western Conference after a terrible month of January. The Lakers will attempt to get off to a better start in February when they visit the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday. The Timberwolves are going through their own rough patch with back-to-back losses but All-Star forward Kevin Love is doing his best to drag the team to the win column.
Love scored 21 of his 43 points in the fourth quarter of a 120-113 loss at Atlanta on Saturday after putting up 28 points and 16 rebounds in a 94-90 loss to Memphis the previous night. He went for 25 points and 13 boards in a 104-91 loss to the Lakers on Dec. 20 - a victory that evened Los Angeles’ record at 13-13. The Lakers never managed to get over the even mark and have dropped 18 of 21 games since that triumph over the Timberwolves, including the last six in a row.
•ABOUT THE LAKERS (16-31 SU, 24-22-1 ATS): Los Angeles’ defense has allowed over 100 points in 14 consecutive games and that took another hit when it was announced that center Pau Gasol would miss at least a week with a groin strain. Gasol joins the plethora of Lakers guards on the injury report, though it was encouraging that Steve Nash (back), Jordan Farmar (hamstring) and Steve Blake (elbow) all participated in practice on Thursday before sitting out Friday’s 110-100 home loss to the Charlotte Bobcats. Surprisingly point guard has been on of the few bright spots due to the play of Kendall Marshall, who is putting up 10.5 points and 9.6 assists after being picked up in December
•ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (23-24 SU, 25-22-0 ATS): Love is doing a lot of the damage by himself with Nikola Pekovic (ankle bursitis) out of the lineup and Kevin Martin struggling with his shot. Minnesota won two straight to climb above .500 but Pekovic’s absence in the last three games took its toll on the offense and the defense. Love’s fourth-quarter outburst on Saturday could not cover the 72 second-half points the Timberwolves surrendered. “(Giving up) 72 points (in a half) is not going to do it,” coach Rick Adelman told reporters. “The first five minutes set the tone for the whole half.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Martin is shooting 37.9 percent from the field and 3-of-13 from 3-point range in the last four games.... Nash and Blake are the closest to coming back and could attempt to take the court on Tuesday.... Love is averaging 33.7 points and 16.3 rebounds in the last three games with Pekovic sidelined.... The Lakers are 9-22 against the spread in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last three seasons.... The Timberwolves are 12-1 versus the spread versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the spread 699 times, while LA LAKERS covered the spread 276 times. *EDGE against the spread =MINNESOTA. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA won the game straight up 886 times, while LA LAKERS won 102 times. In 1000 simulated games, 556 games went under the total, while 444 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the first half line 616 times, while LA LAKERS covered the first half line 357 times. *EDGE against first half line =MINNESOTA. In 1000 simulated games, 536 games went under first half total, while 464 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MINNESOTA is 38-36 against the spread versus LA LAKERS since 1996.
--LA LAKERS is 57-20 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--36 of 71 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--LA LAKERS is 40-36 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--43 of 73 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Lakers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota.
--Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota.
--Road team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 7-0 in Lakers last 7 road games.
--Over is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more.
--Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Over is 6-0 in Timberwolves last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Over is 5-0-1 in Timberwolves last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
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#505 CHICAGO @ #506 PHOENIX
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, NBATV, CSN Chicago, FSN Arizona (Phoenix) - Line: Suns -7, Total: 194.5) - The Chicago Bulls look for the fifth consecutive victory in Phoenix when they visit the streaking Suns on Tuesday. Phoenix has won its last five games with the lowest winning margin being eight points and will be the most-rested team, having last played Saturday, and figures to push the pace early. The Bulls were shellacked 99-70 in Sacramento on Monday when they set season lows for points scored and shooting percentage (28.2).
Suns point guard Goran Dragic was named Western Conference Player of the Week after averaging 26.8 points and shooting 63.9 percent from the field last week. Dragic has scored 24 or more points in each of the last four games and has raised his season average to an even 20 points. Chicago is 1-2 on a six-game road trip and All-Star center Joakim Noah was ejected against the Kings after drawing two technical fouls in a 2 1/2-minute span of the third quarter. The early exit ended Noah’s streak of consecutive double-digit rebounding efforts at 18.
•ABOUT THE BULLS (23-24 SU, 21-26-0 ATS): While Noah lost his cool during the contest, power forward Carlos Boozer blasted coach Tom Thibodeau earlier in the day for often removing him during the fourth quarter of close games. “I think I should be out there but it’s his choice,” Boozer told reporters. “He makes the decisions out there so I play. I don’t coach. He coaches. So he decides that. But honestly, he’s been doing that a lot since I’ve been here – not putting me in in the fourth quarter. Sometimes we win; more times than not, we don’t. But that’s his choice.” Boozer had his second consecutive poor game when he had just eight points against the Kings and is averaging only six points on 6-of-23 shooting over the past two games.
•ABOUT THE SUNS (29-18 SU, 32-14-1 ATS): Backup forward Markieff Morris has reached double digits in 10 straight games and Phoenix is 8-2 during the stretch. The hot streak that has seen Morris average 17.9 points followed a horrific five-game span in which the Suns went 1-4 while Morris averaged 6.6 points and shot 28.9 percent from the field. Coach Jeff Hornacek had a heart-to-heart discussion with the athletic 24-year-old, who immediately elevated his effort. “I think everybody would respond to it the way I did,” Morris told reporters. “I just want to do what I can for the team. We have a great group of guys and we just want to win as much as possible.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Chicago recorded a 92-87 home victory over Phoenix on Jan. 7.... Bulls PGs D.J. Augustin (2-of-11) and Kirk Hinrich (1-of-8) were a woeful 3-of-19 from the field against the Kings.... Phoenix has scored 20 or more fast-break points 23 times this season after doing so just 12 times all last season.... Phoenix is 13-3 against the spread versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.... Chicago is 12-2 Under versus poor passing teams, averaging less than 20 assists/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX covered the spread 618 times, while CHICAGO covered the spread 358 times. *EDGE against the spread =PHOENIX. In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX won the game straight up 762 times, while CHICAGO won 218 times. In 1000 simulated games, 589 games went under the total, while 411 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHOENIX covered the first half line 549 times, while CHICAGO covered the first half line 451 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 521 games went over first half total, while 479 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PHOENIX is 16-16 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1996.
--PHOENIX is 17-15 straight up against CHICAGO since 1996.
--19 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 20-11 versus the first half line when playing against PHOENIX since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Bulls are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Bulls are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Phoenix.
--Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Phoenix.
--Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 road games.
--Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
--Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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#507 CHARLOTTE @ #508 GOLDEN STATE
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, SportSouth (Charlotte), CSN Bay Area (Golden State) - Line: Warriors 10, Total: 199.5) - The Golden State Warriors are back to playing the type of lockdown defense that served them so well earlier in the season and are getting just enough from guard Stephen Curry on the other end to make it stand up. The Warriors will aim for a third straight win when they host the Charlotte Bobcats on Tuesday. Golden State is allowing an average of 89.5 points in its last four games and is taking on a Bobcats team ranked 28th in the NBA in scoring average.
The defense gave Curry just enough time to pull out a win almost by himself on the offensive end on Friday, when the All-Star put up a season-high 44 points and hit eight 3-pointers in the 95-90 triumph. “Started off a couple of heat checks from (Thursday) night, shot the ball well (Thursday) and started the game off (against the Jazz) on the same pace,” Curry told reporters. “Stretched the defense out that way.” Curry, who went 8-of-10 from the floor in a win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday, posted his previous season high of 43 points in a 115-111 loss at Charlotte on Dec. 9.
•ABOUT THE BOBCATS (21-28 SU, 26-21-2 ATS): Charlotte shot 50 percent or better from the floor for just the fifth time this season and improved to 5-0 on such occasions with a 110-100 triumph over the stumbling Los Angeles Lakers on Friday but failed to carry that momentum into a 105-95 loss at Phoenix the next night. Center Al Jefferson, who matched a career high with 40 points and went for 20 or more in a team-record 11th straight game in the win over the Lakers, slumped to 10 points on 4-of-15 shooting Saturday. Jefferson managed only 11 points in the Dec. 9 win over Golden State but guard Kemba Walker, who has missed the last seven games with an ankle injury, picked up the slack with 31 points.
•ABOUT THE WARRIORS (29-19 SU, 21-25-2 ATS): Golden State was without David Lee (shoulder) on Friday and could use the forward back in a week that includes two of the better defensive teams in Charlotte and the Chicago Bulls. The Warriors want to be recognized as one of the elite defensive teams and coach Mark Jackson praised his team’s effort on that end after the win Friday. “”We made them work,” Jackson said. “We made multiple effort plays. (Bogut) and Draymond (Green) are elite defenders, and you surround them with Klay (Thompson) and Andre (Iguodala) or Harrison (Barnes) and (Curry). They battled, they competed.” The Warriors will play six of their next eight at home as they try to make their way up the Western Conference standings.
•PREGAME NOTES: Curry is averaging 32 points on 53.4 percent shooting, including 59.5 percent from beyond the arc, in the last five games.... Jefferson had a string of six straight games shooting 50 percent or better from the field come to an end on Saturday.... Lee is not expected to miss a large amount of time and could be back on Tuesday.... The Warriors are 9-0 Under revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite this season.... The Bobcats are 13-33 versus the spread in non-conference games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the spread 556 times, while CHARLOTTE covered the spread 418 times. *EDGE against the spread =GOLDEN STATE. In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE won the game straight up 779 times, while CHARLOTTE won 208 times. In 1000 simulated games, 543 games went under the total, while 457 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the first half line 513 times, while CHARLOTTE covered the first half line 458 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 534 games went under first half total, while 466 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CHARLOTTE is 10-8 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--GOLDEN STATE is 9-9 straight up against CHARLOTTE since 1996.
--13 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--GOLDEN STATE is 11-7 versus the first half line when playing against CHARLOTTE since 1996.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 Tuesday games.
--Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
--Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more.
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