Denver Money's Olympic Hockey 2/23
We finally get the men's Olympic hockey back today with 4 pretty good games. I am still looking over the evening games, but wanted to go ahead and get the first game posted. Best of luck to all today!
Switzerland -1 -105
Switzerland is coming into this game today looking to play better then they did in their victory over Norway. Switzerland is only 1-2 but also coming out of a very tough pool play round with the loses to USA and Canada. They did play both of these teams close losing only 3-1 to USA and 3-2 to Canada in a shootout. With a victory today the Swiss will get a rematch with the USA and they would love that chance to prove they can beat the USA. I still can't figure out why this line is set at only 1 with Belarus not being the best of hockey team. I thought it would have been atleast two points. Belarus did win their last game, but they also beat a Germany team that has been a big disappointment in this Olympics. Belarus lost to Finland 5-1 and to Sweden 4-2 but did close out pool play with the Germany victory 5-3. The only thing that keeps me from playing this game a little heavier is the "look ahead" factor. Does Switzerland look forward to playing the USA and let this game slip??? I am going to still ride the Swiss in this spot as they have looked good so far and should look good today against the Belarus team
We finally get the men's Olympic hockey back today with 4 pretty good games. I am still looking over the evening games, but wanted to go ahead and get the first game posted. Best of luck to all today!
Switzerland -1 -105
Switzerland is coming into this game today looking to play better then they did in their victory over Norway. Switzerland is only 1-2 but also coming out of a very tough pool play round with the loses to USA and Canada. They did play both of these teams close losing only 3-1 to USA and 3-2 to Canada in a shootout. With a victory today the Swiss will get a rematch with the USA and they would love that chance to prove they can beat the USA. I still can't figure out why this line is set at only 1 with Belarus not being the best of hockey team. I thought it would have been atleast two points. Belarus did win their last game, but they also beat a Germany team that has been a big disappointment in this Olympics. Belarus lost to Finland 5-1 and to Sweden 4-2 but did close out pool play with the Germany victory 5-3. The only thing that keeps me from playing this game a little heavier is the "look ahead" factor. Does Switzerland look forward to playing the USA and let this game slip??? I am going to still ride the Swiss in this spot as they have looked good so far and should look good today against the Belarus team
ALL COMPS !!!!!!!
Great Lakes Sports
Kansas State at Texas Tech
Play: Kansas State
The Kansas State Wildcats have a very respectable 15-6 ATS record this year, and the Kansas State Wildcats are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the role of an road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this year. The Kansas State Wildcats is also 6-2 ATS when playing on the road this year, and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing on Tuesday's this year. We look for the Kansas State Wildcats to grab the road ATS Win&Cover tonight.
Marc Lawrence
New Orleans Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs return home on a three-game losing streak to host the Hornets as they look to regain their winning ways since the acquisition of Antawn Jamison. After a horrific debut in which he was 0-for-12 from the floor, Jamison bounced back in strong fashion for the Cavs, albeit in a losing effort. the key to tonight's contest is the fact that Cleveland is 25-6 SU and 18-22-1 ATS in games against opponents off a win this season, including 15-2 SU and 14-2-1 ATS when the foe owns a win percentage of .535 or more. That being the case, look for Lebron James and the Cavs to make a major statement here tonight.
Terron Chapman
Tennessee vs. Florida
Play: Tennessee +3
The Tennessee Volunteers (20-6) rebounded from tough losses at Vanderbilt and Kentucky to win over Georgia, and then at South Carolina, 63-55 on Saturday. The Volunteers will look to continue their success in Gainesville Tuesday when they visit the Gators (19-8) in a rematch of a 61-60 Vols win in Knoxville last month.
Tennessee has won 11 out of the last 14 in the series and currently holds a six game win streak. They’ve won four out of the last five in Gainesville, so they’ll have plenty of confidence heading into this one at the O‘ Dome. The Gators are tied with Tennessee in the SEC after a 64-61 win at Ole Miss on Saturday. Three of their final four come against the very best the SEC has to offer, including the season finale in Lexington. The Gators would love nothing more than to avenge that 1-point loss last month Tuesday night, but it won’t be easy against a confident and focused Vols squad.
These two match-up quite well with each other, hence the close meeting the first go around. Neither shoots it well from behind the arc, so points in the paint will be key. The Vols should have an advantage in that area with a surging Wayne Chism. Turnovers will be key as these two combined to force 30 in the first meeting.
The Gators find themselves listed as a 3-point favorite as of this writing and rightfully so given the revenge angle and them playing at home. However, the Vols know what’s at stake and Bruce Pearl should have his team ready and focused on the task at hand. This one could very well come down to the last possession like we saw in the last meeting, so taking the points seems like the way to go. Play On the Tennessee Volunteers for 1 unit.
Sam Martin
New Orleans Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets
Ever since the trade to get Antawn Jamison, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been in a tailspin, losing three straight. That came on the heels of their season-long 13-game winning streak, and while we fully expect Cleveland to notch a win here tonight at home against New Orleans, covering this double-digit number is too much to ask. The Cavs haven?t yet figured out a rotation to fit Jamison in, bringing him off the bench in the first half against Orlando and then starting him in the second half, and now Leon Powe is set to make his season debut for the Cavs, meaning more rotation shuffling is required. We look for Cleveland to commit a ton of turnovers as they figure out their new lineups, and for the Hornets to capitalize on those mistakes, making this a closer game than the linesmaker predicts! 5* Play on New Orleans.
DAVID CHAN
Switzerland @ Belarus
PICK: Switzerland
Switzerland has looked much better than Belarus when the teams have played quality opposition. Switzerland fell 3-1 to the USA, and 3-2 to Canada in a shootout. Belarus was beaten down 5-1 by Finland and 4-2 by Sweden. In the Sweden game, Belarus was behind 3-0 halfway through and the Swedes took their feet off the pedals.
Belarus defeated Germany 5-3, but was outshot 40-17 in the process. It’s too much for Belarus to ask for lightning to strike twice.
Switzerland has the better goaltender and more players with NHL experience. Switzerland had a little trouble with Norway because the Swiss paraded to the penalty box at inopportune moments. If the Swiss can show just a smidgen of discipline here, they’ll win easily.
As always, make sure you know what you've got. This number -210 I've suggested includes any OT or shootout. If it's based on regulation time only you should be laying a touch more. (Overtime/SO makes it a bit more random.) If you need Switzerland to win in regulation, you should be getting -125 or -130.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Illinois @ Michigan
PICK: Illinois +3
After winning five straight, the Illini have dropped two in a row against Ohio State and @Purdue. They have a few quality wins under their belt but are sitting at 17-10 and can ill afford a loss to struggling Michigan here. Illinois needs this game a lot more than the Wolverines and we expect a much bigger effort from the Illini.
Illinois has played well on the road as of late and is 6-3 ATS in their 9 true road games this season. They had a road win @Clemson early in the season and ended Wisconsin’s 18-game home winning streak on Feb. 9th. In their latest game @Purdue, they had a halftime lead and were within one point with under 5:00 minutes to play. But Purdue closed the game on a 14-5 run to sweep the season series. The Boilermakers also outscored the Fighting Illini, 24-3, from the free-throw line.
Entering the season with high expectations, the Wolverines haven’t lived up to any of them. Michigan is just 6-8 in Big Ten play this season and just .500 overall. They have no chance of making the Big Dance at the end of the season (besides an outside shot of winning the Big Ten tournament) and you get the feeling that many of the Michigan players have already cashed in for the season. “We just continue to work at it and know that it’s just great fertilizer for the future,” Beilein said. “It teaches our guys, it teaches me, it teaches everybody how to be a better team.”
After shooting a combined 47 percent from the field and 51 percent from 3-point land in two promising road wins (@Minnesota, @Iowa), Michigan returned to its old ways in their most recent game against Penn State, shooting 35 percent from the field and 21 percent from beyond the arc. The Nittany Lions, also the Big Ten’s worst team, outrebounded the Wolverines by 14 and achieved their first Big Ten win.
Illinois has won four of the last six meetings between these two by an average margin of 13.8 PPG (won by double digits in each game). Illinois is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten. The Wolverines are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten. Go with Illinois plus the points.
JIM FEIST
LOS ANGELES LAKERS / MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
TAKE: OVER
A pair of uptempo teams meet in Memphis. LA has been an under team of late, but they can still run the court with all their depth and athleticism is they are challenged. Memphis is young and loves to run, scoring over 102 ppg, but the allow 103.3 ppg -- 23rd in the NBA. And if you think that defense is bad, they allow .479% shooting by opponents, third worst in the league. You have to allow a lot of lay-ups for a mark like that. They just allowed 94 points to New Jersey, the worst offensive team in the league, and prior to that the Grizzlies had allowed 7 straight opponents to top 100 points. This one has run-and-gun written all over it, play the Lakers/Grizzlies over the total.
EZWINNERS
Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5
Oklahoma City is red hot right now. The Thunder have won nine games in a row and they are 6-3 against the spread in those games. Oklahoma City already owns a road win over Phoenix this season and I expect them to take care of the Suns in this game. Nobody in the league is playing better than the Thunder's Kevin Durant who has elevated his game to another level. With a 32 point performance in the Thunder's 109-107 victory at Minnesota on Sunday night, Durant extended his streak of games with at least 25 points to 28 games. Durant's current streak is the longest since Michael Jordan had 40 straight games of 25 or more points in the 1986-87 season. The Suns will be without their spark plug, point guard Steve Nash who is attempting to heal from the lower abdominal and back pain that has bothered him for nearly four weeks. The Suns are also 0-5-1 against the spread in the last six trips to Oklahoma City. Lay the points.
Brad Diamond Sports
Evansville over Northern Iowa
The Panthers have won 10 straight in the series, 6 straight ATS. However, this is the final home game for Evansville, who despite a recent 82-80 loss to Illinois Chicago is in good spirits for this encounter. In addition, NIU 7’0” center Jordan Eglseder is still under suspension. That gives the Aces another break within this battle. Northern Iowa closes with a 1-6 ATS record against teams with under a .400 winning percentage, an indication that the Panthers could be real flat on Tuesday night out in the Valley.
Brad Diamond Sports
Evansville over Northern Iowa
The Panthers have won 10 straight in the series, 6 straight ATS. However, this is the final home game for Evansville, who despite a recent 82-80 loss to Illinois Chicago is in good spirits for this encounter. In addition, NIU 7’0” center Jordan Eglseder is still under suspension. That gives the Aces another break within this battle. Northern Iowa closes with a 1-6 ATS record against teams with under a .400 winning percentage, an indication that the Panthers could be real flat on Tuesday night out in the Valley.
GoodFella
PHO +7 vs OKL
First off, it should be noted, that Suns PG Steve Nash DID NOT make the trip to Ok City for tonights game--he is resting a sore back & will not play tonight--This is the 2nd meeting between these two clubs this season--as Ok City won AT Phoenix (117-113) as 8.56 pt dogs back on Dec 23rd--so Phoenix has a little same season revenge going--and a HOME loss revenge game at that--BOTH teams come in RED HOT--as the THUNDER are (9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS L/9) games coming into tonight--but the THUNDER have failed to cover in their L/2 games--a OT WIN AT NY--and a 2 pt win AT Minny their last game on Sunday--Tonights game will be just the 2nd HOME game for the THUNDER in 3 weeks tonight &--and they go back on the road to play AT the SPURS tomorrow night--The SUNS are (8-2 SU & ATS L/10) games coming into tonight--& they are coming off a (104-88) blowout HOME win over the Kings on Sunday--and this SUNS team is (5-1 SU & ATS L/6) ROAD games coming into tonights game. SUNS backup PG Dragic is a VERY capable backup and due to NASH being OUT--we have gained a couple more pts on this line--and I expect Dragic to step and take advantage of his chance to start tonight & play very well. OK City is (0-5 ATS L/5) games as a favorite of -5 to -10.5 & th Suns are (4-1 ATS L/5) ROAD games vs a team with a home win% of .600 or higher.--I expect a tight game tonight--and I really think getting the +7 here with the SUNS is rock solid value--as I wouldn't be all that surprised with an outright win over the Thunder tonight--even without Steve Nash--grab the points with the SUNS in this spot guys.
Matt Fargo
3* Evansville Purple Aces
This is a game where Northern Iowa is clearly the superior team but the situational advantages go the other way. The Panthers have already clinched the outright regular season MVC Championship so there is not a whole lot of motivation going into this game. The goal for Northern Iowa, which is the final goal of the regular season, is to win at home on Saturday which would ensure an undefeated season at home. That is big for the players and certainly for the seniors that will be playing in their final home game. The win on Saturday at home over Old Dominion set the school record for most regular season wins at 24 and that makes this game even less of a motivator. This will be the third and final game that 7’0” center Jordan Eglseder will miss due to a suspension for driving under the influence. That is a big break for Evansville. It has been a very disappointing season for the Purple Aces although not a whole lot was expected this year. It was definitely a rebuilding season for Evansville who lost a lot from last season and who do not have a scholarship senior on the entire roster. While Northern Iowa is looking forward to its final home game on Saturday, this is in fact the final home game of the season for the Purple Aces. They are 6-9 at home which is not very good at all but being competitive has been the key. They are only 1-7 in home games within the conference but of those seven losses, four were close throughout while the two non-conference home losses were by only two and four points and the latter came against nationally ranked Butler. The one MVC home win came against Wichita St. which is no slouch as the Shockers are in second place in the conference at 11-5. Possibly even more impressive is the fact that Evansville went to Wichita in its last conference game and took the Shockers, who are undefeated at home, to overtime before losing by six points. It’s obvious that the Purple Aces could have tossed in the towel long ago but that has not been the case as they are still playing hard in every game and that will be no different tonight. As a double-digit underdog, Evansville is 7-3 ATS on the season and it is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games as an underdog between 7.0 and 12.5 points. Northern Iowa meanwhile is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Evansville also falls into a solid situation based on the last game results. Play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are coming off a loss as a favorite going up against an opponent that is coming off a home win. This situation is 98-53 ATS (64.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Evansville Purple Aces
Tom Freese
New Mexico at Colorado St
Colorado St is 15-11 overall and they are 6-6 in Conference Play. Guard Dorian Green scores 12.9 point a game. Forward Andy Ogide scores 11.4 points a game. Forward Travis Franklin scores 10.7 points a game. No other player scores more than 8 points a game. The Rams score just 66 points a game. Colorado St is 0-7 ATS their last 7 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60% and they are 22-46 ATS off an ATS loss. New Mexico is 25-3 overall and 11-2 in Conference Play. Darington Hobson scores 15.5 points a game while shooting 38% from behind the arc. He also grabs 8.8 rebounds a game. Forward Roman Martinez scores 13.8 points and 6.1 rebounds a game. Guard Dairese Gary scores 11.5 points a game. The Lobos shoot 38% from behind the arc and they score 77 points a game. New Mexico is 6-2-1 ATS their last 9 games and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 trips to Fort Collins. PLAY ON NEW MEXICO
Jorge Gonzalez
Los Angeles at Memphis
The Grizzlies are coming off a 104-94 win over the hapless New Jersey Nets but have won just twice in the last eight games. The Lakers have been off for four days ad will have Kobe Bryant back in the starting line-up for the firs time since the All- Star break. Bryant missed five games for the Lakers but was not really missed as his teammates took up the slack winning four of five games, losing only to Boston 87-86. The Grizzlies will be the fired up team in this spot with the NBA Champions coming to town. The Lakers may be a little but rusty and may be looking ahead to playing the new-look Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks have been on fire since the All-Star break winning four of five games and not allowing any team to break the century mark. Memphis are an up and coming team but do not register as a big game in the NBA. Thus, the Lakers have covered just six of the last 21 meetings and the underdog has covered 11 of the last 16 meetings.
PLAY MEMPHIS
VEGAS EXPERTS
New Orleans Hornets at Cleveland Cavs
Kneejerk reaction is to lay the points with the Cavs, who are off their first three-game losing streak in two seasons. However, considering the number, that would be unwise. The LeBrons have failed to cash in five of their last six games overall, including two games where they were laying double-digits against the terrible Knicks and pathetic Nets. The Hornets are cashing at 67%, 28-14 ATS, when taking between 9.5 and 12 points on the road.
Play on: New Orleans
Frank Jordan
Portland Trail Blazers vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -7.5
Portland is coming off a a couple of tough losses as they got blown out by Boston by 20 points Friday and followed that up by blowing a 25 points second half lead to Utah and losing in overtime. The remedy for that is simple the New Jersey Nets who are 3-24 at home and has only 5 wins overall. Portland is playing decent on the road at 13-13 and the addition of Marcus Camby has really helped. Look for Portland to start off this road trip with a big time blow win over New Jersey. Play Portland
Craig Trapp
Tennessee vs. Florida
Play: Over 134.5
Hard to imagine that TEN can win without having this game in the 70's. TEN has to score and get their full court press going to have any chance today. FLA can score in bunches and with the press from TEN they will get a ton of easy ones. Very close game that ends up over fairly easily.
JR O'Donnell
New Orleans Hornets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: New Orleans Hornets +11.5
New Orleans (30-26) at Cleveland (43-14) a few solid facts for the dog here JR O will be bucking the public tonight @ the Quickens Loan center as the Hornets have played some good ball here the last 4 games & we will gladly take the points tonight!! Looking at this Cavs club they own a huge 0-3 ats/straight up mark since the All star break. Prior to the break they ran off 13 straight! We note that the New Orleans Hornets are on a huge Ats Cover streak $$$$$ as they are 7-2 ATS mark the last 9 away! The public will be looking for a blow out @ the Q but not us!! The Hornets fill it up from the charity stripe at 78% vs 72% for the Cavs. Information wins games boys & we will be going ugly tonight with the Dog!! The Hornets have caught fire and they will stay within the 11 tonight.
Vernon Croy
1* Take New Mexico ATS
This pick falls into one of my NCAAB systems and the Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Rams. The Rams are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and they are just 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games when playing a team that has a winning record above .600. The Lobos are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games and they are shooting 42.7% from beyond the arc on the road this season. New Mexico already beat Colorado State by 18 points at home back on January 23rd while out-rebounding them by 18 and I look for the Lobos to dominate the boards again tonight. Take New Mexico.
Great Lakes Sports
Kansas State at Texas Tech
Play: Kansas State
The Kansas State Wildcats have a very respectable 15-6 ATS record this year, and the Kansas State Wildcats are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the role of an road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this year. The Kansas State Wildcats is also 6-2 ATS when playing on the road this year, and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing on Tuesday's this year. We look for the Kansas State Wildcats to grab the road ATS Win&Cover tonight.
Marc Lawrence
New Orleans Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs return home on a three-game losing streak to host the Hornets as they look to regain their winning ways since the acquisition of Antawn Jamison. After a horrific debut in which he was 0-for-12 from the floor, Jamison bounced back in strong fashion for the Cavs, albeit in a losing effort. the key to tonight's contest is the fact that Cleveland is 25-6 SU and 18-22-1 ATS in games against opponents off a win this season, including 15-2 SU and 14-2-1 ATS when the foe owns a win percentage of .535 or more. That being the case, look for Lebron James and the Cavs to make a major statement here tonight.
Terron Chapman
Tennessee vs. Florida
Play: Tennessee +3
The Tennessee Volunteers (20-6) rebounded from tough losses at Vanderbilt and Kentucky to win over Georgia, and then at South Carolina, 63-55 on Saturday. The Volunteers will look to continue their success in Gainesville Tuesday when they visit the Gators (19-8) in a rematch of a 61-60 Vols win in Knoxville last month.
Tennessee has won 11 out of the last 14 in the series and currently holds a six game win streak. They’ve won four out of the last five in Gainesville, so they’ll have plenty of confidence heading into this one at the O‘ Dome. The Gators are tied with Tennessee in the SEC after a 64-61 win at Ole Miss on Saturday. Three of their final four come against the very best the SEC has to offer, including the season finale in Lexington. The Gators would love nothing more than to avenge that 1-point loss last month Tuesday night, but it won’t be easy against a confident and focused Vols squad.
These two match-up quite well with each other, hence the close meeting the first go around. Neither shoots it well from behind the arc, so points in the paint will be key. The Vols should have an advantage in that area with a surging Wayne Chism. Turnovers will be key as these two combined to force 30 in the first meeting.
The Gators find themselves listed as a 3-point favorite as of this writing and rightfully so given the revenge angle and them playing at home. However, the Vols know what’s at stake and Bruce Pearl should have his team ready and focused on the task at hand. This one could very well come down to the last possession like we saw in the last meeting, so taking the points seems like the way to go. Play On the Tennessee Volunteers for 1 unit.
Sam Martin
New Orleans Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets
Ever since the trade to get Antawn Jamison, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been in a tailspin, losing three straight. That came on the heels of their season-long 13-game winning streak, and while we fully expect Cleveland to notch a win here tonight at home against New Orleans, covering this double-digit number is too much to ask. The Cavs haven?t yet figured out a rotation to fit Jamison in, bringing him off the bench in the first half against Orlando and then starting him in the second half, and now Leon Powe is set to make his season debut for the Cavs, meaning more rotation shuffling is required. We look for Cleveland to commit a ton of turnovers as they figure out their new lineups, and for the Hornets to capitalize on those mistakes, making this a closer game than the linesmaker predicts! 5* Play on New Orleans.
DAVID CHAN
Switzerland @ Belarus
PICK: Switzerland
Switzerland has looked much better than Belarus when the teams have played quality opposition. Switzerland fell 3-1 to the USA, and 3-2 to Canada in a shootout. Belarus was beaten down 5-1 by Finland and 4-2 by Sweden. In the Sweden game, Belarus was behind 3-0 halfway through and the Swedes took their feet off the pedals.
Belarus defeated Germany 5-3, but was outshot 40-17 in the process. It’s too much for Belarus to ask for lightning to strike twice.
Switzerland has the better goaltender and more players with NHL experience. Switzerland had a little trouble with Norway because the Swiss paraded to the penalty box at inopportune moments. If the Swiss can show just a smidgen of discipline here, they’ll win easily.
As always, make sure you know what you've got. This number -210 I've suggested includes any OT or shootout. If it's based on regulation time only you should be laying a touch more. (Overtime/SO makes it a bit more random.) If you need Switzerland to win in regulation, you should be getting -125 or -130.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Illinois @ Michigan
PICK: Illinois +3
After winning five straight, the Illini have dropped two in a row against Ohio State and @Purdue. They have a few quality wins under their belt but are sitting at 17-10 and can ill afford a loss to struggling Michigan here. Illinois needs this game a lot more than the Wolverines and we expect a much bigger effort from the Illini.
Illinois has played well on the road as of late and is 6-3 ATS in their 9 true road games this season. They had a road win @Clemson early in the season and ended Wisconsin’s 18-game home winning streak on Feb. 9th. In their latest game @Purdue, they had a halftime lead and were within one point with under 5:00 minutes to play. But Purdue closed the game on a 14-5 run to sweep the season series. The Boilermakers also outscored the Fighting Illini, 24-3, from the free-throw line.
Entering the season with high expectations, the Wolverines haven’t lived up to any of them. Michigan is just 6-8 in Big Ten play this season and just .500 overall. They have no chance of making the Big Dance at the end of the season (besides an outside shot of winning the Big Ten tournament) and you get the feeling that many of the Michigan players have already cashed in for the season. “We just continue to work at it and know that it’s just great fertilizer for the future,” Beilein said. “It teaches our guys, it teaches me, it teaches everybody how to be a better team.”
After shooting a combined 47 percent from the field and 51 percent from 3-point land in two promising road wins (@Minnesota, @Iowa), Michigan returned to its old ways in their most recent game against Penn State, shooting 35 percent from the field and 21 percent from beyond the arc. The Nittany Lions, also the Big Ten’s worst team, outrebounded the Wolverines by 14 and achieved their first Big Ten win.
Illinois has won four of the last six meetings between these two by an average margin of 13.8 PPG (won by double digits in each game). Illinois is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten. The Wolverines are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten. Go with Illinois plus the points.
JIM FEIST
LOS ANGELES LAKERS / MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
TAKE: OVER
A pair of uptempo teams meet in Memphis. LA has been an under team of late, but they can still run the court with all their depth and athleticism is they are challenged. Memphis is young and loves to run, scoring over 102 ppg, but the allow 103.3 ppg -- 23rd in the NBA. And if you think that defense is bad, they allow .479% shooting by opponents, third worst in the league. You have to allow a lot of lay-ups for a mark like that. They just allowed 94 points to New Jersey, the worst offensive team in the league, and prior to that the Grizzlies had allowed 7 straight opponents to top 100 points. This one has run-and-gun written all over it, play the Lakers/Grizzlies over the total.
EZWINNERS
Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5
Oklahoma City is red hot right now. The Thunder have won nine games in a row and they are 6-3 against the spread in those games. Oklahoma City already owns a road win over Phoenix this season and I expect them to take care of the Suns in this game. Nobody in the league is playing better than the Thunder's Kevin Durant who has elevated his game to another level. With a 32 point performance in the Thunder's 109-107 victory at Minnesota on Sunday night, Durant extended his streak of games with at least 25 points to 28 games. Durant's current streak is the longest since Michael Jordan had 40 straight games of 25 or more points in the 1986-87 season. The Suns will be without their spark plug, point guard Steve Nash who is attempting to heal from the lower abdominal and back pain that has bothered him for nearly four weeks. The Suns are also 0-5-1 against the spread in the last six trips to Oklahoma City. Lay the points.
Brad Diamond Sports
Evansville over Northern Iowa
The Panthers have won 10 straight in the series, 6 straight ATS. However, this is the final home game for Evansville, who despite a recent 82-80 loss to Illinois Chicago is in good spirits for this encounter. In addition, NIU 7’0” center Jordan Eglseder is still under suspension. That gives the Aces another break within this battle. Northern Iowa closes with a 1-6 ATS record against teams with under a .400 winning percentage, an indication that the Panthers could be real flat on Tuesday night out in the Valley.
Brad Diamond Sports
Evansville over Northern Iowa
The Panthers have won 10 straight in the series, 6 straight ATS. However, this is the final home game for Evansville, who despite a recent 82-80 loss to Illinois Chicago is in good spirits for this encounter. In addition, NIU 7’0” center Jordan Eglseder is still under suspension. That gives the Aces another break within this battle. Northern Iowa closes with a 1-6 ATS record against teams with under a .400 winning percentage, an indication that the Panthers could be real flat on Tuesday night out in the Valley.
GoodFella
PHO +7 vs OKL
First off, it should be noted, that Suns PG Steve Nash DID NOT make the trip to Ok City for tonights game--he is resting a sore back & will not play tonight--This is the 2nd meeting between these two clubs this season--as Ok City won AT Phoenix (117-113) as 8.56 pt dogs back on Dec 23rd--so Phoenix has a little same season revenge going--and a HOME loss revenge game at that--BOTH teams come in RED HOT--as the THUNDER are (9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS L/9) games coming into tonight--but the THUNDER have failed to cover in their L/2 games--a OT WIN AT NY--and a 2 pt win AT Minny their last game on Sunday--Tonights game will be just the 2nd HOME game for the THUNDER in 3 weeks tonight &--and they go back on the road to play AT the SPURS tomorrow night--The SUNS are (8-2 SU & ATS L/10) games coming into tonight--& they are coming off a (104-88) blowout HOME win over the Kings on Sunday--and this SUNS team is (5-1 SU & ATS L/6) ROAD games coming into tonights game. SUNS backup PG Dragic is a VERY capable backup and due to NASH being OUT--we have gained a couple more pts on this line--and I expect Dragic to step and take advantage of his chance to start tonight & play very well. OK City is (0-5 ATS L/5) games as a favorite of -5 to -10.5 & th Suns are (4-1 ATS L/5) ROAD games vs a team with a home win% of .600 or higher.--I expect a tight game tonight--and I really think getting the +7 here with the SUNS is rock solid value--as I wouldn't be all that surprised with an outright win over the Thunder tonight--even without Steve Nash--grab the points with the SUNS in this spot guys.
Matt Fargo
3* Evansville Purple Aces
This is a game where Northern Iowa is clearly the superior team but the situational advantages go the other way. The Panthers have already clinched the outright regular season MVC Championship so there is not a whole lot of motivation going into this game. The goal for Northern Iowa, which is the final goal of the regular season, is to win at home on Saturday which would ensure an undefeated season at home. That is big for the players and certainly for the seniors that will be playing in their final home game. The win on Saturday at home over Old Dominion set the school record for most regular season wins at 24 and that makes this game even less of a motivator. This will be the third and final game that 7’0” center Jordan Eglseder will miss due to a suspension for driving under the influence. That is a big break for Evansville. It has been a very disappointing season for the Purple Aces although not a whole lot was expected this year. It was definitely a rebuilding season for Evansville who lost a lot from last season and who do not have a scholarship senior on the entire roster. While Northern Iowa is looking forward to its final home game on Saturday, this is in fact the final home game of the season for the Purple Aces. They are 6-9 at home which is not very good at all but being competitive has been the key. They are only 1-7 in home games within the conference but of those seven losses, four were close throughout while the two non-conference home losses were by only two and four points and the latter came against nationally ranked Butler. The one MVC home win came against Wichita St. which is no slouch as the Shockers are in second place in the conference at 11-5. Possibly even more impressive is the fact that Evansville went to Wichita in its last conference game and took the Shockers, who are undefeated at home, to overtime before losing by six points. It’s obvious that the Purple Aces could have tossed in the towel long ago but that has not been the case as they are still playing hard in every game and that will be no different tonight. As a double-digit underdog, Evansville is 7-3 ATS on the season and it is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games as an underdog between 7.0 and 12.5 points. Northern Iowa meanwhile is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Evansville also falls into a solid situation based on the last game results. Play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are coming off a loss as a favorite going up against an opponent that is coming off a home win. This situation is 98-53 ATS (64.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Evansville Purple Aces
Tom Freese
New Mexico at Colorado St
Colorado St is 15-11 overall and they are 6-6 in Conference Play. Guard Dorian Green scores 12.9 point a game. Forward Andy Ogide scores 11.4 points a game. Forward Travis Franklin scores 10.7 points a game. No other player scores more than 8 points a game. The Rams score just 66 points a game. Colorado St is 0-7 ATS their last 7 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60% and they are 22-46 ATS off an ATS loss. New Mexico is 25-3 overall and 11-2 in Conference Play. Darington Hobson scores 15.5 points a game while shooting 38% from behind the arc. He also grabs 8.8 rebounds a game. Forward Roman Martinez scores 13.8 points and 6.1 rebounds a game. Guard Dairese Gary scores 11.5 points a game. The Lobos shoot 38% from behind the arc and they score 77 points a game. New Mexico is 6-2-1 ATS their last 9 games and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 trips to Fort Collins. PLAY ON NEW MEXICO
Jorge Gonzalez
Los Angeles at Memphis
The Grizzlies are coming off a 104-94 win over the hapless New Jersey Nets but have won just twice in the last eight games. The Lakers have been off for four days ad will have Kobe Bryant back in the starting line-up for the firs time since the All- Star break. Bryant missed five games for the Lakers but was not really missed as his teammates took up the slack winning four of five games, losing only to Boston 87-86. The Grizzlies will be the fired up team in this spot with the NBA Champions coming to town. The Lakers may be a little but rusty and may be looking ahead to playing the new-look Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks have been on fire since the All-Star break winning four of five games and not allowing any team to break the century mark. Memphis are an up and coming team but do not register as a big game in the NBA. Thus, the Lakers have covered just six of the last 21 meetings and the underdog has covered 11 of the last 16 meetings.
PLAY MEMPHIS
VEGAS EXPERTS
New Orleans Hornets at Cleveland Cavs
Kneejerk reaction is to lay the points with the Cavs, who are off their first three-game losing streak in two seasons. However, considering the number, that would be unwise. The LeBrons have failed to cash in five of their last six games overall, including two games where they were laying double-digits against the terrible Knicks and pathetic Nets. The Hornets are cashing at 67%, 28-14 ATS, when taking between 9.5 and 12 points on the road.
Play on: New Orleans
Frank Jordan
Portland Trail Blazers vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -7.5
Portland is coming off a a couple of tough losses as they got blown out by Boston by 20 points Friday and followed that up by blowing a 25 points second half lead to Utah and losing in overtime. The remedy for that is simple the New Jersey Nets who are 3-24 at home and has only 5 wins overall. Portland is playing decent on the road at 13-13 and the addition of Marcus Camby has really helped. Look for Portland to start off this road trip with a big time blow win over New Jersey. Play Portland
Craig Trapp
Tennessee vs. Florida
Play: Over 134.5
Hard to imagine that TEN can win without having this game in the 70's. TEN has to score and get their full court press going to have any chance today. FLA can score in bunches and with the press from TEN they will get a ton of easy ones. Very close game that ends up over fairly easily.
JR O'Donnell
New Orleans Hornets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: New Orleans Hornets +11.5
New Orleans (30-26) at Cleveland (43-14) a few solid facts for the dog here JR O will be bucking the public tonight @ the Quickens Loan center as the Hornets have played some good ball here the last 4 games & we will gladly take the points tonight!! Looking at this Cavs club they own a huge 0-3 ats/straight up mark since the All star break. Prior to the break they ran off 13 straight! We note that the New Orleans Hornets are on a huge Ats Cover streak $$$$$ as they are 7-2 ATS mark the last 9 away! The public will be looking for a blow out @ the Q but not us!! The Hornets fill it up from the charity stripe at 78% vs 72% for the Cavs. Information wins games boys & we will be going ugly tonight with the Dog!! The Hornets have caught fire and they will stay within the 11 tonight.
Vernon Croy
1* Take New Mexico ATS
This pick falls into one of my NCAAB systems and the Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Rams. The Rams are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and they are just 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games when playing a team that has a winning record above .600. The Lobos are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games and they are shooting 42.7% from beyond the arc on the road this season. New Mexico already beat Colorado State by 18 points at home back on January 23rd while out-rebounding them by 18 and I look for the Lobos to dominate the boards again tonight. Take New Mexico.
Insider Angles
The Tennessee Volunteers may be having a bad season against the spread at just 10-12-1, but they are still winning games on the court and that makes them dangerous underdogs when they visit the Florida Gators Tuesday.
The Vols are now 20-6 on the season, and they have even picked up their play on the road lately including a nice 63-55 win at South Carolina on Saturday. Tennessee has also won the last six head-to-head meetings with the Gators, with two of those wins coming here in Gainesville. The Volunteers are 5-2 straight up in their last seven games with the losses coming at Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and with all due respect to Florida, this assignment seems easier.
Unlike past seasons when they tried to run teams off the floor, this Tennessee team actually plays excellent defense, holding opponents to just 39.5 percent shooting overall and 40.9 percent on the road. In fact, they rank 13 in the entire country in defensive efficiency, allowing only .874 points per possession.
Comparatively, although the raw statistics say that the Florida defense is close to the Volunteers, allowing foes to shoot 41.0 percent overall, the Gators rank much lower in defensive efficiency at only 57. This is because Tennessee faced a much tougher non-conference schedule, making their numbers truer than those of Florida.
Look for the Vols to continue their dominance in this head-to-head series for one more game, pulling the mild upset here.
NCAA Tuesday Pick: Tennessee +3
The Tennessee Volunteers may be having a bad season against the spread at just 10-12-1, but they are still winning games on the court and that makes them dangerous underdogs when they visit the Florida Gators Tuesday.
The Vols are now 20-6 on the season, and they have even picked up their play on the road lately including a nice 63-55 win at South Carolina on Saturday. Tennessee has also won the last six head-to-head meetings with the Gators, with two of those wins coming here in Gainesville. The Volunteers are 5-2 straight up in their last seven games with the losses coming at Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and with all due respect to Florida, this assignment seems easier.
Unlike past seasons when they tried to run teams off the floor, this Tennessee team actually plays excellent defense, holding opponents to just 39.5 percent shooting overall and 40.9 percent on the road. In fact, they rank 13 in the entire country in defensive efficiency, allowing only .874 points per possession.
Comparatively, although the raw statistics say that the Florida defense is close to the Volunteers, allowing foes to shoot 41.0 percent overall, the Gators rank much lower in defensive efficiency at only 57. This is because Tennessee faced a much tougher non-conference schedule, making their numbers truer than those of Florida.
Look for the Vols to continue their dominance in this head-to-head series for one more game, pulling the mild upset here.
NCAA Tuesday Pick: Tennessee +3
VR’s Morning Moves - Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Report Status: TUESDAY FEB 23rd, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on WED 2-24-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTIONS for TUESDAY FEB 23rd, 2010
HANDICAPPING : PART 1 = “SMALL BOARDS vs. BIG BOARDS”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…Yesterday we got another perfect example of just how important having “Outs” actually is for a winning sports bettor…Because once again we saw how much of an impact getting the best price possible will have on your bottom line…
Now even though we were able to get a PUSH on our Monday Wager…the bottom line is that if you waited around and didn’t try to secure the best price, there was a chance you lost by the hook (½ Point)…More importantly, and the reason that I am extremely disappointed with myself this morning…is because I should have actually WON my bet…
Because during the hour that I was working on editing & publishing Monday’s Newsletter…CRIS was offering the game at DALLAS -8.5.…And they did so for an entire hour before another Wiseguy saw the Value and took advantage…
Obviously, I wouldn’t have passed it along for “grading” purposes to you at -8.5...But I can’t stress it enough that I am a Professional Sports Bettor before anything else…So my main goal isn’t to have a marketable record to benefit sales…instead, it’s to simply make MONEY…And I would much rather take a loss or a push on my record…if I’m able to actually win “real” money…
Just so you know, because I am sure that many of you keep records…I just grade it exactly like the sports books do when I push…And that is as a “No Bet”…As if the wager wasn’t even made because in reality, that’s how it turns out as far as my Bankroll is concerned…And my Bankroll is always going to be my main concern…So we head into Tuesday, with a “13-7” Overall Record…and are “7-2” on Personal Plays…
For my Premium Subscribers…I have Isolated an NBA 3* TRUE STEAM BETfor Tonight’s Card…We are on a 73% ATS “True Steam” Run…and are also on a “5-0” NBA Run…So we’ll go ahead and see if we can cash in on this Big Syndicate Position that my numbers support big-time…
Now let’s get on to today’s topic…Because it’s something that I’ve actually been asked about many times…And since I have had to experience it from a bookmakers’, runners’, & pro bettors’ perspective…I believe that I have some accurate opinions on the topic…Now keep in mind, since I’m not an official odds maker, even though I create my own lines and am damn good at it…lol…I won’t be able to tell you exactly how they feel…But with that said, after looking at the numbers they put up for BOTH (Small & Large), everyday for over 20 years…I think I have a good idea on their approach…
For starters, we are talking about sports that get played everyday (NBA, CBB, MLB, NHL)…
The odds makers are forced to approach both, very differently…Simply for the reason that they don’t have as much time to put into each match-up when there are 40 games on the board, as they do when there are only 10...
This means that they are forced to use their “Power Ratings” as the only guide much more for those “Big Boards”…Meaning, they see what their numbers show when you subtract TEAM A’s Rating from TEAM B’s…then they add in the already established “Home Court/Field Edge”…And finally look for any possible injury or weather factors to consider…and create their line…
And I have found that on the days we have Big Boards, we are usually faced with the odds makers’ version of a “True Line” (Discussed in Previous Newsletter)…Which means that we will find less positions that offer value based on “Public Perception”…and instead, find positions where they are simply wrong…
Many times, it’s on these type of boards that the books have less balanced action, and because of that the market becomes very inefficient, and ultimately opens the door for more middles and scalps…Plus, these are the kind of boards that the bookmakers really depend on their “edge” (11 to Win 10) because they are forced to actually take a position on many games…And these are also the type of boards that we see a much higher % of games have line-moves…
As a “runner” it was on these days that we would take a lot more positions for the Outfits that we worked for…But not always for the purpose of keeping it…Instead, many times we would then come back and attempt a middle on the game…And believe it or not, ultimately be left with less “True Positions” when we were finished working…
On “Small Boards”…I have found that the odds makers have much more time to really break down a match-up before sending out their price on the game…This means that they were more prone to factor in “public perception” and skew their lines to attempt to attract 2-way action…Even at the cost of giving the Wiseguys the best of it on certain “Prime-Time” games…When they were certain that the public would be betting the other way…And this would ultimately allow for balance, which is what the bookmakers hope their odds makers can accomplish…These type of days we usually see less line-moves…but also some significant ones because the Outfits are taking some very BIG positions on those games where the anticipated “public“ money don‘t come in as planned…
For Wednesday’s Newsletter, I will go ahead and cover some of the ways that handicappers and sports bettors can take advantage of each…But today, I wanted to cover how I believe the odds makers are forced to approach each, and also how the Betting Syndicates look at them differently…
The bottom line is that just like we as handicappers have less time to work on each match-up…and that may look like a huge disadvantage…The odds makers and bookmakers also have less time to work on them as well…And actually even less time to come up with a price because they put their lines up many times the night before, and the rest early in the morning…But we have the option of waiting until just before game-time to take our official positions…So that’s a trade-off that I’ll take everyday…
More importantly, I want you to get the notion out of your mind that these odds makers are some “God-Like” figures who know more than anyone else…Or have some super system or super computer to come out with “unbeatable” lines…Because that’s just not the case…Keep in mind, that there is a lot more money in beating the number than there is in creating it…I can guarantee you that…So if they were that efficient at it, believe me, they would be on the other side trying to beat the books…not working for them…I plan on writing a future Newsletter on this topic, so I won’t go into it right now…But I believe you will be surprised at what I have to say on this matter…
Finally, I hope that gives you a clearer understanding of “Small Boards vs. Big Boards”…And we will cover some of the ways to take advantage of each in the morning…Thanks again for your continued support, and best of luck…Vegas-Runner.
LINE PREDICTION :
1.) 504 MIAMI HEAT -6.5
This line opened up at 6.5 and shops like BETUS still haven’t adjusted yet because they don’t cater to Wiseguys…But we’ve already seen other shops like OLYMPIC & CRIS go to -7 after getting some Outfit money on Miami…Now this may not be a “True Position” for the Syndicates…But I do believe that it will offer them the opportunity to get out in front of the Betting Market…Because as the day progresses, this is one side that will definitely attract plenty of “Public” money…So the only way this will drop, is if the Outfits send out a “Buy-Order” on MINNY…and a big one at that…Which will at the very least, give us a clear view at their intentions and reasons for manipulations earlier in the day…VR
2.) 533-534 UNDER 158 KAN ST/TEX TECH
I saw that PINNY had opened this Total the highest, at 158.5 and took some immediate money on the Under, which forced the adjustment to where it is now…158 all across the board…But after speaking to some “runners” already this morning…the UNDER 158 is on their sheet and some expect the order will be executed eventually…Now after looking at the match-up myself, I don’t think that the public will be able to bail the books out by going Over…So we should see an adjustment made if the Wiseguys get to the window with this wager…VR
3.) 515-516 UNDER 217 PHIL/GOLD ST
Even though we should see the Betting Public back the OVER in this match-up...I have already been informed that the Wiseguys will be sending out a "Buy-Order" on the Under sometime today...which should definitely force an adjusment downwards...Reason being, this match-up shouldn't attract too much Public Money...and therefore, the books should be forced to adjust in favor of the Outfits for this one...More importantly, the fact that the Betting Syndicates didn't sit back and wait for the public to possibly help get them an even better number to go Under, tells me this is a position that they "Truly" believe has value...VR
Tue, 02/23/10 - 7:00 PM VR's Morning Moves | CBB Sides
double-dime bet 526 Michigan -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 525 Illinois
Analysis:
** CBB MORNING MOVES 2* BOOKIE BET **
I agree completely with the boomaker source that gave me this position...In fact, this was already on the list of plays I was going to try and confirm throughout the day, based on "Line-Value" alone...But when he told me that his book had already taken plenty of public money on Illinois...and even more on Illinois Teasers and even ML wagers...but that he's gone ahead and adjusted his line up to -3 because a couple of his Wiseguys already bet Michigan...then I knew I could go ahead and confirm the position now...Especially since there are still -2.5's out there...And more may go to -3 if the Outfits step out on this side again later today...
The fact that Michigan just lost to PSU as a -8.5 home fav...and needed OT to beat Iowa before that...has allowed the oddsmakers to factor in "Public Perception" more heavily...and offer a "Fair Line" as opposed to a "True Line"...to attract split money...The spilt money though will come in the form of the recreational bettors taking Illinois...while the Wiseguys lay the points with Michigan...
And tonight...I'll go ahead and follow our Bookmaker source, and be on the side of the Wiseguys for our 2* "Morning Move"...VR
Report Status: TUESDAY FEB 23rd, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on WED 2-24-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTIONS for TUESDAY FEB 23rd, 2010
HANDICAPPING : PART 1 = “SMALL BOARDS vs. BIG BOARDS”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…Yesterday we got another perfect example of just how important having “Outs” actually is for a winning sports bettor…Because once again we saw how much of an impact getting the best price possible will have on your bottom line…
Now even though we were able to get a PUSH on our Monday Wager…the bottom line is that if you waited around and didn’t try to secure the best price, there was a chance you lost by the hook (½ Point)…More importantly, and the reason that I am extremely disappointed with myself this morning…is because I should have actually WON my bet…
Because during the hour that I was working on editing & publishing Monday’s Newsletter…CRIS was offering the game at DALLAS -8.5.…And they did so for an entire hour before another Wiseguy saw the Value and took advantage…
Obviously, I wouldn’t have passed it along for “grading” purposes to you at -8.5...But I can’t stress it enough that I am a Professional Sports Bettor before anything else…So my main goal isn’t to have a marketable record to benefit sales…instead, it’s to simply make MONEY…And I would much rather take a loss or a push on my record…if I’m able to actually win “real” money…
Just so you know, because I am sure that many of you keep records…I just grade it exactly like the sports books do when I push…And that is as a “No Bet”…As if the wager wasn’t even made because in reality, that’s how it turns out as far as my Bankroll is concerned…And my Bankroll is always going to be my main concern…So we head into Tuesday, with a “13-7” Overall Record…and are “7-2” on Personal Plays…
For my Premium Subscribers…I have Isolated an NBA 3* TRUE STEAM BETfor Tonight’s Card…We are on a 73% ATS “True Steam” Run…and are also on a “5-0” NBA Run…So we’ll go ahead and see if we can cash in on this Big Syndicate Position that my numbers support big-time…
Now let’s get on to today’s topic…Because it’s something that I’ve actually been asked about many times…And since I have had to experience it from a bookmakers’, runners’, & pro bettors’ perspective…I believe that I have some accurate opinions on the topic…Now keep in mind, since I’m not an official odds maker, even though I create my own lines and am damn good at it…lol…I won’t be able to tell you exactly how they feel…But with that said, after looking at the numbers they put up for BOTH (Small & Large), everyday for over 20 years…I think I have a good idea on their approach…
For starters, we are talking about sports that get played everyday (NBA, CBB, MLB, NHL)…
The odds makers are forced to approach both, very differently…Simply for the reason that they don’t have as much time to put into each match-up when there are 40 games on the board, as they do when there are only 10...
This means that they are forced to use their “Power Ratings” as the only guide much more for those “Big Boards”…Meaning, they see what their numbers show when you subtract TEAM A’s Rating from TEAM B’s…then they add in the already established “Home Court/Field Edge”…And finally look for any possible injury or weather factors to consider…and create their line…
And I have found that on the days we have Big Boards, we are usually faced with the odds makers’ version of a “True Line” (Discussed in Previous Newsletter)…Which means that we will find less positions that offer value based on “Public Perception”…and instead, find positions where they are simply wrong…
Many times, it’s on these type of boards that the books have less balanced action, and because of that the market becomes very inefficient, and ultimately opens the door for more middles and scalps…Plus, these are the kind of boards that the bookmakers really depend on their “edge” (11 to Win 10) because they are forced to actually take a position on many games…And these are also the type of boards that we see a much higher % of games have line-moves…
As a “runner” it was on these days that we would take a lot more positions for the Outfits that we worked for…But not always for the purpose of keeping it…Instead, many times we would then come back and attempt a middle on the game…And believe it or not, ultimately be left with less “True Positions” when we were finished working…
On “Small Boards”…I have found that the odds makers have much more time to really break down a match-up before sending out their price on the game…This means that they were more prone to factor in “public perception” and skew their lines to attempt to attract 2-way action…Even at the cost of giving the Wiseguys the best of it on certain “Prime-Time” games…When they were certain that the public would be betting the other way…And this would ultimately allow for balance, which is what the bookmakers hope their odds makers can accomplish…These type of days we usually see less line-moves…but also some significant ones because the Outfits are taking some very BIG positions on those games where the anticipated “public“ money don‘t come in as planned…
For Wednesday’s Newsletter, I will go ahead and cover some of the ways that handicappers and sports bettors can take advantage of each…But today, I wanted to cover how I believe the odds makers are forced to approach each, and also how the Betting Syndicates look at them differently…
The bottom line is that just like we as handicappers have less time to work on each match-up…and that may look like a huge disadvantage…The odds makers and bookmakers also have less time to work on them as well…And actually even less time to come up with a price because they put their lines up many times the night before, and the rest early in the morning…But we have the option of waiting until just before game-time to take our official positions…So that’s a trade-off that I’ll take everyday…
More importantly, I want you to get the notion out of your mind that these odds makers are some “God-Like” figures who know more than anyone else…Or have some super system or super computer to come out with “unbeatable” lines…Because that’s just not the case…Keep in mind, that there is a lot more money in beating the number than there is in creating it…I can guarantee you that…So if they were that efficient at it, believe me, they would be on the other side trying to beat the books…not working for them…I plan on writing a future Newsletter on this topic, so I won’t go into it right now…But I believe you will be surprised at what I have to say on this matter…
Finally, I hope that gives you a clearer understanding of “Small Boards vs. Big Boards”…And we will cover some of the ways to take advantage of each in the morning…Thanks again for your continued support, and best of luck…Vegas-Runner.
LINE PREDICTION :
1.) 504 MIAMI HEAT -6.5
This line opened up at 6.5 and shops like BETUS still haven’t adjusted yet because they don’t cater to Wiseguys…But we’ve already seen other shops like OLYMPIC & CRIS go to -7 after getting some Outfit money on Miami…Now this may not be a “True Position” for the Syndicates…But I do believe that it will offer them the opportunity to get out in front of the Betting Market…Because as the day progresses, this is one side that will definitely attract plenty of “Public” money…So the only way this will drop, is if the Outfits send out a “Buy-Order” on MINNY…and a big one at that…Which will at the very least, give us a clear view at their intentions and reasons for manipulations earlier in the day…VR
2.) 533-534 UNDER 158 KAN ST/TEX TECH
I saw that PINNY had opened this Total the highest, at 158.5 and took some immediate money on the Under, which forced the adjustment to where it is now…158 all across the board…But after speaking to some “runners” already this morning…the UNDER 158 is on their sheet and some expect the order will be executed eventually…Now after looking at the match-up myself, I don’t think that the public will be able to bail the books out by going Over…So we should see an adjustment made if the Wiseguys get to the window with this wager…VR
3.) 515-516 UNDER 217 PHIL/GOLD ST
Even though we should see the Betting Public back the OVER in this match-up...I have already been informed that the Wiseguys will be sending out a "Buy-Order" on the Under sometime today...which should definitely force an adjusment downwards...Reason being, this match-up shouldn't attract too much Public Money...and therefore, the books should be forced to adjust in favor of the Outfits for this one...More importantly, the fact that the Betting Syndicates didn't sit back and wait for the public to possibly help get them an even better number to go Under, tells me this is a position that they "Truly" believe has value...VR
Tue, 02/23/10 - 7:00 PM VR's Morning Moves | CBB Sides
double-dime bet 526 Michigan -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 525 Illinois
Analysis:
** CBB MORNING MOVES 2* BOOKIE BET **
I agree completely with the boomaker source that gave me this position...In fact, this was already on the list of plays I was going to try and confirm throughout the day, based on "Line-Value" alone...But when he told me that his book had already taken plenty of public money on Illinois...and even more on Illinois Teasers and even ML wagers...but that he's gone ahead and adjusted his line up to -3 because a couple of his Wiseguys already bet Michigan...then I knew I could go ahead and confirm the position now...Especially since there are still -2.5's out there...And more may go to -3 if the Outfits step out on this side again later today...
The fact that Michigan just lost to PSU as a -8.5 home fav...and needed OT to beat Iowa before that...has allowed the oddsmakers to factor in "Public Perception" more heavily...and offer a "Fair Line" as opposed to a "True Line"...to attract split money...The spilt money though will come in the form of the recreational bettors taking Illinois...while the Wiseguys lay the points with Michigan...
And tonight...I'll go ahead and follow our Bookmaker source, and be on the side of the Wiseguys for our 2* "Morning Move"...VR
Ferringo
1-Unit Play. Take #537 Hofstra (+11)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #522 Providence (+8.5)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #533 Kansas State (-5.5)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #528 Georgia State (+9.5)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #519 Georgetown (+9)/Northern Iowa (-4.5)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #528 Georgia State (+14.5) /Kansas State (-0.5)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #537 Hofstra (+16)/Providence (+13.5)
1-Unit Play. Take #537 Hofstra (+11)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #522 Providence (+8.5)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #533 Kansas State (-5.5)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #528 Georgia State (+9.5)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #519 Georgetown (+9)/Northern Iowa (-4.5)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #528 Georgia State (+14.5) /Kansas State (-0.5)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #537 Hofstra (+16)/Providence (+13.5)
Johnny Guild
Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 8:00 PM EST.
Phoenix Suns (34-23) at Oklahoma City Thunder (33-21)
The red hot Thunder have won nine straight games, going 6-3 against the spread and won the first meeting of this season against the Suns, 117-113 in Phoenix on Dec. 23.
Look for Oklahoma City and Durant to beat-up on the Suns. Phoenix will have a tough assignment against the surging Thunder, especially without their key player Steve Nash tonight. Nash is suffering with an aching lower back. The Suns are 0-5-1 ATS in the last six clashes in Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5
Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 (Eastern Time)
Time Selections
7:00 PM Louisville Cardinals -3
7:00 PM Syracuse Orange -8.5
8:00 PM Northern Iowa Panthers -10
**NBA 9-16-1 (2-8 last 10)
College Hoops 23-38 (12-25 last 37)
**All numbers since I been tracking him
Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 8:00 PM EST.
Phoenix Suns (34-23) at Oklahoma City Thunder (33-21)
The red hot Thunder have won nine straight games, going 6-3 against the spread and won the first meeting of this season against the Suns, 117-113 in Phoenix on Dec. 23.
Look for Oklahoma City and Durant to beat-up on the Suns. Phoenix will have a tough assignment against the surging Thunder, especially without their key player Steve Nash tonight. Nash is suffering with an aching lower back. The Suns are 0-5-1 ATS in the last six clashes in Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5
Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 (Eastern Time)
Time Selections
7:00 PM Louisville Cardinals -3
7:00 PM Syracuse Orange -8.5
8:00 PM Northern Iowa Panthers -10
**NBA 9-16-1 (2-8 last 10)
College Hoops 23-38 (12-25 last 37)
**All numbers since I been tracking him
Tuesday NCAAB Play- GC
On Tuesday the Bonus Play is on New Mexico. Game 539 at 10:00 eastern. The Lobos are the cream of the crop this year in the Mountain West conference. They have won 10 of 12 vs winning teams with 8 covers including 3 wins as a road favorite in this range. Over the past few seasons they have covered 24 of 34 after allowing 60 or less in their last game. Colorado St has a decent team this year. However they have lost 8 of 9 as a home dog in this range since 1997 and failed to win or cover in the last 6 games they have played vs wining teams. In the series the Rams are just 2-9 straight up and 3-8 against the spread vs the Lobos the past few seasons. Go with New Mexico tonight. On the Tuesday Card I have the NBA Game of the Month backed with a Solid Never before seen cutting edge NBA system which I will share in the writeup. If your looking for that one game to crack hard tonight. This is it. For the Bonus Play take New Mexico. BOL GC
On Tuesday the Bonus Play is on New Mexico. Game 539 at 10:00 eastern. The Lobos are the cream of the crop this year in the Mountain West conference. They have won 10 of 12 vs winning teams with 8 covers including 3 wins as a road favorite in this range. Over the past few seasons they have covered 24 of 34 after allowing 60 or less in their last game. Colorado St has a decent team this year. However they have lost 8 of 9 as a home dog in this range since 1997 and failed to win or cover in the last 6 games they have played vs wining teams. In the series the Rams are just 2-9 straight up and 3-8 against the spread vs the Lobos the past few seasons. Go with New Mexico tonight. On the Tuesday Card I have the NBA Game of the Month backed with a Solid Never before seen cutting edge NBA system which I will share in the writeup. If your looking for that one game to crack hard tonight. This is it. For the Bonus Play take New Mexico. BOL GC
