Mike Hook | CBB Sides Tue, 02/02/10 - 7:00 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 527 Mississippi 11.0 (-105) Bodog vs 528 Kentucky
Analysis: I'm a big fan of Ole Miss today, as i think they are in a great spot today to put quite the scare into the Wildcats. I believe 11 points is far too many today, as i think this game is a 6 point game AT MOST. I love that Mississippi lost their last game to Arkansas in convincing fashion. That was an eye opening loss, similar to what Kentucky went through a few games ago against South Carolina. We all saw how Kentucky responded to that defeat, and i think we will see a similar situation tonight for the Rebels.
Ole Miss is a great team ATS this season, as they are 11-6 ATS to go along with their 16-5 SU record. More importantly, this team gets it done ATS on the road this season, where they are 8-2 ATS away from home this season. To me, this success has happened far too frequently for it to be considered just a coincidence. I believe that a major reason for the road success of thi�s Rebels team can be attributed to their guard play. Guards Chris Warren and Terrico White both average more than 15 PPG, and combine for 31.7 PPG. What i like most about this duo is their EXPERIENCE and LEADERSHIP. This duo has the ball in their hands constantly, and they don't get rattled. This duo has been through so many games, so they won't be intimidated in any environment. Because of their guard play, they are 3-1 ATS as the listed underdog. Today will mark only the 2nd time this season that Ole Miss will be a double digit underdog.
Kentucky is good, really good. I think they are a top 3 team in the nation. But does that mean they are truly 11 points better than another good ranked team? I think not, especially a team built like Ole Miss. Kentucky has a ton of young talent, especially PG John Wall and F Demarcus Cousins. We all saw in the game the Wildcats lost to South Carolina, that Wall didn't play his best. I think he's likely to have his work cut out again tonight against far more experienced guards. With Wall having more struggles than usual tonight, i don't see how this Kentucky team can win this game by double digits. I realize that Kentucky has a few blowout wins in recent games, but if you go back to the season in its entirety, this team has let alot of teams stay close for quite a while. They were a bit lucky not too have been stung a 2nd or 3rd time this season. Kentucky is only 5-7 ATS as a double digit favorite this season. Let's also not forget the free throw shooting of this Wildcats team. They aren't very good to start with, but they are really struggling right now to make their free throws. With confidence an issue, i can easily see Kentucky struggling yet again from the charity stripe.
Bottom line, this game is going to come down to Ole Miss shooting the basketball and being able to put a damper on PG John Wall. Cousins has been a beast, and will likely be so again tonight. But Cousins can't cover this spread just on his antics alone. I think Ole Miss is built perfectly to keep this game close tonight. They have the personnel an the experience to not be scared with their environment tonight. Looking to redeem themselves for their latest loss, i think the Rebels will fire a big performance today. I'm backing the Ole Miss Rebles +11 tonight as my DOUBLE STAR play of the day!