VegasButcher (NBA 56-42 Overall)
Toronto Raptors +3 (1st Half Only)
These two teams faced off last Friday in TOR, as the Cavs won 105 – 91. The average lead throughout the game was +7.4 CLE, so it was a pretty dominant performance throughout. Today, both teams are on a b2b with both coming off wins. Cleveland dominated the short-handed Nets on the road, while Toronto had to grab their win at home in OT. Yesterday, the ‘Royal Family’ attended the Cavs/Nets game in Brooklyn, and there was a lot of hoopla and excitement around it. After the game, LeBron exchanged jerseys and even brought them cupcakes. With all of those distractions yesterday, could there be a bit of a lack of focus early on in this rematch with the Raptors? One thing we do know is that line-value is purely in Toronto’s favor here. They were -4.5 home favorites in the last meeting, and even if you account a point or so for the ‘fatigue factor’ in that one, Toronto should be closer to +3 than +6 tonight. And that’s what they were at home in the first meeting of the season on 11/22.
Dallas Mavericks +3
Dallas is 4-1 ATS as an underdog while Memphis is 7-9 ATS as a favorite. Mavs are also 6-1 ATS against Memphis over the last few seasons and were 4-0 ATS against the Grizzlies last year. The issue could be that Dallas plays at a pretty fast pace, they move the ball well, and they shoot a lot of 3’s. Hmmm. That’s similar to both San Antonio and Houston, two teams that have beaten the Grizz this month already. The Mavs also rank 1st in TO-rate offensively, so they might not be as susceptible to Grizzlies’ on the ball pressure as some other teams. I think Dallas has the depth and the offense to cause issues for this Memphis team and I’d expect a close game here. Vince Carter faces his old mates for the first time in this one by the way.
New York Knicks +6.5
Don’t look now, but the Knicks are on a 3 game winning streak…ATS-winning streak to be exact. They are still on their 8-game losing streak, but are 5-3 ATS, and continue to lose a ton of close games. They lost by 3 to CLE, by 1 to CHA the following night, and by 4 to POR. Now they’ll take on an inconsistent Pelicans squad. New Orleans is 4-7 in their last 11 games, and haven’t won two consecutive games since earlier in November, when they hosted LAL and MIN in two consecutive home games. Their biggest issue has been on the defensive end, were they’ve allowed 99+ points in 11 of the last 15 games. NY can stretch this defense vertically as they have a number of long-range options from the perimeter, which will make it difficult on the Pelicans defensively. NO ranks bottom-10 in 3PT defense, while the Knicks are top-10 in 3PT % on the season. I would expect another close game for NY here against an inconsistent Pelicans squad.
Sacramento Kings +2 (1st Half Only)
For only the 2nd time all season, LA will be a listed ‘favorite’ in a game. They face a Kings team that is on a b2b and playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Still, this feels like to many points for LA to lay, even without Cousins in there for Sacramento. If you bet LA, you are paying a premium to back a really bad team. In the long-run that’s a losing proposition.
Toronto Raptors +3 (1st Half Only)
These two teams faced off last Friday in TOR, as the Cavs won 105 – 91. The average lead throughout the game was +7.4 CLE, so it was a pretty dominant performance throughout. Today, both teams are on a b2b with both coming off wins. Cleveland dominated the short-handed Nets on the road, while Toronto had to grab their win at home in OT. Yesterday, the ‘Royal Family’ attended the Cavs/Nets game in Brooklyn, and there was a lot of hoopla and excitement around it. After the game, LeBron exchanged jerseys and even brought them cupcakes. With all of those distractions yesterday, could there be a bit of a lack of focus early on in this rematch with the Raptors? One thing we do know is that line-value is purely in Toronto’s favor here. They were -4.5 home favorites in the last meeting, and even if you account a point or so for the ‘fatigue factor’ in that one, Toronto should be closer to +3 than +6 tonight. And that’s what they were at home in the first meeting of the season on 11/22.
Dallas Mavericks +3
Dallas is 4-1 ATS as an underdog while Memphis is 7-9 ATS as a favorite. Mavs are also 6-1 ATS against Memphis over the last few seasons and were 4-0 ATS against the Grizzlies last year. The issue could be that Dallas plays at a pretty fast pace, they move the ball well, and they shoot a lot of 3’s. Hmmm. That’s similar to both San Antonio and Houston, two teams that have beaten the Grizz this month already. The Mavs also rank 1st in TO-rate offensively, so they might not be as susceptible to Grizzlies’ on the ball pressure as some other teams. I think Dallas has the depth and the offense to cause issues for this Memphis team and I’d expect a close game here. Vince Carter faces his old mates for the first time in this one by the way.
New York Knicks +6.5
Don’t look now, but the Knicks are on a 3 game winning streak…ATS-winning streak to be exact. They are still on their 8-game losing streak, but are 5-3 ATS, and continue to lose a ton of close games. They lost by 3 to CLE, by 1 to CHA the following night, and by 4 to POR. Now they’ll take on an inconsistent Pelicans squad. New Orleans is 4-7 in their last 11 games, and haven’t won two consecutive games since earlier in November, when they hosted LAL and MIN in two consecutive home games. Their biggest issue has been on the defensive end, were they’ve allowed 99+ points in 11 of the last 15 games. NY can stretch this defense vertically as they have a number of long-range options from the perimeter, which will make it difficult on the Pelicans defensively. NO ranks bottom-10 in 3PT defense, while the Knicks are top-10 in 3PT % on the season. I would expect another close game for NY here against an inconsistent Pelicans squad.
Sacramento Kings +2 (1st Half Only)
For only the 2nd time all season, LA will be a listed ‘favorite’ in a game. They face a Kings team that is on a b2b and playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Still, this feels like to many points for LA to lay, even without Cousins in there for Sacramento. If you bet LA, you are paying a premium to back a really bad team. In the long-run that’s a losing proposition.
Wunderdog Sports Free Pick
Game: Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Time: Tuesday 12/09 8:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Milwaukee +10 (-105)
No team has improved more season-over-season than the Milwaukee Bucks. They posted just a total of 15 wins last season, and already through just 22 games have won 11 this year. They come into this game a .500 team, and a legitimate playoff contender in the East. Oklahoma City is a team beset with injuries, which is reflected heavily in their 7-13 start. They do have Kevin Durant back, but this is far from the team we have seen over the last few years at this point. They are off a struggle vs. Detroit, winning by 2 even with Durant, and have failed to cover any of the three games he has played since his return as the lines are inflated. The Bucks have made their backers a lot of money off a loss as they are 28-11-1 ATS in their last 40 when following a setback. The Thunder are taking it on the chin vs. the Eastern Conference where they are an ugly 2-11 ATS in their last 13. Take the points on Milwaukee.
Game: Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Time: Tuesday 12/09 8:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Milwaukee +10 (-105)
No team has improved more season-over-season than the Milwaukee Bucks. They posted just a total of 15 wins last season, and already through just 22 games have won 11 this year. They come into this game a .500 team, and a legitimate playoff contender in the East. Oklahoma City is a team beset with injuries, which is reflected heavily in their 7-13 start. They do have Kevin Durant back, but this is far from the team we have seen over the last few years at this point. They are off a struggle vs. Detroit, winning by 2 even with Durant, and have failed to cover any of the three games he has played since his return as the lines are inflated. The Bucks have made their backers a lot of money off a loss as they are 28-11-1 ATS in their last 40 when following a setback. The Thunder are taking it on the chin vs. the Eastern Conference where they are an ugly 2-11 ATS in their last 13. Take the points on Milwaukee.
LineCatchers - NBA Milwaukee Bucks + 10
The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, winning just 15 games all last season, the Bucks have already won 11 this year. They come into this game a .500 team, and a very legitimate playoff contender in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee have only registered one win over their last 5 games but they have had a tough stretch of match ups, Houston, Cleveland, Dallas twice and Miami. They could have easily been 3-2 in those games having pushed both Dallas and Cleveland to the final seconds of those games.
Oklahoma City has been offset by numerous injuries to start their 2014 campaign, which is the reason why they have a 7-13 record through 20 games. They do have Kevin Durant back, but his return has only inflated the lines and this Thunder team is being overvalued by the sports books, they have failed to cover any of the three games Durant has played since his return from injury. The Thunder are also on the back of a 3 game road trip and come into tongiths game having gone 2-7 ATS in non-conference match ups.
I believe the value is on the road team in this one, the Bucks have played solid basketball this season and getting 10 points against the Thunder, I will take each day of the week.
The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, winning just 15 games all last season, the Bucks have already won 11 this year. They come into this game a .500 team, and a very legitimate playoff contender in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee have only registered one win over their last 5 games but they have had a tough stretch of match ups, Houston, Cleveland, Dallas twice and Miami. They could have easily been 3-2 in those games having pushed both Dallas and Cleveland to the final seconds of those games.
Oklahoma City has been offset by numerous injuries to start their 2014 campaign, which is the reason why they have a 7-13 record through 20 games. They do have Kevin Durant back, but his return has only inflated the lines and this Thunder team is being overvalued by the sports books, they have failed to cover any of the three games Durant has played since his return from injury. The Thunder are also on the back of a 3 game road trip and come into tongiths game having gone 2-7 ATS in non-conference match ups.
I believe the value is on the road team in this one, the Bucks have played solid basketball this season and getting 10 points against the Thunder, I will take each day of the week.
River City Sharps
OK, you're going to just have to hold your nose on the way to the window with this one, but it's a play that really shows up on about every one of the metrics we use. 1-7 Marist travels to 2-5 Penn and they are getting 11.5 points. Now we completely understand that Marist isn't a good basketball team, but in our humble opinion and that of our models, Penn has NO BUSINESS being favored by 11.5 over anybody! These games are generally very ugly and played in the 60's, which really favors a team covering the double-digit number. Hold your nose and we think Marist covers this number. The Sharps say...
3 UNITS - MARIST (+11.5)
OK, you're going to just have to hold your nose on the way to the window with this one, but it's a play that really shows up on about every one of the metrics we use. 1-7 Marist travels to 2-5 Penn and they are getting 11.5 points. Now we completely understand that Marist isn't a good basketball team, but in our humble opinion and that of our models, Penn has NO BUSINESS being favored by 11.5 over anybody! These games are generally very ugly and played in the 60's, which really favors a team covering the double-digit number. Hold your nose and we think Marist covers this number. The Sharps say...
3 UNITS - MARIST (+11.5)
Dave Essler | CBB Total
dime bet -742 Creighton / 741 S. Dakota – OVER 139.0
Analysis: I suspect this number may come down even a bit more, but I see it as very similar to last nights’ Butler game. South Dakota doesn’t know how to slow down much, and their tiny. Creighton should be able to shoot over them and even go inside, which they don’t do much. When they do get to the line they shoot over 76%. Bottom line for them is that unless they go ice cold from deep, they’ll get to 80. South Dakota should get their 60, especially seeing as how the line is about -16, that’s what they expect. South Dakota also shoot a lot of three pointers, and if Creighton has a weakness it’s defending the perimeter. Creighton NOR South Dakota are great rebounding teams, which mean the potential for more fast break points, and neither team has created a ton of turnovers or turned it over a ton, which also means less wasted possessions. The square over is the play for me.
dime bet -742 Creighton / 741 S. Dakota – OVER 139.0
Analysis: I suspect this number may come down even a bit more, but I see it as very similar to last nights’ Butler game. South Dakota doesn’t know how to slow down much, and their tiny. Creighton should be able to shoot over them and even go inside, which they don’t do much. When they do get to the line they shoot over 76%. Bottom line for them is that unless they go ice cold from deep, they’ll get to 80. South Dakota should get their 60, especially seeing as how the line is about -16, that’s what they expect. South Dakota also shoot a lot of three pointers, and if Creighton has a weakness it’s defending the perimeter. Creighton NOR South Dakota are great rebounding teams, which mean the potential for more fast break points, and neither team has created a ton of turnovers or turned it over a ton, which also means less wasted possessions. The square over is the play for me.
