Dave Malinsky 6*
Bulls
6* Top of the Ticket
REASON FOR PICK: 6* #510 CHICAGO over NEW YORK
One of our favorite situations in all of sports is when we get those rare instances in which a favorite is going to go all-out against a bad opponent. The oddsmakers have a difficult time pricing these games properly because most bad teams are worse than they appear to be, with their scores and statistics getting a boost because often the opposition is coasting against them, especially in the NBA. So tonight we have a line that does not reflect at all the gap between these teams, and also the setting to take full advantage. That means time to step it up.
Yes, the Bulls are only 9-11, but take that with the usual grain of salt for early December – they have already had to take their usual long road trip with the circus in town (this time a seven-game tour), and even without factoring home/away situations they check in at #2 on our schedule ratings. They have also had to play through injuries, which has frustrated the development process, but now not only do they have all hands on deck, but they have the rare setting (for them) of playing back-to-back home games with a couple of practice days in between. They coasted past Washington in the opening salvo for this sequence, leading by as many as 16 points in the fourth quarter, and since they are also off until Friday after this one it means that we see the very best that they have to offer, against an opponent that will allow that best to show.
With a deep corps of talented back-court players the Bulls are at their best when they run, with Derrick Rose (note that his missing practice yesterday was merely a precaution after he needed stitches to close a cut in his arm, and he will be 100 percent here) so adept at finding the open man in transition. And one of those open players tonight will be Luol Deng, who is finally back to full health after missing three games (26 points in Saturday’s win over Washington). Even against a tough schedule Chicago has pushed the pace fast enough to rate #4 on our charting of that part of the game, and now they get to play a team that is #1 in the league in possessions per game. It is part of Mike D’Antoni working more on getting his system in play than winning right now, and in going 3-6 ATS as road underdogs so far we see the difficulty this hodge-podge of a New York roster is going to have in tonight’s role (the Knicks are allowing an unholy 50.3 percent shooting on the road).
While the Bulls are fresh and ready to run for the full 48 minutes, D’Antoni has issues galore here. He was only able to use seven players against Detroit on Sunday afternoon, including Chris Duhon having to go the full 48 minutes for the first time in his career, and with Nate Robinson again not ready to go the Knicks are basically paper-thin. That puts the coach in a bind in terms of playing from behind here, since they have to play at New Jersey on Thursday, losing an hour in the time zone transition to that one. We believe that it could lead to a white flag being raised at some point, as the deeper and more talented Bulls keep running the floor and eventually break this wide open.