Service Plays Tuesday 12/9/08

[SteveMcQueen]

Drew Gordon

Toronto at CLEVELAND -12

Let's make a couple things clear in this match up: First off, the Raptors have NOT responded well to the firing of coach Mitchell. Interim coach Triano has only a couple games under his belt and already the players are questioning his more "defensive" style of play, that values protection of the paint above all else. While that system works just fine in places like Houston and Boston, the Raps just don't have the personnel to play Triano's scheme, and it shows. Heading back out on the road against the hottest team in the NBA is the last thing this team needs!

Speaking of the hottest team in the NBA, the Cavs are on fire, winners of 8 in a row SUATS, and if there's any place you don't want to face them, its at home, where they're 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS this season! Of those 8 straight wins, the Cavs were double-digit home favorites 5 times, and covered each and every one of those match ups! Look guys, if ain't broke, don't fix it, as the Cavs roll to another lopsided home win!

Finally, looking over the series, the Cavs have won 7 straight at Quicken Loans Arena against Toronto, thanks in large part to King James, who's dominated the Raps in the past. With the addition of Mo Williams, the Cavs now have the speed and athletisicm needed to make teams pay for overplaying Lebron. The fact their playing in mid-season form defensively, also bodes well for Cleveland tonight. In the end, the Raptors don't stand a chance, especially considering their defensive struggles (108 ppg allowed L5 games)! Cavs roll!

Take Cleveland BIG over Toronto in this NBA match up.

2♦ CLEVELAND


Drake at IOWA STATE -3

Let me spell it out for you: r-e-v-e-n-g-e! The Cyclones got crushed by Drake 79-44 in Des Moines last season, and trust me when I tell you, they've been waiting patiently for payback tonight at home.

What better place for revenge than in Ames, where the Cyclones are 5-0 SU this season, including an impressive win and cover over Oregon State in their last one (as 10-point favs no less)! How do they do it? The same way they beat down the Beavers with defense, allowing just 56 ppg on 35% shooting at home this season!

Also, don't be fooled by Drake's 4-game win streak either, as 3 of those wins were against cupcakes in non-lined contests, and the only win was on a neutral court against New Mexico. In other words, the Bulldogs have yet to play a "true" road game, and I say they get thoroughly exposed in hostile territory tonight.

Finally, from a match up standpoint, who stops the Cyclones talented F Craig Brackins? While he was solid against Oregon State, he's just one game removed from a 32-point, 16 rebound effort at Northern Iowa, so sleep on the Cyclones bigman at your own risk! Also, expect a better effort from G Diante Garret, who had a sub-par game against the Beavers, and will be looking to redeem himself in front of the home fans.

Bottom line, revenge is a dish best served cold, and the Cyclones have been waiting just over a year to avenge their embarassing loss against the Bulldogs. Tonight is the night, as the Iowa State defense locks down Drake en route to the solid home win and cover.

Take Iowa State over Drake in this college hoops match up.

3♦ IOWA STATE

 

[SteveMcQueen]

seabass

steam play 100* dallas/ san antonio over 189 (3-5 last 8)

 

[thedegen]

Erin Renning leans from radio show:

DET -4.5
DET over
Port under
SA under

 

[thedegen]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

All Star Sports comp. is Minnesota in the NBA.

 

[Fatcat+]

Doc's NBA and NCABB

DOC

4-Unit Play (Totals Game of the Week) Take Atlanta/Houston UNDER


4 Unit Play.Take Iowa State over Drake

 

[MetsFan44]

RAS

Towson +5... 1 Unit

San Francisco +6'... 1 Unit

 

[chuba]

Special K:
Here Are The Picks you have Purchased:

COLLEGE BASKETBALL 20* SUPER K:
523 20*SUPER K - PURDUE BOILERMAKERS

 

[TVC]

MIKE LINEBACK

4 1/2 * Rockets team under 98 1/2

4* Wiz over
4* Atlanta

4* West Virginia

 

[Twisted]

indiancowboy

We have a 5* Selection Today (17-6 Lifetime): Game of the Week:

12-6 last 3 days: 3 Winning Days in a Row. Let's Roll Today:

College Selection to come at Noon:

5* Game of the Week: San Antonio Spurs

3* Milwaukee

3* Atlanta/Houston Over




Virginia Tech -3

61% in College Basketball

8-4 in December.

12-6-1 Last 3 Days with 3 Straight Winning Days:

 

[Fritzz38]

Stephen Nover
NBA - DETROIT PISTONS

 

[savannahslim]

Larry Legend
2-0 YTD

win last night with Orlando.

Tuesday Dec 29

2 plays:
Utah -5
Det -4

 

[GuiseppeDiFiore]

Tuesday 12-9 Service Play

Antonio Rossi Plays:


3* Va Tech -3



YTD 0-0
Units 0.00

 

[printman19]

IC's analysis

Indian Cowboy Write-ups from another site -

We have a 5* Selection Today (17-6 Lifetime): Game of the Week:

12-6 last 3 days: 3 Winning Days in a Row. Let's Roll Today:

College Selection to come at Noon:

5* Game of the Week: San Antonio Spurs

Look, we are 12-6-1 over the last 3 days and we simply cannot be afraid to take shots. I was the same guy that took Memphis ML +1200 at the Lakers last year and the same guy that took the Kings +1140 ML against the Nuggets last year. We cashed on both accounts. Bear in mind I lost two 5* selections last week, but also, bear in mind I am 17-6 Lifetime with these selections and we are up solid profit over the last 3 days as they have all been winning days. Tack on the fact, we have two additional NBA Plays and 1 College Basketball plays, we are in great shape regardless of what happens here. But, I feel strong about it, so we are going to take a shot at a 5* selection more than our usual 3* selection. We are in it for the long run and if you can't handle taking 5* shots throughout the course of the year, I suggest you get some panties. These are two 11-8 teams going at it and it is one of those things that you would have never imagined these teams for a combined record of 22-16 at this point. Dallas beat this team by 17 points on the road but that game was without Manu or Tony Parker so these guys have been itching to play and finally are. Heck, look at what these guys have done since coming back into action against GS and Denver winning 123-88 and 108-91 at Denver. I could easily see the Spurs getting plenty of revenge here from an earlier loss at home as it is all about Manu and Tony Parker avenging losses to those teams who they had to sit down and watch on the bench while their team was getting spanked. Well, now, they don't. They are the ones that are beating down other teams and the Mavs are next on the hit list. Note, that Howard is questionable, but this is irrelevant to me considering that the Spurs will base their entire effort on defense and notice they gave up just 91 points to Denver on the road and 88 points to Golden State at home. Bottom line is you have the Spurs with revenge and they just spanked the Warriors and Denver and they will likely spank the Mavericks here. This is the same Mavs team that beat the Clippers by a bucket at home and the Hawks by a bucket at home. They will not be so fortunate against these Spurs. The Spurs are 5-1 ATS against the Western Conference of late and the Mavs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.


3* Milwaukee

There are no injuries to report in this game but note the Bucks are the second best team in the NBA when it comes to ATS covers as they are 15-6 ATS. They are only second to the Cavs who are 16-4 ATS in the NBA. Ironically, both teams come out of the Eastern Conference Central Division. . Over 70% favor Phoenix here, but this is a game that Milwaukee can win outright. Heck, with the likes of Jefferson, Bogut and Redd this team is competitive and playing sound defense. They also have revenge against Phoenix from an earlier season 8 point loss to them as well. Milwaukee has covered 7 of their last 9 games and Phoenix has lost their last 8 of 10 Covers. In short, Milwaukee is a team that is been on a covering spree, they have revenge here from an earlier loss, they are one of the best cover teams in the NBA, they come off a loss here and frankly, I don't think Phoenix is all that good htis year as I think Porter is a terrible coach and that is clearly evident by this team having a 2-8 ATS mark of late as well. I look for Milwaukee to bounce-back here as they have a great shot at winning this baby outright as their defense has been one of the best in the league and one of the biggest dissappointments this year has indeed been the Suns defense. I look for a tight game in which Phoenix either wins by 2-4 points or loses this baby outrigh today.

3* Atlanta/Houston Over

Note, that Horoford is questionable for this game. Currently, the betting is closed for this game but Houston does come off a loss at Memphis so they are obviously not in a good mood. On top of that, Atlanta comes off a loss at Dallas by a bucket so they will look to rebound as well. Look, this is a great opportunity for this game to go over for several reasons. For one, the Rockets were pitiful on offense at Memphis. This team couldn't shoot worth a lick in the first half but did manage to put up 97 points when all was said and done. But, the Rockets are familiar with their home court and they put up 103 against the Clippers and Spurs. Remember, Tracy McGrady is still gone until late December so this team will just have to do without him. Houston has played 5 straight overs and the Hawks are likely to be competitive and consequently this game I believe is likely to go over. Remember, the Rockets shot terribly their last game and on that front will look to bounce-back as well. The over is 5-1-2 for the Hawks following a loss and the over is 4-0 for the Rockets following an ATS loss as well.


Virginia Tech -3

61% in College Basketball

8-4 in December.

12-6-1 Last 3 Days with 3 Straight Winning Days:

Let's Keep Rolling:

I originally put up the line as -5 but it is obviously wrong as it currently sits at -3 in most books. Look, Va Tech is a much better team than people give them credit for. Note, that this is a rare public favorite I am taking but Va Tech is the same team that beat Navy on the road by 9, barely lost o top 25 Wisconsin and lost to Xavier in overtime by 1 point. UGA comes off an ugly, ugly loss to Illinois where they were defeated 42-76 and undoubtedly this team will have a better effort today. Having said that, I think UGA simply lacks the consistency. UGA has yet to lose at home this year, but the toughest competition they have faced is Santa Clara at home. Va Tech has faced some incredibly tough teams including Wisconsin, Xavier and Seton Hall. This team even comfortably beat a Fairfield team that is very good this year out of the Metro as well. It is simply too tempting with this lay to not ride the better more balanced Va Tech team here are 4-1 ATS over their last 5 road games while UGA is 1-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.

Yesterday's Analysis: 2-1

4 Unit Play (POD). Take Over 193 between Houston Rockets @ Memphis Grizzlies (Winner)
This is not a mistake, this is meant for a 4 unit play. I am debating whether or not to do 4 units for my POD and 3 units for all of my regular plays and will consider this and am trying this out. But, as per this play, I do like the 4 unit wager as compared to the 3 unit wager. I think the over is a solid play here for several reason here. Notice more than 75% favor Houston here, that itself is scary. Houston beat this team 82-71 earlier this year so this is a revenge game for Memphis. That game went well under the posted total but Houston can play overs when they face competitive games on the road - take a look at the Denver, Miami, Oklahoma City and Orlando games on the road. Memphis lost by 19 points on the road to New Orleans as they return home as so they are obviously not in a good mood. Memphis did come off that nice win against the Clippers and since they haven't won many games this year, maybe it was a let down in the pscyhe. The bottom line is Houston has gone over the last 7 out of 8 road games, they have gone over the last 5 road games and Memphis is 4-0 when facing a team with a winning % of greater than 60%. I expect Memphis to be competitive in this game and consequently expect this game to go over the posted total.

3 Units: San Jose State +9.5 over San Diego (Outright Winner)

This is exactly why you do the Research each and every day. It is to find such value as this ever day. Did you know that San Diego lost their leading scorer for the year? His name is Brandon Johnson and it is a huge loss for this team this year. San Diego is a competent team, but it can be seen that this team is more defensive now with the loss of Johnson. After all, this team put up 46 points at San Diego State. The total for this game is set at 114. Hence, we are getting 9.5 points on a team that is in tact, who comes off a 1 possession loss to Santa Clara and hence on a bounce-back, who has revenge aginst this San Diego team from last year's loss and San Diego is still reeling from their leading scorer going down. Gyno Pomare and Chris Lewis are going to have to pick up the slack at home and I'm not saying they won't win this game, but I am saying they don't have all their wheels in bearing completely yet and San Jose State comes of their own respectivce loss and will make this a great ballgame. While over 60% favors San Diego, this is another solid fade as this game does not take into account the injury nor the fact that San Jose State can play some solid defense of their own. I have SJS losing by just 3 in this game. I will take the 9.5.

3 Units: OKC over Golden State (Loss)

Note, that Jackson is questionable for this game as is Maggatte. So you wonder why nearly 80% are riding the jock straps of the Warriors and it makes you amused. Look, OKC has been playing much better basketball as they come off a competitive game against Orlando and are on an ATS run that has quietly gone unnoticed. GS is still extremely young and they are not led by the veteran leadership they once had. Thus, the Monte Ellis, Baron Davis leadership is gone as Ellis is still hurt - not to mention Richardson is no longer there as well. This team is led with young guys who have to go on the road to get it done and they might not even have Jackson or Maggatte suiting up for this baby. The only reason why I was wary of choosing the Thunder over the Warriors is the fact that this team lost by 30+ to the Spurs on the road recently and Don Nelson will likely get it his players fired up, but having said that, I think OKC is due for a breakout game as they have been playing great competitive basketball lately and they might just win this game by DD as it comes down to pure shooting and I think the Warriors if they don't have either Maggatte or Jackson are in a lot of trouble this game. But, it all depends on their injury status. Look, the bottom line here, OKC is playing great basketball, they were competitive against Miami, Orlando and Charlotte all on the road and covered. They beat Memphis Outright on the road. They have covered their last 7 of 8 and, they have solid new coaching and they will get it done against an injured GS squad. Besides 85% of the public I believe will get buried today taking GS foolishly not reading the injury status as to why GS is actually catching points rather than laying points.

 

[savannahslim]

fitty cent --did Akmens have any hockey tonight?

 

[Twisted]

Dr. Bob, paid and confirmed.


NBA
2 Star Selection
Milwaukee (+7) over PHOENIX
09-Dec-08 06:05 PM Pacific Time
The Suns broke their 4 game losing streak with a 106-104, non covering win over the Jazz that ran their spread losing streak to 5 games. I expect that streak to continue, as breaking that losing streak is not a sign that things are suddenly alright in Phoenix. The Suns apply to a negative 23-61-1 ATS situation that is based on the breaking of their recent losing streak (good teams that break a 4 game or more losing skid are bad bets in their next game) and Milwaukee is an underrated team that is now 15-6-1 ATS for the season. My ratings, using the Suns games in which both Steve Nash and Shaquille O’Neal both played, favors Phoenix by just 6 points, so we have a bit of line value on our side too. I’ll take Milwaukee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
2-Stars at +6 points or more.

COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
IOWA (-7 ½) over Northern Iowa
09-Dec-08 04:00 PM Pacific Time
It was expected that Northern Iowa could overcome the loss of top player Eric Coleman with the return of 3 other starters and the addition of pointguard Kwadzo Ahelegbe, who missed last season with an injury. However, the returning players have not been able to make up for Coleman’s lost offensive production (Coleman made 55.1% of his shots last season while the rest of the Panthers made just 42.4% from the field) and the Panthers are playing considerably worse on the defensive side of the floor this season. While Northern Iowa is worse than expected, Iowa is better than expected. The Hawkeyes were expected to be better in former Butler coach Todd Lickliter’s second season at the helm, but the great play of freshman guards Anthony Tucker (13.1 points, 44% 3-point shooting) and Matt Gatens (10.8 points, 3.7 assists, 53.4% shooting and 57% from 3-point range) was unexpected and has the Hawkeyes playing much better than anticipated. Lickliter has assembled a team of very good shooters, just like he had at Butler, and his team is shooting 49% from the field and knocking down 42% of their 3-point shots while also playing good defense (40.7% shooting allowed). Unfortunately, Tucker has been suspended for violation of team rules, but his scoring efficiency isn’t too much better than the rest of the team’s combined scoring efficiency and I calculate his loss to the offense at just 0.7 points per game. Tucker only averages 0.7 assists and he defense has been mediocre based on his modest 0.6 steals per game, so I don’t see Iowa being more than a point worse overall without Tucker. In fact, the Hawkeyes played very well in a 2 point loss on the road against a good Boston College team with Tucker playing just 8 minutes and going scoreless (Iowa’s game rating for that game was a few points higher than their average rating). Using this year’s games only would favor Iowa by 13 ½ points after adjusting for the glacial pace of this game (12 ½ without Tucker), but I don’t expect Northern Iowa to continue to play so poorly on defense. If the Panthers defend at the level they did last season (on a points per possession basis) then I’d favor Iowa by 9 ½ points. Either way, the line is too low and Iowa applies to a very good 128-44-4 ATS non-conference home favorite situation. I’ll take Iowa in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ½ and -10 points.
3-Stars at -9 or less, 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10.
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[thedegen]

RAS totals are likely:

VT over
ST. Joes over
Cal-N under

based on line moves

 

[sdf]

ras was stjoes over, denver under, siena over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bestsportspicks

NBA
Det -5

NCAAB
Tex -2
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CHARLIE

500* Knicks / Bulls Over 214
500* Toronto / Cleveland Under 194
30* Cleveland -12
20* Houston -6
20* Washington +5
10* Phoenix -7
Portland -5 Bonus Play

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Erin Rynning

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Georgia
Milwaukee
Sacramento
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