SPORTS ADVISORS
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Nevada (7-5, 5-6 ATS) vs. Maryland (7-5, 5-6 ATS) (at Boise, Idaho)
Maryland, which stumbled in the second half of the season, looks to end the year on a high note when it travels cross-country to face Nevada at Bronco Stadium on the Boise State campus.
The Terrapins went 1-3 SU and ATS in their final four games, quickly sliding down the bowl game pecking order to land in this lower-tier contest. In the Nov. 29 regular-season finale, Maryland lost to Boston College 28-21 as a 6½-point road underdog, despite rallying on two Chris Turner touchdown passes. However, sandwiched between those two scores, Turner threw an INT that was returned 36 yards for BC’s final score with 1:42 remaining, leaving only enough time for one more Terps TD drive.
The Wolf Pack won three of their last four games (2-2 ATS) to gain bowl eligibility. In fact, their only loss in that stretch was to undefeated Boise State, and they put up a strong fight before falling 41-34 as a 6½-point home pup. A week later, on Nov. 29, they finished with a 35-31 victory at Louisiana Tech, failing to cover as a 4½-point chalk. QB Colin Kaepernick (24 of 42, 397 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT) had a monster day as Nevada put up 500 yards, but the defense also allowed 443 yards (185 rushing).
This will be the first meeting between Maryland, out of the ACC, and Nevada, out of the Western Athletic Conference. The Terrapins are in their sixth bowl game in the last eight years, and they are 3-1 SU in their last four and 3-2 SU and ATS in bowl games under coach Ralph Friedgen. In last year’s the Emerald Bowl, Maryland lost to Oregon State 21-14 catching five points.
The Wolf Pack are in a school-record fourth straight postseason contest, going 1-2 SU and ATS the past three seasons. Last year, Nevada got blanked by New Mexico 23-0 as a two-point ‘dog in the New Mexico Bowl. Two years ago, playing in this contest in Boise, the Pack lost to Miami 21-20 but covered as a 3½-point ‘dog, marking the only other time Nevada has played an ACC school. Nevada coach Chris Ault is on a 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS skid against BCS-conference schools.
Maryland, which finished tied for fourth in the ACC’s Atlantic Division, is averaging 20.1 points and 342.2 total yards per game (134.8 rushing ypg). Turner has completed 57.9 percent of his passes for 2,320 yards, but his 11 TD throws have been offset by 10 INTs. On the other side of the ball, the Terps are allowing 355.6 total ypg (150 rushing ypg) and are outside the top 50 nationally in every major defensive category other than scoring defense, where they are at 36th, giving up 21.4 ppg.
Nevada sports the nation’s second-best rushing attack at a whopping 290.8 ypg and also ranks 12th in scoring offense (37.8 ppg) and fifth in total offense (510 ypg). Kaepernick (2,479 passing yards, 54.9 completion percentage) has a 19-5 TD-to-INT differential, and he’s also rushed for 1,103 yards (7.2 ypc) and another 16 TDs. Wolf Pack RB Vai Taua has rushed for 1,432 yards (6.7 ypc) and 13 TDs. Defensively, the Pack allow 396.5 ypg and are particularly susceptible to the pass (321.2 ypg), but despite getting run over in the finale at Louisiana Tech, they allow just 75 yards rushing, good for third in the country.
The Terrapins are on a 5-1 ATS surge following a SU loss, but they are on ATS slides of 1-4 overall and 0-4 on turf. The Wolf Pack are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after a SU victory, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 5-0 on turf, 23-11 as a favorite, 5-1 as a chalk of three points or less and 13-4 coming off a pointspread setback.
The under for Maryland is on tears of 6-2 overall, 4-0 in bowl games, 5-1 against winning teams and 13-6 in non-conference play. On the flip side, the over for Nevada is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win and 5-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEVADA
TEXAS BOWL
Western Michigan (9-3, 5-6 ATS) vs. Rice (9-3, 8-4 ATS) (at Houston)
Rice hopes to continue its strong second-half run when it plays a virtual home game against Western Michigan at Reliant Stadium.
The Owls ripped off victories in their last six games (5-1 ATS), putting up no less than 35 points per game in the process. In their regular-season finale on Nov. 29, they matched their season high in points with a 56-42 victory over Houston as a 3½-point home pup, scoring early in the fourth quarter to go up 56-28 before letting off the gas the rest of the way. QB Chase Clement (28 of 41, 381 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT) had a huge day, and Rice also rushed for 198 yards to finish with 591 total yards – yet the Owls still got outgained, allowing 634 yards, including 494 passing yards and five TDs from Houston QB Case Keenum.
After opening the year with a loss at Nebraska, Western Michigan went 9-2 SU the rest of the way (5-5 ATS in lined games). However, the Broncos got shelled by then-undefeated Ball State 45-22 as a 10-point road ‘dog in their Nov. 25 regular-season finale, ending a 3-0 SU run (2-1 ATS). The Broncos were outgained 452-343, and QB Tim Hiller (15 of 32, 145 yards, 1 TD) had a inordinately rough outing, with one of his two INTs returned for a touchdown.
Rice, which fell just short of playing in the Conference USA title game by finishing second in the West Division, is in a bowl game for the second time in three years, after experiencing a 45-year postseason drought. In the 2006 New Orleans Bowl, the Owls tumbled to Troy 41-17 as a five-point chalk.
Western Michigan, which took second in the Mid-American Conference’s West Division, is also in its second postseason contest in the last three years and just its fourth bowl game ever. In their most recent bowl appearance in the 2006 International Bowl, the Broncos lost to Cincinnati 27-24, but they cashed as a seven-point ‘dog.
Rice is in the top 10 nationally in three offensive categories, with per-game averages of 41.6 points (ninth), 472.2 total yards (10th) and 327.8 passing yards (fifth). Clement has had a monster year, completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,812 yards, with 41 TDs and just seven INTs, and he has also ran for 621 yards and 11 scores. Jarett Dillard (79 catches, 1,224 yards, 19 TDs, 15.5 ypc) has been Clement’s primary target.
Western Michigan has the nation’s 10th-best passing offense, at 301.2 ypg, and is averaging 420 total ypg (25th) and 29.8 ppg (37th). Like Clement, Hiller has had a huge season, completing 66.7 percent of his throws for 3,527 yards and 34 TDs, against just eight INTs. RB Brandon West (970 yards rushing, 5.1 ypc, 255 yards receiving) leads the Broncos with 11 TDs.
Both teams struggle defensively. The Owls rank outside the Top 100 in scoring defense (34.9 ppg, 108th), total defense (466.8 ypg, 115th) and passing defense (273.8 ypg, 114th), and they also give up 192.9 ypg on the ground. Western Michigan yields just 23.8 ppg, but 390.3 total ypg, including 249.4 passing ypg, which ranks 97th in the nation.
Rice went 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS as a chalk this year and won those contests by an average of 17 ppg, and the Owls are also on a 4-1 ATS uptick following a SU win. However, they are in pointspread funks of 5-16 in non-conference play and 2-6 against winning teams. The Broncos are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of three points or less, but they are on ATS skids of 2-5-1 after a SU loss, 2-5-1 against winning teams and 3-7-1 after a pointspread setback.
The over for Rice is on sprees of 42-9 overall, 13-3 when the Owls are favored, 5-1 on grass, 17-5 after a SU win and 23-8 outside Conference USA, and the over for Western Michigan is on rolls of 9-1 in non-conference play, 9-1 with the Broncos as a ‘dog, 4-1 against winning teams and 12-4 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: RICE and OVER
HOLIDAY BOWL
(15) Oregon (9-3, 6-6 ATS) vs. (13) Oklahoma State (9-3, 8-3 ATS) (at San Diego)
For the second time in a week, Qualcomm Stadium hosts a matchup of ranked teams, as surging Oregon travels down the Pacific Coast to face Oklahoma State.
The Ducks won five of their last six regular-season games, closing with a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS) that saw them score a total of 155 points the last three in a row. In their finale against archrival Oregon State, the Ducks rumbled to a 65-38 road as a 2½-point road underdog to keep the Beavers out of the Rose Bowl. QB Jeremiah Masoli (17 carries, 219 yards, 1 TD) and RB LeGarrette Blount (17 carries, 112 yards, 1 TD) led a rushing attack that racked up 385 yards (7.5 ypc), and Masoli added another 274 yards and three TDs through the air on just 11 completions as Oregon finished with an eye-popping 694-463 edge in total yards.
Oklahoma State was firmly in the BCS mix until losing three of its last five games (2-3 ATS) in the hotly contested Big 12 South Division. The Cowboys were dealt a respectable loss at then-No. 1 Texas (28-24 catching 11½ points). But two weeks later, they got blasted at Texas Tech 56-20 as a 3½-point underdog, then got run off their home field in the Nov. 29 season finale against archrival Oklahoma, a 61-41 whipping as a 10-point home underdog. In that contest, QB Zac Robinson (17 of 26, 254 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a decent outing, as he also rushed for 90 yards and a TD, but Oklahoma State got outgained 557-452 and allowed the Sooners to score the last 17 points of the game.
Oregon, which finished second in the Pac-10, is in a bowl game for the 11th time in the past 12 seasons, and it’s the program’s first-ever contest against Oklahoma State. Coach Mike Bellotti is just 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS in the postseason, but his Ducks pounded South Florida 56-21 as a six-point pup in last year’s Sun Bowl. Oregon is playing in the Holiday Bowl for the third time (1-1 SU and ATS).
Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy has his team in a bowl game for third time in his four-year tenure (2-0 SU and ATS), and the Cowboys are looking for just their fourth 10-win season in the program’s history. In last year’s Insight Bowl in Arizona, Oklahoma State hammered Indiana 49-33 as a six-point favorite. This is the Cowboys’ second trip to the Holiday Bowl, with the first coming 20 years ago in a 62-14 rout of Wyoming as a 2½-point chalk – with Gundy leading the way at quarterback for OSU.
Oregon put up 31 points or more in 10 of its 12 games, and the offense ranks in the top 10 nationally in scoring (41.9 ppg, 7th), total yards (478.2, 8th) and rushing yards (277.8, 4th). The Ducks played musical chairs at quarterback for much of the season, with Masoli (nine starts) proving most effective as a dual threat. He’s completing 57 percent of his passes for 1,486 yards with 12 TDs and just four INTs, and he’s rushed for 612 yards (5.5 ypc) and seven more scores. RBs Jeremiah Johnson (156 carries, 1,082 yards, 12 TDs, 6.9 ypc) and Blount (130 carries, 928 yards, 7.1 ypc, 16 TDs) combined for 2,010 rushing yards on the year.
Oklahoma State, which ended up fourth in the Big 12 South, has a steady balance of pass and run, averaging 233.5 yards through the air and a healthy 255.8 on the ground (seventh-best in the nation). The Cowboys, who put up 30 or more nine times in 12 contest, also rate in the top 10 in scoring offense (41.6 ppg, 8th) and total offense (489.2 ypg, 7th). Robinson completed 67 percent of his passes for 2,735 yards, with 24 TDs and just eight INTs, and the mobile QB also rushed for 508 yards (3.9 ypc) and seven scores. RB Kendall Hunter has rolled up 1,518 yards (6.7 ypc) and 14 TDs, and WR Dez Bryant has 74 catches for 1,313 yards and (17.7 ypc) and 18 TDs.
Defensively, the Ducks are fair against the run (119.4 ypg, 24th nationally), but they allow 383 total ypg (263.6 passing, 109th) and 28 ppg (78th). Like Oregon, the Cowboys are decent against the run (124 ypg, 26th), but their drop-offs are also similar to the Ducks, as they allow 392.5 ypg, including 268.5 passing ypg (111th). Oklahoma State allows an average of 26.9 ppg, outscoring teams by nearly 15 ppg.
The Ducks are on ATS streaks of 5-1 as a bowl underdog, 13-5 catching three points or less and 5-2 in non-conference play. However, they were 1-2 SU and ATS as an underdog this season, with the win and cover coming in the season-ending rout of Oregon State, and they carry further negative ATS trends of 2-5 in December, 2-5 on grass and 2-5 against winning teams.
The Cowboys went 8-0 SU and 7-1 as a chalk this season, and they are on additional positive pointspread stretches of 9-3 overall, 4-0 outside the Big 12, 41-20-2 in their last 63 games as a favorite, 6-1 after a double-digit home loss, 7-2 after a SU loss and 5-2 against winning teams.
The over for Oregon is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0-1 outside the Pac-10 and 6-2-1 against winning teams, and the over for Oklahoma State is on tears of 4-1 in non-conference play, 8-3 against winning teams, 12-5 when the Cowboys are favored and 14-6 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(20) Clemson (12-0, 4-3 ATS) at South Carolina (9-1, 2-3 ATS)
South Carolina looks to knock Clemson from the ranks of the unbeatens when these instate rivals continue their annual non-conference series at the Colonial Center in Columbia, S.C.
The Gamecocks roll into this contest on a five-game winning streak (2-1 ATS), though they’ve fattened up entirely on weak competition, including a 75-56 rout of Division II Presbyterian in a non-lined home game a week ago today. During the streak, South Carolina has averaged 80.2 points per game (47.4 percent shooting) and given up 54.2 ppg (37.1 percent), with all five wins coming by at least 14 points. The ‘Cocks’ only loss this season was against Charlotte on a neutral court, an 82-80 overtime setback as a one-point favorite.
Like South Carolina, Clemson has built its sterling record against mostly subpar opponents. However, in their most recent game on Dec. 21, the Tigers opened up ACC play with a dominating 92-71 victory at Miami, Fla., as a three-point underdog. Clemson’s other quality wins came on the road against Illinois (76-74 as a one-point underdog) and Charlotte (71-70 as a four-point chalk).
Clemson is on a 4-0 SU and ATS streak in this rivalry, including last year’s 85-74 victory as a nine-point home favorite. The Tigers have prevailed in their last two trips to Columbia, winning 74-53 as a three-point favorite in 2006 and 63-62 in overtime as an eight-point underdog in 2004. The SU winner has covered in each of the last 10 battles going back to 1998.
While the Tigers have are 2-0 SU and ATS on the road, South Carolina is unbeaten through eight games on its home court, but only three were against Division I opponents (1-2 ATS).
Clemson is on ATS runs of 4-1 on the highway, 6-1 against SEC competition and 5-0 on the road against teams with a winning home record. South Carolina has cashed in seven of its last 10 on Tuesday, but otherwise is in pointspread funks of 2-6 in non-conference play and 1-5 at home.
The over is on streaks of 14-6-1 for Clemson in lined non-conference games, 4-1 for Clemson against the SEC, 5-1 for the Gamecocks overall and 5-2 for the Gamecocks in non-league action. However, South Carolina has stayed low in nine of its last 12 at home, and the total has alternated in the last four meetings in this rivalry, with last year’s going over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON and OVER
Illinois (12-1, 6-4 ATS) at (9) Purdue (11-2, 5-5)
Two teams coming off successful non-conference campaigns open Big Ten play, with Illinois traveling to Mackey Arena for a matchup with 10th-ranked Purdue.
The Illini arrive in West Lafayette, Ind., carrying a six-game winning streak (3-1 ATS in lined games), most recently knocking off Eastern Michigan 62-53 on Sunday but falling way short as a 22-point home favorite, the first time during the streak they failed to post a double-digit rout. Illinois, whose only blemish so far was a 76-74 home loss to Clemson as a one-point favorite in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, has played just one true road game, knocking off Vanderbilt 69-63 as a six-point underdog.
Since suffering back-to-back losses to No. 11 Oklahoma (87-82 in New York) and No. 4 Duke (76-60 at home), the Boilermakers have ripped off six straight double-digit wins (2-2 ATS in lined games). On Sunday, they concluded their non-conference schedule with a 59-45 rout of Valparaiso, failing to cover as a 25-point home favorite. Purdue is 9-1 at Mackey Arena, but just 3-3 ATS in lined action (1-3 ATS last four at home).
These teams met three times last year. Purdue won the first two regular-season battles 74-67 as a three-point home favorite and 83-75 as a 4½-point road underdog, but the Illini knocked the Boilermakers out of the Big Ten tournament with a 74-67 overtime win as a 4½-point pup. Purdue is still 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall and 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes at Mackay Arena. Finally, the host is 4-1 SU (2-3 ATS) in the last five regular-season battles.
Both squads are among the best in the nation on the defensive end of the court. Illinois ranks 14th in the nation in scoring defense (55.8 ppg allowed) and fourth in 3-point defense (26.4 ppg allowed), while the Boilermakers are 15th in scoring defense (56 ppg allowed) and fourth in overall field-goal defense (35 percent). Also, both the Illini (71.4 ppg) and Purdue (74.2 ppg) average better than 70 points per contest offensively.
Illinois is on ATS tears of 6-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 5-3 after a SU win and 5-0 after a non-cover. Purdue has followed up an 18-4-1 ATS run by failing to cash in five of its last seven lined games. However, the Boilermakers remain on pointspread streaks of 22-6-1 in conference play, 8-2-1 on Tuesdays and 11-5-1 versus teams with a winning record.
The under is on runs of 5-1 for the Illini overall, 19-9-1 for the Illini on the road, 6-2 for the Illini in Big Ten action, 4-1 for Purdue overall, 5-2 for Purdue at home and 5-2 for Purdue when playing on Tuesdays. Conversely, the over has been the play in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PURDUE
SPORTS ADVISORS Added
(4) Oklahoma (12-0, 4-4 ATS) at Arkansas (9-1, 2-2 ATS)
Player-of-the-year candidate Blake Griffin leads unbeaten Oklahoma into Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark., for a non-conference clash with the Razorbacks, who are undefeated at home this year.
Oklahoma has been idle since Dec. 22, when it dumped Rice 70-58, falling just short as a 16½-point road favorite. The Sooners have posted five straight double-digit wins (2-2 ATS) prevailing by an average of 19 ppg (74-55), and they’ve given up less than 60 points in four of the victories. Also, OU has scored at least 69 points in every game this season, tallying 80 or more six times, with Griffin (23 points, 14.1 rebounds per game, 68.3 percent shooting) leading the charge.
Arkansas is riding a seven-game winning streak, the last six coming at home by an average of 23 ppg (86-63). However, five of those six wins came against Division II competition, including Saturday’s 95-56 rout of Northwestern State in a non-lined game. The Razorbacks, whose only loss was a 62-57 setback at Missouri State on Nov. 22, are 8-0 at home, but only two of those wins came against Division I opponents (1-1 ATS).
These teams met last year for the first time since 2001, and the Sooners rolled to an 83-72 victory as a four-point home favorite. Going back to 1998, Oklahoma is 5-0 SU and ATS against Arkansas.
Both squads can fill the bucket, with the Sooners averaging 78.7 ppg on 47.4 percent shooting, while the Razorbacks net 81 ppg (46.7 percent). Oklahoma gives up 63.2 ppg (37.9 percent), slightly better than Arkansas, which yields 66.4 ppg (41.5 percent).
Oklahoma is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS on the highway this year, but the Sooners are just 16-36-2 ATS in their last 54 road games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 contests on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Arkansas is mired in pointspread funks of 3-14 versus the Big 12, 1-6-1 on Tuesday and 1-5 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points, but the Hogs have cashed in four of their last five versus winning teams.
The over is 10-4-1 in Oklahoma’s last 15 non-conference contests and 5-1 in its last six on Tuesday, but the under is 7-1-1 in its past nine lined roadies. For Arkansas, the under is 9-4 in its last 13 games on Tuesday, but otherwise the over is on streaks of 4-1 overall and 5-1 against the Big 12.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA
NBA
Boston (28-4, 18-14) at Portland (19-12, 15-16 ATS)
The Celtics conclude a somewhat disappointing four-game West Coast road trip with a stop at the Rose Garden as they look to defeat the Trail Blazers for the eighth straight time.
Boston embarked on its West Coast swing with a team-record 19-game winning streak, but suffered its first two-game losing skid of the season with a Christmas Day loss at the Lakers (92-83 as two-point underdog) and a stunning defeat the next night at Golden State (99-89 as an 11-point favorite). However, the Celtics got back on track Sunday, posting their most lopsided win of the season in a 108-63 rout of Sacramento as a 12½-point favorite, Boston has scored 108 points or more in each of its last four victories.
Portland has alternated SU and ATS wins and loses in its last five, most recently downing the Raptors 102-89 Saturday, cashing as an eight-point favorite. The Blazers have topped the century mark in each of their last four victories, and the SU winner is 9-0 ATS in Portland’s last nine contests, with the Blazers going just 4-5 SU and ATS during this stretch.
Boston is on a 7-0 SU and 8-0 ATS roll against the Blazers, including three straight wins and four straight covers at the Rose Garden. In fact, during the Celtics’ seven-game winning streak in this rivalry, five have been double-digit blowouts, including a 93-78 rout as an eight-point home chalk back on Dec. 5. Last year, Boston went to Portland as a 5 ½-point favorite and prevailed 112-102. Finally, the Celtics have been favored in six of the last seven clashes with the Blazers, and the road team has covered in 12 of the last 17 meetings.
The Celtics are now 11-3 on the highway this year, but just 7-7 ATS, including 2-5 ATS in the last seven. Portland is 11-3 at home (9-5 ATS), including 4-1 SU and ATS in its last four at the Garden.
Aside from its recent road slide, Boston carries a slew of ATS streaks into this game, including 21-7 versus the Western Conference, 15-6 against teams with a winning record, 13-6 after a victory, 20-8 on Tuesdays and 4-1 when playing after a day of rest.
Going back to last season, the Blazers are 13-5 ATS at home. However, they’re on negative pointspread nosedives of 4-9 overall, 2-6 against the Atlantic Division, 1-5 versus the Eastern Conference and 1-6 after a SU win.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven series meetings. However, the under is on runs of 4-0 for Boston on the road, 6-0-1 for Boston against the Northwest Division, 5-0-1 for Boston against the Western Conference, 12-6 for Portland overall and 19-8 for Portland after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
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