Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Warriors/Lakers UNDER 220.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Warriors rallied from an 18-point first-quarter deficit at home Monday and beat Boston 103-99. Golden State, which defeated Phoenix on Saturday, hasn’t won three in a row since April 1-5; suffice to say I expect a large offensive "letdown" this evening.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the posted number in five of Golden State's last seven on the road overall.
On the other side of the court: Los Angeles looks to avoid back-to-back home losses for the first time since the end of the 2007-08 season; to do that I expect a concerted effort on the defensive side of the ball.
The Western Conference-leading Lakers return home from a 1-1 trip that easily could have been 0-2 if it weren’t for Kobe Bryant’s two clutch 3-pointers in the second overtime of Saturday’s 112-103 victory in Sacramento.
Remember, the total has gone "under" the posted number in four of the Lakers last five at home overall.
Bottom line: Here is another powerful "under" trend that the Lakers exhibit; LA has seen the total go "under" the posted number in seven of ten games this season when playing against a team with a losing record.
Expect this and these other strong O/U trends to continue this evening and when coupled with these other factors, the sharp money in this one is on the UNDER!
*7* UNDER.[/FONT]
Warriors/Lakers UNDER 220.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Warriors rallied from an 18-point first-quarter deficit at home Monday and beat Boston 103-99. Golden State, which defeated Phoenix on Saturday, hasn’t won three in a row since April 1-5; suffice to say I expect a large offensive "letdown" this evening.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the posted number in five of Golden State's last seven on the road overall.
On the other side of the court: Los Angeles looks to avoid back-to-back home losses for the first time since the end of the 2007-08 season; to do that I expect a concerted effort on the defensive side of the ball.
The Western Conference-leading Lakers return home from a 1-1 trip that easily could have been 0-2 if it weren’t for Kobe Bryant’s two clutch 3-pointers in the second overtime of Saturday’s 112-103 victory in Sacramento.
Remember, the total has gone "under" the posted number in four of the Lakers last five at home overall.
Bottom line: Here is another powerful "under" trend that the Lakers exhibit; LA has seen the total go "under" the posted number in seven of ten games this season when playing against a team with a losing record.
Expect this and these other strong O/U trends to continue this evening and when coupled with these other factors, the sharp money in this one is on the UNDER!
*7* UNDER.[/FONT]
Tony George
SW MISSOURI -2.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Mizzou St. has 1 los, a 1 point OT loss at SEC power Arkansas in their last game. They are 10-1 on the year, 3-1 on the road, allow right at 60 ppg on defense and lead in every stats category in this matchup, and they shoot damn near 75% from the charity stripe. Kyle Weems is a 6’6” power forward who is a difference maker for them and a high scorning option who also creates allot away from the ball. Look for a good game here, and while this is the Bears 4th roadie in a row, they have had time between those games. Evansville is tough place to play, but school on break and students attendance way down.
Play 1 Unit on Missouri State.[/FONT]
SW MISSOURI -2.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Mizzou St. has 1 los, a 1 point OT loss at SEC power Arkansas in their last game. They are 10-1 on the year, 3-1 on the road, allow right at 60 ppg on defense and lead in every stats category in this matchup, and they shoot damn near 75% from the charity stripe. Kyle Weems is a 6’6” power forward who is a difference maker for them and a high scorning option who also creates allot away from the ball. Look for a good game here, and while this is the Bears 4th roadie in a row, they have had time between those games. Evansville is tough place to play, but school on break and students attendance way down.
Play 1 Unit on Missouri State.[/FONT]
Ron Raymond
Knicks/Pistons OVER 194
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When ANY NBA Team played as a 3.5 to 6 Road Underdog - with 1 day off - Last 4 years - Vs Conference Opponent - Coming off a 2 game losing streak - Coming off a 2 ATS lost; the OVER is 11-4-0 for the Road Dog (NYK) in this role the last 4 seasons. Take the OVER.[/FONT]
Knicks/Pistons OVER 194
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When ANY NBA Team played as a 3.5 to 6 Road Underdog - with 1 day off - Last 4 years - Vs Conference Opponent - Coming off a 2 game losing streak - Coming off a 2 ATS lost; the OVER is 11-4-0 for the Road Dog (NYK) in this role the last 4 seasons. Take the OVER.[/FONT]
Greg Shaker
Wisconsin/Miami OVER 57
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I am not going to waste much time telling you why this in the right play and this is a good play. We have two high powered offenses and two defenses that are mediocre at best. The weather is going to be great for this affair and especially with Miami, they have the speed that Wisconsin is going to have problems with. That is the reason why I have a lean on the Canes winning this game but the Total is by far the better choice. The Badgers very balanced attack is one that is hard to stop as well and they have score 30+ the last 5 times they have stepped onto a field. The fact is, only Ohio State and Iowa, two very good D's have been able to stop these guys. I think this one goes well OVER the total.[/FONT]
Wisconsin/Miami OVER 57
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I am not going to waste much time telling you why this in the right play and this is a good play. We have two high powered offenses and two defenses that are mediocre at best. The weather is going to be great for this affair and especially with Miami, they have the speed that Wisconsin is going to have problems with. That is the reason why I have a lean on the Canes winning this game but the Total is by far the better choice. The Badgers very balanced attack is one that is hard to stop as well and they have score 30+ the last 5 times they have stepped onto a field. The fact is, only Ohio State and Iowa, two very good D's have been able to stop these guys. I think this one goes well OVER the total.[/FONT]
Bob Balfe
TEMPLE +4.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Temple was just one vote away from their university dumping the football program. Now, coach Al Golden has turned this program around from being the laughing stock of college football to a legit contender in the MAC Conference. After a 6-6 season, UCLA will have to travel approximately 3000 miles. The Bruins, the last team to earn a bowl birth, have an extremely weak offense and will be without their starting center which will have them shuffling their offensive lineup once again. They probably won't enjoy the travel too well and are probably satisfied enough to just get a bowl bid and make a little bit of money for the school. The meaning and purpose of this game is like night and day. This is arguably the biggest thing to happen to Temple in years, while UCLA enters the matchup embarrassed and uninspired as a team. Take the Owls. [/FONT]
TEMPLE +4.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Temple was just one vote away from their university dumping the football program. Now, coach Al Golden has turned this program around from being the laughing stock of college football to a legit contender in the MAC Conference. After a 6-6 season, UCLA will have to travel approximately 3000 miles. The Bruins, the last team to earn a bowl birth, have an extremely weak offense and will be without their starting center which will have them shuffling their offensive lineup once again. They probably won't enjoy the travel too well and are probably satisfied enough to just get a bowl bid and make a little bit of money for the school. The meaning and purpose of this game is like night and day. This is arguably the biggest thing to happen to Temple in years, while UCLA enters the matchup embarrassed and uninspired as a team. Take the Owls. [/FONT]
Andre Gomes
Cavaliers/Hawks UNDER 194
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is the big game of the night and in my opinion we will watch a tough battle between two terrific teams. I believe that the totals line is off from the correct line, as the public perception thinks that the Hawks will run up and down against the Cavaliers...they are wrong.
I’ve already said that the Hawks can play in any style and be effective in both ways. They like to open the court against lowly teams, however while facing top teams, they stick to their terrific half court defense and shut down their opponents. Just look for some results of them against top teams: 96-83 vs Utah; 80-75 @ Dallas, 76-93 vs Orlando or 97-86 @ Boston. For tonight’s contest, we can expect this game to be a slow paced one with both teams running half court sets.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are now playing very well on defense as of late. After losing in Dallas against a Mavericks team without Dirk Nowitzki, in which they allowed 102 points, the Cavs increased their defensive intensiveness and allowed just 91, 104, 87 and 83 points in their last 4 games. Note that during the process, the Cavs faced the Suns and the Lakers – two of the most potent offensive teams in the league and they still only allowed 91 and 87 points. Even on their last game on a potential letdown spot (first home game after a Western road trip) for them, they held the Rockets to just 35 points in the second half, while allowing just 32.9% from the field. They are in their best defensive moment of the season so far and they look forward to take the challenge today at Atlanta.
The Over is 10-3-1 when Atlanta plays at home this season, however only twice they faced opponents that turned the games into slow paced contests like this one will be: against Portland and Orlando. Against Portland, the game ended 99-95 after overtime (85-85 in regulation) and against Orlando the score was 76-93. My projected line for this contest is 185/188 points and I think that we have enough edge to take the under in here as a best bet and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 194 [/FONT]
Cavaliers/Hawks UNDER 194
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is the big game of the night and in my opinion we will watch a tough battle between two terrific teams. I believe that the totals line is off from the correct line, as the public perception thinks that the Hawks will run up and down against the Cavaliers...they are wrong.
I’ve already said that the Hawks can play in any style and be effective in both ways. They like to open the court against lowly teams, however while facing top teams, they stick to their terrific half court defense and shut down their opponents. Just look for some results of them against top teams: 96-83 vs Utah; 80-75 @ Dallas, 76-93 vs Orlando or 97-86 @ Boston. For tonight’s contest, we can expect this game to be a slow paced one with both teams running half court sets.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are now playing very well on defense as of late. After losing in Dallas against a Mavericks team without Dirk Nowitzki, in which they allowed 102 points, the Cavs increased their defensive intensiveness and allowed just 91, 104, 87 and 83 points in their last 4 games. Note that during the process, the Cavs faced the Suns and the Lakers – two of the most potent offensive teams in the league and they still only allowed 91 and 87 points. Even on their last game on a potential letdown spot (first home game after a Western road trip) for them, they held the Rockets to just 35 points in the second half, while allowing just 32.9% from the field. They are in their best defensive moment of the season so far and they look forward to take the challenge today at Atlanta.
The Over is 10-3-1 when Atlanta plays at home this season, however only twice they faced opponents that turned the games into slow paced contests like this one will be: against Portland and Orlando. Against Portland, the game ended 99-95 after overtime (85-85 in regulation) and against Orlando the score was 76-93. My projected line for this contest is 185/188 points and I think that we have enough edge to take the under in here as a best bet and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 194 [/FONT]
