Service Plays Tuesday 12/22/09

[tinfw17]

Dave Malinsky

Oklahoma City Thunder(+10) over LOS ANGELES LAKERS
4* #517 OKLAHOMA CITY over L.A. LAKERS

It is not often that the weaker team can go out and attack the superior opponent aggressively and be successful. But that is what we have here, as the young and fresh legs of the Thunder have a chance to take this one right to the final possessions. Oklahoma City does not just bring young talent; there is also a sense of purpose. With a strong chemistry and work ethic the Thunder are not easy to run out of a game, with a 15-5 ATS mark their last 20 games when taking +8.5 or more on the road. And with two full days to prepare for this double revenge affair, with the confidence of knowing that one of the earlier defeats went to O.T. and was in their hands to win outright, we get their ?A? game. That is not the case with the Lakers. Los Angeles is in a fragile setting for even this class of team. The Lakers are playing their fifth game in seven nights, and have almost no down time from that Eastern swing. Kobe Bryant is most aware of the difficulties it brings - "That first game back is always the toughest, probably because of all the travel and your body still getting acclimated to the time zone. You're trying to get back into a routine, and get a handle on all the stuff that goes on when you're home.? That, of course, is magnified even more when Christmas is two days away, especially with that nationally-televised showdown vs. the Cavaliers creating an additional look-ahead on that very day. And Phil Jackson recognizes what the tough schedule grind can also mean in teams of performance - "I thought things sort of eroded a bit for us in certain areas (on the road trip), and that happens when you don't have the practice time and you don't put the proper amount of time in to get your timing and rhythm down." The Lakers are only interested in getting a ?W? here and moving on, with a margin of no interest. Not that they could get it anyway. This one is close to the final buzzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LOGICAL APPROACH

This is an extremely attractive matchup that features a pair of ranked teams meeting in an early minor Bowl. This could be aptly called the BYU Bowl as the Cougars are making a fifth straight appearance here and are facing a fifth different Pac 10 opponent. BYU has split the prior 4 games, defeating Oregon and UCLA but losing to Cal and last season to Arizona. For a fourth straight season they bring a 10-2 record into this game. Despite the frequency of their appearances in this Bowl, BYU brings a lot of fan support and interest and the game is already sold out. A mid season loss to TCU took BYU out of the conference title chase and so this has been their goal ever since. Oregon State missed a chance to win the Pac 10 and play in the Rose Bowl when they lost their thrilling finale to arch rival Oregon. The Beavers are Bowling for a fourth straight season and sixth in seven seasons. In previous Las Vegas Bowl they routed New Mexico 55-14 in 2003 in coach Riley's first season of his second tour at OSU. They also lost to an unbeaten team this season, dropping a 28-18 home decision to Cincinnati. Their best wins arguably came at home over Stanford and on the road over Cal. BYU's best win was in their opener, 14-13 over Oklahoma when they knocked OU QB Bradford out of the contest. But the Cougars also suffered a lopsided 54-28 loss at home to Florida State a few weeks later that was even uglier than the final score suggests. The 38-7 home loss to TCU was just as ugly. BYU does bring the better season stats into this contest though the edges are slight but they are consistent and are on both sides of the football. OSU does have one very strong edge in that they lost just 8 turnovers all season, best in the nation. But their defense only caused 14 opponent turnovers (#113 of 120). Both teams have strength at key skill positions with BYU having the QB edge and OSU having the RB edge. But both edges are slight. Oregon State's stats are slightly padded by their 34-7 win over FCS Portland State while BYU played only FBS foes. OSU has the better pedigree from the Pac 10 and Pac 10 teams were 3-0 against Mountain West teams this season (2-1 ATS). But last season MWC teams were 6-2 against the Pac 10 so there is evidence that the supposedly inferior conference can compete when stepping up in class. Both BYU and Oregon State played on this fields earlier this season as both defeated UNLV in regular season play. BYU's 59-21 win was more impressive (yardage edge of 611-337) than OSU's 23-21 squeaker (yardage edge of 382-310) but that may have been due to BYU's familiarity with UNLV as an annual conference rival. The state of mind of OSU must be called into question as they were so close to making the Rose Bowl that being in this Bowl is hardly a reward - perhaps the Beavers should have made it to a bigger Bowl. Meanwhile this is BYU's Bowl and they'll be highly motivated to atone for last season's loss to Arizona. They have most of the intangible edges in addition to having won 5 of their last 7 games against Pac 10 foes. The forecast is for BYU to win 27-23, making

BYU a 3 Star Selection
UNDER also a 3 Star Selection .

 

[brewerfan003]

Here are all of Northcoast sports Power Sweep double bowl issue for all the Bowls.

4* BYU
3* Cal
2* SMU
1* UN 49.5 MARSHALL/OU
3* PITT
2* BOSTON COLLEGE
4* CLEMSON
1* GEORGIA
2* UN 46.5 TEMPLE/UCLA
4* MIAMI
3* IDAHO
1* UN 40 NEBRASKA/AZ
3* HOUSTON
2* STANFORD
2* OV 52.5 NAVY/MIZZOU
3* MINN
1* UN 50 TENN/VA TECH
2* NORTHWESTERN
2* FLORIDA STATE
3* PENN ST
3* OHIO STATE
4* FLORIDA
2* N ILL
4* S CAROLINA
NOPLAY ON OSU/MISS
2* EAST CAROLINA
1* TEXAS TECH
1* BOISE ST
3* IOWA
2* TROY/CENT MICH UNDER
ALA/TEX NO PLAY

 

[Hap]

Seabass CFB: 50 BYU

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WILD BILL
NCAAB card (31-40)

Texas
Akron
UNC
C Mich
St Peter's
Evansville
Air Force
Drake
Idaho
Colorado St
TT Over
W Kentucky Over
Wash U Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +6½ over NEW YORK

One has to wonder how the Bulls are going to be feeling after blowing a 30-point lead last night at home to Sacramento. The Bulls were outscored 33-10 in the final frame and looked absolutely stunned when it was over. Thing is, they still built a 30-point lead, they had been playing really decent ball the past few games and they just let up and couldn’t get it back. Now, and as a result of that meltdown, the books made the Knicks a 6-point choice and that number has risen to 6½. Remember, the Bulls were coming off three strong games including a win over the very talented Hawks. They also beat the Knicks last week in Chicago and while they could be more shocked than Tiger Woods’ mother-in-law after last night, they’ll be back focused here to erase that bad memory. Basketball is all about match-ups and the Knicks had loads of trouble getting good shots in that game in Chicago and the Bulls have to be feeling pretty good about its chances here. The Knicks are much more appealing taking points as oppose to giving them. They can be counted on for long scoring droughts almost every game and have probably fallen behind by double-digits more than any team in the NBA with the exception of the Nets. That’s a recipe for disaster when laying points and the bottom line is that these Knicks are a big risk when asked to do so. Play: Chicago +6 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).


HOUSTON –8½ over L.A. Clippers

This line may seem a bit high when you consider that the Clip Joint was a 9-point dog last night in San Antonio. In fact, you have to go all the way back to the third game of the year to find the last time the Clippers were a 9-point road pooch and that was in Utah. However, the books don’t make bad lines and they’ll be looking for Clip Joint money. Thing is, the Clips played last night and this will be its seventh game in 10 days and its fourth game in five nights. It’s also their fifth consecutive on the road and they could be running strictly on fumes here. The Rockets are rested, healthy and it’s worth noting that Aaron Brooks is coming off a 2-15, five point performance in a win over the Thunder. Brooks will not duplicate that and should go off tonight against this exhausted guest. Play: Houston –8½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

 

[BetToWin33]

vegas runner

double-dime bet 513 LAC / 514 HOU OVER 194.0 Bodog
Analysis:
*** TOP 2* NBA "PERSONAL PLAY OF THE DAY ***

(Possible Upgrade at "Final Update"...Please Check Back by� 6:30pm est)

 

[JVu81]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

VANCOUVER CANUCKS -150

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the home side:

Nashville has been playing great lately, but will be in tough today against a "revenge minded" Canucks team.

Roberto Luongo has a 3.54 goals-against average in losing his last two starts against Nashville.

Nashville may be 6-1 its last seven overall, but its just 2-6 its last eight vs. Vancouver and is a horrible 4-11-1 its last 16 at GM Place.

On the other side of the rink: After posting their biggest victory of the season on Friday by shutting down Washington superstar Alexander Ovechkin and rallying from a first-period deficit, the Canucks played a poor second period en route to a 3-1 loss to St. Louis Sunday, a team that was at the bottom of the Western Conference standings. Vancouver had a chance to move up into a playoff position for the first time all season, but once again failed to walk the talk; expect a "bounce-back" this evening.

Vancouver is 4-2 its last six and always plays tough in front of the hometown crowd; 14-5 its last 19 at home.

Bottom line: The Canucks will look to end their extended home stretch with a concerted effort; look for VANCOUVER to move to 7-4 (+1.7 units) after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game this season and for Nashville to fall to 2-2 when playing with two days of rest.

*7* VANCOUVER.[/FONT]

 

[JVu81]

Tony George

OREGON STATE -2.5

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Short and Sweet. Oregon State was a game away from a BCS Bowl game and a PAC 10 championship and lost to rival Oregon. While both QBs will provide some fireworks here, I like a more motivated team in this one. While many say OSU comes in here with their head down, I am not buying that from Mike Riley’s team. They have a stud QB, they rarely turn the ball over, can score 35 ppg with ease and BYU lost to 1 good team they played TCU who blew them out and also another BCS school Florida State who sucks blew them out in Provo. Paper tiger, OSU a solid team who beat Cal and Stanford and is battle tested. Overall team depth and speed favor OSU. A good game, but I go against the popular choice in BYU here and play the better team laying less than a FG.

Play 1 Unit on Oregon State.[/FONT]

 

[JVu81]

Evan Altemus

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS +2

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Allen Iverson was a horrible addition to the 76ers, as they were a much better team without him. He was only brought in to sell tickets, and they are playing much better in the two games without him in the line-up. Philadelphia should be able to play well tonight, as Iverson is expected to miss this game as well. The main reason for this selection is the absolutely horrible spot for Washington. They are coming off of a very tiring road trip, and now they have to play one home game before going back out onto the road. In addition, the Wizards are banged up, which makes this spot even worse. Finally, it is very close to Christmas, so the players are probably more focused on taking care of other teams than playing a game against lowly Philadelphia. Washington hasn’t played well at home either this season. Sharp bettors are absolutely hammering this season, so make sure to shop around and get the best line available. I feel that it is still a top play up as long as the 76ers don’t become a favorite.

4 UNIT SELECTION 76ERS[/FONT]

 

[JVu81]

Ron Raymond

BYU/Oregon State UNDER 58

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When ANY NCAAF Team played as Road team as a Underdog - After a conference game - Last 2 years - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off 1 under - Coming off a game scored 24 points or more; the UNDER is 13-6-0 for the Road Dog (BYU) in this role. Take the UNDER.[/FONT]

 

[JVu81]

Greg Shaker

CENTRAL MICHIGAN +7.5

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It was only a few days ago that my Large Play on Bowling Green came through with flying colors verses this Titans team and we have pretty much the same situation going tonight as well. Oddsmakers are being over confident about what Detroit is and what they can do. The Scout line opened for this one at -9 and has quickly moved downward to it's present level. How do we back at 1-5 road squad tonight. We do because the likelihood is that this game will be a nailbiter and a possible outright by the visitors. There is no doubt that Detroit is a strong home squad and that this gym lends itself to that. It is just simply a tough place to win games. However, this series has been a visitors dream and the travelers have won outright the last 4 of 5 times. While the Chips do not shoot as well as Detroit, they do play better D, they do make more of their Free Throws, and they do have a stronger bench. The Titans struggled down the stretch hosting BG because they can't close that well and they should be in the same boat tonight. Road contests at Purdue and at Wright State prepares this Chips team for this one. We should see them control the 2nd half and that is where games are won. Just too many points here....again. Take Central Michigan.[/FONT]

 

[JVu81]

Dwayne Bryant

MISSOURI ST pick 'em

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The oddsmakers really messed up here. I use two sets of power ratings, and both sets have Missouri State as the stronger team with AT LEAST 165 teams between them! Arkansas has already lost to Louisville by 30 on a neutral court, and to Oklahoma by 20 on the road. And both sets of power ratings have this Missouri State club rated higher than UL and OU. Arkansas already owns home losses to the likes of Morgan State, East Tennessee State, and South Alabama -- all ranked WELL BELOW Missouri State. The Razorbacks do have a four-game winning streak, but they've been beating up on teams that, according to my rankings, are rated from 231st to 342nd out of 347 Division 1 teams.

This undefeated Missouri State team already owns an eight-point win over Tulsa, who my two sets of rankings have as the 19th and 23rd best team in Division 1. They're coming off a ten-point road win at St. Louis, which is a team I have ranked over 100 spots better than Arkansas. Missouri State has a slight height advantage and has proved to be the better rebounding team so far this season. They also are a MUCH better free-throw shooting team, hitting 73.8% compared to just 64.8% for Arkansas. Missouri State's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings are 49th and 62nd, respectively. That is much better than Arkansas, which ranks 158th and 256th in those key categories.

Bottom line: I've sliced and diced this game every which way, and I come up with a 10 to 14-point win for Missouri State. Getting them at a pick'em is a gift. Take Missouri State.[/FONT]

 

[JVu81]

Bob Balfe

OHIO U +10

 

[JVu81]

Rocketman

UCLA -9

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]UCLA is 15-5 ATS since 1997 at home when the total is between 130 and 134 1/2. Rams are 19-41 ATS in their last 60 games following a ATS loss. Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games. Rams are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Bruins are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games. Bruins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. Bruins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Bruins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. We'll play UCLA for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.[/FONT]

 

[JVu81]

Spartan

TEXAS -8

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I stated on the pod cast with Dan Bebe and Mike Hook last friday that I was looking forward to the big game saturday featuring Texas and North Carolina because the Longhorns are literally loaded this year and they did not let me down as they outclassed a very strong Tar Heels team. Now the Michigan State Spartans come calling in Austin to see how they match up with Texas. Frankly I expect similar results to this last weekend and quite possible a lot worse for the visitors. The Horns put up 103 on North Carolina and that was in the Cowboys monster stadium where the shooting was not the same as home with sight lines and such, that might not seem like much but it can affect teams. Now they are home and I just feel they totally outclass this Spartans club. This Texas team Rick Barnes has constructed has prevailed in every game this year to date by double figures and I absolutely do not expect that to change here tonight. They can score, they can all fill the net as was clearly in play against North Carolina as fours players scored 20+ points. I respect Tom Izzo a great deal but he is going to be in the wrong place at the wrong time here tonight. Triple Star Release on Texas -8 guys![/FONT]

 

[JVu81]

Lenny Del Genio

NEW YORK KNICKS -6[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]

It's very rare that we make a play on the Knicks. However, it's even rarer to find an NBA team that blew a 35 POINT LEAD the previous night. Last week, we asked "when Vinny Del Negro was going to be fired?" The answer now appears to be "very soon" after his Bulls pulled a gag job of epic proportions last night vs. the Kings. It was the biggest lead surrendered by any NBA team since a November '96 loss by Denver when they led the Jazz by 36 at halftime. Chicago was outscored 33-10 in the fourth quarter by Sacramento and turned the ball over seven times. They are playing with a seven-man rotation. This is a terrible road team, losing 10 of 12 overall away from the United Center. They have lost seven straight road games with five of them coming by 14 points or greater. After starting the season 1-9, New York has won 9 of its last 17, beating many opponents better than this, and they've held seven straight opponents to 100 points or less. Chicago has not scored more than 101 points all season, doing it only three times this year. New York is our 20* NBA Situational Game of the Month.[/FONT]

 

[PDBLING]

root

millionaire .............byu

 

[pointclickcars]

Straightupbet

+3 BYU

 

[johnconner]

greg shaker

central michigan +7.5

[font=verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif]it was only a few days ago that my large play on bowling green came through with flying colors verses this titans team and we have pretty much the same situation going tonight as well. Oddsmakers are being over confident about what detroit is and what they can do. The scout line opened for this one at -9 and has quickly moved downward to it's present level. How do we back at 1-5 road squad tonight. We do because the likelihood is that this game will be a nailbiter and a possible outright by the visitors. There is no doubt that detroit is a strong home squad and that this gym lends itself to that. It is just simply a tough place to win games. However, this series has been a visitors dream and the travelers have won outright the last 4 of 5 times. While the chips do not shoot as well as detroit, they do play better d, they do make more of their free throws, and they do have a stronger bench. The titans struggled down the stretch hosting bg because they can't close that well and they should be in the same boat tonight. Road contests at purdue and at wright state prepares this chips team for this one. We should see them control the 2nd half and that is where games are won. Just too many points here....again. Take central michigan.[/font]

comp