Andre Gomes
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS -6
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is my strongest play of the season so far. However, note that you should keep following my Money Management rigorously, as only in that way we can achieve success in long term!**
This is my strongest play so far in the season, as we have the right number to pull the trigger for a Triple Dime Play. With the Public hammering the Heat on the road, a friendly line movement gave us a line of 6 points, I accept the challenge. Note that right now the line is around the number, 7 but you shouldn’t be afraid to take it because my fair line for this contest is -13/15 points for the Blazers.
Onto this game this is a perfect to ride the Blazers, as they are hungry and desperate to get back to the winning column after two ugly losses against the Grizzlies and the Jazz. Of course that losing against the Grizzlies was a huge surprise, while traveling to Utah in a back to back spot to face the Jazz is another story and I accept that loss as being “normal”. The common factor of both losses was the Blazers inability to stop the opponents’ frontcourt. Against the Grizzlies they allowed 54 points in the paint with Zack Randolph shooting 10-20 FG, Marc Gasol 6-8 and even rookie Thabeet torched them by connecting 4-7 from the field. In their last game against the Jazz, Carlos Boozer was a beast and completely dominated the Blazers by shooting 11-16 from the field, grabbing 12 rebounds and dishing 7 assists! Also Okur ended the game shooting 4-8 FG, Fesenko 3-6 FG and Millsap 3-5 FG. A quick look to the points in the paint rankings in this season, we can see that the Grizzlies are the best team averaging 50.7 ppg and the Jazz is ranked 6th with 47.7 points per game.
The pertinent question in here is: will the Heat pound the Blazers in the front like the Grizzlies and the Jazz are able to do? My answer: impossible! The Heat is averaging only 35.5 points in the paint per game – good for the 3rd worst mark in the league! They have an undersized PF in Michael Beasley and Jermaine O’Neal isn’t the dominant force that he used to be and so the Blazers won’t be crushed down. Instead, I expect them to dominate the glass with Oden and Przybilla, while LaMarcus Aldridge will explore his size advantage against the Heat.
I've already said that I don’t like the way Miami is playing right now. I wasn’t surprised to see them losing at home against the Wizards because I was with the Wizards on their last game. Their ball movement was terrible lately, as in their last 3 games they had only 12, 17 and 13 assists and in a half court game against the Blazers their stagnant offense will be in trouble. Even Dwayne Wade is struggling lately and the Heat is going for this road trip in a bad form. We must not also forget the terrible spot for Miami is in for this contest. They played Sunday at home against the Celtics and with only one day rest they had to cross the whole country to face the Blazers. Not coincidently, the Heat had the exact same spot last season when they faced the Blazers on the road: they had 2 home games and then they traveled to Portland with just one day to rest. The result: a 68-106 loss against at Portland!
In my opinion and the factors are working for the Blazers side and with a relatively short spread to cover, I’m taking the Blazers tonight to win big as my first Triple Dime Play of the season!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 710 Portland Trail Blazers (-6) [/FONT]