INSIDE THE LINES
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 1
Updated by 2:00 P.M. Eastern Weekdays
Updated by 9:00 A.M. Eastern Weekends
NBA
Miami (9-7, 7-9 ATS) at Portland (12-7, 10-9 ATS)
The slumping Heat begin a four-game Western Conference road trip with a visit to the Rose Garden for a tussle with the Trail Blazers, who have dropped two in a row.
Miami struggled offensively in consecutive home losses to Washington on Friday (94-84 as seven-point favorite) and Boston on Sunday (92-85 as a four-point underdog). The Heat are 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, with all three victories being one-point wins over Orlando (99-98), New Orleans (102-101) and New Jersey (81-80).
Portland has followed up a three-game winning streak with consecutive losses to Memphis (106-96 as an 11½-point home favorite on Friday) and Utah (108-92 as a five-point road ‘dog on Saturday). The Blazers, who have failed to cover in three straight games and six of their last eight after a 6-0 ATS run, gave up more than 100 points in their last two games after allowing just two of their first 17 opponents to reach triple digits. Also, prior to Friday’s shocking loss to Memphis, Portland had won six straight home games (4-2 ATS).
The Blazers swept the season series from Miami each of the last two years, cashing in all four games. In the last two meetings at the Rose Garden, Portland topped the Heat 112-106 as a 3½-point home underdog in 2007 and 106-68 as a 7½-point chalk in 2008. Still, the visitor is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 series clashes, and the winner has covered the spread in each of the last 11 meetings.
Miami is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 on Tuesday, but in addition to their 1-8 overall ATS slump, the Heat are on pointspread slides of 2-5 against winning teams, 1-4 versus the Western Conference, 0-5 after SU loss and 0-6 when playing after one day of rest. The Blazers have failed to cash in five of their last seven against the Eastern Conference, but they’re 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on Tuesday, 23-11 ATS in their last 34 as a favorite and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when coming off two days of rest.
The over is 5-2 in the Heat’s last seven games overall, 25-10-1 in their last 36 after a SU defeat and 36-15-1 in their last 52 against Northwest Division foes, but they’re also on “under” runs of 4-1 on Tuesday and 5-2 against the Western Conference. Similarly, Portland carries “under” trends of 16-7 overall, 8-3 at home, 4-0 on Tuesday and 5-2 against the Southeast Division. However, the over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these squads in Portland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
New Orleans (7-10, 8-9 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (13-3, 8-8 ATS)
The surging Lakers shoot for their seventh straight win when they welcome the Hornets to the Staples Center.
New Orleans is coming off Sunday’s 112-96 loss at Sacramento as a four-point road underdog, ending a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS run. Although the Hornets have taken four of their last six, both losses have come on the road, so they’ve now dropped four straight on the highway (1-3 ATS), giving up an average of 114.8 ppg. In fact, New Orleans is just 1-8 (3-6 ATS) as a visitor this year, with the lone victory coming against the Clippers. In those eight road defeats, the Hornets have surrendered an average of 111.3 ppg.
Los Angeles toyed with the winless Nets on Sunday, rolling 106-87 as a 14½-point home chalk, posting its sixth straight double-digit victory (5-1 ATS) while handing New Jersey its 17th straight loss to begin this season. The Lakers have averaged 108.5 ppg and allowed just 89.8 ppg during their winning streak, and since a 99-92 season-opening win over the Clippers, they’ve scored at least 100 points in their last 12 victories while netting just 83.3 ppg in their three losses.
One of the Hornets’ road losses came in Hollywood back on Nov. 8, a 104-88 setback as a 6½-point underdog. The Lakers have now taken five of the last six in this rivalry, but the teams have split the cash. Also, prior to last month’s matchup, New Orleans had cashed in five straight trips to Hollywood and the underdog had covered in 11 consecutive meetings, including nine outright upsets. The SU winner is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head clashes.
In addition to covering in five of their last six overall, the Hornets have gotten the money in four of five as an underdog and five of six when catching 11 points or more.. On the flip side, New Orleans is on pointspread declines of 3-9 on the road, 4-11 against the Western Conference and 4-9 after a SU defeat. Los Angeles is riding ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-2 after a spread cover, 5-2 against the Western Conference and 4-1 against teams with a losing record.
The Hornets are on “over” runs of 4-0-1 on the road, 4-1 on Tuesday and 3-1-1 against the Pacific Division. The Lakers are on “under” stretches of 13-5-1 at home, 7-2 against the Southwest Division and 8-2-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the under is 6-2 in the last eight overall meetings between these teams, but seven of the last nine battles at Staples Center have gone over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(9) Michigan State (5-1, 2-3 ATS) at (10) North Carolina (6-1, 2-4 ATS)
The Spartans look to avenge their loss to North Carolina in last year’s national championship game when they trek to Chapel Hill for an ACC/Big Ten Challenge showdown at the Dean Smith Center.
Michigan State suffered its first defeat Friday in the Legends Classic in Atlantic City, N.J., falling 77-74 to Florida as a 3½-point favorite, but the Spartans rebounded Saturday with a 106-68 pummeling of UMass as a 16½-point favorite in the consolation round. Michigan State has scored at least 74 points in every game this year, averaging 86.2 points per game on 50.4 percent shooting. Defensively, Tom Izzo’s squad is yielding 66 ppg on 37.3 percent shooting, with opponents making just 25.2 percent of their three-point attempts against the Spartans.
The Tar Heels got embarrassed in the 2K Sports Classic championship game back on Nov. 20, losing 87-71 to Syracuse as a 1½-point favorite. But the Tar Heels got healthy last week with a pair of home wins over Gardner-Webb (93-72 in a non-lined contest) and Nevada (80-73, falling short as a 15-point favorite). The victory over Nevada gave coach Roy Williams his 600th career win. Like Michigan State, North Carolina is lighting up the scoreboard with 83.7 ppg (51.8 percent shooting), but it has surrendered 71 ppg despite limiting opponents to just 41.1 percent shooting.
The Tar Heels have scored at least 70 points in 44 of 45 games since the start of last season, hitting the 80-point mark 35 times during this stretch. Also, since the final game of the 2006-2007 regular season, Roy Williams’ squad is 83-9 SU, including 3-0 and ATS against Michigan State. Two of those three victories over the Spartans came in the NCAA Tournament – 81-67 as a 10-point favorite in the second round in 2007 and 89-72 as a 7½-point chalk in last year’s national title game. The other was UNC’s 98-63 rout as a 10-point favorite in last year’s ACC/Big Ten Challenge, a battle that occurred at Ford Field in Detroit, which also was the site of the national championship game rematch.
In last year’s two wins over Michigan State, North Carolina averaged 93.5 ppg while making 47 percent of its shots and held the Spartans to 67.5 ppg (37.2 percent). The Tar Heels also defeated Michigan State 87-71 as a 4½-point favorite in the Final Four en route to their 2005 national title, making UNC 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four meetings with the Spartans – all as a favorite – with those four wins coming by margins of 16, 14, 35 and 17 points.
Michigan State is on ATS hot streaks of 10-3-1 on the highway, 9-4 ATS against non-conference foes and 5-2 as an underdog (all on the road), but it is also in pointspread slumps of 1-5 versus ACC opponents, 5-15-2 on Tuesday and 1-4 after a SU win. North Carolina carries positive ATS trends of 7-3 at home, 40-14 against non-ACC opponents, 6-0 versus the Big Ten, 7-1 against opponents with a winning record and 7-3 following a SU win. However, the Heels have failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 when favored by seven points or less.
The over is 5-1 in the Spartans’ six games this year, and the over is 19-9 in the Tar Heels’ last 28 Tuesday contests and 23-11 in their last 34 after a non-cover. Finally, the total has alternated in the last four matchups between these college hoops powers, with the 2009 national championship contest jumping over the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
Wake Forest (4-1, 1-1 ATS) at (4) Purdue (5-0, 2-2-1 ATS)
Wake Forest looks to rebound from a stunning first loss of the season when it travels to Mackay Arena for a battle with the fourth-ranked Boilermakers in the annual ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
After crushing its first four opponents by an average of 24.5 points per game, the Demon Deacons took the court Saturday as 16-point home favorite against William & Mary and lost 78-68. Wake Forest shot a woeful 35.1 percent from the floor and committed 25 fouls, which led to 35 free-throw attempts for William & Mary compared with just 12 for the Deacons. Wake Forest had held its first four opponents to 56, 58, 60 and 52 points.
Purdue has jumped out to a 5-0 start for the second consecutive season, and the Boilermakers are on a 10-1 roll dating to the start of last year’s Big Ten postseason tournament. Purdue, which is averaging 77 points per game, has been challenged just once this year, and that was on Nov. 23 in the finale of the Paradise Jam tournament in St. Thomas, when it held off 10th-ranked Tennessee 73-72, pushing as a one-point chalk. The Boilers followed that with Saturdays’ 64-38 rout of Central Michigan, coming up just short as a 26½-point home favorite.
Although both compete annually in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, this is the first-ever head-to-head meeting between these schools.
Wake Forest has cashed in six of its last seven games on Tuesday and five of its last six as an underdog. Purdue is in ATS funks of 1-3-1 after a SU victory and 1-5 against the ACC, but it is 5-2 ATS in its last seven when favored by 7 to 12½ points.
The Demon Deacons are riding “over” trends of 9-3 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 9-3 as an underdog, 4-0 after a SU defeat and 4-1 after a non-cover. The over is also 4-1 in the Boilermakers’ last five Tuesday contests, but otherwise Purdue is on “under” streaks of 5-2 in non-league games and 5-0 against the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Maryland (4-2, 2-2 ATS) at Indiana (3-3, 2-3-1 ATS)
The Terrapins try to bounce back from a disappointing showing in the Maui Invitational when they hit the road again, stopping at Assembly Hall in Bloomington for an ACC/Big Ten Challenge contest against Indiana.
Maryland routed Maui Invitational host Chaminade 79-51 as a 26-point favorite on Nov. 23, but it followed that with non-competitive upset losses to Cincinnati (69-57 as a 3½-point favorite) and Wisconsin (78-69 as a two-point underdog). The Terps, who dropped out of the Top 25 with those defeats, outscored their first four opponents by an average of 30.5 points per game (80.3-49.8), allowing 55 points or less in all four wins, but they’ve been outscored by 10.5 ppg (73.5-63) in their two losses.
The Hoosiers halted a three-game SU losing skid and an 0-3-1 ATS slide with Saturday’s 90-72 home rout of Northwestern State, cashing easily as a 13-point favorite. Indiana tallied 45 points in each half in scoring the most points in any game since coach Tom Crean took over at the start of last season, eclipsing the previous high-water mark of 83. The Hoosiers are struggling defensively, though, yielding 69 points or more in four straight games (75.3 ppg average).
These schools squared off twice in an eight-month span in 2002. First, Maryland earned a 64-52 victory as a 7½-point home favorite in the 2002 national championship game, with the Hoosiers gaining a small bit of revenge the following season in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, prevailing 80-74 in overtime as a 3½-point home chalk.
Despite the loss to Wisconsin in Maui, Maryland is still 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games against Big Ten opponents and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a SU defeat, but the Terrapins have failed to cash in five of their last seven Tuesday outings and 13 of 18 when favored by less than seven points. Meanwhile, Indiana remains on ATS slides of 2-5-1 overall, 0-5 after a SU win, 0-3-1 as a ‘dog and 1-6 after a spread-cover.
The over is 4-1 in Maryland’s last five non-conference games, but five of its last seven against the Big Ten have stayed low. The Hoosiers are on “under” runs of 6-2 in non-league action, 4-1 against the ACC and 5-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND and UNDER
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