Dr Bob Free Opinions
Tuesday College Opinions
WRIGHT STATE (-15) over Central Michigan
Rotation #522 - 4 pm Pacific
Wright State returns 4 starters from last season's 20-13 team and the Raiders have a score to settle with Central Michigan, who won 70-68 at home as a 3 1/2 point dog in last year's meeting. Wright State applies to a solid 116-52-3 ATS non-conference home revenge situation and my ratings favor Wright State by 16 points, so the line is favorable. However, Wright State guard Vaughn Duggins is going to play for the first time this year after serving a suspension, and while Duggins is considered one of the best guards in the Horizon League, I think he could be a negative. Wright State played horribly in 4 games last season before Duggins injured his hand and his 40.5% career shooting percentage and ball hogging tendencies could make the Raiders worse than expected rather than better. I'd prefer not to take that chance in a Best Bet, but I'll lean with Wright State based on the good situation and hope that Duggins doesn't mess up the chemistry.
FULLERTON STATE (-4) over New Mexico State
Rotation #530 - 7 pm Pacific
Fullerton State lost their leading scorer from last year's team but the Titans returned the other 4 starters and losing their leading scorer may actually be a benefit. Josh Akognon averaged 23.9 points per game for the Titans last season but he made just 40% of his shots and his one-on-one style often hurt the flow of the offense. Fullerton may not be better offensively without Akognon, but they're certainly not going to be worse and it appears as if the Titans have decided that they'll play some defense this season, as evidenced by the 31% shooting that they held UCLA to in their upset win over the Bruins. UCLA is down this year, but that's still an impressive win and there was nothing fluky about it given that Fullerton made just 3 of 15 3-point shots. New Mexico State was supposed to be about as good as they were last season, but the Aggies lost by 32 point at St. Mary's, by 10 points as a 3 point home dog to New Mexico, and only beat Oklahoma Pandhandle State by 10 points at home. The Aggies obviously miss the services of Troy Gillenwater (12.1 points per game, 51% shooting and 1.3 blocks per game last season) and Wendell McKines (12.1 ppg, 10.0 rebounds and 49% shooting), who are both ineligible until mid-December. I don't overreact to early season variance and my ratings favor Fullerton State by 6 points, but using this year's games only would certainly favor the Titans by more than that. I'll lean with Fullerton State at -5 points or less.
Furman (+10 or more) over RICE
Rotation #587 - 5 pm Pacific
Furman was one of the worst teams in college basketball last season, going just 6-24 despite playing in a lower tier conference (the Southern Conference), but the Paladins return all 5 starters from that team and they are certainly going to be better. Furman has started the season with 2 wins over horrible teams Presbyterian and Dartmouth and they apply to a very strong 47-9-2 ATS road underdog momentum situation tonight. However, my ratings favor Rice by 11 points and the line opened at 10 1/2 points and has gone down. Each 1/2 a point is worth about 2% towards your chances of covering in basketball, so a game with 1 point of negative line value is about 4% less likely to cover than if the line were fair. The situation favoring Furman has a 57% chance of covering at a fair line, but only a 51% chance of covering at +9 1/2 points if the fair line is +11. I'm not willing to give up the line value to make the Paladins a Best Bet, but this is still a profitable play at +10 points and I'll lean with Furman at +10 points or more based on the strong situation. I'd take Furman in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 or more.
Does anyone have his paid plays each day?
Tuesday College Opinions
WRIGHT STATE (-15) over Central Michigan
Rotation #522 - 4 pm Pacific
Wright State returns 4 starters from last season's 20-13 team and the Raiders have a score to settle with Central Michigan, who won 70-68 at home as a 3 1/2 point dog in last year's meeting. Wright State applies to a solid 116-52-3 ATS non-conference home revenge situation and my ratings favor Wright State by 16 points, so the line is favorable. However, Wright State guard Vaughn Duggins is going to play for the first time this year after serving a suspension, and while Duggins is considered one of the best guards in the Horizon League, I think he could be a negative. Wright State played horribly in 4 games last season before Duggins injured his hand and his 40.5% career shooting percentage and ball hogging tendencies could make the Raiders worse than expected rather than better. I'd prefer not to take that chance in a Best Bet, but I'll lean with Wright State based on the good situation and hope that Duggins doesn't mess up the chemistry.
FULLERTON STATE (-4) over New Mexico State
Rotation #530 - 7 pm Pacific
Fullerton State lost their leading scorer from last year's team but the Titans returned the other 4 starters and losing their leading scorer may actually be a benefit. Josh Akognon averaged 23.9 points per game for the Titans last season but he made just 40% of his shots and his one-on-one style often hurt the flow of the offense. Fullerton may not be better offensively without Akognon, but they're certainly not going to be worse and it appears as if the Titans have decided that they'll play some defense this season, as evidenced by the 31% shooting that they held UCLA to in their upset win over the Bruins. UCLA is down this year, but that's still an impressive win and there was nothing fluky about it given that Fullerton made just 3 of 15 3-point shots. New Mexico State was supposed to be about as good as they were last season, but the Aggies lost by 32 point at St. Mary's, by 10 points as a 3 point home dog to New Mexico, and only beat Oklahoma Pandhandle State by 10 points at home. The Aggies obviously miss the services of Troy Gillenwater (12.1 points per game, 51% shooting and 1.3 blocks per game last season) and Wendell McKines (12.1 ppg, 10.0 rebounds and 49% shooting), who are both ineligible until mid-December. I don't overreact to early season variance and my ratings favor Fullerton State by 6 points, but using this year's games only would certainly favor the Titans by more than that. I'll lean with Fullerton State at -5 points or less.
Furman (+10 or more) over RICE
Rotation #587 - 5 pm Pacific
Furman was one of the worst teams in college basketball last season, going just 6-24 despite playing in a lower tier conference (the Southern Conference), but the Paladins return all 5 starters from that team and they are certainly going to be better. Furman has started the season with 2 wins over horrible teams Presbyterian and Dartmouth and they apply to a very strong 47-9-2 ATS road underdog momentum situation tonight. However, my ratings favor Rice by 11 points and the line opened at 10 1/2 points and has gone down. Each 1/2 a point is worth about 2% towards your chances of covering in basketball, so a game with 1 point of negative line value is about 4% less likely to cover than if the line were fair. The situation favoring Furman has a 57% chance of covering at a fair line, but only a 51% chance of covering at +9 1/2 points if the fair line is +11. I'm not willing to give up the line value to make the Paladins a Best Bet, but this is still a profitable play at +10 points and I'll lean with Furman at +10 points or more based on the strong situation. I'd take Furman in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 or more.
Does anyone have his paid plays each day?
I will never forgot a number of years back when these frauds claimed they had some kind of an injury report from the trainers room known only to them about a pitcher who wa injured and wouldn't get out of the 3rd inning.THIS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED OVER & OVER every few months on this forum . :howdy:
they live in the land of make believe with mr rogers
THEIR whole stick is B.S.
I found out the next day from someone who purchased the play that the pitcher in questioned was so "injured" that he went out and threw a four hit shutout-true story!
I followed The Greatest for awhile and he's pretty damn good with his 5* but that's it. Heard alot about linechangers.com so I started following their premiums and they have been money. Alot of linechangers haters out there but I'm in it for one reason and one reason only, TO MAKE MONEY. And believe me that's what these guys do.
