Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...
10 Dime play on the Nets plus the points over the Hawks. New Jersey is currentaly a 3 point undeordog in this match up.
The line on this contest makes absolutely no sense. The Hawks got killed by Boston last night, losing 99-76. And it's also no secret that Atlanta has owned the Nets in their last 4 meetings, winning by an average of 23 points. So given those facts, a LARGE majority of the public is expecting Atlanta to bounce back strong tonight in New Jersey. However, the line is telling us something completely diffeerent.
Line is fishy because the public is willing to lay whatever with the Hawks in this match up, yet it's only at -3? The only reason they would release such a short line is if they wanted you to bet Atlanta. Pretty safe to say, betting the team that oddsmakers want you to bet is almost never a good idea.
So why the Nets in this spot? Situationally this is as good a spot as they're going to get. Returning home, having not played since Saturday, against a team in turmoil, that's playing without rest. No question the Nets will be the better prepared/better rested team in this contest. New Jersey may not be a great team, but they've covered 6 of their L9, and with a huge edge in rest, I'd expect one of their better efforts tonight.
Finally, with Joe Johnson struggling, you give the edge in the backcourt to the Nets. Morrow and Harris are both rock-solid, and fully capable of matching up with Atlanta. Then of course, there's Brook Lopez, who is big enough and athletic enough to match up with Horford. Josh Smith and Marvin Williams may be more talented than their counterparts on the Nets, but one has to wonder will they show up to play (you saw how poorly they played against Boston)? Underestimate New Jersey at your own loss. Nets plus the points over Hawks Tuesday.