VegasButcher (NBA 31-20 Overall)
Milwaukee Bucks -2
One home win against a terrible Denver team, playing at 1PM EST time after a long trip to the East Coast, and all of a sudden the Knicks are once again overvalued in the following game? Prior to that game, NY lost 7 straight, so it’s hard to proclaim the fact that they’ve ‘turned their season around’ all of a sudden. The Bucks have won 3 out of their last 4, beating teams like MEM, OKC, and MIA. Of course we have to remember that MEM was on a b2b and playing their 4th straight road game, while Miami was without Wade. Still, this is an improved team from last year. They rank 2nd overall on D, rebound the ball well, and have solid depth. New York only had 16 assists on 41 made FG’s against Denver, a terrible 39% AST-rate. That indicates that they didn’t play a lot of team-basketball, but relied on individual effort to score points. That worked against Denver’s 25th ranked D, but it will be a lot harder against Milwaukee’s.
Sacramento Kings -2.5
I’ve already mentioned this previously when talking about Sacramento, but if this team didn’t blow a 24-point lead @ DAL and a 26-point lead @ MEM, they’d now be 8-2 on the season, tied at the top of all NBA standings with GSW, HOU, and TOR in the loss column, as well as MEM who would have had 2 losses instead of 1. And look at the opponents this team has faced so far: GSW, POR (home win), LAC (road win), PHX (road win), DAL, MEM, SAS (home win). Pelicans have also played well this year, but against top opponents they’ve struggled. They lost to DAL by 5 at home, @ MEM by 12, and @ POR by 9 last night, after giving the game away in the 4th quarter. They did win @ SAS earlier this year by 1 point, but the Spurs were still jelling after a Championship-hangover, and weren’t playing their best ball. The Pellies are on a b2b tonight, losing by 9 @ POR yesterday, after being outscored by 21 in the 4th quarter. Davis, Evans, and Holiday logged 38/39 minutes each, while Ryan Anderson played 36, his season high. Kings have had 2-days off and are fully rested. Sacramento are a dominant rebounding team (#2 in both Offensive and Defensive rebounding rates), and they rank #1 in FT-rate offensively, attacking the basket often and getting to the line. Pellies rank 23rd in defensive FT-rate allowed, and if fatigue is a factor today, as I think it might be, Kings should have some strong advantages in those key areas.
Milwaukee Bucks -2
One home win against a terrible Denver team, playing at 1PM EST time after a long trip to the East Coast, and all of a sudden the Knicks are once again overvalued in the following game? Prior to that game, NY lost 7 straight, so it’s hard to proclaim the fact that they’ve ‘turned their season around’ all of a sudden. The Bucks have won 3 out of their last 4, beating teams like MEM, OKC, and MIA. Of course we have to remember that MEM was on a b2b and playing their 4th straight road game, while Miami was without Wade. Still, this is an improved team from last year. They rank 2nd overall on D, rebound the ball well, and have solid depth. New York only had 16 assists on 41 made FG’s against Denver, a terrible 39% AST-rate. That indicates that they didn’t play a lot of team-basketball, but relied on individual effort to score points. That worked against Denver’s 25th ranked D, but it will be a lot harder against Milwaukee’s.
Sacramento Kings -2.5
I’ve already mentioned this previously when talking about Sacramento, but if this team didn’t blow a 24-point lead @ DAL and a 26-point lead @ MEM, they’d now be 8-2 on the season, tied at the top of all NBA standings with GSW, HOU, and TOR in the loss column, as well as MEM who would have had 2 losses instead of 1. And look at the opponents this team has faced so far: GSW, POR (home win), LAC (road win), PHX (road win), DAL, MEM, SAS (home win). Pelicans have also played well this year, but against top opponents they’ve struggled. They lost to DAL by 5 at home, @ MEM by 12, and @ POR by 9 last night, after giving the game away in the 4th quarter. They did win @ SAS earlier this year by 1 point, but the Spurs were still jelling after a Championship-hangover, and weren’t playing their best ball. The Pellies are on a b2b tonight, losing by 9 @ POR yesterday, after being outscored by 21 in the 4th quarter. Davis, Evans, and Holiday logged 38/39 minutes each, while Ryan Anderson played 36, his season high. Kings have had 2-days off and are fully rested. Sacramento are a dominant rebounding team (#2 in both Offensive and Defensive rebounding rates), and they rank #1 in FT-rate offensively, attacking the basket often and getting to the line. Pellies rank 23rd in defensive FT-rate allowed, and if fatigue is a factor today, as I think it might be, Kings should have some strong advantages in those key areas.
COACH CAPPER
NCAAF 7:00 pm Massachusetts at Akron Massachusetts 0 for 5 units
This is a game that isn’t going to get much national attention, but it is an under the radar moneymaker. The numbers tell the story for this one. UMASS is coming into this game with an overall record of 8-2 ATS. As I looked more into that, it stood out how they are undefeated ATS in some key categories (after a win, division, conference). On the contrary, I look at Akron’s records, which are the polar opposite. They are 2-8 overall ATS, as well as 0-6 ATS in divisional and conference games. The only real question mark in this one is UMASS QB Blake Frohnapfel. If he doesn’t go, UMASS will rely on Austin Whipple. When you factor in the QB situation and the frigid night temps, look for UMASS to rely heavily on the run game to prevail. Take UMASS in the point spread.
NCAAB 7:00 pm Michigan State at Duke – Under 144.5 for 3 units
An early big-time college basketball game in most cases equates to many variables. This is a neutral site matchup (Indianapolis), meaning that neither team will have a true home court advantage. That being said, in a huge early season neutral site environment, look for nerves, unfamiliarity of the arena, and pace of the game to factor in. Freshmen tend to not adjust fast to the above mentioned. Take the under in this one.
NCAAF 7:00 pm Massachusetts at Akron Massachusetts 0 for 5 units
This is a game that isn’t going to get much national attention, but it is an under the radar moneymaker. The numbers tell the story for this one. UMASS is coming into this game with an overall record of 8-2 ATS. As I looked more into that, it stood out how they are undefeated ATS in some key categories (after a win, division, conference). On the contrary, I look at Akron’s records, which are the polar opposite. They are 2-8 overall ATS, as well as 0-6 ATS in divisional and conference games. The only real question mark in this one is UMASS QB Blake Frohnapfel. If he doesn’t go, UMASS will rely on Austin Whipple. When you factor in the QB situation and the frigid night temps, look for UMASS to rely heavily on the run game to prevail. Take UMASS in the point spread.
NCAAB 7:00 pm Michigan State at Duke – Under 144.5 for 3 units
An early big-time college basketball game in most cases equates to many variables. This is a neutral site matchup (Indianapolis), meaning that neither team will have a true home court advantage. That being said, in a huge early season neutral site environment, look for nerves, unfamiliarity of the arena, and pace of the game to factor in. Freshmen tend to not adjust fast to the above mentioned. Take the under in this one.
