SMART SPORTS INVESTMENTS
Risked 3 units to win 2.86 UNDER 61.5 -105 vs Arkansas State
Risked 3 units to win 2.14 Kansas City Royals +1.5 -140 vs Toronto Blue Jays
Risked 2 units to win 1.67 UNDER 9 -120 vs Toronto Blue Jays
Risked 3 units to win 1.82 Chicago Cubs RL+1.5 -165 vs New York Mets
Risked 2 units to win 1.67 UNDER 7.5 -120 vs Chicago Cubs
Risked 3 units to win 2.86 UNDER 61.5 -105 vs Arkansas State
Risked 3 units to win 2.14 Kansas City Royals +1.5 -140 vs Toronto Blue Jays
Risked 2 units to win 1.67 UNDER 9 -120 vs Toronto Blue Jays
Risked 3 units to win 1.82 Chicago Cubs RL+1.5 -165 vs New York Mets
Risked 2 units to win 1.67 UNDER 7.5 -120 vs Chicago Cubs
Dr Bob
**ARKANSAS STATE (-7) 34 UL Lafayette 18
Tue Oct-20-2015 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 302 Over/Under 61.5 - Matchup Stats
Arkansas State starting quarterback Fredi Knighten missed 3 games but returned last week against South Alabama. Knighten really struggled throwing the ball the first 3 quarters (24 yards on 15 pass plays) but he found his rhythm in the 4th quarter with 147 yards on his final 12 pass plays and led a comeback from down 17-24 to beat South Alabama 49-31. Knighten’s numbers this season aren’t good, even after compensating for facing the defensive units of USC and Missouri the first two weeks, but Knighten was very good last season, averaging 6.7 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback) with just 7 interceptions on 464 pass plays while also adding 937 yards on 180 runs. All of Knighten’s receivers are back from last season so expecting him to return to last year’s form is certainly not a stretch and he looked like he did last year in that 4th quarter last week. However, I will use this year’s poor passing numbers for Arkansas State in my math model (1.4 yppp worse than average) until I get more evidence that Knighten is back to last year’s form. Even at this year’s lower level of passing efficiency the Red Wolves should still move the ball well against a horrible UL Lafayette defense that’s allowed 6.3 yards per play in 4 games against FBS teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average team. Arkansas State would also get a boost if top RB Michael Gordon, who has 490 yards at 6.5 ypr this season and 2389 yards at 6.8 ypr in his career, gets more carries after leaving last week with just 6 runs before exiting with a knee injury. Gordon is listed as probable for this game but his backups are both capable runners (545 yards combined at 5.6 ypr) and the rushing attack should work well regardless of how many carries Gordon gets. The math projects 390 yards at 5.8 yards per play for Arkansas State even if Knighten doesn’t return to last year’s form and if Gordon’s carries are limited – so there is certainly upside potential on that projection.
UL Lafayette is also a bad offensive team with just one weapon – running back Elijah McGuire, who has run for 585 yards in 5 games at 6.0 ypr. However, McGuire has managed to average a modest 5.1 ypr in 4 games against FBS competition and the pass attack is terrible, as the 5.3 yppp the Ragin Cajuns have averaged in FBS games have come against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp to an average team. Arkansas State has a very good pass defense that’s yielded just 5.3 yppp in 5 FBS games against quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defensive team. Arkansas State has been a bit worse than average against the run (5.4 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team) but that is skewed a bit by the 8.7 yprp they allowed in their opener to USC (they’ve been 0.1 yprp better than average since that game). Still, I do expect UL Lafayette to have some success running the ball (about the same success Arkansas State still have on the ground) but they’re projected to average only 3.1 yards per pass play and stopping McGuire is easier when the fear of the pass does not exist. While the math projects 221 yards rushing at 5.8 yprp for ULL it also projects only 340 total yards at 4.4 yards per play, which would not be enough to stay close in this game.
Arkansas State tends to turn it up a notch in conference play and the Red Wolves are on a 22-5-1 ATS run in conference games when not laying 11 points or more, including 4-2 ATS under current coach Blake Anderson (1-0 this year). Arkansas State also applies to a decent 47-17 ATS situation that is based on their back-to-back high scoring efforts the last 2 games (49 points against both Idaho and South Alabama). Aside from the advantage from the line of scrimmage Arkansas State also has excellent special teams units while UL Lafayette struggles in that area. That should help with field position and overall the math calls for an easy win that would be even easier if Knighten plays at the level he did last season (and in the 4th quarter last week). I’ll take Arkansas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less and for 1-Star at up to -9 (Strong Opinion at -9 ½ or -10).
The total opened high at 62 because of the average scoring of these two teams (63.2 total points average for ULL and 65.5 total points average for Arkansas State) but scoring is variable and yardage tells a different story. In 4 games against FBS teams Lafayette’s games have averaged a total of 826 total yards (excluding kneel downs and yards added or subtracted on fumbles) but the Ragin’ Cajuns have faced teams that combine to average 838 total yards per game. Arkansas State has averaged just 735 total combined yards per game while the teams they’ve faced have combined to average 798 combined yards per game. My math model projects just 715 combined total yards and 49.8 total points but that number is higher if Fredi Knighten plays at last year’s level, which I didn’t want to assume when analyzing the side play on Arkansas State. If Knighten plays up to last year’s level then I get a prediction of 52.3 total points. If ULL’s RB McGuire plays at his long term level (his compensated numbers are down this year) then I’d get a prediction of 53.5 total points. So, there is no way the math justifies the high total even if I assume the key offensive players will play better than they have so far this season. Also, Arkansas State’s total combined scoring average is inflated by the 6 defensive touchdowns that the Red Wolves have had in their game. I think the total was based on points and not on yards, which is more predictive. I will consider UNDER (61) a Strong Opinion at 59 points or higher.
Note: The total has dropped a few points after releasing the opinion to my subscribers but I’d still lean with the under at the current line.
**ARKANSAS STATE (-7) 34 UL Lafayette 18
Tue Oct-20-2015 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 302 Over/Under 61.5 - Matchup Stats
Arkansas State starting quarterback Fredi Knighten missed 3 games but returned last week against South Alabama. Knighten really struggled throwing the ball the first 3 quarters (24 yards on 15 pass plays) but he found his rhythm in the 4th quarter with 147 yards on his final 12 pass plays and led a comeback from down 17-24 to beat South Alabama 49-31. Knighten’s numbers this season aren’t good, even after compensating for facing the defensive units of USC and Missouri the first two weeks, but Knighten was very good last season, averaging 6.7 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback) with just 7 interceptions on 464 pass plays while also adding 937 yards on 180 runs. All of Knighten’s receivers are back from last season so expecting him to return to last year’s form is certainly not a stretch and he looked like he did last year in that 4th quarter last week. However, I will use this year’s poor passing numbers for Arkansas State in my math model (1.4 yppp worse than average) until I get more evidence that Knighten is back to last year’s form. Even at this year’s lower level of passing efficiency the Red Wolves should still move the ball well against a horrible UL Lafayette defense that’s allowed 6.3 yards per play in 4 games against FBS teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average team. Arkansas State would also get a boost if top RB Michael Gordon, who has 490 yards at 6.5 ypr this season and 2389 yards at 6.8 ypr in his career, gets more carries after leaving last week with just 6 runs before exiting with a knee injury. Gordon is listed as probable for this game but his backups are both capable runners (545 yards combined at 5.6 ypr) and the rushing attack should work well regardless of how many carries Gordon gets. The math projects 390 yards at 5.8 yards per play for Arkansas State even if Knighten doesn’t return to last year’s form and if Gordon’s carries are limited – so there is certainly upside potential on that projection.
UL Lafayette is also a bad offensive team with just one weapon – running back Elijah McGuire, who has run for 585 yards in 5 games at 6.0 ypr. However, McGuire has managed to average a modest 5.1 ypr in 4 games against FBS competition and the pass attack is terrible, as the 5.3 yppp the Ragin Cajuns have averaged in FBS games have come against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp to an average team. Arkansas State has a very good pass defense that’s yielded just 5.3 yppp in 5 FBS games against quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defensive team. Arkansas State has been a bit worse than average against the run (5.4 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team) but that is skewed a bit by the 8.7 yprp they allowed in their opener to USC (they’ve been 0.1 yprp better than average since that game). Still, I do expect UL Lafayette to have some success running the ball (about the same success Arkansas State still have on the ground) but they’re projected to average only 3.1 yards per pass play and stopping McGuire is easier when the fear of the pass does not exist. While the math projects 221 yards rushing at 5.8 yprp for ULL it also projects only 340 total yards at 4.4 yards per play, which would not be enough to stay close in this game.
Arkansas State tends to turn it up a notch in conference play and the Red Wolves are on a 22-5-1 ATS run in conference games when not laying 11 points or more, including 4-2 ATS under current coach Blake Anderson (1-0 this year). Arkansas State also applies to a decent 47-17 ATS situation that is based on their back-to-back high scoring efforts the last 2 games (49 points against both Idaho and South Alabama). Aside from the advantage from the line of scrimmage Arkansas State also has excellent special teams units while UL Lafayette struggles in that area. That should help with field position and overall the math calls for an easy win that would be even easier if Knighten plays at the level he did last season (and in the 4th quarter last week). I’ll take Arkansas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less and for 1-Star at up to -9 (Strong Opinion at -9 ½ or -10).
The total opened high at 62 because of the average scoring of these two teams (63.2 total points average for ULL and 65.5 total points average for Arkansas State) but scoring is variable and yardage tells a different story. In 4 games against FBS teams Lafayette’s games have averaged a total of 826 total yards (excluding kneel downs and yards added or subtracted on fumbles) but the Ragin’ Cajuns have faced teams that combine to average 838 total yards per game. Arkansas State has averaged just 735 total combined yards per game while the teams they’ve faced have combined to average 798 combined yards per game. My math model projects just 715 combined total yards and 49.8 total points but that number is higher if Fredi Knighten plays at last year’s level, which I didn’t want to assume when analyzing the side play on Arkansas State. If Knighten plays up to last year’s level then I get a prediction of 52.3 total points. If ULL’s RB McGuire plays at his long term level (his compensated numbers are down this year) then I’d get a prediction of 53.5 total points. So, there is no way the math justifies the high total even if I assume the key offensive players will play better than they have so far this season. Also, Arkansas State’s total combined scoring average is inflated by the 6 defensive touchdowns that the Red Wolves have had in their game. I think the total was based on points and not on yards, which is more predictive. I will consider UNDER (61) a Strong Opinion at 59 points or higher.
Note: The total has dropped a few points after releasing the opinion to my subscribers but I’d still lean with the under at the current line.
