Brandon Lang
Tuesday's Selections ...
20 DIME - UTEP MINERS - Dangerous home dog tonight.
UTEP has perhaps one of the more impressive wins of the year in college football and the general sports fan probably knows nothing about it.
Playing at home, which is where they are tonight, they shredded a Houston team 58-41 as a 14 1/2 point home underdog.
A Houston team that was coming off a huge win at Oklahoma State out of the Big 12.
Now I also understand this UTEP team lost at home to Kansas, and went on the road and lost to Memphis but is Tulsa really that good to be laying more than a touchdown here?
I look at Tulsa on the road at Rice, a game they won 27-10 against a Rice team that gave up 63 at home to Navy and just had a 49-spot put on them by East Carolina.
It was an inspired effort by Tulsa at home last Wednesday against Boise State but if weren't for Boise head coach Chris Petersen kicking a field goal on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line instead of punching it in with 3 minutes to go 3rd quarter, they don't cover that game.
UTEP can play folks, and like I said, you don't start hanging a 58-spot on Houston at home unless you have some talent to get it done in this spot here.
I will gladly grab the touchdown and a hook with UTEP and just like Tulsa last week, look for this home dog to hunt and figure out a way to stay within the number.
10 DIME - LA ANGELS - Momentum back to the Angels.
After the dramatic win last night I look for the Angels bats to come alive in the warmth of Orange County and a 2nd look at CC Sabathia.
The bottom line is the Angels will get some scoring opportunities today but unlike New York where they didn't cash in, I like them to cash in here tonight.
As for Scott Kazmir, he is chomping at the bit to get out there and get the job done after his poor playoff start at Boston which saw him get hit for 5 runs in 6 innings of a 7-6 Angel comeback win.
All told, he has gone 2-2 in with a 1.73 ERA in 8 starts since joining the Angels while Los Angeles won 6 of those 8 starts overall.
In 14 career starts against the Yankees Kazmir is 6-5 with a rock solid ERA of 2.66. Great spot and great price to back the Angels.
I have been waiting for a CC Sabathia implosion and my gut tells me his first one is going to happen tonight.
Even with his game one win over the Angels Sabathia is still 6-7 lifetime against the Halos with an ERA around 5 so again, the Angels will be confident.
Los Angeles evens up the series 2-2 with this win tonight.
LA ANGELS (Kazmir over Sabathia)
FREE SELECTION - NY YANKEES-LA ANGELS UNDER
Tuesday's Selections ...
20 DIME - UTEP MINERS - Dangerous home dog tonight.
UTEP has perhaps one of the more impressive wins of the year in college football and the general sports fan probably knows nothing about it.
Playing at home, which is where they are tonight, they shredded a Houston team 58-41 as a 14 1/2 point home underdog.
A Houston team that was coming off a huge win at Oklahoma State out of the Big 12.
Now I also understand this UTEP team lost at home to Kansas, and went on the road and lost to Memphis but is Tulsa really that good to be laying more than a touchdown here?
I look at Tulsa on the road at Rice, a game they won 27-10 against a Rice team that gave up 63 at home to Navy and just had a 49-spot put on them by East Carolina.
It was an inspired effort by Tulsa at home last Wednesday against Boise State but if weren't for Boise head coach Chris Petersen kicking a field goal on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line instead of punching it in with 3 minutes to go 3rd quarter, they don't cover that game.
UTEP can play folks, and like I said, you don't start hanging a 58-spot on Houston at home unless you have some talent to get it done in this spot here.
I will gladly grab the touchdown and a hook with UTEP and just like Tulsa last week, look for this home dog to hunt and figure out a way to stay within the number.
10 DIME - LA ANGELS - Momentum back to the Angels.
After the dramatic win last night I look for the Angels bats to come alive in the warmth of Orange County and a 2nd look at CC Sabathia.
The bottom line is the Angels will get some scoring opportunities today but unlike New York where they didn't cash in, I like them to cash in here tonight.
As for Scott Kazmir, he is chomping at the bit to get out there and get the job done after his poor playoff start at Boston which saw him get hit for 5 runs in 6 innings of a 7-6 Angel comeback win.
All told, he has gone 2-2 in with a 1.73 ERA in 8 starts since joining the Angels while Los Angeles won 6 of those 8 starts overall.
In 14 career starts against the Yankees Kazmir is 6-5 with a rock solid ERA of 2.66. Great spot and great price to back the Angels.
I have been waiting for a CC Sabathia implosion and my gut tells me his first one is going to happen tonight.
Even with his game one win over the Angels Sabathia is still 6-7 lifetime against the Halos with an ERA around 5 so again, the Angels will be confident.
Los Angeles evens up the series 2-2 with this win tonight.
LA ANGELS (Kazmir over Sabathia)
FREE SELECTION - NY YANKEES-LA ANGELS UNDER
Randall the Handle 10/20
NHL
St. Louis +1.76 over PITTSBURGH (REG) Pinnacle
This one is rather simple and it goes something like this; when a take-back like this is offered on the Blue Notes you can almost always pencil me in and I make no exception here. Not that the Blues are the best team on ice but nobody tries harder and nobody wants to win more. On top of that, they have plenty of talent and they’re just getting better. The Blues are coming off a strong effort in Anaheim in which they won 5-0 and they finally appear to be over their jet lag after its European trip to start the year. The Blues are a very appealing pooch. The Pens are hot and there’s really nothing more to say about them. They seemed determined to prove last year was no fluke but they really haven’t had a tough time of it yet. Four of the Penguins seven wins have come against the Islanders, Leafs, Bolts and Canes. The other three have come against the Coyotes, Flyers and Sens and while those are good wins they Pens were out-shot in all three of those games. Anyway, this really isn’t about playing against the Pens, it’s more about taking back a big price on the Blues, as this team always has a chance to win. Play: St. Louis +1.76 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta +1.10 over MONTREAL (REG) Pinnacle
The Thrashers defense leaves plenty to be desired but it seems to be working for them right now and it’s not like they’re playing the Sharkies. Furthermore, Atlanta has won four of five and that includes its most recent win, a 4-2 victory over the previously red-hot Sabres. They also have wins in St. Louis and in New Jersey. The Thrashers have scored four goals or more in all but one of their games while the Habs are tooth and nails to score even a single goal. Montreal offers up nothing as the chalk and while they were all over the Sens in the first period last game, frustration set in again and they couldn’t keep it going, eventually losing 3-1. It’s one thing to be talented and in a funk but the Habs are not and now pressure is mounting big time after its fifth consecutive loss. Only once this year have they scored more than twice in a game and that is because of a defense that can’t move the puck crisply out of its own end. There’s not a single team in the NHL that is unworthy of taking back a price against the Habs and certainly the Thrashers are among that group. The Habs are a bigger hoax than the Balloon Boy and not even Chris Angel could make this illusion work. Play: Atlanta +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
NHL
St. Louis +1.76 over PITTSBURGH (REG) Pinnacle
This one is rather simple and it goes something like this; when a take-back like this is offered on the Blue Notes you can almost always pencil me in and I make no exception here. Not that the Blues are the best team on ice but nobody tries harder and nobody wants to win more. On top of that, they have plenty of talent and they’re just getting better. The Blues are coming off a strong effort in Anaheim in which they won 5-0 and they finally appear to be over their jet lag after its European trip to start the year. The Blues are a very appealing pooch. The Pens are hot and there’s really nothing more to say about them. They seemed determined to prove last year was no fluke but they really haven’t had a tough time of it yet. Four of the Penguins seven wins have come against the Islanders, Leafs, Bolts and Canes. The other three have come against the Coyotes, Flyers and Sens and while those are good wins they Pens were out-shot in all three of those games. Anyway, this really isn’t about playing against the Pens, it’s more about taking back a big price on the Blues, as this team always has a chance to win. Play: St. Louis +1.76 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta +1.10 over MONTREAL (REG) Pinnacle
The Thrashers defense leaves plenty to be desired but it seems to be working for them right now and it’s not like they’re playing the Sharkies. Furthermore, Atlanta has won four of five and that includes its most recent win, a 4-2 victory over the previously red-hot Sabres. They also have wins in St. Louis and in New Jersey. The Thrashers have scored four goals or more in all but one of their games while the Habs are tooth and nails to score even a single goal. Montreal offers up nothing as the chalk and while they were all over the Sens in the first period last game, frustration set in again and they couldn’t keep it going, eventually losing 3-1. It’s one thing to be talented and in a funk but the Habs are not and now pressure is mounting big time after its fifth consecutive loss. Only once this year have they scored more than twice in a game and that is because of a defense that can’t move the puck crisply out of its own end. There’s not a single team in the NHL that is unworthy of taking back a price against the Habs and certainly the Thrashers are among that group. The Habs are a bigger hoax than the Balloon Boy and not even Chris Angel could make this illusion work. Play: Atlanta +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Dave Malinsky
Playoff Special - Yankees/Angels Game #4
1.5 RUNS,LOS ANGELES ANGELS(Kazmir) -vs- New York Yankees (Sabathia)
4* ANGELS Run Line +1.5 runs -145 over NY YANKEES
As we wrote in backing the Angels yesterday, despite the 2-0 New York opening, this series is far from over. And the oddsmakers and betting markets allow us to fit a major value equation with today?s Run Line, which puts the best of the Angel advantages into play, while not having to rely on a bullpen that performed well on Monday, but still brings too many arms that are not quite ready for this pressure. Let?s get to the meat and potatoes. Although we have been a ?C. C. Rider? (does anyone remember that Chuck Willis wrote the original?) through Sabathia?s first two playoff starts, and his stuff has been special since the All Star break, every bit of that form is being priced here. So much so that a Yankee team that brings issues in other areas is being priced entirely wrong in terms of getting a break-out win of two runs or more. We can start with an offense that has scored 3, 4, 4, 3 and 4 runs in the regulation nine innings of the last five games. And we can go to a bullpen that can be brought down to the level of their Angel counterparts for this setting. If there is a closer situation, Mariano Rivera will be working for the fourth time in five days, off of 59 pitches, and that 2.1 inning stint on Saturday night adds an extra layer to the pitch count. Meanwhile there is no way of projecting Joba Chamberlain?s confidence level after he served up those batting practice pitches in game #3, and particularly note the 1.2 innings from Phil Hughes, who did not have a situation all season in which he pitched more than an inning, and then came back the next day. Sabathia is terrific, but the surrounding cast tonight is not all that special. The Angels not only have renewed confidence now, but this is the very reason that they brought Scott Kazmir on board. A legitimate case can be made that he has been tougher on this lineup than any pitcher in the Major Leagues, and we will let some of the numbers speak for themselves as we go down the Yankee batting order ? Derek Jeter .111 (4-36 with 11 strikeouts), Johnny Damon .167 (6-36 with seven strikeouts), Mark Teixeira .636 (his 6-11 is a rare problem spot, but there are no home runs in that sampling), Alex Rodriguez .125 (3-24 with seven strikeouts), Hideki Matsui .179 (5-28 with five strikeouts), Jorge Posada .440 (11-25, but eight of the hits were singles), Robinson Cano .154 (4-26 with nine strikeouts), Nick Swisher .185 (5-27 with six strikeouts), and Melky Cabrera .400 (8-20, but six of the hits singles and only two rbi?s). Those are imposing numbers, and having worked to a 2.55 tune in 42.1 innings so far in an Angel uniform, a span in which they sport a 6-1 tally as +1.5, his form is there also. We will make our ticket the +1.5, using Kazmir to keep the Angels in the hunt, and the ability of the Angels to peck away late vs. the Yankee bullpen, without having to rely on Mike Scioscia?s relief corps. And the current market price more than allows for that play.
Playoff Special - Yankees/Angels Game #4
1.5 RUNS,LOS ANGELES ANGELS(Kazmir) -vs- New York Yankees (Sabathia)
4* ANGELS Run Line +1.5 runs -145 over NY YANKEES
As we wrote in backing the Angels yesterday, despite the 2-0 New York opening, this series is far from over. And the oddsmakers and betting markets allow us to fit a major value equation with today?s Run Line, which puts the best of the Angel advantages into play, while not having to rely on a bullpen that performed well on Monday, but still brings too many arms that are not quite ready for this pressure. Let?s get to the meat and potatoes. Although we have been a ?C. C. Rider? (does anyone remember that Chuck Willis wrote the original?) through Sabathia?s first two playoff starts, and his stuff has been special since the All Star break, every bit of that form is being priced here. So much so that a Yankee team that brings issues in other areas is being priced entirely wrong in terms of getting a break-out win of two runs or more. We can start with an offense that has scored 3, 4, 4, 3 and 4 runs in the regulation nine innings of the last five games. And we can go to a bullpen that can be brought down to the level of their Angel counterparts for this setting. If there is a closer situation, Mariano Rivera will be working for the fourth time in five days, off of 59 pitches, and that 2.1 inning stint on Saturday night adds an extra layer to the pitch count. Meanwhile there is no way of projecting Joba Chamberlain?s confidence level after he served up those batting practice pitches in game #3, and particularly note the 1.2 innings from Phil Hughes, who did not have a situation all season in which he pitched more than an inning, and then came back the next day. Sabathia is terrific, but the surrounding cast tonight is not all that special. The Angels not only have renewed confidence now, but this is the very reason that they brought Scott Kazmir on board. A legitimate case can be made that he has been tougher on this lineup than any pitcher in the Major Leagues, and we will let some of the numbers speak for themselves as we go down the Yankee batting order ? Derek Jeter .111 (4-36 with 11 strikeouts), Johnny Damon .167 (6-36 with seven strikeouts), Mark Teixeira .636 (his 6-11 is a rare problem spot, but there are no home runs in that sampling), Alex Rodriguez .125 (3-24 with seven strikeouts), Hideki Matsui .179 (5-28 with five strikeouts), Jorge Posada .440 (11-25, but eight of the hits were singles), Robinson Cano .154 (4-26 with nine strikeouts), Nick Swisher .185 (5-27 with six strikeouts), and Melky Cabrera .400 (8-20, but six of the hits singles and only two rbi?s). Those are imposing numbers, and having worked to a 2.55 tune in 42.1 innings so far in an Angel uniform, a span in which they sport a 6-1 tally as +1.5, his form is there also. We will make our ticket the +1.5, using Kazmir to keep the Angels in the hunt, and the ability of the Angels to peck away late vs. the Yankee bullpen, without having to rely on Mike Scioscia?s relief corps. And the current market price more than allows for that play.
Gina
Tuesday, October 20th, 2009 7:55 p.m. est.
New York Yankees (108-60) at Los Angeles Angels (101-67)
(L) CC Sabathia (2-0) vs. (L) Scott Kazmir (0-0)
New York CC Sabathia (21-8, 3.24 ERA) went 12-6 with a 3.53ERA in 19 regular-season road starts and New York has won 13 of Sabathia’s last 14 starts, six of his last 7 on the road. The lefthander is 6-7 with a 4.42 ERA in 15 career starts against the Angels. He’s 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in two starts this postseason. Sabathia is pitching on three days’ rest
Los Angeles Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.99) went 2-2 with a 1.73 ERA in six regular-season starts and is 6-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 14 career starts against the Yankees. The Angels are 5-1 in the lefthander's last 6 starts.
New York Yankees have dropped five of their last six games versus Los Angeles at Angel Stadium and 21 of its last 29. Take the home dog. The Angels are 7-1 in their last 8 games at Angel Stadium and the home team in this series has won 17of the last 21 meetings.
Los Angeles Angels +120
Tuesday, October 20th, 2009 7:55 p.m. est.
New York Yankees (108-60) at Los Angeles Angels (101-67)
(L) CC Sabathia (2-0) vs. (L) Scott Kazmir (0-0)
New York CC Sabathia (21-8, 3.24 ERA) went 12-6 with a 3.53ERA in 19 regular-season road starts and New York has won 13 of Sabathia’s last 14 starts, six of his last 7 on the road. The lefthander is 6-7 with a 4.42 ERA in 15 career starts against the Angels. He’s 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in two starts this postseason. Sabathia is pitching on three days’ rest
Los Angeles Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.99) went 2-2 with a 1.73 ERA in six regular-season starts and is 6-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 14 career starts against the Yankees. The Angels are 5-1 in the lefthander's last 6 starts.
New York Yankees have dropped five of their last six games versus Los Angeles at Angel Stadium and 21 of its last 29. Take the home dog. The Angels are 7-1 in their last 8 games at Angel Stadium and the home team in this series has won 17of the last 21 meetings.
Los Angeles Angels +120
