jeff benton tuesday
TUESDAY'S ACTION
10 DIME baseball playoff selection on the RANGERS over the Rays in Game 5 of the ALDS. The Rangers are a +105 undardog both here in Vegas and offshore, and I’ll be very surprised if we see much moviement in that number throughout the day. Note that you must specify Cliff Lee as the Rangers’ starting pitlher. If Lee does not start, this play is VOID!
RANGERS
Here’s what this play comes down to: Whom do you trust more tonight, the Rangers’ Cliff Lee or the Rays’ David Price. I’ll let the numbers prove to you that the unequivocal answer is Lee.
The Rangers’ southpaw dominated the Rays in Game 1, allowing just one run (a solo homer) on five hits in seven innings, walking none and striking out 10. Lee has now made four starts against Tampa Bay this year (three on the road) and he’s got 35 strikaouts against just two walks in 30 2/3 innings (he was a workhorse in all four games, pitching 7, 7 2/3, 8 and 8 innings). Take away one bad eight inning on Aug. 16 in Tampa – he gave up four runs in the frame – and Lee has limited the Rays to nine earned runs in his four starts against the Rays (2.64 ERA).
Going back to a 4-1 win over the Yankees on Sept. 12 and Lee is 4-1 in his last five starts and in those four victories he gave up a total of three earned runs in 30 innings (0.90 ERA), surrendering just 17 hits and four walks with 31 strikeouts.
All those numbers by themselves would justify this selection, but none are as impressive as this: Lee is 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, a .213 batting average-against and a 43-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in six postseason starts the last two Octobers. If that’s not the definiition of a big-game pitcher, I don’t know what is. Throw in the fact that the Rays are batting just .185 in their last 10 games (.170 against lefties) and I just don’t see any scenario in which Lee doesn’t dominate tonight.
At the same time, how can you have any confidence that Price will step up and deliver in such a pressure-packed situation? Yes, the 25-year-old lefty was outstanding in the regular season and is a legit Cy Young candidate. However, when the spotlight shined brightest in Game 1, Price wilted, giving up five runs (four earned) on nine hits (two home runs) in 6 2/3 innings. Keep in mind this is a guy who went 9-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 16 regular-season home starts, giving up just eight home runs in 114 2/3 innings.
One more point about Price: He’s not fared well against Texas’ stacked lineup, going 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA in five career starts.
Bottom line: The Rays deserve a lot of credit for climbing out of an 0-2 series hole and forcing a decislve Game 5. And yes, they have all the momentum COMING IN to tonight’s game. But you know the old cliché about baseball, right? Momentum lasts as long as the next day’s starting pitcher. Tonight, Texas has the edge on the mound, and anything less than a complete-game gem from Lee would be a complete shock.