Larry Ness
Legend Play
There has been a HUGE 'move' on Tulsa in this game since bowl lines were first announced back in early December and while I wish everyone could play this game at the "original number," I have no major concerns that laying the small price on Tulsa now, will result in a different "ATS outcome" than if one would have taken Tulsa as a small underdog or at "pick'em," earlier in the bowl season. Ball State is in a similar situation to Alabama, as it's perfect season was foiled in a conference championship game. However, while Alabama lost to red-hot Florida in the SEC title game, Ball State lost to an overachieving Buffalo team, as QB Nate Davis three an interception and was involved in FOUR lost fumbles, two of which were returned for TDs of 92 and 74 yards. Ball State lost 42-24 to the Bulls in the MAC championship game, despite a 503-301 yardage advantage. We saw Alabama come out "flat as a pancake" vs Utah and that was with Nick Saban as its head coach. Ball State, which was released by the MAC from the Motor City Bowl to get a more favorable and attractive matchup here with Tulsa, must deal with the fact that former-alum and head coach for the last six years (Brady Hoke), used Ball State's record-setting season in 2008 to get the San Diego State job (Hoke was named the MAC's coach-of-the-year in 2008). Taking over for Ball State in this game is Stan Parrish, who has been the offensive coordinator for the team since 2006. Parrish probably never thought he'd get another shot as a Division I head coach after recording a 2-30-1 mark in three years at Kansas State in the late 1980s. However, he's been in the assistant ranks for years (many stops) and now gets his chance. Ball State QB Nate Davis (66.9 percent / 3,446 yards / 26 TDs and 7 INTs) had a terrific season and MiQuale Lewis (1,701 / 5.6 YPC / 22 TDs) leads a running game which averaged 192.7 YPG (5.1 YPC / 31 TDs). Ball averaged 36.3 PPG but the team's offensive numbers pale in comparison to Tulsa's. Tulsa enters averaging 47.4 PPG and 565.1 YPG, figures that both rank second in the nation. QB Johnson completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 3.866 yards with 43 TDs and 18 INTs. He led the nation in QB passing efficiency for most of the year, until a terrible outing in the C-USA championship game (five INTs and a fumble). While Ball State has an excellent running attack spearheaded by Lewis, Tulsa averages just over 60 more yards per game on the ground (254.8 / 5.4 YPC / 37 TDs) with a plethora of RBs. Adams (1,316 / 5.8 YPC / 10 TDs) is the lead back but four other payers have run for between 251 and 467 yards, with individual averages of 6.4, 7.9, 7.7 and 6.6 YPC! Four of Johnson's receivers have at least seven TD catches plus part-time TE Collums, has six catches in his six games, FIVE of which have been for TDs. This is really a unique team, one which scored 77 points in a win over UTEP, yet allowed 70 points in a loss to Houston. Both team's have major weaknesses on defense but this will be a 'shootout,' so defense will NOT the decide the winner (although turnovers, may?). One can't handicap turnovers, so I won't bother to try. Ball State didn't play anyone of note outside of the MAC in 2008 and the four MAC teams in this year's bowl season have been just dreadful. Central Michigan was the first conference team in action, losing 24-21 in the Motor City Bowl to a 6-6 FAU team from the Sun Belt, as a TD favorite. Northern Illinois scored a single TD against a 7-5 La Tech team in the Independence Bowel (lost 17-10). Western Michigan fell behind Rice 38-0 in a 38-14 loss in the Texas Bowl and just this past Saturday, Buffalo lost 38-20 to U Conn in the International Bowl, only staying that close because of FIVE turnovers by the Huskies. In all, the MAC's first four bowl representatives have been outscored by an average of 29.3 PPG-to-16.3! Ball State has been to four bowls since 1989, losing all four, including 52-30 to Rutgers in LY's International Bowl. Some history buffs may want to claim six career bowls for Ball St, as the team appeared in two Grantland Rice Bowls as well, but let me note that in 1965 Ball Sate tied Tennessee Tech 14-14 and in 1967 lost to Eastern Kentucky 27-13 in those games. Getting back to Tulsa, while the Ball State program has lost its head coach to San Diego St (is that really an improvement?), Tulsa's Todd Graham just agreed to a new 10-year contract on New Year's Day. Tulsa did lose to East Carolina 27-24 in the C-USA title game (SEVEN turnovers did them in) but the Golden Hurricane (at 10-3) have reached double-digit wins two seasons in a row for the first time in school history. The 10 wins matches a school record accomplished six previous times and a win here sets a new school record. Graham was quoted as saying, "Our program is about winning championships and we've got a chance to win a bowl championship." Tulsa beat Bowling Green (another MAC school) in last year's GMAC Bowl 63-7, outgaining the Falcons 562-229 in yards. It's "deja vu all over again," here.
Legend Play on TULSA