STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/21/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 1/21/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Hot Teams
-- Nets won seven of their last eight games (5-3 last eight HF).
-- Trailblazers won five of their last six games. Oklahoma City won four of their last five.
-- Jazz won four of their last five home games.
•Cold Teams
-- Magic lost ten of their last eleven games (0-7 last seven AU).
-- Heat lost four of their last six games. Boston lost 11 of last 12 games, covered one of last four.
-- Kings lost three of last four games but covered five of last seven. New Orleans lost eight of last nine games, but covered four of last five.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last six games.
•Totals
-- 10 of last 11 Orlando road games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Miami games went over total. 14 of 21 Boston road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six New Orleans games.
-- 15 of 21 Portland road games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Utah games went over the total.
•Series Records
-- Nets won four of last five games with Orlando.
-- Heat won five of last seven games with Boston, but Celtics covered the last four meetings.
-- Pelicans won four of last five games with Sacramento.
-- Thunder is 0-2 versus Portland this year, losing by 7-4 points.
-- Minnesota beat Jazz by 26 Saturday, its first win in last six games versus Utah.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- MIAMI is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 108.7, OPPONENT 105.1.
-- OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-7 UNDER (+15.3 Units) after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA CITY 104.1, OPPONENT 93.9.
-- PORTLAND is 9-23 (-16.3 Units) against the 1rst half line after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 47.5, OPPONENT 52.7.
-- BROOKLYN is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BROOKLYN 51.5, OPPONENT 50.4.
-- MONTY WILLIAMS is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
The average score was Williams 96.6, OPPONENT 90.9.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- ORLANDO is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 89.7, OPPONENT 105.1.
-- PORTLAND is 22-6 OVER (+15.4 Units) versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 107.1, OPPONENT 104.6.
-- MIAMI is 38-67 (-35.5 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games versus teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 48.3, OPPONENT 46.6.
-- UTAH is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game this season.
The average score was UTAH 38.5, OPPONENT 50.9.
-- JACQUE VAUGHN is 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) versus poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was VAUGHN 93.5, OPPONENT 103.8.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.
(56-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.8%, +44.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -226
The average score in these games was: Team 107.7, Opponent 97.2 (Average point differential = +10.5)
The situation's record this season is: (9-3, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-3, +21 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (109-38, +1.7 units).
-- Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=46% on the season, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less.
(23-3 since 1996.) (88.5%, +19.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (23-3)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.4
The average score in these games was: Team 106, Opponent 94.7 (Average point differential = +11.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (53.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%), in January games.
(38-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.1%, +22.6 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 207.4
The average score in these games was: Team 102.1, Opponent 102.1 (Total points scored = 204.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 30 (55.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (68-54).
-- Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (NEW ORLEANS) - playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%).
(84-33 since 1996.) (71.8%, +47.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.2, Opponent 54.8 (Total first half points scored = 108)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-15).
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Tuesday's Match-ups
#501 BOSTON @ #502 MIAMI
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, CSN New England Boston, Sun Sports Miami - Line: Heat -9.5, Total: 197.5) - The slumping Boston Celtics may run into an angry Miami Heat team when they visit the Heat on Tuesday night. Miami capped a 2-4 road trip with a 121-114 loss at Atlanta on Monday that snapped the Heat's nine-game winning streak in the series and caused several players to look within at a lackluster defensive effort. "Defensively, we're not ready to play," center Chris Bosh told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, specifically acknowledging the 71 points Miami surrendered in the first half.
Fortunately for the suddenly sliding Heat, they get to return home for the first time in two weeks to take on a Celtics team that has topped the 100-point mark just five times during a 2-14 skid. Boston shot 36.7 percent from the floor and made only three 3-pointers in a 93-91 loss at hapless Orlando on Sunday. The previous meeting between the teams, also in Miami, resulted in a thrilling 111-110 win for Boston, as Jeff Green hit a game-winning 3-pointer falling out of bounds to stun the Heat.
•ABOUT THE CELTICS (14-28 SU, 20-21-1 ATS): Tuesday will mark the third game for point guard Rajon Rondo as he works his way back into action after returning from ACL surgery. Rondo has averaged seven points and four assists in limited action through his first two games, getting a slight uptick to 21 minutes in the loss at Orlando. Rondo has faced the Heat just once since the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals, during which he averaged 20.9 points and 11.3 assists and put forth a remarkable 44-point effort at Miami in Game 2.
•ABOUT THE HEAT (29-12 SU, 18-23-0 ATS): The 2-4 road trip was made even more frustrating for Miami due to the fact that five of the teams had losing records and the team needed overtime to pick up one of the two victories. With San Antonio and Oklahoma City on the back end of the current four-game homestand - as well as another six-game road trip on the horizon with games against the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State and the Thunder again - the possibility of a larger swoon is there if the Heat doesn't find a way to improve on the defensive end. A return to health for Dwyane Wade would help, as the star swingman has missed two straight games and three of the last five, but is hopeful for a return to the court Tuesday.
•PREGAME NOTES: Celtics PG Jerryd Bayless left Sunday's loss with a sprained left toe and is doubtful for this one.... Heat SG Ray Allen made all four of his 3-pointers Monday after hitting only 1-of-18 in his previous four games.... Miami is 11-2 at home against Eastern Conference teams.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON covered the spread 522 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 478 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 739 times, while BOSTON won 245 times. In 1000 simulated games, 530 games went over the total, while 470 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, BOSTON covered the first half line 549 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 451 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 519 games went over first half total, while 481 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BOSTON is 49-33 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--BOSTON is 42-40 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--43 of 80 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--BOSTON is 44-35 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--41 of 79 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Celtics are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
--Over is 22-6 in the last 28 meetings in Miami.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Celtics are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Tuesday games.
--Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#503 ORLANDO @ #504 BROOKLYN
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, FSN Florida Orlando, YES Brooklyn - Line: Nets -9.5, Total: 193.5) - The new year has been much kinder to the Brooklyn Nets than to the Orlando Magic. The Nets are 7-1 in 2014 and have surged into seventh place in the Eastern Conference as they prepare to host the struggling Magic on Tuesday. Orlando is coming off a 93-91 home win over Boston on Sunday - its first win of the calendar year -- and owns the second-worst record in the league.
The Nets were a season-worst 11 games under .500 after a 21-point loss at San Antonio on New Year's Eve, but they've held seven of their last eight opponents under 100 points and climbed back into the playoff picture. "We're putting games together, we're putting quarters together," veteran Paul Pierce told reporters. "It's not just one quarter or two quarters or a half. We're being more consistent." The Magic snapped a 10-game skid Sunday and are looking for their first road win since Dec. 16 at Chicago -- they're 3-17 away from home and have lost six straight road games.
•ABOUT THE MAGIC (11-30 SU, 17-24-0 ATS): Orlando used only seven players against the Celtics as all five starters played at least 35 minutes. The Magic can go a bit deeper off the bench, even with center Nikola Vucevic sidelined with a concussion, but coach Jacque Vaughn held reserves Andrew Nicholson and Maurice Harkless out Sunday. Arron Afflalo (20.9 points) has carried the Magic at the offensive end and is coming off one of his best all-around games with 20 points, 13 rebounds and six assists against Boston.
•ABOUT THE NETS (17-22 SU, 19-20-0 ATS): Brooklyn point guard Deron Williams (ankles) returned from a five-game absence Monday but was used in a reserve role - at Williams' suggestion - rather than upset the chemistry that seems to have formed over the past couple of weeks. "Just because we've been playing so well with that lineup," Williams told reporters. "Why shake things up? It doesn't matter if I come off (the bench) or start." Joe Johnson has played a big role in the resurgence, averaging 24.5 points over the past six games.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Magic are 1-12 without Vucevic, who has missed the past seven games.... Nets PF Andray Blatche has recorded back-to-back double-doubles for the first time since January 2013. Blatche hasn't had a streak of three double-doubles since January 2011.... Orlando has had five or more players score in double figures an NBA-high 29 times this season but is just 9-20 in those games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the spread 634 times, while BROOKLYN covered the spread 366 times. *EDGE against the spread =ORLANDO. In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN won the game straight up 602 times, while ORLANDO won 377 times. In 1000 simulated games, 506 games went over the total, while 494 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the first half line 613 times, while BROOKLYN covered the first half line 387 times. *EDGE against first half line =ORLANDO. In 1000 simulated games, 530 games went under first half total, while 470 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BROOKLYN is 34-28 against the spread versus ORLANDO since 1996.
--ORLANDO is 36-29 straight up against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--39 of 63 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--BROOKLYN is 33-30 versus the first half line when playing against ORLANDO since 1996.
--37 of 62 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Under is 18-6-2 in the last 26 meetings.
--Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Brooklyn.
--Magic are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Magic are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
--Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Under is 10-1 in Magic last 11 road games.
--Nets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Under is 5-0-1 in Nets last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
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#505 SACRAMENTO @ #506 NEW ORLEANS
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, CSN Sacramento, FSN New Orleans - Line: Pick, Total: 205) - A pair of struggling teams come together in New Orleans on Tuesday as the Sacramento Kings pay visit to the Pelicans. Sacramento will play its fifth consecutive game away from home and the Kings are just 1-3 on the road trip thus far. Guard Isaiah Thomas, who tallied a career-best 38 points in Sunday's loss to Oklahoma City, said the bottom line is simple, telling the Sacramento Bee, "It's about winning. At the end of the day, if you don't win, nothing else matters."
New Orleans snapped a season-high eight game losing streak on Monday with a 95-92 decision over the Grizzlies in Memphis. The Pelicans are 7-16 since pulling to one game over .500 in early December and have been crippled by injuries, dressing only 10 players last time out with an ever-growing injury list. “We try to go out and give it everything we’ve got,” center Jason Smith told the New Orleans Times-Picayune, adding, “It’s been a tough year for us for injuries.
•ABOUT THE KINGS (14-25 SU, 17-21-1 ATS): Sacramento has failed to eclipse the 100-point mark in each of its three losses on the current road swing and was done in on Sunday by sloppiness, more than anything else. "I feel like I've got to be tougher with the ball," said center DeMarcus Cousins, who committed a game-high seven turnovers. Coach Michael Malone wasn't pleased with what appeared to be a mentally defeated team at halftime, despite trailing by only five points. "We're down five at halftime," he said, "and the locker room felt like we were down by 20. That's something about our team that I have yet to figure out.”
•ABOUT THE PELICANS (16-24 SU, 17-21-2 ATS): Smith will undergo surgery on Wednesday to remove floating cartilage in his knee, joining Ryan Anderson (herniated disc) and Jrue Holiday (leg stress fracture) as players that will miss a significant amount of time. Anderson is likely out for the season, while Holiday is expected to be sidelined for up to a month. Smith’s timeframe won’t be determined until after the procedure is done but the 7-footer is looking to return as quickly as possible, saying, “The quicker I get it taken care of, the quicker I can get back.”
•PREGAME NOTES: F Carl Landry made his season debut for Sacramento on Sunday, totaling six points in nine minutes after missing 39 games recovering from a torn hip flexor.... The Pelicans are expected to complete a trade with Brooklyn on Tuesday that would bring PG Tyshawn Taylor to New Orleans in exchange for a future draft choice.... With at least one 3-pointer in 33 consecutive games for the Kings, Thomas is within striking distance of Mitch Richmond’s franchise record of 39 in a row.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW ORLEANS covered the spread 487 times, while SACRAMENTO covered the spread 485 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, NEW ORLEANS won the game straight up 487 times, while SACRAMENTO won 485 times. In 1000 simulated games, 678 games went over the total, while 322 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO covered the first half line 485 times, while NEW ORLEANS covered the first half line 473 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 609 games went over first half total, while 391 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SACRAMENTO is 28-19 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--NEW ORLEANS is 24-24 straight up against SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--26 of 47 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SACRAMENTO is 28-19 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--24 of 48 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Kings are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Kings are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in New Orleans.
--Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in New Orleans.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Over is 10-2-1 in Kings last 13 Tuesday games.
--Over is 6-0 in Kings last 6 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Pelicans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--Pelicans are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Under is 3-0-1 in Pelicans last 4 home games.
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#507 PORTLAND @ #508 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, CSN Northwest Portland, FSN Oklahoma Oklahoma City - Line: Thunder -6, Total: 215.5) - Kevin Durant attempts to run his streak of consecutive 30-point outings to eight when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday in a battle of Western Conference heavyweights. Durant has been on a tremendous scoring spree this month, setting an NBA-season high with 54 points last Friday against Golden State and scoring 48 on two other occasions. Portland had won five straight games before falling to the Houston Rockets on Monday.
Trail Blazers forward Nicolas Batum reinjured his fractured left middle finger in the loss to the Rockets and said after the contest that he will probably need a new splint if he is to attempt to play against the Thunder. Forward LaMarcus Aldridge had 27 points and 20 rebounds for his third 20-20 outing of this season and fifth in his career. The Thunder will be gunning for Portland in this contest after losing the first two meetings this season; the two teams are tied for second place in the Western Conference, one game behind the San Antonio Spurs.
•ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (31-10 SU, 24-17-0 ATS): Guard Damian Lillard had 24 points in the loss to the Rockets and his 131 3-pointers are the most in history for a player through his team’s first 41 games. Ray Allen made 130 3-pointers in Boston’s first 41 games of the 2005-06 campaign. Lillard is a little bit more concerned with how Portland bounces back as the effort wasn’t always top-notch against Houston. “They were beating us to all the loose balls and they were playing free and easy and getting whatever they wanted,” Lillard said afterward.
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (31-10 SU, 23-18-0 ATS): While Durant has been carrying the offense, power forward Serge Ibaka scored 20 points on 9-of-13 shooting against Sacramento on Sunday. It was the third straight game in which Ibaka scored 20 or more and he is 27-of-37 shooting during the stretch. “He is a guy that excels off of playing everybody else,” Durant said of Ibaka. “He gives himself up by setting screens and rolls to the rim and the ball finds him. He sets great screens and moves the defense. He shifts the defense with his hard rolls to the basket and you have to respect his jumper.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Trail Blazers had lost seven straight games against the Thunder prior to this season’s two victories.... Aldridge is averaging 31.5 points and 13.5 rebounds against Oklahoma City this season.... Oklahoma City PG Reggie Jackson is averaging 17.5 points over the past four games and has reached double digits in eight of the last nine outings.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 559 times, while PORTLAND covered the spread 441 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 673 times, while PORTLAND won 311 times. In 1000 simulated games, 574 games went under the total, while 426 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 548 times, while PORTLAND covered the first half line 431 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 534 games went under first half total, while 424 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-33 against the spread versus PORTLAND since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-34 straight up against PORTLAND since 1996.
--37 of 68 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-32 versus the first half line when playing against PORTLAND since 1996.
--34 of 65 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Trail Blazers are 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 19-5-2 in the last 26 meetings in Oklahoma City.
--Favorite is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Trail Blazers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games.
--Over is 8-2 in Trail Blazers last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
--Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
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#509 MINNESOTA @ #510 UTAH
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, FSN North Minnesota, Root Sports Utah - Line: Timberwolves -3.5, Total: 202.5) - The Minnesota Timberwolves were in a downward spiral before running into the Utah Jazz on Saturday. They will look for a second straight easy win when they visit the Jazz for the back end of a home-and-home set on Tuesday. The Timberwolves held Utah to 23 first-half points in a 98-72 triumph at home on Saturday to snap a three-game slide.
The Jazz have traded wins and losses this month and capped off a 1-2 road trip with the disappointment against the Timberwolves. Alec Burks was the only player to reach double figures with 18 points in the contest while leading scorer Gordon Hayward missed his fifth straight game. “Right from the beginning we didn’t have any pep to us, didn’t have any energy,” coach Tyrone Corbin told reporters. “We settled for jump shots and they were going to the basket.”
•ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (19-21 SU, 21-19-0 ATS): Minnesota had allowed an average of 103 points during a three-game slide and was most impressed at its defensive effort against the Jazz. “We had good communication defensively,” coach Rick Adelman said. “You know, we were struggling offensively at the start but we were making stops and that got us going and we carried it through the first half.” Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic each recorded a double-double in the win on Saturday and had their way inside against Utah centers Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter with a 60-42 advantage on the glass.
•ABOUT THE JAZZ (14-28 SU, 19-21-2 ATS): Utah shot 28.8 percent from the field and committed 16 turnovers to wipe away the good feelings that came from a 110-89 victory at Detroit on Friday. The Jazz are still waiting for Hayward to get over a hip strain that has had him listed as day-to-day since a 37-point outburst against Oklahoma City on Jan. 7. Utah has been more effective at home with five wins in its last six games and will be kicking off a four-game homestand with the Timberwolves.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Jazz took both meetings at home last season by an average of 14.5 points.... Burks has scored at least 16 points in four of the last five games.... Minnesota G Kevin Martin is struggling to 3-for-15 from 3-point range in the last four games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the spread 553 times, while MINNESOTA covered the spread 447 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA won the game straight up 533 times, while UTAH won 441 times. In 1000 simulated games, 527 games went over the total, while 473 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the first half line 526 times, while MINNESOTA covered the first half line 439 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 483 games went under first half total, while 474 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UTAH is 33-32 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1996.
--UTAH is 41-26 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--37 of 66 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--MINNESOTA is 36-29 versus the first half line when playing against UTAH since 1996.
--40 of 65 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
--Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Utah.
--Over is 21-8-1 in the last 30 meetings.
--Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Utah.
--Favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
--Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
--Jazz are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
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