-74 units NBA
-30 Units College Baskets
4* #501 TORONTO over CLEVELAND ( and lang )
Toronto is flying far beneath the radar screens right now, despite a current 10-3 run in which none of the losses have come by more than seven points. That is what happens when you get off to a slow start, and the markets downgrade accordingly. But there were some prime reasons why the season began so poorly, and those early results now carry too much weight going forward, especially when we see tonight’s line reach double figures.The Raptors started with an awkward opening salvo that saw them play their first 30 games in only 53 days, a headache for a team breaking in so many new faces, and at the midway point their difficult of opposition rates #4 in the NBA. The following from Jay Triano deals with that well - "We knew it was going to be tough, we had nine new guys. Now we're starting to feel better about each other, we're starting to get it. We're starting to play better defence and our stats over the last few games have been good. We've adjusted, as coaches, our defensive philosophy a little bit and it's turning out better. We're playing more to our strengths, we have guys who are starting to get healthy. Here is the real key to that statement – it came before Toronto waxed Dallas 110-88 on Sunday in what might have been their best single game of the season, which takes the confidence to an even higher level. And with this game being only their third in eight days there is a physical energy to match that confidence – they are going to be a tough team to get a margin against in this setting.Not that Cleveland will be margin conscious anyway. The Cavaliers face the usual issues in returning home after a long Western Coast swing (this will be the first home game in 13 days), and tonight’s matchup is clouded even more because of that showdown vs. the Lakers looming on national television Thursday night. Their season is all about winning games for playoff positioning and managing the minutes of LeBron and the key cogs, and as such it is no surprise to find that they are 4-8 ATS when favored in double figures, a run that extends to 7-15 since the All Star break last February. Mike Brown would be more than happy to simply stamp a “W” and move on here, and given the current Toronto form that is all that his team is likely to get.
4* #506 GEORGIA TECH over CLEMSON
In what will be a high energy game in which both teams will run and press the length of the floor, PG play becomes the key factor in terms of dictating the game flow. And the markets have missed their mark in evaluating that key element.Despite a 13-4 record, and owning wins over Duke and North Carolina, Georgia Tech is not being rated properly because PG Iman Shumpert had to miss a half dozen games, one of them an O.T. loss to Florida State that would have likely been reversed had he played. Now he is back to full health, and in Saturday’s win at North Carolina showed what he is capable of, scoring 30 points and adding six assists, four rebounds and three steals. His veteran presence takes pressure off of those young talents on the roster, and makes the Yellow Jackets awfully difficult to match up against physically – not only is the front court among the most talented in the nation, but at 6-5 Shumpert creates particular problems at his position (from Paul Hewitt - ”He is bigger, stronger and faster than a lot of the other guards he is going to face, which forces them to contract on defense and makes it easier for us to run our offense.”).That becomes magnified tonight because we fully expect Shumpert’s direct matchup to be against 5-9 SO Andre Young, who will likely be making his first college start while Demontez Stitt sits out with a sprained foot. Stitt had been having an outstanding season, and was a catalyst for the Clemson uptempo tactics on both ends of the floor, but he went down with 13:37 to play and the Tigers up by 13 at N. C. State on Saturday, and his absence became an issue immediately – the lead was shaved all the way to a single point before they finally escaped. And while his official listing is “Questionable”, Oliver Purnell seems resigned to not having him around - ”“We’ve probably got to play a bit different offensively – ball ahead, more motion, more movement by everybody. It’s his slicing to the basket, it’s him pushing the ball that won’t be there.” Now a lot is being put in the hands of Young, who is also not 100 percent, having to receive at IV after practice yesterday because of a bout with a stomach virus. That exacerbates the size and experience that he already gives up against Shumpert, and with no one behind him that can carry the load there are going to be some awkward stretches against a tenacious Georgia Tech defense. Even if Stitt can make an appearance (he could only job on the sidelines at practice yesterday), he will be far from 100 percent.The Yellow Jackets are 7th in the nation in FG defense, allowing 37.0 percent, and in those key early A.C.C. wins they held Duke to 19 below the Blue Devil scoring average, and North Carolina to 12 below. That defense sets the tone here, and the Tigers lack the polish offensively to hang in for the full 40 minutes. With the marketplace now only asking for the home team to win the game, we have tremendous line value.
4* #518 ILLINOIS over PURDUE
We can understand part of the market
surge form Purdue -2.5 up to -4.5 here – it is not unusual to see such
play on a quality team off of a loss, especially with the Boilermakers
looking to many like a veteran side with Final Four potential. But we have
a different take on their current level and it gets us in play - what if
they simply are not that good?Here is the market perception – with Chris
Kramer, Keaton Grant, E’Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel and JaJuan Johnson now
having played together for several seasons, this is a savvy and
chemistry-rich team that can go to a special level. That is logical, but
there is a flaw in the thinking, and the flaw is that while the chemistry
really is there, there is not an NBA lottery pick in that group. As such
they may already be near their ceiling, and it is not quite a cathedral.
They are being projected to get better when there may not be all that much
upside remaining, and having lost PG Lewis Jackson back in mid-November
they are also precariously short on depth. So in reality the current 0-3
SU and ATS run in Big 10 play should not come as a shock, and the past two
seasons they are only 2-10 ATS on the conference road, with five outright
losses in the role of the favorite. In losing at home to Ohio State and on
the road at Northwestern last week they were out-rebounded by an ugly -15,
and the bench produced just seven points and seven rebounds in those two
defeats combined.You do not gat a margin on a court like this one without
the ability to control the boards and depth, and in fact Purdue may not
win this game at all. Illinois gives nothing away in terms of size or
quickness, and while the Illini did lose the battle of the boards in that
loss at Michigan State on Saturday, note how much of that flow was because
of foul trouble to Mike Tisdale (12.2 ppg and 6.1 rpg), who was 0-1 from
the field with only one rebound over 19 minutes. They bring plenty of
confidence to the table against this opponent, out-scoring Purdue by a +12
count over 125 head-to-head floor minutes LY, and we will call for them to
take this one to the final possession at worst, with a very live chance of
getting the outright upset