STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 1/14/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 1/14/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Tuesday's Notebook
•Western Michigan lost its last two visits to Ypsilanti in OT; they beat Eastern Michigan by 15 in LY's Mid American Conference Tournament - teams split last eight in series. Broncos won first two MAC games, winning in OT at Miami in last game- they're #7 in country at getting to foul line. MAC single digit home favorites are 1-5 versus spread. Eastern forces turnovers 20.7%, has blocked 16.3% of opponents' shots.
•Towson swept Drexel by total of four points LY, after losing previous seven games with Dragons, who won nine of last ten series games played here. Towson is 1-5 on road, winning by hoop at #300 Coppin State for only road win- they're 4th-worst team in US at forcing turnovers. CAA home favorites are 3-5 versus spread. Drexel beat Northeastern in double OT last game, just its second win in last six games.
•Florida will be without Prather here; they've won five of last six games versus Georgia, winning last ten here, with four of last five by 16+ points. Bulldogs allowed 61 ppg in winning first two SEC games, including win at Missouri- they lost other two road games, at Colorado by 14, by 18 at George Washington. Florida won last seven games, with three of those versus top 50 teams; they survived OT game at Arkansas Saturday, going 25-34 on line.
•16-0 Wisconsin allowed 51 ppg in winning its three true road games, by 3-10-27 at Green Bay/Virginia/Northwestern; Badgers won last 12 games with Indiana, winning last five here by 2-17-32-10-5 points- they also beat the Hoosiers in last two conference tourneys. Indiana won at Penn State by 3 after losing first two league games, losing to Michigan State here by 17, their only loss in ten home games this year.
•VCU forced 25 turnovers in 84-57 rout of George Washington LY in the first A-13 series meeting; Rams won last five games, all by 14+ points- they lead country, forcing turnovers 28.5% of time. Colonials split last four games but led URI 37-13 at half last game. VCU split its two true road games, winning by 3 at Virginia, losing at Northern Iowa. A-13 favorites are 6-0 versus spread in games with spread of 5 or less.
•St John's won its last eight games versus DePaul, winning last four visits to Chicago by 21-6-8-9 points; Red Storm is 0-3 in Big East, scoring 60.0 ppg in games at Xavier/Georgetown, its only true road games this year. St John's is 8-0 versus teams ranked outside top 125; DePaul is #130. Big East home underdogs are 2-5 versus spread. Blue Demons are 1-3 in league, winning in double OT at Butler after losing by 7-10-19 points.
•Kansas State won six of last nine games with Oklahoma, sweeping LY's games by 9-2 points; Sooners split last six visits here, losing by 11-15-9 points. K-State upset Oklahoma State in Big X opener, then split pair of road games- they won last nine home games, are forcing turnovers 20.6% of time. Oklahoma won its only true road game by 3 at Texas, then gave Iowa State its first loss Saturday- they're making 38.6% on arc (#39).
•Northern Iowa won nine of last 11 games with Southern Illinois- they're 3-2 in last five visits to SIU, winning by 8-12-4 points. Panthers are 4-1 in last five games, but 1-5 in true road games, winning at Evansville by 27 in last away game. Salukis lost four of last five games, losing by 15-6 in first two Valley home games- their best win is over #253 Loyola, IL. MVC home underdogs are 3-4-1 versus spread.
•Home side won last four Kentucky-Arkansas games; Wildcats lost last two visits here, by 1-13 points- they're 1-1 in true road games, winning by 9 at Vanderbilt, losing at UNC. Kentucky is #1 in US, rebounding 45.3% of its missed shots. Underdogs are 6-0-1 versus spread in SEC games where spread was 5 or less points. Razorbacks are 3-3 versus top 100 teams but lost first two SEC games, by 16-2 points.
•Butler is 0-4 in Big East, with three OT losses; they're 0-5 versus teams in top 75- best team they beat is #87 Princeton. Bulldogs are shooting 28% from arc in league play, opponents are making 57% inside arc. Creighton leads country in both 3's tried and percentage of 3's made, which is hard to do; Bluejays are 4-0 in Big East, with three wins by 13+. Big East favorites are 2-6 versus spread at home if they're giving more than six points.
•Pittsburgh won its first three ACC games by 12-20-15 points, winning by 12 at NC State, after trailing 17-2 early in only true road game of season so far. Panthers' eFG% defense is #28 in country- their last seven wins are all by 12+ points. ACC home favorites of 7+ points are 6-3 versus spread. Georgia Tech is 8-1 at home, losing by 10 to Dayton, Gregory's former team- they're 1-2 in ACC, losing road games by 16-22 points.
•Temple is off to 0-4 start in first AAC season, with three losses by 7 or less points; they've lost six of last seven games overall, are 0-3 in its true road games outside Philly, losing by 6-5-2 points. Cincinnati won eight games in row, allowing 52.8 ppg in 4-0 AAC start; Bearcats are #7 in US, forcing turnovers 24.8% of time; they hold teams to 39.9% inside arc. AAC home favorites are 4-6 against the spread.
•Boise State has whole team back from LY but is disappointing 1-2 in its league games, after losing Diamond Head final to Iowa State Christmas Day. Nevada is off to surprising 4-0 start in Mountain West, after 5-8 record in pre-conference games; Wolf Pack is 15-6 in its last 21 games versus Boise State, 8-2 in last 10 here (3-1 in last four, with wins by 14-8-16 points). Mountain West home underdogs are 7-3 against spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- GEORGIA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GEORGIA 67.9, OPPONENT 59.2.
-- GEORGE WASHINGTON is 21-4 UNDER (+16.6 Units) after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since 1997.
The average score was GEORGE WASHINGTON 68.5, OPPONENT 65.4.
-- WICHITA ST is 9-1 (+7.9 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WICHITA ST 36.9, OPPONENT 24.2.
-- E MICHIGAN is 22-4 UNDER (+17.6 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 22.5, OPPONENT 27.2.
-- MARK FOX is 14-4 (+9.6 Units) against the 1rst half line after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers as the coach of GEORGIA.
The average score was FOX 30.6, OPPONENT 25.7.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- BUTLER is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BUTLER 69.9, OPPONENT 66.1.
-- KANSAS ST is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KANSAS ST 65.2, OPPONENT 58.7.
-- BUTLER is 12-3 (+8.7 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BUTLER 31.4, OPPONENT 29.1.
-- E MICHIGAN is 20-2 UNDER (+17.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was E MICHIGAN 23.9, OPPONENT 27.8.
-- JOHN CALIPARI is 20-2 UNDER (+17.8 Units) versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=18 turnovers/game after 15+ games in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was CALIPARI 74.1, OPPONENT 67.0.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Road favorites versus the money line (WISCONSIN) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing <=12 turnovers/game, after a game committing 8 or less turnovers.
(94-22 since 1997.) (81.0%, +57.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -168
The average score in these games was: Team 69.5, Opponent 62.5 (Average point differential = +7)
The situation's record this season is: (9-4, -1.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (37-10, +17.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (70-13, +44.8 units).
-- Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA) - up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season, after a game making 13 or more 3 point shots.
(53-22 since 1997.) (70.7%, +28.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (69-10)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6
The average score in these games was: Team 81.4, Opponent 72.5 (Average point differential = +9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22 (27.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-7).
-- Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (WISCONSIN) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games.
(36-11 since 1997.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 134.7
The average score in these games was: Team 71.5, Opponent 71.2 (Total points scored = 142.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 25 (54.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
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Monday's Match-ups
#513 GEORGIA @ #514 FLORIDA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Florida -14.5, Total: 128) - Florida won its first two SEC games despite injuries to three of its top players and will be without leading scorer Casey Prather for a second straight contest when it hosts Georgia on Tuesday. Gators coach Billy Donovan said at Monday morning's press conference he didn't know how long the senior forward would be out because of a bone bruise on his right knee. Seventh-ranked Florida ended Arkansas' 23-game home winning streak with an 84-82 victory in overtime Saturday as senior point guard Scottie Wilbekin (ankle) and senior center Patric Young (knees) were at less than 100 percent, but they are expected to play Tuesday.
Georgia is off to its first 2-0 start in the SEC since the 2001-02 season following Saturday's 68-58 victory over Alabama as sophomore guards Kenny Gaines and Charles Mann continue to help the Bulldogs overcome the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the NBA. "What's important is the next game and that we continue to grow as competitors and grow as a team and that we go down there and give us a chance to win in Gainesville, Fla.," coach Mark Fox told reporters. Georgia must shoot better than the 32.6 percent it converted against the Crimson Tide if it is to upset Florida, which is No. 9 in the nation in scoring defense at 58.7 points per game.
•ABOUT GEORGIA (8-6 SU, 7-5-0 ATS, 2-0 SEC): Mann was named SEC Player of the Week on Monday after averaging 20 points in two games - including 22 against Alabama - and leads the Bulldogs in scoring at 14.1 points per contest. Gaines also scored 22 against the Crimson Tide and is second at 12.2 points. This is the first time that I've thought we've handled success fairly well, but now we have to keep moving forward and keep getting better because we can really improve as a team," Fox said.
•ABOUT FLORIDA (13-2 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 2-0 SEC): The Gators received a lift from sophomore Dorian Finney-Smith, who started in Prather's place against Arkansas and recorded career highs of 22 points and 15 rebounds. “We didn’t quit, we didn’t sulk. We stayed together and attacked,” Finney-Smith told Gatorzone.com. “Coach D told us to go out and play with confidence.... We battled and that says a lot about our team.” Wilbekin, who scored nine of Florida's 17 points in overtime after sending the game to an extra session on a jumper with two seconds left, averages 12.9 points - second to Prather's 17 - while leading the Gators in assists (3.7) and minutes (34.1).
•PREGAME NOTES: Florida is 6-2 in games decided by single digits after going 0-6 in such contests last season.... Georgia is 8-0 when outrebounding its opponent and 0-6 when it does not.... The Gators, who can set a school record with their 25th straight home victory Tuesday, have won 11 in a row at home against the Bulldogs and 17 of the last 20 overall meetings.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA covered the spread 521 times, while FLORIDA covered the spread 479 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, FLORIDA won the game straight up 844 times, while GEORGIA won 134 times. In 1000 simulated games, 739 games went over the total, while 261 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA covered the first half line 576 times, while FLORIDA covered the first half line 424 times. *EDGE against first half line =GEORGIA. In 1000 simulated games, 699 games went over first half total, while 269 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
The Gators had little trouble in their two matchups against the Bulldogs last season, winning 77-44 at home and 64-47 in Athens. Wilbekin, who has combined for 35 points in Florida's two conference games, totaled 25 in those matchups.
--FLORIDA is 21-12 against the spread versus GEORGIA since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 25-8 straight up against GEORGIA since 1997.
--11 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--FLORIDA is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against GEORGIA since 1997.
--12 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Florida.
--Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Florida.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UGA are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
--UGA are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. Southeastern.
--Under is 7-1 in UGA last 8 overall.
--FLA are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Southeastern.
--Under is 18-7-1 in FLA last 26 overall.
--Under is 8-2-1 in FLA last 11 vs. Southeastern.
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#515 WISCONSIN @ #516 INDIANA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Wisconsin -3.5, Total: 139) - Third-ranked Wisconsin puts its unbeaten record on the line when it attempts to defeat host Indiana for the 13th consecutive time Tuesday. The Badgers are off to the best start in school history and are one of three Big Ten teams to avoid a conference loss in the early part of the league schedule. The Hoosiers had to rally to defeat Penn State on Saturday to prevent opening Big Ten play with three straight defeats.
Indiana lost twice to Wisconsin last season – once in the regular season and again in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament. The Hoosiers are in transition mode after losing four senior starters off last season’s powerhouse team and will need a superb performance to knock off the Badgers, who can tie the program record for consecutive wins (2006-07) and are coming off last Saturday's dominating victory over Illinois. “I’m certainly proud of them,” coach Bo Ryan said. “But you start thinking about that too much and it can go the other way in a hurry.”
•ABOUT WISCONSIN (16-0 SU, 11-5-0 ATS, 3-0 Big Ten): Freshman forward Nigel Hayes is emerging as a potent force off the bench, averaging 13 points over the past five games. Hayes is averaging 6.8 points and shooting 52.3 percent from the field but he’s refusing to let the praise over his performance or that of the team go to his head. “There was a quote we were talking about – a John Wooden quote – of ‘Don’t get caught up in the praise or criticism,’” Hayes said after the win over Illinois. “So that is what we are trying to do right now. Don’t get too high on ourselves.”
•ABOUT INDIANA (11-5 SU, 7-7-1 ATS, 1-2 Big Ten): Little-used Austin Etherington was the hero against Penn State after he drained the go-ahead 3-pointer from the corner with 1:22 to play. The basket was only the fifth of the season for the sophomore forward averaging 1.9 points per game and Crean hopes it is the kind of moment that will propel Etherington’s confidence level skyward. “The fact that he went in and his confidence grew like it did to the point where he could knock down that shot in the corner was huge,” Crean said. “He grew up a lot and this week in the sense of he was on the court in really crucial situations.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Hoosiers are 0-3 against ranked opponents this season and have lost five straight starting with a 12-point loss to then-No. 22 Wisconsin on March 16.... The Badgers committed just four turnovers against Illinois and lead the nation in fewest per game at 8.2.... The Hoosiers have made 20 or more free throws in four of their last five games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN covered the spread 506 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 494 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN won the game straight up 588 times, while INDIANA won 384 times. In 1000 simulated games, 740 games went over the total, while 240 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, WISCONSIN covered the first half line 485 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 475 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 697 games went over first half total, while 263 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Indiana's last win against Wisconsin came on Jan. 31, 2007, in Bloomington. It was the last time the then-No. 2 Badgers carried a top-5 ranking into a meeting with the Hoosiers while Indiana was ranked in the top 5 in each meeting last season.
--WISCONSIN is 17-11 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 20-8 straight up against INDIANA since 1997.
--12 of 23 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WISCONSIN is 18-10 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1997.
--12 of 24 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Badgers are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
--Badgers are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Indiana.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Indiana.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WIS is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Under is 7-2 in WIS last 9 Tue. games.
--Under is 7-3 in WIS last 10 road games.
--IND is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--IND is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Under is 5-1 in IND last 6 Tuesday games.
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#527 BRADLEY @ #528 WICHITA ST
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN3 - Line: Wichita State -19, Total: 139) - After rallying from its largest deficit of the season to remain unbeaten, No. 5 Wichita State has to be feeling invincible heading into Tuesday's Missouri Valley Conference game against visiting Bradley. Described by coach Gregg Marshall as the first close game his team has had, the Shockers dug out of a 19-point hole to beat Missouri State 72-69 in overtime Saturday. "We've had some games where we made some plays down the stretch to win by five or whatever, but as far as a game really being in doubt, this is by far the toughest game we've had," Marshall told reporters.
Bradley also gave Missouri State a good battle recently before losing by three points, which could suggest these teams are not as far apart as their records. The Braves snapped a seven-game losing streak with a victory over Drake, but have since lost to Missouri State and Indiana State, also by three points. "I was proud of our kids, we really battled and I'm happy we did some good things," coach Geno Ford told the Peoria Journal Star after the game against Indiana State, which like Wichita State is 4-0 in conference. "At the same time, the result isn't what you're looking for, so you can't get too excited. But we are a lot better now than we were in December."
•ABOUT BRADLEY (6-11 SU, 3-10-1 ATS, 1-3 MVC): The Braves struggle in a lot of ways, in particular shooting and turnovers, where they rank in the bottom half of Division I with 13.3 per game. The shooting problems were there against Indiana State as the Braves made 34.9 percent of their field goals while holding the Sycamores to less than 40 percent. "When you go on the road and play a team this good, you don't have to be perfect," Ford told the Journal Star. "But you can't afford missed layups and missed free throws. When we needed to be up 10 to 12 in the first half because they weren't sharp early, we didn't take advantage of it."
•ABOUT WICHITA STATE (17-0 SU, 10-3-1 ATS, 4-0 MVC): The Shockers moved up to fifth in the Top 25, the highest they have been since ending last season as the fourth-ranked team. Cleanthony Early had 22 points and 15 rebounds against Missouri State and continues to lead the team in scoring (16.6) and rebounds (6.9) per game, while being complemented by the trio of Ron Baker (13.1 points), Fred VanVleet (12.2) and Tekele Cotton (9.9). "That's a hell of a team. They were ready for us," VanVleet told the Sporting News of Missouri State. "We gave them way too many open shots in the first half. That'll get you in an 18-point hole really quick. It took everything we had to sneak out of here with a win."
•PREGAME NOTES: The Shockers have won the last five meetings by an average of 24.8 points, but trail in the series 71-58.... The Braves last win at Koch Arena was in 2008.... Early, Baker and VanVleet have combined to shoot 83.6 percent from the foul line.... The Braves are 0-5 on the road, losing by an average of 16.2 points. The Shockers have outscored opponents by 16.8 points in 10 home wins.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST covered the spread 492 times, while BRADLEY covered the spread 476 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WICHITA ST won the game straight up 928 times, while BRADLEY won 67 times. In 1000 simulated games, 652 games went over the total, while 328 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, BRADLEY covered the first half line 580 times, while WICHITA ST covered the first half line 420 times. *EDGE against first half line =BRADLEY. In 1000 simulated games, 617 games went over first half total, while 339 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Bradley leads the all-time series with the Shockers by a count of 71-62, although Wichita State has won seven in a row. The Braves are set to close out their regular season home schedule against WSU on Feb. 25.
--WICHITA ST is 20-15 against the spread versus BRADLEY since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 21-14 straight up against BRADLEY since 1997.
--10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WICHITA ST is 21-14 versus the first half line when playing against BRADLEY since 1997.
--9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Braves are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Braves are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Wichita St.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Wichita St.
--Favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BRAD is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
--Under is 12-0 in BRAD last 12 overall.
--Under is 23-4 in BRAD last 27 road games.
--WICH is 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
--Under is 7-2 in WICH last 9 Tue. games.
--Under is 20-7 in WICH last 27 home games.
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#529 KENTUCKY @ #530 ARKANSAS
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Arkansas -1, Total: 155) - Kentucky’s latest group of fabulous freshmen seems to be coming together on the defensive end in four straight wins. The 16th-ranked Wildcats will try to make it five in a row when they play the second of back-to-back road games at Arkansas on Tuesday. Kentucky held its first two Southeastern Conference foes to an average of 62.5 points, helping to make up for some issues on the other end of the floor.
The Razorbacks dropped their first two in SEC play but proved they could break through a strong defense and hang with a ranked team in an 84-82 overtime loss to Florida on Saturday. Arkansas is especially potent offensively in its own building, where it is putting up an average of 94.3 points in the last four games. The Wildcats are second in the SEC in scoring offense behind the Razorbacks but have a big advantage on the inside with Julius Randle.
•ABOUT KENTUCKY (12-3 SU, 6-5-2 ATS, 2-0 SEC): The Wildcats lead the SEC in rebounding offense thanks in large part to Randle, who averages a double-double at 16.7 points and 10.9 rebounds. The freshman forward failed to reach double figures in scoring in either of the first two SEC games but averaged 12.5 rebounds despite constant attention from the opposition. “You have to understand, he’s in a dogfight.” coach John Calipari told reporters of Randle. “I think right now that he’s the only college player that when he catches the ball, he’s got three guys on him.”
•ABOUT ARKANSAS (11-4 SU, 7-5-0 ATS, 0-2 SEC): The Razorbacks have their own freshman starting forward in Bobby Portis, who will likely combine with Coty Clarke to handle the defense on Randle. Arkansas will not be afraid to run with the Wildcats and let a trio of starting guards lead the offense. Rashad Madden scored a career-best 23 points against Florida on Saturday but sits third on the team in scoring (11.2) behind fellow guard Michael Qualls (12.7 points) and Portis (12.5) in a balanced attack. The Razorbacks lead the SEC in assists (16.7) despite not having a single player average more than Clarke’s 2.2.
•PREGAME NOTES: Qualls is just 6-for-33 from the field over the last three games.... These are the conference's top scoring teams and top shooting ones. Arkansas ranks first in those categories at 84.5 points per game with a 47.6 shooting percentage while Kentucky is averaging 80.5 points and shooting 47.5 percent.... The Razorbacks lead the SEC with a plus-6.33 turnover margin.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARKANSAS covered the spread 570 times, while KENTUCKY covered the spread 406 times. *EDGE against the spread =ARKANSAS. In 1000 simulated games, ARKANSAS won the game straight up 594 times, while KENTUCKY won 380 times. In 1000 simulated games, 543 games went under the total, while 428 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARKANSAS covered the first half line 579 times, while KENTUCKY covered the first half line 421 times. *EDGE against first half line =ARKANSAS. In 1000 simulated games, 497 games went under first half total, while 463 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Kentucky has dropped its last two visits to Bud Walton Arena, falling 73-60 on March 2 last season even though Cauley-Stein was a factor inside with 13 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks.
--KENTUCKY is 11-9 against the spread versus ARKANSAS since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 15-5 straight up against ARKANSAS since 1997.
--9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ARKANSAS is 11-9 versus the first half line when playing against KENTUCKY since 1997.
--10 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Arkansas.
--Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UK is 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
--Under is 20-8-1 in UK last 29 road games.
--Under is 16-7-3 in UK last 26 Tue. games.
--ARK is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.
--ARK is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Southeastern.
--Over is 10-4 in ARK last 14 overall.
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#531 BUTLER @ #532 CREIGHTON
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Creighton -10.5, Total: 139) - When talking about the hottest team in the country, No. 19 Creighton would have to be one of the candidates with the Bluejays riding a nine-game winning streak into Tuesday's home matchup with Butler. The Bulldogs have been getting the short end of it lately, starting 0-4 in league play, with three of those four losses coming in overtime, including a double-overtime affair against DePaul, and by a total of 22 points.
Creighton coach Greg McDermott knows better than to look past Butler despite its current losing skid, simply because the Bluejays were once overlooked so much as well. It's one thing that's made the Bluejays so successful over the past few seasons, that they seem to take every opponent seriously, no matter how dismal their record may be. And McDermott certainly knows that Butler is a sleeping giant, capable of playing with — and beating — anyone in the country on any given night.
•ABOUT BUTLER (10-6 SU, 8-6-0 ATS, 0-4 Big East): It's not easy as a coach, knowing your team is playing well enough to win but continues to come up just short. For first-year Butler coach Brandon Miller, it's not a matter of executing something different or giving more effort for his players during the current four-game losing streak but rather just a matter of getting the ball to bounce their way. “As a competitor, and as a coach, losses wear on you, they eat at you. You have a sick feeling in your stomach,” Miller told the Indianapolis Star. “To be in games we're giving ourselves a shot to win, and for us not to come out on top, it's tough.”
•ABOUT CREIGHTON (14-2 SU, 10-4-0 ATS, 4-0 Big East): The Bluejays feel good about their unbeaten conference record, especially getting a win over nationally ranked Xavier without injured guard Grant Gibbs, who is out at least a month with a dislocated kneecap. In its first game without Gibbs, Creighton looked rattled early, falling behind by 12, but McDermott was excited how his team responded to adversity even without its floor leader. “I'm proud of my team for its ability to not get rattled,” McDermott told the Omaha World-Herald. “They just forged forward, and we started getting better movement on the offensive end.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Butler's current four-game losing streak is its longest since the 2004-05 season.... Creighton has won 100 straight home games when scoring 78 or more points.... Bulldogs freshman F Andrew Chrabascz has set a new career high in each of Butler's last three games, capped by a 14-point effort in the most recent loss, to Georgetown.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON covered the spread 636 times, while BUTLER covered the spread 364 times. *EDGE against the spread =CREIGHTON. In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON won the game straight up 859 times, while BUTLER won 128 times. In 1000 simulated games, 840 games went over the total, while 132 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, CREIGHTON covered the first half line 519 times, while BUTLER covered the first half line 441 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 775 games went over first half total, while 197 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
The Bluejays hold a slim all-time series lead against Butler, 4-3, but have won the last three meetings between the two programs. The last win for Butler in the series came in February of 1934.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BUT is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
--BUT is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big East.
--Over is 7-0 in BUT last 7 vs. Big East.
--CRE is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
--CRE is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
--Under is 21-10-1 in CRE last 32 overall.
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#533 PITTSBURGH @ #534 GEORGIA TECH
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPNU - Line: Pittsburgh -7.5, Total: 131) - The ACC traditionally has produced national championship-caliber competition, and while nobody is printing Final Four T-shirts in Pittsburgh just yet, the No. 21 Panthers to this point have looked more and more like a potential March powerhouse. But the Panthers, who bring a five-game winning streak into Tuesday’s trip to Georgia Tech, will play the rest of the season without forward Durand Johnson, who suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament and meniscus injury in his right knee Saturday. Georgia Tech dropped its first two conference games before breaking through against Notre Dame on Saturday.
The Yellow Jackets’ inconsistent play has been marked by the ups and downs of senior Trae Golden, Georgia Tech’s leading scorer who finished with 20 points (and the go-ahead 3-pointer) against the Fighting Irish after scoring 18 points combined in his first two conference contests. The Yellow Jackets are 8-1 at home this season, but face arguably their toughest home game to date against a Panthers’ squad that fell two points shy against Cincinnati of being undefeated. Lamar Patterson leads the ACC in field-goal percentage and is sixth in scoring and assists, pacing a Pittsburgh offense that averages 77.1 points per contest.
•ABOUT PITTSBURGH (15-1 SU, 5-8-0 ATS, 3-0 ACC): The immediate goal for the Panthers is to replace the production from Johnson, who averaged 8.8 points while ranking second on the team in made 3-pointers with 22. Patterson has scored 20 or more points in three of his past five games, and averages 17.9 points and 4.5 assists for the season while hitting 53.5 percent of his shots. The Panthers have scored 74 or more points in each of their first three ACC contests, and have surrendered 70 or more points once while not allowing more than 65 points in its past six contests.
•ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (10-6 SU, 4-6-0 ATS, 1-2 ACC): Chris Bolden gave the Yellow Jackets a huge boost off the bench Saturday, hitting 4-of-8 from 3-point range after going 8-for-33 from long range in his first 12 games. Georgia Tech needs center Daniel Miller to build off his strong showing Saturday (10 points, 13 rebounds, four blocked shots), especially with forward Robert Carter Jr. out for the season with a knee injury. The Yellow Jackets have outrebounded opponents in 15 of their 16 games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Patterson has made 15 of the 3-pointers converted by Pittsburgh in the past seven games.... The Yellow Jackets are 13-for-26 from the free-throw line in their past two games, going 0-for-6 in a loss at Duke on Tuesday.... Georgia Tech is 5-0 all-time against Pittsburgh, including a two-game sweep of the Panthers in a 24-day span of December 1989, the last meetings between the two teams.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH covered the spread 522 times, while GEORGIA TECH covered the spread 478 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PITTSBURGH won the game straight up 731 times, while GEORGIA TECH won 237 times. In 1000 simulated games, 738 games went over the total, while 238 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA TECH covered the first half line 492 times, while PITTSBURGH covered the first half line 464 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 689 games went over first half total, while 273 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
The Yellow Jackets have a perfect 5-0 all-time series lead against the Panthers. The last time these two teams met was back in 1989.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PITT is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--PITT is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
--Over is 8-2 in PITT last 10 overall.
--GT is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Tue. games.
--GT is 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. win.
--Under is 4-0 in GT last 4 Tuesday games.
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#535 TEMPLE @ #536 CINCINNATI
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: Cincinnati -14.5, Total: 134) - With eight straight wins overall, 14 in a row at home and sitting at 4-0 in conference play for the first time since 2003-04, Cincinnati looks to continue its torrid run when American Athletic Conference rival Temple visits Tuesday. The Bearcats squashed Rutgers last time out after a halftime adjustment on defense. "(Rutgers) had all week to prepare for the press," coach Mick Cronin told the Cincinnati Enquirer. "We should have just started off full-court man and been solid."
Temple has dropped four in a row and is 1-6 since a 4-3 start after a 79-69 loss to Memphis on Saturday. The Owls saw their early second-half lead evaporate quickly as the Tigers got hot from long range and outworked Temple on the boards. "Offensive rebounds by the opposition hurt us," coach Fran Dunphy said to the Philadelphia Inquirer, adding, "We didn't get out quick enough (to defend 3-pointers)."
•ABOUT TEMPLE (5-9 SU, 5-7-0 ATS, 0-4 AAC): Rebounding has been an issue all season for the Owls, who are last in the conference in rebounding defense (40.5) and rebounding margin (minus-3.9), despite an AAC-best 9.4 boards per game from Anthony Lee. Dalton Pepper is Temple's leading scorer, averaging 17.2 points, while Will Cummings adds 16.1 points and a team-high 4.1 assists. Lee contributes 13.9 points to give the Owls four players with double-figure scoring averages.
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (15-2 SU, 8-3-0 ATS, 4-0 AAC): Freshman guard Troy Caupain was a key contributor in the Bearcats' most recent success, scoring 14 points as AAC leading scorer Sean Kilpatrick struggled at 3-of-13 from the field. "He's still got to learn to take care of the ball a little better," Cronin said of Caupain, who committed four turnovers, "but he hit some big shots." Caupain is averaging 7.2 points, while Kilpatrick's 18.4 points pace the Cincinnati offense and Justin Jackson adds 11.5 to go with a team-high 7.5 rebounds.
•PREGAME NOTES: The win over Rutgers made Cronin the third Cincinnati coach to reach 150 wins with the program, joining George Smith (154) and Bob Huggins (399).... Temple is tied for third in the AAC with UCF, scoring 77.5 points per game but its scoring defense is last, allowing opponents an average of 75.9 points.... The Bearcats are off to their best start in conference play since a 6-0 run to kick off its Conference USA schedule in 2002-03.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the spread 531 times, while CINCINNATI covered the spread 469 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI won the game straight up 849 times, while TEMPLE won 146 times. In 1000 simulated games, 689 games went over the total, while 289 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the first half line 598 times, while CINCINNATI covered the first half line 402 times. *EDGE against first half line =TEMPLE. In 1000 simulated games, 679 games went over first half total, while 321 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Cincinnati holds the advantage in the all-time series between these two programs, 14-6. Temple and Cincinnati will meet again later this month in Philadelphia on Jan. 26.
--TEMPLE is 2-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI since 1997.
--TEMPLE is 2-1 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--TEMPLE is 3-0 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEM is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
--TEM is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--Under is 7-1 in TEM last 8 road games.
--CIN is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games.
--Under is 43-12 in CIN last 55 overall.
--Under is 38-14 in CIN last 52 home games.
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